Maher's Digital World

Here is a new topic to talk about financial markets. Feel free to post messages.

I'm going to talk about the BSE Sensex, the index of Bombay in India, maybe my opinion can interest those who come from Asia and it seems they are numerous on the forum.
Here is a chart.
(https://i.ibb.co/fv2d0bY/394659sensex.png)

Today there has been a sharp decline, the Sensex losing 555 points, as disappointing corporate earnings seems to be keeping investors nervous. The Sensex lost 1,160 points in the last four trading sessions as foreign funds turned to heavy selling in frontline stocks as more FPIs received notices from tax authorities on minimum alternative tax (MAT).

Personally I think that there could be a bubble in Asia. I read that Chinese people not able to read were opening accounts to buy stocks...There is euphoria, but valuations are becoming tight.
The graph of the Sensex is also showing some signs of bubble. So the correction could continue if corporate earnings are bad. I don't know if there is a bubble in India but while it was standing between 16000 and 18000 in 2012 and 2013, it's now standing at 27000...
Clearly, I think that the American markets are expensive. There are political problems in Europe, and a bubble in China.
I think caution is needed and I'm expecting a fall of several markets sometime during the second half of 2015.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/31/chinas-stock-market-sure-looks-like-a-bubble/

Today, I'm going to make a speech, giving you a few elements since I'm not the only one predicting an upcoming crash.
The upward revisions of European growth should not hide uncertainties. In case of crash, public authorities (governments and central banks) have already played their last cards. Economist Marc Touati predicted that The world economy is going to collapse.

(http://i.f1g.fr/media/ext/orig/www.lefigaro.fr/medias/2013/05/30/PHO7ec81e1a-c93c-11e2-ae6b-19b6609108d6-805x453.jpg)

For now, all is well! Everything's even better, according to some. And for good reason: according to the IMF, the ECB and many economic research institutes, the European Commission raised its growth forecasts for the euro-zone and for France in 2015. Beautiful!

But then, as we have often shown, consensus is very often wrong. That’s when everyone thinks the same thing that we should begin to worry. And that, especially when the forecasts of the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission are converging. It would be useful, for example, to recall that in 2007 and early 2008, these three institutions stressed that Euroland's economy was doing wonders and provided steady growth for 2008-2009, accompanied by high inflation. This is also partly because of this announced dynamism that the ECB raised its key interest rates in late 2007 and until July 2008. Better, in most of its reports since 2006, the European Commission and the IMF kept praising the economic success of Spain, Portugal and Greece!

Obviously, it would be difficult to do worse. That is what happened when in 2011 these institutions announced the strong upturn in growth in the euro area, the ECB even matching words with action by increasing twice its refi rate. If the past is dead and does not serve much of rubbing salt in a still open wound, these forecast errors nonetheless recall that the newest results of the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission must be taken very carefully.
The latest survey data, including purchasing managers’ indexes, the IFO institute, INSEE, but also the European Commission, are also clear: business outlook is already down. Consequently, After good growth through the first quarters, a marked slowdown or even a decline of the GDP is expected to occur in the euro area and in particular in France in the second quarter.

But that's not all, because if investors and the economic and financial world as a whole are accustomed to economic weakness in the euro area, they are frightened by the looming slowdown in the US and China. In this context, and as has already begun for ten days, financial markets could experience multiple storms, preceding a crash that would break out by next fall.

Today the European stocks exchanges are crumbling again, after a fall yesterday.
With the rise in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro/dollar, I think this movement is likely to continue.
My targets are bearish and very clear: 13000 for the dow jones, 8000 for the dax and 3500 for the cac40.
http://www.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

Quote from: scarface on May 14, 2015, 10:20 AM
Today the European stocks exchanges are crumbling again, after a fall yesterday.
With the rise in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro/dollar, I think this movement is likely to continue.
My targets are bearish and very clear: 13000 for the dow jones, 8000 for the dax and 3500 for the cac40.
http://www.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

Don' forget that a few years ago Delamarche had a target at 2000 for the cac40.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnL3_kj9EI
(http://www.lecontrarien.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/olivier-delamarche.jpg)

I have a lot of money put into stocks. Is the best thing just to put the money into a savings account instead?

QuoteI have a lot of money put into stocks. Is the best thing just to put the money into a savings account instead?

It depends if you have gains or not. It also depends on the markets. A quick look at the SSE shows a 20% increase over one year.
(https://i.ibb.co/LRWLJhL/634826omx.png)
Personally I think would be wise to sell, at least some of them if not all.
The uptrend in global equities has been mainly due to liquidity injections, but on the other side, I'm rather pessimistic on the world economy and the rise in oil prices and the rate increase could be a harbinger for a significant correction in the months to come.
Well today Ive been wrong since the markets closed higher, but the news about Greece or the slowdown of the US economy remains disquieting.

The party started: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/15/greece-pays-public-sector-wages-economic-crisis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11608333/Greece-avoids-domestic-default-as-cash-scramble-gets-desperate.html

There is no consensus of the public opinion as to what reforms must be made. The political leadership of the country is struggling to find a politically viable solution, with no success so far. Cash outflow from banks rises. The elite is unwilling to leave the eurozone but on the same time too many people (3.5 million + their families) are unwilling to accept the imposed reforms. A chaotic scenario is quietly unfolding.

On a side note, Turkish helicopters and planes are increasingly violating the Greek airspace over the Aegean. This might be an additional source of trouble in case of a financial collapse; geopolitical destabilization of the entire area is very likely. Thus I believe there will be a serious turmoil in the short run, which might become important even on a global scale.

Getting ready to default... We have some T-bills to pay up as well on June 12th... Let's remember: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/24/greek-debts-what-does-it-owe-when-will-the-money-run-out
No one talks about it. Last time we took money from Greek embassies to stay afloat. Now what? It will take at least 2 weeks to reach a deal with creditors to pay up our older debts.

Today this happened:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/05/business/international/greece-debt-talks-ecb-imf-european-commission.html?_r=0

Unsurprisingly (at least for me), the Greek PM chose not to pay the IMF at this moment. We're running out of money here. I'm not so well informed to predict an exact default date, however.

In the meanwhile, most Greek people are confident that "a credit event will not happen, they won't let it happen". At the same time, the political leadership is obsessed with maintaining pensions and salaries of the official sector at a rather high level, and insists to stress the economy with high taxes. Everyone has become absurd here.

Staying in the eurosystem has not been viable for Greece since 2010. It was forced to stay so that other European banks could get rid of greek assets. Now that most of them are protected enough, they will not care about a default at all.

Don't expect any politician to save the greek economy. They are all corrupt and incapable of handling such a situation. Moreover, we Greeks have a tendency to fight against each other for any reason you can think, and in the case of default, it will be impossible to agree on what to do next.

PS @scarface Interested in your latest ISO.

For Greece, let's hope there will be a miracle.

For the iso, lets wait for next tuesday.
As I said I also integrated every c++ redistributable packs. They are often needed. Maher might be interested for his iso.
I will also provide the forum with a vb script, which is activating microsoft update (instead of wu) automatically after a double click. Unfortunately, I found no way to integrate it.

At the moment, we have seen that the stocks markets continue to be unsettled during this turbulent period. Indeed, there still is a stalemate about the Greek issue, there has been no agreement between Tsipras and his creditros, and a Grexit becomes possible. What's more, the long-term bond yields in Europe have increased quickly, and they represent a sword of Damocles for growth.

The impact of a Grexit on the markets would be probably significant. During an interview between the trader Olivier Delamarche and the manager Malik Haddouk, the latter is explaing that it would provoke a massive withdrawal of investments, and the decrease of the European markets could reach 20%.
http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/video/olivier-delamarche-vs-malik-haddouk-22-quel-serait-l-impact-d-un-grexit-sur-l-union-europeenne-0806-549683.html

However, Woud a Grexit be a bad thing, while 52% of Greeks are in favour of a exiting the euro? Clearly, it could be an advantageous alternative for Greece, since a devalued currency would boost tourism, one of the only profitable sectors in Greece.

(https://i.ibb.co/NCN9xPD/Athens-03.jpg)

Thanks for the upload scarface. I'll test it when I have some free time.

Ready for grexit. Negotiations in Brussels failed tonight. This Monday will be most stressful for Greek banks. Unless the goverment decides to impose capital controls (they don't want to do it at all) there will be a bank failure in the next days.

Harkaz is right, time is running out for Greece, and Im afraid there might be no good solution.
The trend is still bearish on the financial markets. I have an objective situated at 10800 on the dax, but it could go much lower, depending on the future events.

There was a traffic jam this morning at the porte d'Asnières. There were so many motorcycles that they were using the sidewalk to sneak in. Paris is not really the garden of Eden where you would like to be. Probably harkaz is better off in Greece, swimming off the coast of Athens
(http://i.imgur.com/gyR3OKa.jpg)

Harkaz warned us about Greece's bailout stalemate on Sunday evening.
What's more, Italian and Spanish bonds dropped today, pushing the extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year securities over German debt to the most since October.
(http://assets.bwbx.io/images/ijrkKQxCegF0/v1/-1x-1.png)

Consequently we have seen stocks crumbling in Europe, the dax losing 1.89% and the Athens stocks exchange plummeting by 4.68%.

In a way Greek governments are responsible for the situation that exists over there.  It seems they don't understand the basic notion that you cannot make 1â,¬ and spend 2â,¬. Now they have to bite the bullet. Seems to me that country needs surgery without anesthesia.

Quote from: humbert on June 16, 2015, 05:47 AM
In a way Greek governments are responsible for the situation that exists over there.  It seems they don't understand the basic notion that you cannot make 1â,¬ and spend 2â,¬. Now they have to bite the bullet. Seems to me that country needs surgery without anesthesia.

At this moment, Greece is required to make 2â,¬ and pay 1â,¬ to the creditors. The ideal for the economy would be low primary surplus targets over a great period of time.
Anyway, the name of the surgery is already known: Ukraine II

@humbert

The Greek crisis started, as you know, in 2010, when George Papandreou's government decided to sign a loan agreement with EU member states, ECB and the IMF. Greece was unable to honor its debt commitments. Papandreou was forced to sign to protect the eurosystem (including Greek banks of course) from failure. He decided to turn the great primary deficit of about 13% GDP to a primary surplus.  He said that Greece would be back in the markets by 2012. Many Greeks regarded -and still regard- Papandreou as a traitor, because he allegedly increased the deficit on purpose, in coordination with EUROSTAT and he bailed out the insolvent Greek banks, giving the elite enough time to withdraw their money abroad, while the Greek economy was collapsing. When Papandreou decided to organise a referendum about a greek exit from the Eurozone, his government was overthrown.
Then Loukas Papadhmos organised the PSI, and the EFSF took full control of the Greek debt. Grexit speculation was extremely high in summer 2012, when Antonis Samaras was elected as PM. He tried to stabilize the economy and until 2014 it seemed that he controlled the situation. He gradually reduced pensions and wages but he was unwilling to reform the official sector. He created a "false surplus" by imposing high taxes. He is particularly hated for his ENFIA law (tax on real state) which made real estate value drop by 40%. He failed to reach a deal with creditors and he was overthrown by SYRIZA. SYRIZA came to power as a semi-communist, anti-austerity party which promised increases in official sector wages and decreasing unemployment by employing more people in the official sector. They also promised to tear the memorandum of understanding and restore everything in '2010 state' (All of these could be done in the Eurosystem of course, they promised, because creditors "couldn't reject their proposals").

In these 5 years GDP has fallen by more than 25% and 130 billion â,¬ of deposits flew away from Greek banks. No structural reforms have been made and corruption remains huge. Unemployment is rather high (over 25%), but young people can *still* stay afloat with the pensions and salaries of their parents and grandparents. More and more Greek companies are closed due to high debts.

The pro-EU/anti-EU percentage ratio is about 65/35 at this monent. If there is a deal between creditors and Greece for an extension of the current program until November (unlikely) I estimate this ratio will almost become 50/50 by then, and civil unrest will be likely enough. It is imperative to reduce the tax load and start real reforms, now or never. OSI is required.

And this helps me explain why I believe Greece will become Ukraine II. The former Ukrainian president was overthrown by CIA-supported "protestors" who revolted when he decided to abandon the country's EU integration path. The Ukrainian citizens who were against the entry to EU revolted as well against the protestors. A civil war started. Putin decided to annex Crimea to protect Russia's military interests in the Black Sea. NATO and EU found this as an excuse to start a new "Cold war era".

Similarily, Greece is a NATO and EU member with great financial and geopolitical problems. When a leftist government decides to demand a 'status quo' change in Europe and many Greek people (for various reasons) are thinking of Grexit as an opportunity, Putin decides to support the government. This could also cause a civil unrest/war situation. I think a better term would be RUkraine - Reverse Ukraine, because the Ukrainian crisis was triggered when the country tried to enter the EU, while Greek crisis will be triggered when it tries to exit the EU.

A historic Der Spiegel cover in my opinion:

(http://www.thetoc.gr/images/articles/2/article_74469/upl5584435a92adb.png)

Three days before the final chance to avoid capital controls and civil unrest in Greece.

@Harkaz - Thanks so much for your explanation. I screen captured it so I could read it calmly and get a good idea of what's happening. Let me ask you this - these people who are against austerity, how do they expect the government to lower taxes and continue paying benefits as if nothing were happening? Do they think money grows on trees or what?

As for Ukraine, even if Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk got into power with help from the CIA, how does this give Russia the right to annex Crimea or support armed rebellion in the country's east? Besides, with all the land Russia has, what do they want with Crimea unless it's just to cause trouble?

@Scarface - regarding studios and other Paris living spaces, it seems to me the market dictates the price. Accordingly, if these places become so expensive that no one can afford them, then the price has to come down or the seller will be stuck with them forever. Do you agree?

@humbert

Quote from: humbert on June 21, 2015, 06:24 AM
@Harkaz - Thanks so much for your explanation. I screen captured it so I could read it calmly and get a good idea of what's happening. Let me ask you this - these people who are against austerity, how do they expect the government to lower taxes and continue paying benefits as if nothing were happening? Do they think money grows on trees or what?

As for Ukraine, even if Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk got into power with help from the CIA, how does this give Russia the right to annex Crimea or support armed rebellion in the country's east? Besides, with all the land Russia has, what do they want with Crimea unless it's just to cause trouble?

People against austerity working in the official sector are often anything but productive. Some of them have not even gone to university, but have been receiving rather high salaries for political reasons.
Moreover, many young people are NOT willing/available to support the real economy. Most of them prefer to stay afloat with money from their grandparent's pensions than trying to innovate and make their own money, so they can be financially independent. On the other hand, the private sector has become completely dependent on the official sector, via various provisions. Many companies are closed, not because of austerity but due to bad management. Corruption and parasitism are common in Greek society. This explains why unemployment stays that high for such a long period of time. This situation shifts the load to more productive people who cannot lift all of it. For these reasons, anti-austerity has become very popular among Greek people.
In the meanwhile, an mounting demographic issue threatens to kill the Greek society completely. Even more young people are fleeing abroad and usually they're the most productive and talented. Greece is effectively in 'self-destruct' mode.
A Grexit is regarded by some people as a fresh start that could solve the problem. Indeed a primary surplus +3.5% (required by the current program) is not feasible for a country like that.

About Ukraine, Russia has a naval base in Crimea. Since the locals accepted their annexation by the Russian federation via referendum, there is no real reason to start a cold war about it. The civil war in Ukraine wouldn't be caused if the US government didn't interfere too much in the area. There are MANY people in Ukraine whose parents are Russians and they wouldn't accept a forced entry to the EU/NATO at all. I believe that both sides are responsible for the situation. And the issue won't be resolved any time soon.

That's a very interesting explanation of what's going on in Ukraine. It's important to get feedback from informed guys like you. The news media is very unreliable and biased - on both sides! The only part of your explanation I have a hard time believing is the possibility of WW3. The MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) concept is precisely what prevented this during the tense years of the cold war, and is very much still in effect. Tensions that exist today can't possibly be compared to how it was before the USSR collapsed.

I still don't understand why Russia is so afraid of NATO expanding eastward. Another Operation Barbarossa is out of the question, and so is nuclear war. What are they afraid of?

Harkaz's explanation regarding those who oppose austerity still lacks an answer to a fundamental question - with the country bankrupt and in financial default, how do you fund the benefits they'd miss if austerity were imposed? I guess only way is to return to the Drachma, and then print enough Drachmas to pay everybody. The only problem with this is Greece will be just like 1920's pre-Hitler Germany where inflation was out of control. Sadly we all know what happened afterwards.

There is no way to avoid cutting expenses. However, the Grexit economy will not be required to have a surplus for a long period of time as it happens now in Euro-> taxes could be very low and real economy would begin to sprout. In addition, necessary reforms will be made - forcibly, because Greece has huge problems with its productivity.

The current deal will kill the Greek economy. Social unrest did not start yesterday but it will start sooner or later. This happened in Argentina as well with another leftist government before its 2001 default. Mr Tsipras is nothing more than an incompetent and coward, afraid of the geopolitical risks a Grexit would ensue. A path which, in the end of the day, will be inevitable due to the violent reaction of the deprived Greek people.

As harkaz said, the situation in Greece is a bit confused, and tonight the summit ended with nothing new.
It's difficult to know what's going to happen.
In the meantime, the Greeks are emptying their account...and it's a catastrophe for the Greek banks.
(http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/6560444-3x2-940x627.jpg)

@Harkaz - Then it is your opinion that the only viable way is a Grexit due to the fact that agreeing to the EU's terms will cause undue hardship on the Greek people. What happens to the debt(s)? Greece will not pay, or will they pay back on their own terms?

@Fuj - When NATO was established as a military alliance in 1949, the target was the Soviet Union and it's satellite states (i.e., Communism). From 1989 to 1991 NATO's mortal enemy essentially self-destructed. It seems that Putin - a KGB man - wants to return to those days prior to 1989 and essentially reverse everything Yeltsin did. How many rights and freedoms has he curtailed in Russia itself? There is no question he killed Boris Nemtsov, and he'll so the same to anyone who stands in his way.

No matter how advanced technology becomes, the MAD concept will still be there. Last I heard the USA could destroy the entire planet 34 times over, and Russia about half that many times. There are too many missiles and only a few have to get through to produce a nuclear holocaust. In your post you forgot to mention submarine based missiles. One submarine alone could do it all. Had this not been the case, WW3 would have happened long ago. This situation makes WW3 impossible - would be no winners, only losers.

@humbert Greece is unable to pay up its debt. This very clear to me at least. We could reach a compromise with creditors after hard and long negotiations as to how much money we'll pay and when, depending on Greek economy performance. For Greece to start paying, however, a stabilization of the economy is required.

There are some financial analysts here in Greece who argue that the MFAFA itself is not legal according to international Law. I'm not an expert on the subject but since Greek government accepted the 2010 loan agreement with a full loss of its immunity as a sovereign state and a loss of other immunities as well (ie. creditors can confiscate everything they want in Greek territory in case of default), it's quite possible.

Of course this means that all PMs/Ministers/Bank Governors who signed the MFAFAs or their amendments should be prosecuted for high treason. There is a clear financial benefit for them from signing that loan agreement: they transferred their money abroad, which would otherwise be lost (Greek banks would fail).

Based on what you're telling us it seems the most viable, if not the only solution is a Grexit. Greece would pay loans back on their own terms. OK.

You mentioned Papandreou signed a paper saying creditors had the right to confiscate assets located in Greek territory. How do they intend to do this without a full fledged military invasion? Imagine Angela Merkel raising the German flag over the Parthenon!

Quote from: humbert on June 26, 2015, 05:45 AM
Based on what you're telling us it seems the most viable, if not the only solution is a Grexit. Greece would pay loans back on their own terms. OK.

You mentioned Papandreou signed a paper saying creditors had the right to confiscate assets located in Greek territory. How do they intend to do this without a full fledged military invasion? Imagine Angela Merkel raising the German flag over the Parthenon!

This seems improbable indeed, but given how fuc*ing desperate the greek elite is about staying in the Eurozone, who knows what they'll be willing to agree to after a potential default just to remain in the eurozone...

Greek elite is nothing more than a bunch of parasites that destroyed the Greek economy in the last 40 years. If they dare touch any strategic assets to service the debt they created just to save the banks that themselves brought on the brink of collapse by getting high loans and not paying back, there will be blood on the Greek streets.

GRexit selected. Alexis Tsipras calls a referendum for the Greek voters to vote against the proposed deal.

as harkaz said, Greece is moving closer to default. Greece's European partners shut the door on extending a credit lifeline to Athens, leaving it facing a default that could push it out of the euro after the leftist government rejected tough lender demands and put their bailout deal to a referendum.

Germany’s Wolfgang Schauble also said Greece had ended talks. And several other ministers suggested it could be time for Europe to consider Plan B, ie, how to handle a Greek default, and potential exit from the single currency.

In Greece there have been long queues at some cash machines in Athens as people react to Alexisis Tsipras’s shock announcement late last night

(https://i.ibb.co/DGhPMm8/1749384256.jpg)

Based on everything we're seeing in the news and your posts, it appears a Grexit is inevitable. All we can do now it wait and see what happens.

@Fuj - another reason the US and NATO are building sophisticated anti-missile systems and similar things is because defense contractors in this country stand to make a fortune in the process. They have friends in high places, many of whom are on the take.

I'm not too clear as to why the historical animosity (dating back before Lenin)  between Russia and the West exists at all. I can only assume it's competition for resources. If someone such as Boris Nemsov managed to replace Putin, do you think he'd be able to at least mitigate this situation, if not bring it to an end?

With the current events in Greece, Monday could be interesting. An article of zero hedge is stating "Some Banks May Not Open Monday" according to Greek officials: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/greek-officials-warn-some-banks-may-not-open-monday
The Hellenic stock exchange could stay closed too.
According to those who have access to the futures on the dax 30, the German stock exchange, it was losing 460 points on Sunday. if nothing changes, It's going to be "the feta Alexis with good milk of bullis" on the markets.
(http://nsa37.casimages.com/img/2015/06/28//150628074311402534.png)

In the meantime, let's pray for harkaz and for our Greek brothers.

Greek Prime minister Alexis Tsipras confirmed a few minutes ago on TV that banks would stay closed on 29 june in Greece and the establishment of capital controls...

OK, the collapse has started. Tsipras did not present a plan B for the referendum and destabilised the economy.

Let's see what Greece will be by Friday.

-520 points on the dax,-220 points on the cac40 and -280 points for wall street on the futures of ig markets... The beginning of a significant crash or a bear market? Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't advise you to buy for the moment.
Let's see tomorrow if there is indeed a significant fall at the opening, if it's the case, I will earn money. Luckily, I only have bearish positions on the dax, and I have followed the scenario that I've been giving in this topic for months and it seems to materialize.
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=2319.msg16414#msg16414
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=2283.msg17756;topicseen#msg17756
At 12500 points on the dax I was losing 10000 euros, and I didn't give in. Instead of selling my position, I doubled it and sold 70% with gains. I reinforced it lately, seeing that the turn of events was not positive.
In my opinion the markets could be choppy over the next few weeks.
You know, one day I was drinking and I asked Maher what to do but he couldn't answer me. Thanks to him I took the good decision. If my case with the judge is over soon with a favorable decision, I will make a new donation. Let's pray for me.

Civil unrest will start soon in Greece.

Greece has no political leadership capable of keeping Greece in Eurozone or forcing a Grexit.
Greece will collapse completely, because the elite is full of parasites.

And most Greek people will vote yes just to keep their provisions, not to change the economy. When they'll discover they won't be able to do so after capital controls and default, social coherence will implode.

Unfortunately I'm embarrassed to be a Greek at this tragic moment.

It's possible harkaz, but it's not sure.

Tonight, I'm going to talk about Greece and the financial markets. Unfortunately, this is not cheerful news.
Indeed, Tuesday at midnight is the deadline for the repayment of $ 1.6 billion to the IMF. Greece would then be in default.
Alexis Tsipras is scheduled to speak on Monday at 9pm, while the actors of this crisis, politicians and officials, spoke all day long.
A referendum on the aid package to Greece will be held on 5 July. The banks and the Greek stock exchange was closed for a week.

In the case of the Greek crisis, it's a bit like the children saying, "I know you are, but what am I", the time of reciprocal accusations. The one too, where we expect the other to take a step, each one believing they have done enough.

The one, finally, where nothing happens, where everything is frozen nearly three days after the announcement by Alexis Tsipras, the Greek Prime minister, of a referendum on the proposals of creditors - European Union (EU), International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB), on 5 July.

Now Greece is heading towards bankruptcy, if as seems to be the case, the Greek government is not able to pay before Tuesday 30 June the $ 1.6 billion it owes to the IMF.


For some specialists, the Grexit is the only option. That's the opinion of trader Delamarche, who is explaining that a new currency could boost the Greek economy, and notably tourism, its only profitable sector:
http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/video/olivier-delamarche-vs-rachid-medjaoui-12-il-faut-que-les-grecs-comprennent-que-le-seul-moyen-pour-eux-de-s-en-tirer-est-de-sortir-de-l-euro-2906-572164.html

Of course, the government is accountable for its incompetence and mismanagement of the finances of the nation. But in fact, Greece is the tree that hides the forest. Draghi is afraid a grexit might be a catalyst for the exit of other over-indebted countries, such as Portugal, Italy or France.
Politicians are also afraid of a disruptive and sudden loss of confidence in public debts, with skyrocketing interest rates. This would also trigger a collapse of the financial markets, at least an explosion of the current bubble which has been fueled by the money of central banks over the last few years.

More generally, I think the current events are just a violent resurgence of the crisis of 2008. Indeed, the central banks have gained time, without resolving the main issues.
(https://ray032.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/compromise.jpg)


As I have already said, we are living in complex societies, and whenever a society becomes too complex, it ends up collapsing, as wase the case with the Roman Empire.
(https://aspoonfulofsuga.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/090922evolution.jpg)

It is currently 3:00 UTC 30/6/2015 (21:00 here, still 29/6) - I just turned on the BBC and they're saying Greece is "hours away" from a default. I'm under the impression the default goes into effect at 0:00 (1/7/2015) Athens time. In this upcoming referendum it's clear the Greek people are in a position where they must choose between the Devil and Satan. All we can do now is wait and see.

While we're on the subject, the US territory of Puerto Rico is also about to default. According to the BBC, Washington is saying they will not bail the territory out. Many years ago territories and former colonies fought for independence. Today the shoe is on the other foot - the colonial powers are more than happy to be rid of these territories, it's the territories that don't want independence. In this case, most Puerto Ricans would tremble if suddenly the Americans decided to pack up and leave.

Tonight, I'm going to do a conference to talk about the recent heatwaves and the fall of the financial markets.

Lately, we have seen that India and the south of Pakistan witnessed deadly heatwaves.
A man cooling off in a puddle in Karachi.
(http://static01.nyt.com/images/2015/06/26/world/26Pakistan-web/26Pakistan-web-master675.jpg)

Fortunately, Vasudev and usmangujjar have not succumbed and they are still with us on the forum.
I was a bit astonished because while it was 45 degrees in Karachi at the beginning of June, I was almost cold in Paris, with temperatures sometimes below 10 degrees at night. All that is over and the heatwave reached Europe yesterday. Today the temperature reached 42 here and the alert threshold for ozone levels was exceeded. When I looked out of the window this morning the sky was a bit grey, indeed.

Hellenic Republic has defaulted today. Grexit is now irreversible : Even if the Greeks choose yes on the referendum, banks will remain closed for at least 3 more weeks and capital controls will remain for one more year, at least. Recession will make any attempt to sign a new program unacceptable by society. In the meanwhile, official sector servants will be unpaid due to the collapse of the economy and the state will paralyze.

Alexis Tsipras has, effectively, taken the entire economy down with him.

A new drachma will be devalued about 30 times compared to euro. (It might go even lower).

Fortunately, Greece has some gold left: 100 metric tonnes. We might be able to rebuild the economy with that amount.

I'm announcing a new opportunity: I bought a significant short position at 4935 points on the cac. Tsipras must have burped and there is a technical rebound.
www.boursorama.com/bourse

The position has just been sold with gains. The market has moved down due to discrepancies between Hollande and Merkel.

On 7 may, I was talking about the Chinese stock exchange, warning that a bubble might explode.
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=2283.msg17263#msg17263
The Shanghai stock exchange broke through the 5000 mark since, but in less than a month it lost more than 20% and came back below 4000 points.


The situation in Greece and the slowdown in China can also explain this situation.

As expected in the previous messages, the Chinese bubble keep exploding.
The SSE is currently losing 5%...why not a return on 3000 points?
(https://i.ibb.co/WK8K25Q/784036sse.png)

Today, a crash is expected on the stock markets...

The Shanghai Stock exchange lost 8.45%.
(https://i.ibb.co/VHxxPNR/800369sse.png)

And the futures for Europe and Wall Street are extremely negative.
(https://i.ibb.co/rQRcpCM/433416estx.png)

Are we already on the brink of war?
it's possible.

Macedonia is being invaded by migrants and the police is using tear gas, to no avail.
(https://i.ibb.co/k8xt5X2/12-2741a53.jpg)

And in Germany some riots broke out with people protesting against the opening of a center for refugees in Heidenau.
(https://i.ibb.co/PTQxyQr/4733600-6-374a-heurts-entre-la-police-et-des-manifestants-a8f56d6816837c971711be9e44a4f342.jpg)

In the meantime, Is militants blew up the Baal Shamin temple in Palmyra.
(https://i.ibb.co/F521W9W/x190134-jpg-pagespeed-ic-TXL-z9kx7n.jpg)

Yesteday, there has been a rebound on the stock markets, but they are declining again today. the cac 40 is currently losing 2.22%, the dax 2.17% and the index of Stockholm 1.86%.

On the forum, we have not spotted fuj and iih for a long time now. Perhaps they are back to school, who knows.

I have to go out now. Maybe I will take some photos.

Tonight, I'm going to give you a quick insight of the stock markets.

I advised you to stay out of the stock markets, and I did not imagine that the last few weeks would be so difficult. Recently, the Greece stock markets closed and a few weeks later, in mid August, the markets literally collapsed. The cac 40, the Dax and Stockholm lost 13% in one months, the Shanghai stock Exchange 15%, and the Tadawul of Saudi Arabia 16%. Wall Street only lost 8%.
Certainly, it has been a time of turbulence in financial markets.

Lately I sold my small positions on Theolia, with a small gain. I talked about it recently. I only have some Diaxonhit now, but its stock price plummeted.

And in the next few weeks, perhaps it's going to go up, but I'm not very optimistic. The dow jones is still high, and if it was to go to 13000, the downside potential for the other markets would still be significant.

What's more, the fall in the commodity price does not bode well for growth and it's symptomatic of an economic downturn. But this is good news for the people who have to drive.

Here, I'm showing you the evolution of the stock price of Vallourec, the world leader in the manufacture of seamless steel tubing, notably useful for the oil sector. Its price literally plummeted, since it has been divided by 3 in one year. It's due to the fall in oil prices. The firm announced some losses recently, while publishing its half-yearly results.
(https://i.ibb.co/zm1V3r1/19573611vk.png)

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.
After the big rebound of 5% the SSE, the European markets are green (except the Dax). The Dow jones is close to balance.
The cac 40 is up 1.2%.
I told you to stay away from the stock RWE. It lost 30% ever since. And considering that the firm is going to need further impairment provisions, it's still not advisable to buy it.

According to Goldman Sachs, it's possible the price of crude oil could drop to as low as $20 a barrel. Basically there's too much supply and not enough demand. China is in the middle of a slowdown. The USA is extracting more oil though phracking, and of course there are oil exporting countries who simply cannot afford to cut production. It has gotten so bad that today the price of a liter of gasoline here was 53¢. It's even less expensive than E85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline) which sold for 55¢ despite tax breaks and subsidies. For more details check this link (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/09/11/oil-could-plunge-20-goldman-sachs-says/72054790).

In the US, gasoline is cheap because there is practically no taxes. In Paris, the cheapest station displays 1.35 euros...
Well, nobody seems worried about the US debt though, you can keep paying peanuts for the gasoline. Last year, the US deficit was 800 billion vs 80 billion for France, Germany had a surplus of 18 billion (and we are usually singled out by Merkel, so the US being 5 times more populated than France, it stands out as the worst of the lot).


A article of a man who is predicting a big correction on the markets for October... http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/07/governments-worldwide-will-crash-the-first-week-of-october-according-to-2-financial-forecasters.html
So if you have stocks, and if you have not sold before the correction that I had predicted (The main markets have had difficult times lately, like the Dow jones, the SSE, the Mumbay Sensex, the Dax, the Cac40...) then Be alert for signs that may indicate a further downfall of the stock markets (for example a dove on the roof, a barking dog...) 
Personally, I made a mistake since I bought some diaxonhit in mid-August. I reinforced my position on Friday. By the way, The cac40 lost 2,3% and the dax 3% after a small rebound in the preceding days.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7lX0lR2dgI

There are gasoline taxes in this country, just not as notoriously high as in Europe. The states of New York and California are probably the worst offenders. Regular gas in those states has gone as high as $1.30 per liter. I should also emphasize that the low price of gasoline is a temporary situation caused by the steep drop in crude oil. How long it will last is anybody's guess.

If this country adopted a more ethanol-friendly policy, passing anti-pollution tests would be a lot easier. Sadly the oil monopoly will use all its money and power to prevent that from happening.

to humbert: maybe they have raised the taxes since I visited Florida in 2001, it's possible. But since 2001, the price of oil has gone up, and probably the difference of price was reduced between Europe and the US. Indeed, the US consumer is much affected by the increase in oil prices, while in France there is a mechanism which makes taxes more significant when the price of oil is low (that's the case in the meantime, and that's why the downward price of oil has not been passed on to the consumer). 

I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.
As usual, stocks are crumbling today. While Shanghai earnt 0,86%, Tokyo lost 500 points, and the cac40 and the dax30 are in free fall. The cac 40 is losing 1,30% and the dax 1.82%. The causes are known with the economic crisis and the questioning of the growth in China.
The car sector is falling, except Volkswagen.

(https://i.ibb.co/xsQDtNk/579652cac40.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/1JQ1pmZ/631194dax30.png)

Tonight, I'm going to talk about Ferrari's stock.
Ferrari has priced its stock at $52 per share for its initial public offering (IPO), reports CNBC. That means Ferrari is valued at $9.8 billion. It gained up to 15% on 21 october, topping $60.  Today, Ferrari shares traded at $51.40 down 20% from their top  and falling below $52 IPO price.
(https://i.ibb.co/DQqnYth/949266ferrari.png)

(http://madwhips.s3.amazonaws.com/photo_1_rosso_mugello_ferrari_458_in_paris_6_101263_original.jpg)

The question is: at this price, should you buy Ferrari’s stock? And for me, the answer is no. On the short term, there could be a rebound, but the fall of the stock was clearly predictable. Indeed, If we convert the valuation of the stock to the yearly production of 7000 cars, it gives 1.4 million $ per Ferrari...
So the stock is grossly overvalued. Depending on the overall market, the stock could keep plummeting in the weeks to come.

PS: A few weeks ago I recommended Vergnet, and the stock soared ever since. It is now standing at 3 euros. As for Arcelor Mittal, I was wrong since the stock climbed by 10%. However, I advise against buying it.

Today, I'm going to do a message targeted for those wishing to open an account to trade Forex or binary options.
First and foremost, you have to know that 90% of individual traders or investors who trade on their own capital end up losing money, and it's particularly true concerning forex (95% of losers amongst forex investors vs 89% on equities).
In the second place, I want to warn you against choosing "blacklisted" brokers. Let's take the example of FXGM (and not FXCM which seems respectable). At first you will invest 200$ but then they will make you think that you have earnt a lot of money, their websites being just a fake casino, and finally they will lure you into investing significant sums.
Once the victim is hooked, they are just disappearing with the money. Many of these scam websites are disappearing after a few days too. And many people lost several tens of thousands of $ . Of course their sales representatives will not contact you again. They have no knowledge of financial products, but they are certainly excellent crooks.
In a rare TV report, a hidden camera was showing the premises of FXGM in Israel...and its employees, who were visibly working hard, whilst listening to music. They had probably lured another credulous victim.
(https://i.ibb.co/SskDvX0/204196fxgm.png)
The site FXGM (Don't register unless you are threatened with a gun): http://www.fxgm.com/
The headquarters of FXGM would be situated in Cyprus and its main offices are in Israel. Why Israel? Because Israeli laws are only protecting Israeli people. It means that if you are an American or a European investor, you take it in the as-s.
Tel Aviv, Israel
(http://www.maisondevis.net/website/NOGA/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Telaviv-City-Beach.jpg)

If you want to know if a broker is reliable, you can do a "whois". If the IP is anonymized or if the broker is situated in a tax haven (The Bahamas), just flee.

Here is a list of Blacklisted Brokers.

A
- aaafx.com
- aaoption.com
- abcbinaire.com
- abcoptions.com
- activebanque.com
- ageigerfinancial.com
- agfmarkets.com
- aldershirecapital.com
- ajbrowdercapital.com
- allianzmetrobanque.com
- alternative-markets.com
- analysis-finance.com
- astonforex.com
- astonmarkets.com
- atticusholdingsint.com
- avisoptions.com
- axel-neumann.com
B
- bancdemonaco.com
- bancmarkets.com
- banco-binario.com
- bank-partners.com
- bank2invest.com
- bankandbinary.com
- bankandcapital.com
- bankandtrader.com
- bankingbinary.com
- bankinvestcapital.com
- bankofbinary.com
- bankofmarket.com
- banks-capitals.com
- bankxp.com
- banqofbroker.com
- banqueinvest.com
- barclaysbroker.com
- bclaysmarkets.com
- bclbrokers.com
- beipartners.com
- betonspot.com
- bfmmarkets.com
- bfmvip.com
- bforbinary.com
- bforbroker.com
- bforex.com
- bforoption.com
- bfxoption.com
- bhmmarket.com
- bigoption.com
- bimgfx.com
- binairedirect.com
- binamax.com
- binareo.com
- binarinvest.com
- binaritrading.com
- binaroom.com
- binarush.com
- binary-option-web.com
- binaryforexmarket.com
- binaryfxmarket.com
- binarylowcost.com
- binarymarkets.com
- binarynvest.com
- binarystockmarket.com
- binarywallstreet.com
- binawin.com
- binoa.com
- binomaker.com
- bitc1.biz
- bitc1.com
- bitransax.com
- blue-options.com
- bnrmarkets.com
- bo-bank.com
- bo-markets.com
- bocapital.com
- bossoptions.com
- boursofx.com
- boursolev.com
- boursomarket.com
- boursoratrade.com
- brokeragecapital.com
- brokerandco.com
- brokerinternationalbank.com
- brokerofgeneve.com
- brokerofgeneve.net
- brookbourne.com
- bsf-investments.com
- bvamarket.com
- byrix.com
C
- caesartrade.com
- camfinances.com
- capitalmanagementgroup.com
- capitalmarkets.com
- carmigestion.com
- ccftrading.com
- ceafinance.net
- cedarfinance.com
- central-bourse.com
- centralebankeurope.com
- cerberusgenerale.com
- cfrcomm.org
- cfxmarkets.com
- cititrader.com
- citmarkets.com
- cityeq.com
- cityofbinary.com
- cobtrading.com
- colbertcap.com
- cooperbrennan.com
- corporatetrust-am.com
- cteqs.com
D
- daily-option.com
- deutschemarkets.com
- digitoption.com
- direct-epargne.com
- directepargne.com
E
- easyxp.com
- ebinaires.com
- edinternationales.com
- ef-investing.com
- eiffelinvest.com
- eligere.co.uk
- elyseescapital.com
- empireoption.com
- enfima.com
- epargnefacile.com
- eurobondfx.com
- eurocapinvestments.com
- euromaxfinance.com
- etlfx.com
- everyoption.com
- excellencebroker.com
- excitingmarkets.com
- expertdania-investissement.com
F
- f-financial.net
- fandcmanagement.com
- fb-one.com
- fboption.com
- feeltrade.com
- finance-tradition.net
- financial-broker.com
- financial-corporation.com
- financial-international.net
- financialbinary.com
- financialcorporate.com
- finanperf.com
- finanzasforex.com
- finchmarkets.com
- fmtrader.com
- fobtrading.com
- forex4you.com
- forextrada.com
- forextradition.com
- forex-metal.com
- fortuneoinvest.com
- fp-management.com
- frxbanque.com
- fsi-union.com
- ftg-gmbh.com
- ftradition.com
- futurmarket.com
- fxbfinances.com
- fxbtrade.com
- fxcapitalbank.com
- fxcast.com
- fxcmanagement.com
- fxglcapital.com
- fxgm.com
- fxntrade.com
- fxobank.com
G
- ga-finance.net
- gcitrading.com
- generalbank-invest.com
- generaloptions.com
- genevabroker.com
- getbinary.com
- gfbcapital.com
- gfboptions.com
- gfmtrader.com
- gfssecurities.com
- gftrades.com
- globalmarkets.bg
- globaltrader365.net
- gmtinvest.com
- gmtmarkets.com
- gmtprivatebroker.com
- golden-bank.com
- goldwinmarket.com
- good-option.com
- greycorppartners.com
- gtimarkets.com
- gtoptions.com
H
- haussman-invest.com
- hcifund.com
- helmutstuder.com
- hftpro.com
- hermay.co.uk
- highfrequency.trade
I
- iam-trader365.com
- ibank-capital.com
- ibcfx.com
- icbci.com.hk
- icmarkets.com
- idmarkets.com
- igfmarket.com
- igm-financial.com
- igm-markets.com
- ihforex.com
- ikkotrader.com
- ilq.com.vn
- imcbroker.com
- ingbroker.com
- inglobaltrade.com
- insta-trading.com
- instaforex.com
- integralbroker.com
- intercomarkets.com
- intercontinentalmarkets.com
- invest-binary.com
- investcapitalmarkets.com
- investing-secure-international.com
- ioptioneu.com
- istockcapital.com
- itcfx.com
- itnfx.com
- itradestation.com
- ivoryoption.com
- ixitrade.com
J
- jbc-pro.com
- josef-lang.com
- justrader.com
K
- kd-markets.com
- ksftrade.com
- ksftrader.com
L
- lambergkapital.com
- laplateformedubinaire.com
- leaderoption.com
- legendoptions.net
- libertybinary.com
- livetrader.eu
- lo-bank.com
- londonb.com
M
- markets-capital.com
- markets-central.com
- markets-investment.com
- metatrada.com
- mhoptions.com
- miller-options.com
- monatrade.com
- money-bk-ge.com
- motionforex.com
- mrgmarkets.com
- mutiwinplan.com
- mutual-broker.com
- mybrokercorp.com
- myselftrade.com
N
- nakitrade.com
- natexiss-conseil.com
- nationaldebtplan.co.uk
- netcfd.com
- netotrade.com
- newton-invest.com
- newtradefx.com
- nextbinary.com
- no1options.com
- nordextrading.com
- nowoption.com
- nrgbinary.com
O
- oakwoodfs.com
- obinarycorporation.com
- obmarkets.com
- obroker.com
- okboptions.com
- onetradeoption.com
- opteck.com
- optimarkets.com
- option-bank.com
- option-market.com
- option-world.com
- optionbanking.com
- optionderivative.com
- optiongiants.com
- optionet.com
- optionmint.com
- optionprim.com
- optionprime.com
- optionrama.com
- options-forex.com
- options-tradings.com
- optionside.com
- optionsmarter.com
- optionsxo.com
- optionyard.com
- ora-mer.com
- oxfordmarkets.com
- optionwebs.com
P
- paydayparty.co.uk
- phenixoption.com
- planetoption.com
- prestigebanq.com
- primefms.com
- priva-trade.com
- privatbankinvest.com
- privilege-market.com
- privilegetrading.com
- pro-binary.com
- proinvest.trade
Q
R
- redfordoption.com
- redwoodoptions.com
- regaloptions.com
- rfxt.com
- richardsandcompany.net
- royal-broker.com
- royaldebank.com
S
- safe24options.com
- saitomergers.com
- saphircapital.com
- sccuonline.co.uk
- scottoption.com
- secureinvest.org
- selectcv.ca
- sequoia-markets.com
- shield-bank.com
- shieldscorppartners.com
- silver-phoenix-investments.com
- silverinvestmentcapital.com
- simpletradelimited.com
- solutionscapitals.com
- soxange.com
- startoptions.com
- strategiesolution.com
- strongoptions.com
- success-broker.com
- sunbirdfx.com
- supremebinary.com
- sycamoreoptions.com
T
- technopers.com
- timebinary.com
- tiptopoptions.com
- titantrade.com
- tmarkets.com
- tntoptions.com
- tradaxa.com
- tradecall-invest.com
- tradecapital.net
- tradect.com
- tradefx.com
- tradeofbroker.com
- tradequicker.com
- trader-invest.com
- trader369.com
- tradereasy.com
- traderplace.com
- tradersking.com
- tradersleader.com
- traderush.com
- traderxp.com
- tradignition.com
- trading-markets-capital.com
- tradingtechnologies.com
- tradmaker.com
- triomphecapital.com
- triumphoption.com
U
- ubinary.com
- ubtforex.com
- ukoptions.com
- universalbourse.com
- ubs-pb.com
V
- vankartrading.com
- vaultoptions.com
- versaillesfinances.com
- vipbinary.com
- vpoption.com
W
- wagnercapitalgroup.com
- wakamylibman.com
- white-miller-associates.com
- winn-trade.com
- winntrade.net
- winobin.com
- world-tradeinvests.com
- worldtradeoption.com
- worldtrading365.com
X
- xfr-invest.com
- xfroptions.com
- xpertmarket.com
- xpmarkets.com
Y
- youtradefx.com
Z
- zebrainvest.com
- zeoption.com
- zoomoption.com
- zulutrade.com
0
- 01binarygroup.com
- 01broker.com
1
2
- 2251ws.com
- 24hcapital.com
- 24xp.com
- 2options.com
3
- 360capitalmarkets.com
4
- 4investcapital.com
- 4xp.com
5
- 50option.com
- 5markets.com
6
- 6option.com
7
- 77options.com

Well, it seems I was right about Ferrari's stock. Its price kept tumbling and today the stock price fell more than 4% to close at $46.00. At today's closing, the price is 10% below my month-old warning.
(https://i.ibb.co/3WLrtP7/359024ferrari.png)

Once again, the markets are crumbling...
In fact, markets are tumbling as Draghi disappoints investors, dashing expectations that the European Central Bank would pump more new money into the eurozone economy each month. And I find this rather positive.

(https://i.ibb.co/Ycj7RW5/617984cac40-J.png)


A few weeks ago, I told you to keep away from the stock Arcelor mittal. After a fall of 8% yesterday, its share price is dropping again today...

(https://i.ibb.co/nP1b32R/991747arcelorm.png)

Today, European shares and oil are rising between 1.6% and 2.5% in mid-session, regaining some of the ground lost during the previous sessions, and Wall Street is expected in positive territory in a context where investors hold their breath before the monetary policy decision of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday.


(https://i.ibb.co/SN6qcnK/394767cac40.png)

Today, the European stock markets fell during the last hour of the session.
(https://i.ibb.co/M1pzHSk/724585bourso.png)

Wall street was rising in the middle of the afternoon but at the closing in Europe it was flat.
Some analysts were predicting a rally for Christmas but I think that we the recent downward trend may continue.
There are more and more concerns that the action of the central banks, rather than fundamentals, are driving the markets and that once certain fundamentals re-establish themselves, the stock markets may fall. The fall in oil price is a good indicator of the economic activity, and it just keep sliding.
This morning, when I saw that the Dax was gaining 1,5% I wanted to invest on the Dax double short but I was a bit tired, I didn't do it. I was also preparing the conference with the photos of the paintings. Well, tonight it closed down 1%.

There are also worries concerning the health of the banks:
Europe's 10 biggest banks announced 130,000 job cuts since June, amidst regulation, anaemic economic growth and technology changes. All this will force banks across Europe to find more savings in 2016, with jobs likely to be the biggest casualty, according to investors and analysts.
Ten of the region's biggest banks have announced staff cuts of 130,000 since June, according to data compiled by Reuters more than the total number of job losses announced by those banks in 2013 and 2014. But investors believe the industry will need to slim down further and faster to boost profits.
In the US, the economic context is also quite bad: Morgan Stanley will eliminate 1,200 jobs, including 470 fixed-income and commodities traders and salespeople, as Wall Street’s outlook for its debt-markets businesses dims.
But the following news is perhaps the straw that breaks the camel’s back:
Portugal has agreed a â,¬2.2bn state rescue for Banco International do Funchal (Banif), splitting the Madeira-based lender into “good” and “bad” banks and selling its healthy assets to Spain’s Santander for â,¬150m in the country’s second bank bailout in less than 18 months.



Today there has also been the usual interview with the manager Olivier Delamarche. This time he almost fought with his interlocutor. Even the journalist Sommerer was a bit abashed by this interview. Delamarche has a pessimistic and yet realistic vision of the economy and the markets. For him, the markets are very expensive and fundamentally they would normally be much lower. But his interlocutor was a bit bullish for 2016, stating the US economy is in good shape with a 3% growth, but Delamarche did not really like this analysis, saying that 20% of unemployment in the US according to the LBS were not reflecting a significant recovery.
You can watch it here: http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/video/olivier-delamarche-vs-frederic-rollin-12-comment-les-marches-ont-ils-accueilli-la-hausse-des-taux-de-la-fed-2112-722833.html

After a brief passage in the green during the morning, the European markets are now sliding. The cac40 is losing 0,50%, the dax 0,35%.

(https://i.ibb.co/4T8ZSth/520218cac40.png)

A steep correction is expected on the markets.
(https://i.ibb.co/0QmnY28/80045155ig.png)

Markets are crumbling because there has been a crash of 7% in China. Trading is suspended on both Shanghai and Shenzen markets. I expected such a crash and I sold some equities last week. I invested on the dax double short and took profit this morning. Caution is advised for the moment.

The financial markets shifted from being sino-beatific to sino-panicked.
The Dax30 and cac40 are currently losing 1,7%.
(https://i.ibb.co/HDwkv21/595097dax.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/GcwJQd0/228346cac40.png)

Maybe it’s due to the launch by North Korea of an Hydrogen Bomb yesterday, in a test site in the northeast part of the country.

Well, tonight the Dow jones is literally collapsing. Well, I told you a few days ago that below17000 the dow jones could end up like a sausage, I hope you did not take some bullish positions. And after a steep decline today, the dax and cac40 futures are already bright red.
(https://i.ibb.co/8MB390D/546889igdow.png)
It's certainly linked with the stampede on the Chinese markets, and with the geopolitical situation. The escalating tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the belligerent behavior of North Korea are really disquieting. And I don't even talk about the Islamic State which is acting up in Libya. In Sirte,  most of the population has fled the town. And yet, there would be some humanitarian work for these soldiers in Syria: there is a famine in the West of Syria and some people are scavenging for food, including dogs and cats, in an effort to feed themselves. Of course, there has been a fatwa since it's forbidden in Islam.
And today in France, for the birthday of the attacks of Charlie Hebdo, a man attacked a police station in the 18th arrondissement of Paris with a knife. Allegedly, he was wearing a fake explosive belt and pledged allegiance to daech. He has been the only casualty of his attack.

In China the markets bounced back this night, after the flash crash the day before. In Europe the markets seemed to be relieved but the cac40 is now losing 0,35%. I'm afraid the rebound of the markets might be temporary.
To follow the cac40 in real time, here is a link: http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

Well, finally the European markets fell today. As I was saying earlier, the collapse in the stock markets is probably not over.
Maybe I will hold a conference this week end to talk about this.

This evening, I’m going to talk about the economic context, about the collapse in financial markets and finally we’ll what kind of investments makes sense.



There was the year 2015 with the aligned planets: cheap oil, weak euro and negative interest rates. This favorable alignment was to boost growth in Europe and France. But growth did not come. And now that the year 2016 barely begun, this precarious order is already threatened. Three black stars are arising, while the World Bank has already lowered its global growth forecast for 2016 to 2.9% (against a 3.3% forecast in June).

The first threat comes from China, which had to close the Shanghai Stock Exchange, on Thursday, January 7, for the second time since the beginning of the year after a sharp drop. The second World economy is broken down, and Beijing is about to embark on a currency war. The yuan, which was supposed to appreciate gradually as the Chinese economy was growing, is at its lowest in five years against the $. The dilemma is strong in Beijing. On one hand, the Conservatives are in favor of a slide of the currency that would enable public firms to regain competitiveness with it and avoid laying off massively. On the other, the moderns feel that companies need to restructure and that a sharp devaluation would be only a temporary anesthetic. If the slide of the yuan, of more than 5% since the summer, accelerates, it is a true global currency war that China is going to trigger, to regain its role as the world's factory. This offensive will probably not remain unanswered in Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia.

The second threat is Saudi Arabia. It floods the planet  with oil ad deflated prices, to impoverish its Iranian enemy and drive some US producers of shale gas out of the market. When the price of crude goes down from $ 115 to $ 70, cheap energy boosts growth. Beyond, the negative effects outweigh the positive effects because they affect too many producer countries, plagued by political and social unrests, which drastically reduce their imports.

The third danger is the US Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates in late December. Free and limitless money that had prevailed since the terrible 2008 crisis, is over. And that's good. However, the credit crunch involves significant risks, including that of a long-term rate hike. A bond market crash would affect the major emerging countries, such as Brazil, stuffed with dollar debts, and hamper investments.

What’s more, other threats are looming over the world economy.
In Libya chaos deepens as the country is divided, it has 2 parliaments . And yet it was the richest country of Africa before the fall of Kadhafi in 2011. But Libya is also going broke.That last tidbit should be surprising. Libya has Africa’s largest oil reserves and has long been an important supplier of light sweet crude, the kind made into gasoline and kerosene. It also had tons of money in both hoards of cash reserves and investments across the globe.But the oil, which used to bring in 96 percent of the country’s income, is not flowing anymore. From a high of at least 1.6 million barrels per day at the beginning of 2011, Libya is lucky to export a fourth of that today.And the scope of Islamic State’s attacks on Libya’s eastern oil ports expanded on Wednesday, Libyan officials said, with at least five oil tanks set on fire.



In this context, the financial markets have plunged since the beginning of the year.
The cac 40 lost 7% and practically 15% since the end of November, standing at 4333 points.
(https://i.ibb.co/RznnpCx/618741cac40evol.png)

Likewise the Dow Jones lost 1500 points since the end of November. As for the Stockholm stock exchange, shadow97 asked my opinion during summer. I hope my advice to sell didn’t go unheard, it fell from 1650 to 1350.

Today, after a session essentially spent in positive territory, the cac40 finally ended lower.
Yesterday, the Shanghai stock exchange lost 5%.

(https://i.ibb.co/jz3DgdM/215796cacday.png)

Wall Street is crumbling tonight, now losing 340 points. If things are not changing, the opening of the European markets is going to be interesting tomorrow.
(https://i.ibb.co/pWvxqND/956555-WS2.png)

If I had to choose something, well, I would buy the stock Accor, a leading hotel group listed in the cac 40...
But I would keep avoiding utilities (gas and oil providers) as well as cyclical sectors such as banks in the current context.

On these levels, maybe some users are buying some stocks. Or maybe they have some unrealized losses, I'm thinking of shadow97 and fuj, I don't know why...
But in my opinion, the slide is going to continue, I would wait for a sell-off, and possibly a crack, before buying some stocks. At least I'm not buying anything for the moment. And btw, the market is still expensive.

A few months ago, I talked about the stock Arcelormital (the name Arcelormetal would suit it best).
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg19233;topicseen#msg19233

Well, I think it was an enlightened opinion: ArcelorMittal lost 21.66% since 1 January and is the biggest drop in the CAC40. The metallurgist, which had already lost 57% of its value last year, is still very affected by the renewed uncertainty on the economic situation of the Chinese industry...

Quote from: scarface on January 15, 2016, 02:40 PM
On these levels, maybe some users are buying some stocks. Or maybe they have some unrealized losses, I'm thinking of shadow97 and fuj, I don't know why...
But in my opinion, the slide is going to continue, I would wait for a sell-off, and possibly a crack, before buying some stocks. At least I'm not buying anything for the moment. And btw, the market is still expensive.

Yep I just bought some stocks ;)

(http://yep%20i%20just%20bought%20some%20stocks)
maybe you were right, who knows. Could you tell us which stocks you chose, or the sector that you favored?
For the moment I didnt buy anything, I think there is still room for the stocks to slide further. For example I talked about Accor, and by the way it kept falling last friday, but at the current price the per is close to 30. It's still very expensive.

Well, I hope you benefited from the rebound of the markets to sell your stocks or reduce your equity exposure.
Today the cac 40 gained 1.97%, the dax 1.5% and the stockholm stock exchange 2%.
But since the closing of the European markets 1h ago, the dow jones already lost 100 points. It's probable that the bearish trend may proceed in the days to come.
(https://i.ibb.co/cwVXKrX/247416dow.png)

Quote from: scarface on January 19, 2016, 07:36 PM
Well, I hope you benefited from the rebound of the markets to sell your stocks or reduce your equity exposure.
Today the cac 40 gained 1.97%, the dax 1.5% and the stockholm stock exchange 2%.
But since the closing of the European markets 1h ago, the dow jones already lost 100 points. It's probable that the bearish trend may proceed in the days to come.

I forgot to move my banklogin to my new phone, so I cant log into my bank for a few day. Pray for the stockholm market to stay the same  ::)

Well, I don't really know the stockholm stock exchange. The reason is simple, I can only buy shares listed in the Euro zone. I'm doing some trading for own account during my spare time, but it's rather difficult. Last year I have earnt some money till september. I had no losing trade. And because of only one trade, I finally ended up as a loser. Well, at the beginning of this year I earnt some money that exceeds last year's loss.
I worked for some time in finance, and I know that for 95% of the non professionals, the only winner is the broker. The stock market is practically a zero-sum game. If someone wins, another one loses. Not entirely though, there are dividends. I avoid the "weak markets", for example the Spanish or the Portuguese markets. In 2014 I had bought some stocks of Banco Santo Espirito, roughly 4000 euros, fortunately I sold before the suspension and the bankruptcy. 2 weeks before the management was reassuring about the health of this bank.

As for the stockholm market, a quick glance at those websites makes me think that this market is a bit expensive compared to the other ones in Europe. However, there are good dividends. The question is: are they sustainable, and I don't know the answer. In any case, I would avoid the investments on the Dow jones and the Nikkei.
http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation
http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/aktier/listed-companies/stockholm

For example, 2 days ago, I was looking at the stock EDF. Its trend is clearly bearish but there is an interesting dividend (8%).
http://www.boursorama.com/cours.phtml?symbole=1rPEDF
Because of its involvement in the Areva case (Areva, world leader in nuclear energy, is on the brink of bankruptcy: http://www.wsj.com/articles/french-government-to-pour-cash-into-beleaguered-areva-1433352569), EDF just announced it was going to revalue its assets, include asset impairments charge in its results, and reduce the dividends. In these conditions, I think that the stock will keep sliding.
(http://www.landolia.com/photo/europe/france/photo-9352-12-05-08-11-41-59.jpg)

@Scarface - how is it that a devout pessimist and defeatist like yourself invest money in the stock market? I don't have much money, but if I did I would not invest one cent. There is no difference between playing the stock market and gambling in a casino. Either way the cards are stacked against you.

Instead of saying I'm defeatist, why don't you give your opinion on the markets humbert?
I'm pessimistic about the economic situation in the world, that's true. So are the IMF and a few economists.
A few months ago, I was warning about a bubble on the markets, It turned out I was right, you can read again my messages. when I advised to buy vergnet, I was right. Same thing for Arcelor mittal...
In fact I've been overly optimistic since I invested in some biotech stocks in september 2015 that crumbled.
Well, for the moment there is still a big rebound. I missed it, but I'm not buying now. if the markets keep rising by a few percents, I will buy some shorts, once again.

I logged in today, and looked at everything(not been able to log in for a while) well, a profit on 1.52 SEK(roughly 0.16 euro).. in total.. Thats good enough for me, I can go buy myself a lolipop now.
I managed to get a much better bank deal than I had before, so I have a bank which gives me 0.5% interest rate. Its not the best, but compared to my 0% i had before, its much better. There was another deal for 1.5% interest rate, but I didnt want that because the terms&conditions were a bit meh..

So most of them invested in stock markets? I don't know abcd's of stock market and moreover I'm always struck with bad luck with these matters.

The dow Jones took a header tonight, losing 1.29%, after some mixed results of US firms were published...




Tonight, I ate at a Pakistani restaurant, and I chose some chicken pakora and some tika masala Shrimps with rice. Certainly usmangujjar and vasudev are familiar with that food.

Quote from: scarface on January 26, 2016, 01:43 AM

Tonight, I ate at a Pakistani restaurant, and I chose some chicken pakora and some tika masala Shrimps with rice. Certainly usmangujjar and vasudev are familiar with that food.

Today I had some tikka masala too. One more thing, exam results are yet to come, some of them being poor to worse performance. only time will tell and will it re-spawn another tale is yet to know.

Quote from: Vasudev on January 26, 2016, 06:26 PM

Quote from: scarface on January 26, 2016, 01:43 AM

Tonight, I ate at a Pakistani restaurant, and I chose some chicken pakora and some tika masala Shrimps with rice. Certainly usmangujjar and vasudev are familiar with that food.

Today I had some tikka masala too. One more thing, exam results are yet to come, some of them being poor to worse performance. only time will tell and will it re-spawn another tale is yet to know.

My exam grades just came back, I'm very satisfied with having 75% B or higher.  ::) Mainly because I never do homework, and I mainly just do nothing at lessons, I just improvise during exams.. Well it has worked for me, and is a great way to decrease stress in life. Swedish school is a joke nowdays. Sadly..

Talking about Finance, do you believe you could live a life with little to no income? I mean, after you get a house, and the necessities such as a well, farm, tools, etc.
I've been starting to look more and more into it, and I see a way of doing it, by actually having your house as a job, i.e small-scale farming.. A dream of mine is to be fully self-sufficient.. Thought, I wish I had someone to do it together with, because it would make it all a hell lot easier.
The things that worry me the most if I do actually manage to get a house etc in not the far distant future, is: (if I want to be self-sufficient)..
Heat?
Power by windmill and tesla-like wall battery?
What to do during winters, and how would I make myself, and i.e animals, crops survive..
.. Internet is most likely no issue, I'll just buy some huge *** antenna and steal someone's wifi and expect 0.01 mbit.  ::) No, not really. but well, internet is no necessity as long as you have a small database with information.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on January 31, 2016, 06:12 PM

Quote from: Vasudev on January 26, 2016, 06:26 PM

Quote from: scarface on January 26, 2016, 01:43 AM

Tonight, I ate at a Pakistani restaurant, and I chose some chicken pakora and some tika masala Shrimps with rice. Certainly usmangujjar and vasudev are familiar with that food.

Today I had some tikka masala too. One more thing, exam results are yet to come, some of them being poor to worse performance. only time will tell and will it re-spawn another tale is yet to know.

My exam grades just came back, I'm very satisfied with having 75% B or higher.  ::) Mainly because I never do homework, and I mainly just do nothing at lessons, I just improvise during exams.. Well it has worked for me, and is a great way to decrease stress in life. Swedish school is a joke nowdays. Sadly..

Talking about Finance, do you believe you could live a life with little to no income? I mean, after you get a house, and the necessities such as a well, farm, tools, etc.
I've been starting to look more and more into it, and I see a way of doing it, by actually having your house as a job, i.e small-scale farming.. A dream of mine is to be fully self-sufficient.. Thought, I wish I had someone to do it together with, because it would make it all a hell lot easier.
The things that worry me the most if I do actually manage to get a house etc in not the far distant future, is: (if I want to be self-sufficient)..
Heat?
Power by windmill and tesla-like wall battery?
What to do during winters, and how would I make myself, and i.e animals, crops survive..
.. Internet is most likely no issue, I'll just buy some huge *** antenna and steal someone's wifi and expect 0.01 mbit.  ::) No, not really. but well, internet is no necessity as long as you have a small database with information.

Even I scored 60% in bachelors.

QuoteTalking about Finance, do you believe you could live a life with little to no income? I mean, after you get a house, and the necessities such as a well, farm, tools, etc.
I've been starting to look more and more into it, and I see a way of doing it, by actually having your house as a job, i.e small-scale farming.. A dream of mine is to be fully self-sufficient.. Thought, I wish I had someone to do it together with, because it would make it all a hell lot easier.
The things that worry me the most if I do actually manage to get a house etc in not the far distant future, is: (if I want to be self-sufficient)..
Heat?
Power by windmill and tesla-like wall battery?
What to do during winters, and how would I make myself, and i.e animals, crops survive..

Perhaps you can live with little income if you are self sufficient for food, for example you can have a hen-house, a vegetable garden, but it means you live in a farm. If you have no other ways to earn money that implies you are selling a part of the food output to be able to buy water, grains of wheat for the chickens, and pay for recurring bills...

As for electricity, a windmill is very expensive, but maybe you can afford some solar panels on a roof, for at least 10000-15000 euros. My father has been using a solar system on his roof for years, and it’s working, but the electricity is sold because this electricity is subsidized, and otherwise he would not be self sufficient.

Today, the cac 40 is currently losing 1.8% and the dax 1.1%

In fact, S&P downgraded Shell, and sees a significant likelihood of downgrades for several Europe-based integrated oil and gas majors in the next weeks.
"We now believe many major oil and gas companies' current and prospective core debt coverage metrics are likely to remain below our rating guidelines for two or three years as the industry adjusts to lower prices," S&P analysts said in the report.
a link for the cac40: http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/
a link for the dax: http://www.investing.com/indices/germany-30
a link for the dow jones: http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30

Deutsche bank really worries me.

Its share has lost more than 30 % in a month. It lost 10+% today.

QuoteDeutsche bank really worries me.

Its share has lost more than 30 % in a month. It lost 10+% today.

That's right harkaz, -38% since 1 January, it's quite a big dive. I bought some shares of Deutsche bank in 2014 at 24 euros per share, and I sold a little above, at 26 euros if I remember well. But even at this time Deutsche Bank was not really healthy. A few months before they had made a capital increase to wipe out losses.
A few days ago I was wondering if buying some stocks of Deutsche bank would be a good bet, this time...at 15 euros per share. But the fall in its stock prices was not unjustified, since they announced heavy losses, roughly 7 billion euros, I think. Instead, I bought some Credit agricole. It was not a good idea either. Well I invested a "small sum", not more than 2% of my capital. In fact, I think that the markets will keep sliding in the next few weeks. But contrary to Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole is still paying a dividend, for the moment.
(https://i.ibb.co/JqgPNy7/640585cac40drop.png)

I listened to BFM 2 hours ago, a radio dedicated to financial markets, and they talked about Deutsche Bank. They also talked about the fall in stock markets. While the cac 40 and dax 30 plunged by more than 3%, the Athens stock exchange crumbled by 8%...
They said that the investors were massively selling, to look to safe-heavens such as government bonds or gold.

On this forum, we have seen that everyday some people are registering, they certainly enjoy the forum content and its participants, even if the forum if less lively than before due to the lack of time of certain users. They can ask some questions in this thread if they want.

(http://assets.bwbx.io/images/i8OqKbK2S_n0/v2/-1x-1.png)

We are the champions! Followed by big players like China, Germany and Japan.
Also in the group: Nigeria & Ukraine

Greece also suffers from a refugee crisis and this will only get worse.
We must be the most unstable country in the world right now.

To harkaz: The world is going through a serious crisis and I don't think Greece is the worst country. But Greeks are also a bit responsible for what's happening: the lack of reforms and corruption are undermining Greece.
As for the refugee crisis, Well, 5 million Syrians have already left their country and there are still 10 million Syrians who are going to leave in the next weeks. It will be over soon, when Assad and Baghdadi are both alone in Syria.

Finally, the cac 40 plunged by 4,05% and the dax fell 2.90%. The Dow Jones is currently dropping more than 2%.

PS: I sent Ahmad a message to tell him some people on the forum are waiting for some news.

Certainly I need to rephrase it. We are not yet unstable. The risk is extreme however.

The problem with the refugees is currently financial; apart from the costs of supporting them there is the decline of tourism - the number one source of income for Greece.
But if a handful of terrorists among them decide to destabilize the country, the problem will become much greater.


Plus, there is the certainty of social unrest after a potential bail-in in Greece banks, which will lead to loss of deposits.

At the moment, relatively few people in Greece seem to fully realize the gravity of the situation.
And yes, you're right we're responsible for many things. The most important mistake, however, happened in 2010, when the Greek authorities decided not to default, in order to prevent something we will not prevent anyway: loss of deposits and grexit.

Tonight, I’m going to hold an exceptional conference. For the investors of the forum, I’m going to talk about a real opportunity in Palestine.

A miracle comes out of the ground. Slowly, painfully, in the din and dust. The obstacles are numerous, the adverse winds powerful (I was wondering if my ellipse was correct here?). But stone by stone, Rawabi ceases to be just an architectural blueprint with a perfect geometry or a layout for visitors. Rawabi exists. And it confirms, after many years, its revolutionary destiny: to become the first modern Palestinian city, designed and built to serve its occupants. It will sweep aside many long-held beliefs on the Palestinian territories, according to which the only comfortable living areas are settlements, irrigated by the Israeli public money.

It is also necessary that some people come to Rawabi. The occupants are trickling in, while cranes and workers are busy on this enormous project, located nine kilometers north of Ramallah, the capital of the West Bank.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HPC5bvNRelo/Tb4IGpZnOHI/AAAAAAAAFm4/hZaCy8vfS_0/s400/image-207830-thumbflex-mbmw-1.jpg)
On a nearby hill, Jewish inhabitants of the Ateret settlement observe developments with concern. Three times, mysterious hands tore the large Palestinian flag floating atop Rawabi. For now, two neighborhoods on the twenty-three that count the city are already operational. The center, built in the shape of letter Q - as Qatar, the main funder, through the company Qatari Diar - will house shops, restaurants, cinemas, conference rooms, and space for young entrepreneurs.
A dream of a middle class. Everything is eco-friendly and accessible for the disabled. No satellite dishes or water tanks on roofs, as elsewhere in the Palestinian territories. The used water is treated in a specially built factory, power cables and fiber optics buried. Rawabi hopes to become an incubator for start-up, inspired by the extraordinary Israeli successes in this area. There is a mosque, a Greek Orthodox church and a Roman amphitheater deviation of 15 000 seats, adjoining sports fields. The dream would be to see  the greatest Arabic artists in this majestic setting.
On clear days, it seems that one can distinguish the sea in the distance, and the contours of Tel Aviv. A fully equipped medical center will come out of the ground. A town hall will host the first town councilor. Three schools are also planned, but their construction has been delayed for lack of funds. They are due to open in September 2016. Total cost of Rawabi, at this hour: 1.2 billion $, against 850 million originally planned.


Cleanliness is impeccable, walkways do not resound with children’s shouts. It will take a few months before the first stores - grocery and pharmacy - enable residents to obtain fresh supplies. None of this has deterred the Al-Gabareen family. Raga, 30, and her husband, Mohammed, 34, complete the unpacking  of the boxes. The hotplates are not yet set, so they temporarily installed a gas tank and a stove in the kitchen. The family lived in Al-Bireh, near Ramallah, on a busy street, no garden or lift. Here they marvel at their new surroundings, 190 square meters smelling fresh paint and new leather. Until  some buddies appear in the staircase, the children are glued in front of a big TV showing cartoons. "Right now, we're the only ones living in the building, it's weird but very relaxing, said Raga. Families come to us for advice before moving. "

Manager in an advertising agency, she explains their approach. "Rawabi is a smart city, all facilities are planned in advance, she said. I want my children to grow in a secure and ecological environment. "The couple bought the apartment for 126,000 dollars. they paid 15% of the contracted amount and took out bank loan with a 4.75% interest rate. Prestigious foreign visitors who came here have necessarily been impressed. They also wondered if there were enough Palestinians with comfortable incomes to be able to make such an investment.


To date, 650 apartments were sold. Once completed, Rawabi will count 6 000 flats. Candidates are attracted by both the comfort and modern facilities offered by the space, but also by price. "It is 25% cheaper than Nablus, or Ramallah, said Amir Dajani, deputy manager of the site. We want to capitalize on the young and educated population, thanks to the nearby Beir Zeit University. "Among the buyers, there are Christians, people living in Israel or Palestinians living abroad, wishing to invest in a future project. But the developer is careful not to turn Rawabi into a desert city.
Bashar Masri is not tired of observing the first removal trucks entering Rawabi. Aged 54, the owner of Massar International is one of the richest Palestinian entrepreneurs. He made his fortune in real estate projects in the Middle East and North Africa. On the wall, a map of the city, which looks like a beetle. "This is the largest project in Palestinian history, he said. My vision is not Rawabi, but the domino effect it will cause. The lack of housing in the West Bank amounts to 200 000 units. We are building here in 6 000. I believe that a Palestinian state is in the making, but it will require decades. The issue is not that the Israeli occupation will end one day. It's certain. The question is: what will be the nature of our state? What healthy economy? "
Bashar Masri is an enduring visionary. He has been obsessed with Rawabi since 2007. The biggest problem yet to solve is the road. A single access, narrow road allows to reach Rawabi. The city is located in Area A, under control of the Palestinian Authority. But building a wide, multi-lane road, which would reach Ramallah in 10 minutes through Area C, requires the agreement of the Israeli administration. "They will perhaps accept, sighs Mr. Masri. But the devil is in the details. Suddenly, they ask for an environmental impact study and another one one the traffic expected ... "
Masri did everything to politicize Rawabi, so as not to become hostage to the conflict. Since Palestinian officials themselves are both unable to perceive the symbolic power of the project, and not much interested in it, the contractor went on his way, alone. "The Authority [PA] has given us a moral and political support, but without investing a single penny. They should, through tax collection, install electricity, police station, fire station, access roads! "
Before the new wave of violence, in October, he had observed a renewed interest in his new city. Since, the restrictions reinforced by Israel on travel have slowed the construction site, including the movement of workers from Hebron's southernmost territory. Some contractors have even decided to rent their apartments, near Rawabi.
For several years, Mr. Masri has been criticized, envied. He has been criticized, at first, for expropriating the inhabitants of twelve villages around, of which a part of the land was bought. Then for acquiring building materials in Israel and thus stimulating the economy of the occupant. "Some considered that Rawabi endorsed the occupation, since everything was done through discussions with Israelis, said a member of the executive committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). But if you do something to protect our land, it is positive in the end. "So," collaborator "rather than resistant, Bashar Masri? "I hate the settlements, but I will not give the hilltops to these people breaks off the businessman. I prefer ignoring that passenger emotional resentment. "

I wanted to hold another conference to explain why banking stocks tumbled. Yoda, zeromido, iih or humbert may be wondering if it's a paradigm shift or a disproportionate reaction of the shareholder.
Unfortunately, I washed my keyboard and it's not working anymore, Ive got to use my phone and it's not very handy. However I'm going to sum up what I wanted to say.

A new economic cycle started in 2008, driven by 3 factors: demography, a new technological revolution, the debt burden of the states. These 3 elements involve a long period of sluggish growth and deflation, therefore the value of assets must be adjusted. The adjustment already took place on raw materials in emerging countries. It's normal that it now takes place on the financial markets.

The collapse of the banking stocks is not the sign of a new financial crisis, but rather the sign of a massive valuation adjustment. Without speculation, banks are just products distributors, and there is no reason that they are better valued than Carrefour or other distributors.
It's this adjustment that is underway, amplified by negative rates that have a destructive impact on the margins of the financial distribution groups. As for fragile countries like Greece or Portugal, a grouping or a merger of the banks with a bailout plan will probably prove necessary.

Last time, I talked about Rawabi and I hope that you found the conference interesting. Well, to be honest, I would not invest in real estate in Rawabi because I don’t like what is “kitsch” and while accommodation in Rawabi is certainly comfortable, I prefer living in a town which has a long history and where the buildings are not all the same. Ten years ago I visited Naples, where I was accommodated in the house of an acquaintance and I to be honest I didn’t like it. Even if there was a tennis court in front of the house, I was gripped by a kind of malaise since all the houses were identical, with an American flag. The streets were all the same too. However, that wasn’t the case in Miami.



Tonight, I’m going to hold another exceptional conference, and give you a quick insight of the situation in Salton Sea, California. Contrary to Palestine, the media have not the habit of talking about the golden state in negative terms. Because of the mass media, we tend to have manicheistic view of the current affairs, but things are more complex.
Indeed, we usually read articles about the tech firms of the silicon valley or the movie makers of Hollywood. Actually, few articles are talking about the numerous homeless persons or the ecological disaster taking place in Salton Sea. This conference is not meant to be a deterrent to those who want to settle in California, but a reminder that the most populated and richest state of the US is facing big problems due to the lack of measures tackling water consumption and irrigation.

The Salton Sea was born by chance between 1905 and 1907 when the Colorado River broke through diversion canals in the irrigation system in Imperial County, in the South East of California.
This salty lake is dying the 1970s, evaporating, its waters lead to the extinction of fauna and release toxic products. It is a programmed catastrophe that told in pictures by the photographer Torbjørn Rødland.

What is striking when you arrive at the edge of Salton Sea is a pungent smell that stings the nose and creeps into the throat. A mixture of rot and emanation of chemicals. From a distance, the lake has kept its turquoise blue background of glowing rocks and exudes a magic that has long been a postcard setting. From close up, it offers a spectacle of desolation: stunted palm trees, scorched earth salt, smelly mud, and most especially, thousands of dead fish that form a morbid ribbon all along the shore. The Show is unveiled here by Torbjørn Rødland, through his photos. This Norwegian artist has been living in Los Angeles for several years and seeks to call into question the contemporary society and its excesses. Salton Sea could not be a better place...

In 1905, the failure of a dam on the Colorado River let out tons of water that found refuge in a desert valley, a few kilometers from Palm Springs. a lake of 55 kilometers long and twenty kilometers wide formed, the largest in California. A boon for area farmers, who grew crops and plantations. In the 1950s, the place became a popular tourist destination.
The lake that formed instead of a sea that vanished thousands of years ago is two times saltier than the Pacific. Fishes were introduced and throve in this new habitat. Competitions were organized, a port was built. A town soon, Salton City, then another, Bombay Beach came out of the ground and motels sprang up like mushrooms. Water sports then expanded to attract celebrities. Frank Sinatra had his habits in Salton Sea, Jerry Lewis and the Marx Brothers as well. At its height, Salton Sea attracted a million and a half visitors a year, more than Yosemite.

But from 1970, the station became a nightmare. The water began evaporating, the salt concentration of the lake increased, accelerating evaporation. A vicious circle was soon fatal to fishes: due to the lack of depth, they died, scaring away tourists. Hotels, restaurants, bars closed one after the other. The shores of Lake take rapidly became a ghost town: abandoned houses, mobile homes carcasses, boats remains. Today, most of the inhabitants have gone, the port closed more than ten years ago. Like the Yacht Club and the shops. The golf course has not a blade of grass. Only survive migratory birds dancing around the fishes frozen in salt.

Salton Sea is cursed:  with the evaporation of water, phosphates and pesticides due to the development of agriculture that were lying in the bottom of the lake come up to the surface and contaminate the region at the mercy of storms. A study reported that rates of lung and respiratory cancer are four times higher here than in the rest of the United States. If the sea continues to dry up, the entire Coachella Valley could become uninhabitable and one and half million Americans could be forced to relocate. Many environmental protection organizations are sounding the alarm bell. Certainly the evaporation of water is inexorable, but measures can be taken to conserve wildlife and protect the environment. But Salton Sea is far from Los Angeles and San Diego, and the fate of the people who still live there, a poor population, made up of Latinos for 80%, hardly stirs the authorities.


Today these lunar landscapes only attract penniless retirees coming in caravans to enjoy the sun in winter. The stench does not seem to bother them. They spend their days playing bowls and chatting, sitting on their folding chairs.

(https://i.ibb.co/cDyLRrr/Salton-Sea-Beach-29ee9.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/bgbyPpL/inhabitants-left.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/drpj8RH/sonny2.jpg)
Sonny Bono, mayor of Palm Springs from 1988 to 1992, was one of the first to denounce the ecological disaster to come.

(https://i.ibb.co/pxjDKcp/maga.jpg)
"Make America great again": this campaign slogan has been used over the years by several politicians in the United States. The latest one: Donald Trump.

The market is now crumbling: the cac 40 and the dax are falling by more than 1% after rising by 3% a few hours ago...
Visibly, the decision of the ECB did not reassure the investors, who must be wondering if the central banks have not lost control of the situation. I earnt some money with my strategy today, even though I sold the double short dax a bit too early

Quote from: scarface on March 10, 2016, 04:05 PM
I advise you to sell your stocks

Who other than you on this forum owns stock? Playing the stock market is no different than gambling in a casino, unless of course you have inside information.

Quote from: humbert on March 11, 2016, 03:13 AM

Quote from: scarface on March 10, 2016, 04:05 PM
I advise you to sell your stocks

Who other than you on this forum owns stock? Playing the stock market is no different than gambling in a casino, unless of course you have inside information.

I do. Slowly but surely I'm actually getting profit.
2% increase of value from January 1'st.

Scarface - I certainly hope you're right about your predictions. I still believe that when it comes to playing the stock market, no matter how logical or fact-based your estimation might be, in the end you're taking a gamble. The only real way to succeed in the stock market is to have inside information.

Then again I suppose it could also be argued that nothing is life is guaranteed except death and taxes.

Tonight, I'm holding a conference to talk about the factors that determines the life expectancy of the poorest in the United States. We are going to see that besides the financial factor, the geographical factor is an essential parameter.

Inequality in the United States does not materialize only financially but also in terms of life expectancy depending on where you live. Thus, when one is poor, the likelihood of having a shorter life is greater if you live in Detroit (Michigan) and in Cincinnati (Ohio) rather than in New York or in Los Angeles (California). This is the conclusion of eight researchers in a study published on Monday, April 11 in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Detroit
(https://i.ibb.co/PNbdRy0/detroit-fight-shows-why-public-pensions-are-bound-for-problems1.jpg)

The study was based on a review of 1.4 billion tax documents of people aged 40 to 76 years over a period that spans from 1999 to 2014. It first shows that men among the richest 1% live fifteen years longer on average than those belonging to the category of the poorest 1% (for women the gap is reduced to ten years). Then, if we broaden the population segment to the richest 5% and the poorest 5%, the authors find that the gap in life expectancy is growing. Thus, when the former realized a gain of over two years over the considered period, the average life expectancy for the latter remained virtually unchanged. A study by the Brookings Institution published in February had already highlighted the worsening of the gap in life expectancy by income.

The current situation is such that an American of 40 years old whose incomes are in the lowest percentile has a life expectancy similar to the one in Sudan (roughly 62) and lower to the one in Pakistan (67) or Palestine (72). However when one belongs to the highest percentile, life expectancy in the US is one of the highest in the world, above the one in Greece (81).

Islamabad
(http://i1.wp.com/islamabadscene.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/20130817_170043.jpg)

Greece
(http://www.yourgreekisland.com/wp-content/uploads/skiathos-greece/skiathos_thumb.jpg)

Local policies in question

But the originality of the study is to demonstrate the geographical impact on life expectancy. If for the rich it is almost zero, for the poor, however, the differences are significant. Thus, life expectancy for men in the poorest quartile reached 79.5 in New York, 79 in Los Angeles years or 78.3 in Miami (Florida). But it is only 74.6 in Indianapolis (Indiana), 74.8 in Detroit and Dayton (Ohio). Basically in this category of population we live on average four to five more years older in the town of East and West coasts of the United States than in the industrial Midwest.

The economic and demographic decline of this region is not necessarily the cause of the gap in life expectancy, according to the authors. The key explanation and cause of these disparities are on the local political side to prompt the adoption of a healthier lifestyle such as smoking bans or fight against obesity programs. The study finds that it is in towns where the proportion of university graduates is the most significant that this type of action is most often adopted. New York, where proactive policies were carried out against tobacco or fats and sugar in food is quite symptomatic.

However, the study does not clearly establish a correlation between the rate of health insurance expenditures for the poor (Medicaid) or the proportion of the population benefiting from the aid and a better life expectancy of the poor. Without underestimating the importance of this type of policy, the authors of the study point out that the measures that influence behavior in terms of lifestyle are much more critical.

Tonight, I’m holding another conference about the financial markets. If some readers have questions or remarks, they can react and participate.


The bull market we are witnessing is almost in the order of the unreal; it is currently the second longest bull market, and could become the first shortly. The S&P500 rose on average by 10% over the past 19 months, it avoided the 20% decline that characterizes the beginning of a bear market. This increase began on the date of the inauguration of President Barack Obama on 3 January 2009 and continues today, a total of 2607 days. In term of bull market, only the period between 1949 and 1956 could compete. As for the biggest bull rally, it took place from the 1990s to the Internet and technology bubble, a period of 3452 cumulative days.

(https://i.ibb.co/C2CN9Jx/1602951-SP600x293.png)

Currently, the situation that we know should warn us; because the bullish rally shows a few signs of fatigue. The US index decreased YoY, and the S&P 500 companies have announced their lowest profits for the last 6 effective years, while economists forecasters constantly revise their growth estimates downwards. The European indexes started to decline last summer, and despite a rebound after a catastrophic start to the year, the trend seems to be bearish, as we have seen this week.

7 years ago we witnessed a true fool's game. The Fed and other central banks have repeatedly shown that they were ready to inject more money into the financial system, at the first signs of turbulence in stock markets.

Jim Paulsen, an analyst at Wells Capital Management, a fund management which handles nearly 337 billion $ and is based in Minneapolis, said he does not remember having experienced a bull market after the war with such chronic or persistent fear. It's very paradoxical, because investors expect at every moment the end of the world but are dragged in reluctantly on the markets.

What characterizes this bull market is its ability to constantly evolve higher while we encounter a period of increasingly weak economic growth. In March 2009, the US GDP in the first quarter fell by 3.7%, its biggest collapse with that of 1946. Since then, the GDP rose by an average of only 0.9% per year. This difference is huge!

(https://i.ibb.co/y03DgvN/4490362-SP600x338.png)

Even without growth this year, the profits of S&P500 stood at approximately $ 118 per share, approximately twice those recorded in 2009. Profit margins begin to decline after reaching a peak in 2014.

The other element to consider is the Price-sales ratio. The index is near its highest level reached 15 years ago.

(https://i.ibb.co/L64vB3n/8347343-SP600x338.png)

Investors are now increasingly worried. They are concerned among other things, by the level of global debt, the budget deadlock in which the US government has strayed, the threats of a downturn of the Chinese economy, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the situation in Greece and the euro area.

But despite all these risks, equity valuations unexpectedly climbed, they are 30% higher than those in 2007. 2007, the year before the biggest stock market crash since 1930.

However, the fears are not confined only to valuations. Anxiety persists because of negative interest rates. These rates were introduced by central banks in Europe and Japan. Moreover, the Brexit inevitably entails a number of uncertainties. What will the British electorate decide?

Today, I’m going to hold an exceptional conference to give you a brief overview of what happened on the stock markets last Friday. Then I will talk about my strategy.


The stock markets fell sharply on Friday June 24 in the world, following the shock of the British vote in favor of their exit from the European Union, which caused the Sterling Pound to tumble and shook all the markets in the  world. The London Stock Exchange ended the day down 2.76%, Frankfurt fell by 6.82%, Paris by 8.04%, Madrid and Milan by 12.35% and 12.48%.
(https://i.ibb.co/djsB3d2/282924cac40.png)

Olivier Raingeard, chief economist at Neuflize OBC, declared that "the market reaction today is proportional to the surprise of the investors who, in recent days, largely anticipated the opposite scenario." "Volatility is clearly back and should continue in the coming days and weeks," he said.

The bloodshed was general in Europe, all sectors were affected, primarily the banks, the sector index Stoxx plunging by 14.28%. Conversely, investors flocked to safe havens such as German government bonds, yen, Swiss franc and gold. The shock is such that it could force the European Central Bank (ECB) to ease monetary policy again in the coming months, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to abandon its rate hike plans for this year.

In London, the FTSE 100 index fell by 175.13 points. Paradoxically, the London index suffered less than its equivalent on the continent because it has some number of multinationals that have little activity in Europe.

The most affected values were the titles of real estate developers and banks. British banks have recorded 17.7% dives for Barclays, 21% for Lloyds and 18.04% for Royal Bank of Scotland. Earlier in the day, noting that financial markets were dropping, the Bank of England had expressed willingness "to inject 250 billion pounds" to turn off the fever in the markets.

The CAC 40 finished down 8.04%. The CAC 40 index lost 359.17 points at 4 106.73 points in an exceptionally high trade volume of 11.7 billion euros. In early trading, the Paris market briefly collapsed by over 10%. However, it has remained above its yearly lows around 3900 points.

The financial sector, which had risen in recent days, was particularly affected. Among banking stocks, BNP Paribas fell by 17.40% at 39.40 euros; Credit Agricole by 14.00% at 7.65 euros, and Societe Generale by 20.57% at 28.80 euros.

The DAX also ended the session with a heavy fall, the index dropping by almost 7%.
For the main index of the Frankfurt's, this is the largest decline in a session since autumn 2008, when the financial crisis took its full extent in Europe. It still remains far from the historical decline of almost 13% on October 1989, or that of 8.49% on 11 September 2001.

Among the main losers in the DAX we can also find banking stocks. Deutsche Bank, whose British boss John Cryan sees negative consequences of Brexit "from all sides", was the most affected. With a loss of 14.13% at 13.37 euros, it is the largest decline of a DAX completely repainted in red. Commerzbank dropped by 12.99% at 6.20 euros.

The Ibex, the flagship index of Madrid suffered its biggest drop in its history, 12.35% at 7 787.70 points, after the victory of the yes for Brexit. The banking sector was the most affected: Banco Santander, very present in the UK, declined by 19.89%, at 3.38 euros, Bankia by 20.78% at 0.57 euro; and Banco Sabadell, by 19.29%, at 1.21 euro.

The Athens Stock Exchange declinted by 13.42%, the index of banks suffering significant losses.The main victims of this collapse are the four major banks, already fragile due to the recession and bad debts. Alfa dropped by 29.66%; National Bank of Greece, 29.45%; Piraeus Bank, 29.6%; and Eurobank 30%.

Wall Street has not been spared from the turmoil on Friday. While the decline accelerated Friday in mid-session, the Dow finally closed at -3.39%.

The British vote "poses a huge cloud of uncertainty," said Peter Cardillo, at First Financial Standard. According to him, "the decline is not going to stop, because nobody knows what will happen", leading investors to seek safe havens.




Personally, I felt there was an opportunity on Thursday night, whatever the outcome of the vote. I was almost certain the “No for brexit” would win, but I had no position at all, except some hybrigenics stocks.
(https://i.ibb.co/WVrpwCv/522068hyb.png)
As humbert would say, it was a lottery and it turned out that forecasters were indeed wrong since a slight victory of the No was expected. At 22pm, as markets were rising by 2% on the futures (Roughly 4,550 points for the cac40), I was planning to take a contrarian position (a short tracker) but while the outcome in favor of the Yes was looming large, I practically did not sleep a wink, despite the fact that I was working the next day, to follow the results in my white armchair. Finally, When I've eeen that there was a crash at the opening (-500 points on the futures for the cac 40), I took some big positions on the markets (some were not executed) on banking shares. I bought a large amount of Credit Agricole and SocGen stocks (I was not in front of my computer at the opening because I was in the tube to go to work at 9pm and trading of banking stocks was suspended anyway.
(https://i.ibb.co/fDpztMw/501264gle.png)
Finally my purchase order on Aca was executed at the opening a few minutes after 9pm, and the one on SocGen a few seconds later (I knew there would be a moment of sheer panic and I put an order at 26.2, below the forecasted opening price at 27 euros (-25%).
This strategy was risky, after all, these stocks could have collapsed completely, but the risk/reward was interesting and it really paid off. I sold these positions when I arrived at work, at 9.30pm.



Probably, the users of the forum want to know what strategy to adopt from now on.
Well, in my opinion, the markets are going to bounce back, but on the middle term I stay rather bearish for the financial markets.
My forecasts for the cac40:
On the short term: rebound towards 4200 points (3-4%)
On the middle term: 3800 points, and probably lower.
The volatility is going to stay high. By the way, the Futures for Monday on ig markets are already bright red, but it’s not necessarily representative of the opening, things can change during the week end. At the closing on Friday, I bought back 300 Societe General stocks.
(https://i.ibb.co/dJv0jNq/88026988ig.png)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_3QsacXtz4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzUlQIJsQpY

Quote from: scarface on July 17, 2016, 09:31 PM
Tonight, I'm going to give you another brief overview of the stock markets.

nice read haha. Well, when you buy silver and such, how do you know if you own it.. Or is it like money on the bank. Its just there, but you cant really access it. Or can you take out 1kg silver and hold it?

Well, you know shadow97, I'm glad you are asking such interesting questions. As always, you seem broad-minded, it has become rare.
In this topic, like in the others of the forum, nobody talks because we are tackling interesting issues. Were we to talk about football, there would be thousands of imbeciles on the forum, inevitably.

To answer your question, I'm using a bank safe to store hard-to-replace documents, jewelry, gold and other valuables.
Here is a photo of some of my coins, in sealed packets.
(https://i.ibb.co/0GHWwFB/920058-WP20160712004.jpg)
If you are buying Gold or Silver, don't do like me, don't tell the people around you even your parents, they will laugh at you. Because they don't know anything about economy, and also because they are jealous since they have no money to buy Silver or Gold.


Now I'm going to tackle another question: is it the good timing to invest in stock markets or Gold?
Well, the last time you asked me a question in this topic, I guess I gave you a good piece of advice. When the Stockholm stock exchange was standing at 1622 points, I told you I would sell...It's now at 1372, 15% below.
As for now, I don't want to give you bad advice, since I'm a bit perplex: The markets have undergone a correction, but after the recent rebound I wouldn't come back. Central banks keep interest rates steady and at a low level, it's likely to reassure anxious investors and prompt stock prices to rise again (The Dow Jones reached new highs) but the economic situation is not as good as it seems. I read that in the UK, a slowdown of the economy is already underway. As for the rest of Europe, well the situation of certain banks is still pretty dire. The balance sheet of Deutsche Bank is not very beautiful according to various analysts.

As for precious metals, Well, if you decide to buy Gold or Silver, you must have a comfortable liquidity buffer.
Personally, I bought gold in 2014. It was not the perfect timing, but almost. At this time I was already aware that the BCE could announce a QE at any time. Actually, at this time the price of gold was a bit high, but the quantitative easing of the BCE dragged down the euro to 1.10$...(I bought some coins at 180 and 200 euros, they are now worth about 220 euros).
Investing in precious metals is the best way to be protected in case of devaluation anyway.

What do you plan to do with those gold coins? Are you planning to speculate and sell them when the price of gold goes up or what?

Tonight I’m going to hold an exceptional conference to give you my opinion about the financial markets, and answer shadow97, because I think my previous reply was incomplete.

At present, it seems that financial markets are stagnating. In this context, buying shares can be a bit risky. We could think that ECB‘s quantitative easing is likely to be more favorable to Europe's equity markets than to America's, but the valuations of both of them are now high.
With the Dow Jones standing at 18500 points, the most aggressive traders of the forum can buy some bearish ETF. From this point of view, they can hedge their position or play purely speculatively with the UltraShort Dow 30 ETF named DXD (this fund seeks to deliver twice the inverse of the daily performance of the DJIA). As far as the European markets are concerned, I guess it is perhaps too late to invest in stocks and to early to invest in a bearish tracker (In case the cac40 and the dax are climbing by a few percents, maybe buying some BX4 and DSD could be wise).


Lately, I told shadow97 that gold and silver investments could be interesting. In fact, historically, gold and silver were not very good investments. They do not pay dividends and brokerage fees due upon the acquisition and sale or taxes on capital gains can be significant.
In fact, gold and silver should not take a significant part of your assets (a few percents, not more).
Today, what matters is to preserve one’s assets, a fortiori with the sorcerer's apprentices at the head of central banks.
This is why assets diversification is essential. I am convinced that the most active users on the forum, as humbert, Maher or usmangujjar are nodding in agreement, while the others must be wondering what the hell I'm saying.
By the way, humbert asked recently:

QuoteWhat do you plan to do with those gold coins?

Currently, I'm planning to keep my gold coins and my silver bars, as long as Doctor Draghi and and Mrs Yellen are printing money...what else?


Mid 2014, I bought dollars and Swiss francs for a few thousand euros. I told a few people I was buying foreign currencies but they just laughed.
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=1020.20
It turned out that a few months later, the euro collapsed against the dollar and the Swiss franc. I was vindicated. and I made an interesting, non taxable capital gain, almost 20% of the initial bet. With hindsight I should have bought more foreign currencies, but it's always easy to judge an investment thereafter.
Today, I have more trouble seeing opportunities, with the â,¬/ $ and â,¬/chf pairs respectively standing at 1.10 and 1.09.
If the British pound keeps falling, there may be a buying opportunity, even though I hardly see what catalyst could boost the pound.
For the most fearless investors the forum, I guess that the Syrian pound could be an interesting investment in the medium term, for the simple reason that it is not worth much. But it might be difficult to obtain this currency, and recent events are not calling for an improvement of the situation in Syria in the short term.
(https://i.ibb.co/Qmh6vVQ/329017eursyp.png)



PS: a new user named “demouser” seems to be particularly happy with the latest edition of windows 7 x64 lite. This is good news. After years of work, this version is indeed quite interesting.
Note that Next month I will probably not update it. Currently, I don’t have much time. I’m not planning to update windows 10 either.  Maybe I won't be present on the forum. I'm just tired.
Remember that the updates for net framework 4.6 needs to be manually installed, they fail with windows update (you must extract them, run the msi and it will ask the path for the .msi of the modified net framework lite, the link is somewhere in the rebase topic).

Yesterday evening, I deleted a few movies in the good movies topic. However, there are still a few interesting movies that you can download.


Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight of the financial markets.
Markets in Europe recovered slightly after earlier losses on Monday following the announcement from Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi that he intended to resign after a defeat in a key referendum.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up by about 1 percent after opening in the red.
A few weeks ago, I talked about Vergnet. It was climbing by 30% this morning, reaching 1.35 euros. I sold my position at 1.20 euros and made a tidy profit (Fortunately, I had sold my previous position bought at 1.23 euros just before its profit warning - and bought again several times between 1.04 and 1.10. Below 1 euro, I must admit that I had a significant virtual loss).
(https://i.ibb.co/dtD0ZJQ/280709vergnet.png)



I was thinking about a Christmas present for Maher or for the regular users of the forum, some good chocolate, or something else (usmangujjar or vasudev for example).
If you can't afford some chocolate for Christmas, send me your address, maybe someone will deliver some gifts.

Allan J. Lichman, a professor of history who correctedly predicted the outcome of every American election since 1984 and predicted a Trump victory 8 months ago, is now predicting that in all likelihood Trump will be impreached. I suppose time will tell.

Today, I’m going to hold an exceptional conference about the end of oil. This conference is part of the topic about finance because of the future consequences on the economy.


The rapprochement between Exxon and the Kremlin is a symptom of the physical limits to growth.
According to the International Energy Agency and HSBC, it is necessary that the prices of the barrel go up, and quickly, if not the peak oil is likely to be imminent.
But can oil prices rise quickly?

Donald Trump claimed to appoint at the head of the American diplomacy the boss of the oil giant Exxon, Rex Tillerson. It’s not sure that the Senate validated this appointment, while the CIA and the NSA claimed that Vladimir Putin, a key partner of Exxon, managed to influence the US presidential campaign in favor of Trump.

"Tillerson Rex", by TOad
(https://i.ibb.co/0ChGx1p/786509tellersonrex.jpg)

This choice of the new American president, whatever happens, is symptomatic of the question discussed here: are we fighting against the physical limits to economic growth?
The Kremlin as well as Exxon have their backs to the wall facing this issue, and consider each other as emergency exits.



Exxon first. The growth of the American firm is eaten from the inside by the physical limits of its oil fields.
Exxon's oil production has declined slowly but steadily over the past ten years, although in the meantime the biggest oil firm has doubled its productive investments.

Doubling the fertilizer for a crop that decreases: there is a problem in the soil.
Exxon's crude oil extractions were 2,221 million barrels per day (Mb / d) in the third quarter of 2016, down 17% from a historical peak of 2.681 million barrels a day in 2006.
(https://i.ibb.co/jzXFRpP/198484exxonprodcapex.png)

Since 2015, the fall in oil prices has caused the investments of Exxon - as in the entire crude industry - to collapse, which does not bode well for the future production.
The roots of evil are deeper than the fall in prices. From 2011, when the barrel was worth more than $ 100 (compared to about $ 58 today), the billions spent to sustain production have continuously increased the free cash flow of 'Exxon

2011 is the date when Rex Tillerson imposed a sensational and perilous change on Exxon, partnering with Vladimir Putin. The goal is to develop - with hundreds of billions of potential investments over the next few decades - the two ultimate major targets on Earth for the petroleum industry, of which the real potential remains unknown: the Russian Arctic and the oil shale of Western Siberia.



Russia now. Russian oil production was maintained despite the fall in oil prices (to the surprise of all observers). But the conventional oil fields of Western Siberia are old and many are depleted. The total production of Russian oil is doomed to a long decline, repeated for several years the International Energy Agency, which insists in its latest annual report that “neither the future potential of the Arctic nor the Russian resources In shale oil are enough to compensate for the decline".

The Kremlin has an urgent and massive need for foreign capital and expertise, whose access remains hampered by the sanctions imposed by the Obama administration following the Ukrainian crisis.



The International Energy Agency (IEA), in the politically correct language of its latest annual report published in November, is insisting on certain points more openly than ever. Here are some of the most significant warnings:

- more than 50% of the world's oil fields have reached their production peaks, and will decline in the future;

- investments in the development of hydrocarbon production are expected to fall to 450 billion dollars in 2016, against a record amount of more than 700 billion before the prices fell;

- the annual discoveries are at their lowest level in 70 years;

- by 2025, a lack of 16 million barrels per day is expected, the equivalent of the production of Saudi Arabia and Iran, to fill the gap between the expected level of output and the decline in current production (94,5 Mb/d in 2015);

- this gap can be filled by new resources, provided that the investments quickly rise to more than 700 billion $, their record before the fall in oil prices (hypothesis of the "New Policies Scenario", see below) ;



More alarmist, the bank HSBC (which had already shown its concern about peak oil), highlighted the following facts in a September report entitled "Will the decline of mature fields lead to the next oil crisis? "

- at least 64% of world production is declining;

- by 2040 it will be necessary to develop more than 40 Mb/d of new resources (nearly half of the world production, or the equivalent of four Saudi Arabia) only to maintain the production at its Current level;

- small oil fields generally decline 2 times faster than large ones, and the world production of crude oil is increasingly dependent on small fields;

- "significant improvements in the production and efficiency of drilling in response to falling prices have masked the underlying decline rates experienced by many companies, but the degree to which these improvements can continue is becoming limited ".

It is necessary that the prices of the barrel go up, and quickly, in order to boost investments, otherwise the peak oil is likely to be imminent, warned the IEA and HSBC.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has been reiterating (for the last two years) that his main fear is that "investments may collapse, which could have major implications for security of supply in the years to come ".

An observation confirmed since September by eminent industry actors such as Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih ("If we do not plan enough investment, the world will pay a huge price in the form of shortages of oil "), or Total's CEO, Patrick Pouyanné (" if we do not invest enough ... In 2020, the offer will be insufficient ").

But can the prices of the barrel go up quickly enough?

Despite the cuts in production that OPEC members and several other producing countries, notably Russia, have committed to implement in the coming months, no major source of analysis anticipates a return of the crude oil at around $ 100 a barrel, the level that prevailed when investment was at its highest.

On the demand side, the evolution of the world economic situation leaves little room for anticipating a sharp increase in the prices of the barrel.

"Globalization" seems to be slowing down, despite historically low interest rates, judging by the evolution of international trade:
(https://i.ibb.co/gSXy32x/710553-Worldtradebyvolume2000-May2016.jpg)

The growth of world trade is historically closely linked to overall economic growth.

By far the main engine of this global growth, China's economy, highly dependent on its exports, is particularly threatened by the slowdown in international trade.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is ready to abandon the minimum target of 6.5% annual growth so far sanctified by Beijing, according to an indiscretion reported by the Bloomberg agency. At stake: concerns about the development of the Chinese debt, and an international environment made more uncertain by the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency.

The level of indebtedness of Chinese companies alone reached 171% of China's GDP in 2015, according to Standard & Poor's, twice as much as in the United States and Europe. While before the 2008 crisis, China needed a dollar of debt to generate a dollar of GDP, the ratio is now six dollars of debt to one dollar of GDP, reports Morgan Stanley!

Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and professor at Harvard, Kenneth Rogoff warned in a forum translated and published by Les Echos in early December:

    "Current markets are obsessed with the question of how far the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the next twelve months. They seem to lack long-term vision. The real concern should be on this other issue: Will it be able to lower rates in the next major recession? Given its difficulty in ensuring that its base rate will exceed 2% next year, there will be very little room for maneuver to make cuts in the event of a recession. (...) There may not be enough time before the next deep recession to lay the foundation for an effective policy of negative interest rates or to set a higher inflation target. But this is no excuse for not starting to examine these options closely. "

In other words, the growth potential of the global economy could be too low to sustain global oil production, our prime source of energy. This hypothesis, which seems to appear on the one hand, is a result of too low a rise in the incomes of the middle classes and on the other hand an excessive increase in the various costs induced by the necessarily increasing complexity of our technical societies.

The coming months are going to be instructive: "May you live in interesting times" ...


(https://i.ibb.co/sgPbkxG/759942-C1-So-Mp7-XUsmall.jpg)

Let's hope that as you say oil starts to become scarce and the price begins to climb. It's the only way alternative sources of energy will become viable. That will not happen as long as the price of oil is on the floor.

tonight, I'm going to answer the people of the forum, like shadow.97, who are probably wondering what my prognosis are in the current context.

Well, I’ve already been right several times. Those who bought some EDF, -22% in one year (http://www.boursorama.com/cours.phtml?symbole=1rPEDF) know it: I told you to stay away from this stock one year ago:
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg26271#msg26271

Now, what can I say? Well, I’m still advising you to stay away from the stock markets (I already said that a few days ago). Indeed, I think that 2017 is going to be a turning point: arrival of Trump, implementation of the Brexit, steep rise in oil prices.

Actually, the pro-growth policies likely to be enacted in the first half of 2017 by Trump, including corporate and personal tax cuts, increased spending on infrastructure and defense, and deregulation, may help to boost economic growth in 2017 and increase the economy’s potential growth rate (while changing the mix of growth drivers). But this is already taken into accounty by the markets?
However, they may also lead to some of the “overs” that tend to emerge at the end of expansions (overconfidence, overborrowing, overspending), naturally accelerating the economic cycle and bringing a recession sooner than otherwise might have been the case.

As far as oil is concerned, forecasts from the IEA suggest that oil prices will continue to rise gradually because the supply surplus is nearly gone and may soon be replaced by a supply shortfall. Given the huge number of exploration projects that have been trimmed back or canceled, discovery rates have fallen off a cliff. We can probably anticipate an actual oil supply crunch once demand exceeds the ability of OPEC spare capacity and American shale oil production to offset it, which could occur in 2017. A steep rise in oil price would inevitably trigger another recession.

If I had to give you my scenario for this year, well, taking into account the level of the stock markets, I’m expecting a 20% correction. And I think I’m rather optimistic.


(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2016/12/1483139274_d.jpg)



For the new users of the forum, some goodies:
Zion++ Fuchsia : https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4NsBhRUPihXUnRBYUhtVFNwZkk
The latest version of Flash AIO: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4NsBhRUPihXeGlEV2V1RE9YeUE

Lately, we have seen that shadow.97 was a bit disappointed, because he can’t find what he’s looking for on the forum : some very interesting messages.
That’s why tonight, I’m going to hold another conference about stock markets.

Actually, my strategy did not change. Since the stock markets have reached a stratospheric level, I’m not buying any stock any longer. (Yesterday I must say I was tempted to buy some Adocia stocks after the recent collapse, and it lost 13% today, once again).
This morning I sold ¼ of my position of an inverse EFT based on the s&p 500 (I made tiny capital gains). I prefer to be cautious, if the s&p 500 is climbing, I will buy some inverse ETF once again.
But in my opinion, a rounding top is forming and a bearish scenario is taking shape (after the trump bubble, this could be the kiss-cool effect).

According to another analyst that I’m quoting:
“The cyclical bull market in stocks that began in early 2009 has developed into one of the largest and most speculative bubbles of the past 100 years. Further, at a current duration of nearly eight years, the latest cyclical top is long overdue and could form at any time.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/pic80abf13d3cd3d4962a0dfa1c68f97c5d.png)

In terms of real GDP growth, the current economic expansion has been the weakest since the end of the Great Depression.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/pice07a0f16c9b72f2488e6fdda8c60890b.png)

If economic growth has been so poor during the past eight years, why has the stock market experienced such a strong advance during that time? Why is the S&P 500 index up a staggering 240% from the low in March 2009?
Those gains have been fueled primarily by the Federal Reserve and its reckless stimulus policies that have targeted risk assets such as stocks. By holding short-term interest rates near zero for seven years, the Federal Reserve has encouraged malinvestment and speculation while punishing saving, in the process creating massive market distortions and imbalances.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/picfab09cef5439c9c07744e56bf814bc3c.png)

As a result, the current risk/reward profile of the stock market from an investment perspective is at one of the two highest levels of the past 100 years. Only the peak in 2000 during the dotcom bubble created a more overvalued market than the current one.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/pic204de3377a3165c5eeb85164679d799d.png)

The current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index is now over 25 and it is priced to deliver slightly negative annual returns during the coming decade. Think about that. The stock market will likely be at or below current levels ten years from now. That is because there is always a cost for manipulating markets to this degree, and, in this case, the cost will ultimately prove to be severe. In essence, the Federal Reserve has pulled future gains into the present, setting the stage for many years of extremely poor performance.
Of course, because bubbles are highly irrational by nature, predicting the timing of their demise with any useful degree of statistical confidence is difficult. However, careful analysis of market data can indicate when a bubble is on the verge of collapse.
Our computer models monitor a large basket of data that have, historically, provided reliable signals with respect to long-term direction, and right now several indicators suggest that the current bubble is vulnerable. For example, our cyclical valuation and sentiment scores, which vary from an extremely bullish value of 100 to an extremely bearish value of -100, are both near bearish extremes.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/picfc4ee647c72b63c7a222d58b9dc43eb5.png)

Additionally, although market internal data such as breadth and volume have yet to exhibit similar weakness, both currently display the early signs of a negative divergence. Volume summation has started trending lower after forming a top in December that was much lower than the previous peak in July.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/pic2250956d0f414e272dce59edd51556bd.png)

From an intermediate-term perspective, the stock market may also be in the process of reversing. In early November, our computer models correctly predicted the formation of the latest intermediate-term low, but after five weeks of strength, the S&P 500 index has struggled to move higher during the past six weeks.
A cycle high setup occurred this week, suggesting that an intermediate-term cycle high (ITCH) may have formed in early January. A cycle high signal could occur as soon as next week, so market behavior should be monitored carefully during the next several sessions.
As always, it is important to remember that a long-term top is a process, not an event. Anything can happen over short-term time periods, but the key to having consistent success over the long run as an investor and a trader is to stay aligned with the most likely scenarios and protect yourself from the unlikely ones.
There will come a time when the risk/reward profile of stocks is once again favorable and the judicious study of market data will signal when that next long opportunity develops, just as it did in March 2009. However, now is a time for extreme caution and we remain fully defensive from an investment perspective.”

That's an awesome analysis and I registered her just to say how grateful I am. You're very smart.
I have a few questions. How often do you read the finance news? Which resource do you trust the most?
Because I read Yahoo finance and usually read the news when I'm on the way home on my smartphone. I find Yahoo apk very useful (take it from here theappsdepot (https://theappsdepot.com/) for Android, but I'm sure that for IOS you can find it at the Apple Store)

Quote from: Aris99 on February 08, 2017, 03:49 PM
That's an awesome analysis and I registered her just to say how grateful I am. You're very smart.
I have a few questions. How often do you read the finance news? Which resource do you trust the most?
Because I read Yahoo finance and usually read the news when I'm on the way to home on my smartphone. I find Yahoo apk very useful (take it from here theappsdepot (https://theappsdepot.com/) for Android, but I'm sure that for IOS you can find it the Apple Store)

Well, aris99, There is nothing brilliant in what I said here.
Actually, the analysis is mine, but the graphics are taken from the French website “objectifeco.com”.
Besides, I’m just trying to be consistent in my approach. Currently, the stock markets are expensive, and I think that the economy is not doing particularly well, it could even slump in the next months, for a number of reasons, including the rise in oil price and the specter of growing protectionism. In the United States, more and more people are out of work, I don't think those are the sign of a recovery (the new hires do not offset the rise in the working population).

From that slant, I’m just saying that you shouldn’t invest, the risk/reward is not good. Actually, I’ve bought inverse ETF and I have losses. Once again, I know an investor (fomerly known as father baboon), who is earning some money with a fund based on Gold stocks (btw, Newmont mining and goldcorp stocks climbed today). In the current context, the price of gold is climbing again, after a poor start to the year, and this trend could continue.
In my opinion, there is a stock market bubble, it’s quite clear for certain companies listed on the nasdaq (I advise against buying amazon or Facebook, they are terribly expensive), and I’m almost certain it will explode, the question is: when?
But in the short term, It seems I'm wrong. Even if the stock markets are not climbing any more, they are not going down either. It seems they don't know where to go. If they begin to plunge (notably the US stock markets), the downside potential is significant anyway.

Thank you, scarface! That is amazing that you make all analysis, as for me it's like a magic, to understand and predict the numbers, rates... I had a quick loo to objectifeco.com but French is not favorite language :)
You gave me an excellent advice, I'm very grateful!

P.S. It can be offtopic but you are quietly right about our situation with a labor market in our country. But my opinion that is a fault of our education system and the wrong choice of profession. We feel a lack of medical personal and highly educated blue-collar worker.

Today, I'm holding an interesting conference in this topic, and I'm going justify, with various arguments, my previous analysis (the bubble on the stock markets, and why it could be about to pop). I hope Aris99, and some critics, like shadow.97, will be there to read it.

So Here are some evidence of the biggest financial bubble of all time

The "big ugly bubble" that Trump, then presidential candidate, had identified about the American markets is real. Financial bubbles have multiple facets (China, the real estate market, etc.). This list is by no means exhaustive. But here are some graphs I selected that are proving that we are in the presence of many bubbles. The larger these bubbles, the more severe the damage will be when they burst.


1. The trap of low rates:  the economist Lance Roberts explained with great clarity how interest rates and economic growth are linked. The real Fed key rate that can be seen stagnating below shows the quagmire into which the American central bank have sunk.

(https://cdn.publications-agora.com/elements/lca/newsletter/images/contenu/170210_LCA_taux_small.jpg)

According to Lance Roberts' explanation: "Yellen and the Fed are once again on the hunt for the imaginary 'scarecrow' of inflation - the latter is currently weaker than during any pre-recession period since the 1970s. The tightening of monetary policy, with already weak economic growth, can once again become problematic. The biggest fear of the Federal Reserve? The Inflationary pressures which continue to depress the national economy. Despite the billions of dollars injected by the Fed, the only real objective was to prevent the economy from falling into a full recession."


2. The slaves of the debt in view of the risk of the debt ratios, something that the Americans know well. From car financing to mortgages, debt is part of their everyday lives - and keeps growing.

(https://cdn.publications-agora.com/elements/lca/newsletter/images/contenu/170210_LCA_dette.jpg)

Wolf Richter wrote: "There are many ways to measure household debt and debt burdens. Comparing total household debt to the overall size of the economy as measured by GDP is one such measure. According to the household debt / GDP measure, Americans ranked tenth in the world with a ratio of 78.8%. One could almost speak of caution on their part compared to the peak reached just before the 2008 financial crisis.

3. Over-indebted China: Goldman Sachs revealed its estimate of the size of China's debt ... The level of public and private debt appears disproportionate to the size of the economy and growth.

(https://cdn.publications-agora.com/elements/lca/newsletter/images/contenu/170210_LCA_chine.jpg)

These indicators were designed by Goldman Sachs research. According to the latter, the current trend "raises the question of the medium-term sustainability of the Chinese economy, given the already very high debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years. "




So the question is: where is the needle that will burst the bubble? On January 3, 2017 Bill Bonner answered one of his readers who followed his advice and stayed out of the market (missing the recent rise): "Yes ... it's true. We have been cautious for a very long time. We see that the whole financial system is distorted, fragile and dangerous. As long as prices continue to climb, an investor can earn money by taking long positions on stocks. But in our opinion, the game was not worth the effort. We prefer to wait until the bubble explodes. When will this happen? Today ? Tomorrow? In five years ? Traditionally a bull market lasts 52 months. This one has now lasted 94 months. And the stocks price is visibly at the top of its range, and not at the bottom ... the S&P500 valuation currently represents 28 times the profits adjusted for cyclical variations. This is almost twice the 16 times that are the rule usually. To return to a more normal level, the equity market should lose more than one-third of its value, or nearly $ 7 trillion. Yes, stocks can still rise. The bull market could go on. But the risks increase every day that passes and every dollar earned."




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3xFJUCSOGs

One year ago, I held a conference about CGG (formerly known as CGG veritas), a leading geoscience company, and I was saying that you should avoid the stock of this company (by talking about a dire situation): http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg20727#msg20727
It's always interesting to come back and see if I was right.

(http://www.meretmarine.com/objets/39010.jpg)

One year later, its stock is worth 9 euros, against 65 euros when I was talking about it (the day before a capital increase, hence the 50% drop on 14 January). On 24 october 2016 it was standing at 27 euros and a few months later it lost 2 third of its value, standing at 9 euros.
(https://i.ibb.co/3srf5M3/300418cgg.png)

Well, since there is practically no more oil to be found, we can understand that this company does not make money any more. So I still advise you to forget this stock, despite the dilutive capital increase that took place on 14 january 2016 and its current price (the company still has a 2 billion dollars debt, and unless a new call on the markets, the company is heading for a bankruptcy). By the way, Portzamparc is stating that a new capital increase and a debt-to-equity swap is quite probable.

Well, tonight I’m going to talk about snapchat, which was recently introduced on the stock exchange.


Snap, the app known for automatically deleting every photo and video shared on its platform after 24 hours, went public on the New York Stock Exchange. It was valued at about US$28 billion by investors and traders after surging almost 44 percent in a single day.
But is it really worth it when it’s losing so much money ? (more than US$500 million in just 2016).
Tonight,  it seems that this bubble is bursting, as the stock is currently losing 8%.
By the way, Marc Fiorentino, a French specialist of the financial markets, recently said in his newsletter that the valuation of Snap was “ridiculous”.

To put things into perspective, this is a list of tech firms that are losing millions upon millions of dollars every year but valued to be billion-dollar companies: Snap, Box, Twitter, Zynga, Instagram, Amazon, BlackBerry, Pandora, Weibo, Zillow, Sprint, Square, JD.com, Sony...
Could this be a sign that we’re in a tech bubble?
If all these tech startups and companies are losing money, quarter after quarter, why are investors still flocking to them? It’s most probably because of their belief in “disruptive innovation” and the firms’ abilities to do it.

The focus of these tech companies and startups right now is just growth. Nothing else seems to matter and that’s probably one of the biggest reasons why Uber, for example, is losing money so fast.
Other huge tech companies include Uber, Spotify and Airbnb on the most anticipated 2017 IPO list, which are supposedly considered the hottest IPOs particularly because of their estimated valuations.
But it isn’t too comforting to know that only Airbnb among those three is making profits in the most recent reports. Even then, this is Airbnb’s first time being profitable.



Undoubtedly, no one can ever predict the exact time of the next financial crisis. It may not exactly be a tech bust, it could be Trump‘s radical policies or it could even be a war.
In an episode of a popular Youtube show where multi-millionaire entrepreneur and coach Gary Vaynerchuk invited multi-billionaire business owner, author and coach Anthony “Tony” Robbins, they talked about an impending stock market crash.
They opined that the very fact of how everyone is so bullish about the economy, despite the eight-year long bull run, scares them.
Staying in cash and waiting for the opportunity is an advice that they gave. Those who are prepared when the opportunities arise will stand to benefit the most.

Well, since my piece of advice to sell snap, it roughly lost 14% (It finally lost 12% yesterday and 10% today). I think it's not over though. In my opinion, it's not worth more than a 2 dollars, but it seems the markets is not very rational lately.

Besides, I wanted to talk about the latest events occurring in North Korea. Clearly, that does not bode well for stock markets if a war breaks out in Asia.
Indeed, North Korea has warned that US and South Korean joint military exercises could result in “actual war.”
(https://www.nknews.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/kim-jong-un-632017.jpg)

North Korean diplomat Ju Yong Choi described the joint military exercises as “massive, unprecedented” and a “major cause of escalation of tension that might turn into actual war,” reported Reuters.
The diplomat, speaking in Geneva to a UN-sponsored conference on disarmament, said the ongoing exercises were aimed at conducting a “pre-emptive nuclear attack” against Pyongyang.
The latest comments come amid rising tensions on the peninsula, with the US deploying the first elements of its anti-missile defence system to South Korea.
In response, US Disarmament Ambassador Robert Wood said North Korea was "a pariah, an outlier" which violated international laws with its ballistic missile and nuclear tests.

Kim Jong Un may be crazy but he's not stupid. He knows it he starts a war it's game over for him and his regime. You can bet borrowed money his "ally" China will turn its back on him.

I often wonder if all those horrible things you hear about North Korea are actually true. The press and the government's propaganda machine are notorious for lying, or at least exaggerating the truth.

Tonight, I have good news for humbert.
Indeed, Trumpcare is probably dead even if Congress is going to vote on it anyway.

Despite hours of debate, last-minute amendments, and even an ultimatum from despot Trump, Republican lawmakers likely don’t have the votes to pass the party’s health care plan. But the White House says they’re going to hold the vote anyway.

And yet hours after House Speaker Paul Ryan visited the White House, apparently to break the news to Trump, Spicer said the vote would proceed anyway, at around 3:30 p.m.

Ryan’s visit was the latest bad omen in a day of developments that seemingly signaled defeat for the Obamacare-replacement bill, just hours before it was due up for a vote.

As a consequence, Wall Street is tumbling tonight, at least it's only a pretext since the market is terribly expensive. It's not what mnuchin thinks, he just said today he was very bullish and upbeat about the upside potential once Trump's measures are implemented (to ruin the American middle class).
Well, as for me, I'm very optimistic for the markets too (and a lot of my previous forecasts on this forum turned out to be accurate): I still believe that the dow jones and the s&p 500 are very expensive, and that there is a 40% downward potential.

I totally agree. This despot Trump and the Republican fatcats are trying to deny health care to those that can't afford it so they won't have to pay taxes to support the system. Not only do these people make astronomical amounts of money, the their health care insurance payments don't even come out of their paychecks! One of their many companies takes care of that, then they write it off as an expense on their tax declaration. Truly their greed knows no bounds. Sadly this is only a temporary victory, rest assured the profiteers will not give up. Let's see for how much longer. Hopefully the guy who predicted Trump's victory is right -- he predicts an impeachment will happen.

Today, the European stock markets are crumbling on fears that Marine le Pen could be elected in France.
In this context, I sold 8% of my short positions with some capital gains. I'm still waiting for a stock market crash of the s&p 500, which is, in my opinion, one of the most overvalued markets in the world with a price earning ratio of 26.

Quote from: scarface on April 18, 2017, 01:42 PM
Today, the European stock markets are crumbling on fears that Marine le Pen could be elected in France.

People always imagine the worst scenario. Even it Marine gets elected, keep in mind she doesn't have the backing of most of the French people. At last count only 21.5% supported her, meaning that 79.5% don't. Only a dictator can get anything done with that kind of support.

A few months ago, I told you to avoid snap stocks, since I think it's an empty shell with virtually no activities. Today I feel vindicated.
Indeed, When Snap listed its shares on the New York Stock Exchange in March, the floor of the exchange was festooned in the company’s signature yellow. Family members of Snap executives posed for photographs; some wore the company’s video-recording Spectacles. And as Snap’s two 20-something founders rang the opening bell, the crowd â€" including one of the founder’s fathers and a supermodel fiancée â€" applauded.

Yet just two months into its life as a public company, Snap’s celebration may already be ending.

On Wednesday, Snap, the parent of the messaging app Snapchat, reported earnings that missed Wall Street expectations in almost every regard. Not only did Snap record a $2.2 billion loss for the first quarter, its revenue was lighter than expected, and the company disclosed that its user growth was decelerating sharply. Investors punished the company, sending its stock down more than 25 percent in after-hours trading.

Today the stock markets are declining on speculation that Mario Draghi’s ECB is poised to reduce unprecedented monetary stimulus. That sent yields higher, damping the allure of the non-interest-bearing metal.
In this environment, I'm convinced that markets are due for a correction. Politics, global instability, Greek Crisis, overvalued U.S. stock markets, debt limit, and declining GDP growth are several other warning signs.


But let's talk about Greece. After all, this is perhaps the country where we will go, if there is no more cheap oil. Not because it's economically healthy, otherwise we would go to West Bank, Palestine, which has a growth rate of 4% but because of it's geographic situation and also because several users of the forum could host us. What's more, Palestine, like Israel, is probably overwhelmed with applications for asylum. With a vip pass, like a Syrian or Eritrean passport, you can apply for asylum. But if you come from Sweden, Egypt, France, India, or Pakistan, you won't get anything. At least it would be possible for me to live in Greece, since I'm a European citizen.

(https://i.ibb.co/vsG8rBR/voyage-grece1.jpg)

So let's talk about the situation in Greece with a conference, titled "From the economic crisis to the demographic crisis".

The recession that has hit the country is accompanied by an unprecedented demographic crisis: the population is aging and declining, women have few children, and young people are leaving the country.

In Greece, according to Médecins du Monde, nearly one in four women born in the 1970s has no children. And the number of births has declined steadily since the start of the crisis according to Elstat, the Greek Statistics Authority, from 114 766 in 2010 to 94 134 in 2013 and 91 847 In 2015.

The Greek population is decreasing. It has fallen from 11.1 million in 2011 to 10.8 million in 2016. "The net balance between births and deaths has been negative since 2011 and this trend will accentuate: the number of deaths will increase because the generations who were born after the 1950s, in the years of the Greek baby boom, are now over 65 years old. Births will not increase as women of childbearing age do not make up a large part of the population and the fertility rate remains low, "said Vironas Kotsamanis, a professor of demography at the University of Thessaloniki.

Before the crisis, the Greek fertility rate was already standing at 1.5, and by 2012 it has dropped to 1.3 children per woman, while it must be at least two children per woman to ensure the renewal of generations. At the Rea private maternity clinic, Antonia Charitou, director of the Neonatal Unit, observes that "women have only one child now and usually quite late, after 30".

Ambient pessimism
Low wages, unemployment which affects 27% of women against 20% of men, ambient pessimism (according to the 2015 Eurobarometer, 70% of Greeks believe that the economic situation will deteriorate, compared with 46% across the Union European) have certainly influenced fertility at a time when it was beginning to increase again.

"The absence of family policy and the cuts in social spending demanded by the country's creditors [European Central Bank, European Union, International Monetary Fund] have also not encouraged women to have fewer children," says Vironas Kotsamanis. The allowances for a third child are ridiculous in Greece, around 50 euros per month. "

But Antonia Charitou also cites another reason for this low birth rate: "Young women who are now 30 years old and older have grown up in years of prosperity in Greece, when children were spoilt, attended private language classes, Extra-curricular activities. They want to offer their children the same way of life but it is not possible with the crisis ... "

The Scourge of Exodus
And there is an extra scourge for the Greek society: the exodus of an entire generation under the age of 40, of reproductive age. According to a survey published in July 2016 by Endeavor Greece, a network of young entrepreneurs, 350,000 Greeks reportedly expatriated between 2008 and 2016.

The demographic crisis does not bode well for the economy of the already exhausted country. "In about ten years, Greece will lose a large number of assets, notes, bitter, Vironas Kotsamanis. The population who can consume is decreasing, pension funds and the health care system will explode because people aged 85 and over are growing faster than other groups. It's difficult to be optimistic for the future of Greece in these conditions! "

Last Friday evening, I read that the US Senate has passed the tax reform bill, and I think things will go awry in the US.
First off, Wall Street climbed and I was thinking that the debt problem was over: Donald Tramp decided to give all his fortune, out of generosity, to tackle indebtedness. Of course, this is not the case.

A French specialist, who worked at the Fed a few years ago, wrote an article titled "open bar on the Titanic". Here is a little excerpt:
"If I had been asked to come up with a plan that would maximize the budget deficit while generating as little economic benefit as possible, I would have took the one the US Senate has just adopted.
This tax reform massively lowers taxes on the wealthiest businesses and households, and this is paid by the vast majority of households. They are just enjoying a few temporary tax cuts to beautify the packaging.

A deficit without growth stimulus.
Such a deficit will do nothing for growth. A great deal of research has shown that fiscal stimulus can work, but according to very specific criteria. The best effect is achieved by targeted measures on households that will spend the aid received rather than saving it, or on investments supporting economic activity such as infrastructure spending. The Senate plan goes against these revenues.
The wealthiest households will not increase their spending. As for American companies, their profits are doing well. They do not face any financial constraints that would hamper their investments."

The article is here: https://blogs.letemps.ch/cedric-tille/2017/12/03/politique-fiscale-de-trump-open-bar-sur-le-titanic/

Oddly enough, a few months before the 1929 stock market crash, the same fiscal policies were applied by Andrew Melon, and at that time we could see the same complacency toward the stock market.
(https://fthmb.tqn.com/puVXeJtbP_A1q4B_TSJ171K9q0c=/1024x717/filters:no_upscale():fill(transparent,1)/GettyImages-51311238-585d7e163df78ce2c31d3706.jpg)





Mr Baboon
(https://guardian.ng/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Baboon.jpg)

Tonight, I’m going to hold an exceptional conference about Bitcoin.


Gold will replace the "bitcoin" and it's not the "bitcoin" that will replace gold.

(https://i.ibb.co/9Z3RwyP/Napoleon20-F.jpg)

There is no point in talking for hours about the brilliant "blockchain" technique to justify the value of "bitcoin". This technique is the tree that hides the forest. A "bitcoin" is not based on anything and is worthless if it is not the price at which fools want to buy it in a mega-system Ponzi which is nothing but a repetition in the XXI century of the famous speculative crisis of tulip bulbs in Holland in the 17th century. Just as it is impossible to prevent people, if they wish, from throwing themselves from the top of the Eiffel Tower, it is not possible to prevent people from ruining themselves! The only real value of "bitcoin" is the market value of the blockchain technology patent.

This technology, which has freed itself from state intervention, has as guarantor only an algorithm and relies on the only value given by the mass of buyers of "bitcoin". His creator is unknown and he threw the key at the bottom of the well after the design of the "blockchain". The ones who are able to create "bitcoins" are only those who have a computing capacity with computer farms, with the technical capacity to issue them.

Some technocrats evoke Metcalfe's law that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its users. What they forget is that a hundred times zero, that's still zero! But they are confusing the value of the network of "bitcoin" users with the value of "bitcoin". A second technocratic tree is thus added to the technological tree to hide the forest of nothingness and absolute emptiness of the "bitcoin".
The value of the "bitcoin" is in fact based on the confidence that imbeciles, speculators and mafia give it. The "bitcoin" is not backed by any central authority and it is likely that states will one day wring its neck. Morocco, after China and Vietnam, is the last state that has just banned "bitcoin".
The "bitcoin", created on January 3, 2009, had an ultra volatile price below $ 20 until its real flight in 2013, with a bubble explosion each year. The "bitcoin" that has just reached $ 14,000 is rising to the sky. Some rejoice when it is actually the harbinger of a crash worse than 1929 and the economic, political, civilizational apocalypse that threatens us.
Irresponsible monetary policies, the hyper-indebtedness of governments, companies and individuals in most countries of the world (China, Japan, emerging countries included), unlike 1929, where the problems were confined mainly to Europe and United States, the real figures of unemployment, hidden in France or the United States of 20%, the catastrophic ratios of the Italian banks, the American public and commercial deficit, the dollar attacked by China as the main currency of the oil contracts: It smells more like apocalypse than a simple crash ahead. In case of bankruptcy of the states and a real unemployment rate of 40%, the suburbs of lawlessness could behave in France as in Saint Martin, after the hurricane.
In 1913 the total debt of the United States amounted to 39 billion dollars. Today it is $ 70 trillion, 1800 times more. Interest rates are now 1.5% in the United States; tomorrow they will inevitably reach 15-20%. And while the Dow Jones fell by 90% between 1929 and 1932, the Nasdaq declined by 80% between 2000 and 2002. The Dow Jones which was at 1000 in 1982 is now around 23,400.

It is likely that in the next crash an unlimited monetary impression will occur and that the world will look like Germany in 1923, with dollar and euro currencies worth zero. The only real natural "bitcoin" since Nebuchadnezzar, gold, will then be worth $ 15,000 or $ 80,000, much more than the current "bitcoin" of men. Gold will replace the "bitcoin" and the "bitcoin" will not replace gold.

Tonight, I'm going to give you a video in which a specialist is warning against the current stock market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N9I8wesVB8


Here are a few charts to understand that there is currently a bubble.


(http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/US-EPS-SP500-2017-07.png)

Given that there has been zero earnings growth over the past three years, even under the most optimistic “adjusted earnings” scenario, and only about 2% per year on average over the past five years, the S&P 500 companies are not high-growth companies. On average, they’re stagnating companies with stagnating earnings. And the price-earnings ratio for stagnating companies should be low. In 2012 it was around 15.5. As of July 7, it is nearly 26, and now it's roughly 28...
(http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/US-SP500-pe-ratios-2012-2017-07-07.png)

Today, I’m going to give you my forecasts for 2018.


(https://rmarks6.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/tv-2018.jpg?w=616)


I’m predicting a s&p 500 at 1600 points and a bitcoin between...0 and 2000$ by the end of 2018. It’s pretty ambitious and actually, knowing that the s&p 500 is currentlystanding at 2673 points and that the Bitcoin is worth 12330$, but I think that the stock and bitcoin bubbles are going to burst.


As far as the stock markets are concerned, the reason is simple: Many markets are overvalued today, and more particularly the US stock markets. You can obtain more clues in the previous messages.
As for Bitcoin,Well, today it is losing 15% at 12330$...and It’s probably not over. It reached 18000$, and after a 40% collapse, we have seen a dead cat bounce up to 15000$. But the decline would likely continue.
I issued a warning a few days ago, and I hope you listened to me.


Here is an interesting analysis, at least I agree with the specialist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6pA2ZkMvL8


The Winklevoss twins talk about Bitcoin futures in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSx77HKF-K4
Those ones are the first Billionaires in bitcoin, but I’m pretty sure we are going to see the homeless in bitcoin soon enough.

Tonight, I'm going to talk about Bitcoin.

Is the bubble bursting tonight?
We have a typical pattern of Shoulder head shoulder, and it may indicate that the bubble is going to burst completely (it means a return to 2000$).
Actually, I think Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will crumble since central banks are going to tighten their policies.

(https://image.ibb.co/bwDTrm/bitc.png)


As for the s&p 500, I think it could go back to 1300 points.
Look at Amazon for example: a valuation of 600 Billion $. For the first time in 2016, the firm made profits, but with this valuation, it has a Price Earning Ratio of 250!
It also represents a whopping amount of 1 300 000$ per employee! (but many are only earning minimal wage). So if you work at Amazon, that's good, you can say: for Wall Street, I'm worth 1 300 000$. I feel that aa1234779 must be already sending an application. But wait. They are worth 1 300 000$ only for the shareholders. And it probably just means there is a bubble.
Amazon is a typical example of overvalued stock, but in Wall Street the whole market is actually very expensive. If humbert or Ahmad currently have American stocks, well, maybe it's time you recognized gains.

hii. I can't understand this topic please tell meany one this topic thank you.
ISO 22000 Certification in Oman (http://www.certvalue.com/iso-22000-certification-Oman/)

Tonight, I’m issuing a red alert on the stock markets.

Here is an article of le Monde, in French, published yesterday, which says “All the indicators for the stock markets are flashing red”
http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2018/01/29/beaucoup-de-clignotants-sont-deja-a-l-orange-voire-au-rouge-sur-les-bourses_5248637_3232.html

A plausible scenario: (https://image.ibb.co/eiTx8m/dowjones.png)


And here is an interesting documentary about oil shale, the illusion of energy independence for the US.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkbc0-bXFBs
Art Berman, 40-year veteran in the petroleum production industry and respected geological consultant, returns to the podcast this week to talk about oil. After the price of oil fell from its previous $100+/bbl highs to under $30/bbl in 2015, many declared dead the concerns raised by peak oil theorists. Headlines selling the "shale miracle" have sought to convince us that the US will one day eclipse Saudi Arabia in oil production. In short: cheap, plentiful oil is here to stay.
How likely is this? Not at all, warns Berman. World demand for oil shows no signs of abating while the outlook for future production looks increasingly scant. And the competition among nations for this "master resource" will be much more intense in future decades than we've been used to.

Well, let's talk about oil.
On Friday, Exxon, Chevron shares plunged after weak results spook Wall Street.

Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp posted rare quarterly earnings misses on Friday as cost cuts and rising oil prices failed to offset weakness in international refining operations, sending shares of both companies plunging.

The results surprised Wall Street, where analysts had been steadily raising expectations due to stronger crude prices and a rebounding global economy, according to Thomson Reuters data.

But excluding U.S. tax benefits, results at both companies fell short of expectations, casting a cloud over the U.S. oil industry just days after the nation’s output surpassed a milestone 10 million barrels per day.


Here is a conference about peak oil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVoDYha8ZRM&t=154s

And here is why humbert and aa1234779 had better sell their stocks, we could be facing a crash if interest rates keep rising: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-43-BrQd8M

Sudan devalued its currency for the second time this year, the US Dollar is 40+ Sudanse pounds from just 6.9 before the first devaluation, and 2 pounds in 2007.

http://aa.com.tr/en/africa/for-2nd-time-this-year-sudan-devalues-local-currency/1055144

It seems that neither siding with Ethiopia, Qatar, and Turkey nor Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and UAE is helping any.

Not even the recent lifting of US sanctions against Sudan.

For many men and women of the country, paying those bills and putting food on the table will cause lots of stress on them, and could lead to unwanted consequences by Omar Al-Basheer's government, which has displayed ruthlessness with non-violent demands.

Anyone with knowledge of the Sudanese terrain, whether south or north, is surprised that the surplus of water in the two Niles, the fertile grounds that could be a paradise on earth haven't been taken advantage of to feed the local or regional & international markets..

There is this kind of self-pity saying that Arab intellectuals say a lot for decades, Egypt and Sudan could have been the Arab world's food basket.

Now with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which is very likely to affect the amount of water streaming north, that dream is harder and harder to be accomplished.

There has been a stand-off between Sudan/Ethiopia vs Egypt/Eritrea in the past few weeks and things could escalate God forbid.

I remember I read in the Bible that there will be wars and rumors of wars. Let's hope that there won't be another war in the Arab region as around 6 countries are already going at it.

As a believer, I know for sure this is God's will, but what are the direct reasons that it has to be us Arabs and Muslims and Africans that have to deal with this crap this time around?

Why us?

Quote from: aa1234779 on February 06, 2018, 01:50 PM
Sudan devalued its currency for the second time this year, the US Dollar is 40+ Sudanse pounds from just 6.9 before the first devaluation, and 2 pounds in 2007.

There is this kind of self-pity saying that Arab intellectuals say a lot for decades, Egypt and Sudan could have been the Arab world's food basket.

I remember I read in the Bible that there will be wars and rumors of wars. Let's hope that there won't be another war in the Arab region as around 6 countries are already going at it.

As a believer, I know for sure this is God's will, but what are the direct reasons that it has to be us Arabs and Muslims and Africans that have to deal with this crap this time around?

Why us?

Egypt devalued its currency recently too. As for Sudan, well, when I read your message I have the impression it's the garden of Eden. The situation in Southern Sudan is not very good. I hope our friend Ahmad, from Egypt, has not gone there. Since 2015 he has not given signs of life. And when you say they could be the Arab world's food basket, well, once again, it could be true if these countries were less populated. Egypt is importing 80% of its food, with its 90 million inhabitants, thanks to oil. Did god curse the Arab world? That's a good question indeed. In some places, you'll notice there are conflicts where there are commodities such as oil or rare metals. Oil and gas are a bonanza for countries such as Qatar, UAE or Saudi Arabia, but they also prevent structural changes.


By next Tuesday, note there will be another release of windows 10 x64, this time with an automatic and silent activation. There will be a repack of Dishonored DotO too, faster and smaller than fitgirl's repack. The first tests are successful, but I need time to reecode bk2 files since nobody on the forum is helping.

Tonight, I'm going to talk about my forecasts concerning the stock markets.
After the rebound, I think we are headed for a new crash on the stock market.

(https://preview.ibb.co/jCcbBS/dow.png)
A similar view comes from technical analyst Mark Arbeter, who thinks there is a significant likelihood to go back to recent lows.

Besides, fundamentally speaking, many managers think the market is way overvalued. MacroMavens President Stephanie Pomboy discusses in the video below her concerns over current economic conditions and the Fed’s impact on the stock market and thinks Stock market will sell off by 30%!
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/stock-market-sell-off-30-021934797.html

Well, as stated in the previous message, after equity market bounced back by 62%, I'm expecting a new dramatic fall of the s&p 500.
In fact, early January, a specialist correctly predicted the correction that happened early February by analyzing the Bitcoin chart, and both the s&p 500 and the bitcoin charts had the same pattern, one month and a half apart. Of this analysis proves true, we are probably in front of an impending significant correction.
For sure this is going to be fun.

Tonight, I'm issuing a red alert on the stock market.
The similarities between 1987 and 2018 are striking (aa1234779 and Maher probably noticed that) - an article here: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=52296
My target is 2100 on the s&p 500.

And a few videos...
A manager who thinks the stock and real estate bubbles are going to explode (in Fr):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzknfi5ylnQ

The similarities between 87 and 2018: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vetPn2EvTTQ



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24xRFPGMImY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dChjADy341I

I've turned a blind eye ti stock markets long ago.
It doesn't require a rocket scientist to notice it's just a huge bubble waiting to burst. Same goes for the petro-dollar. The day it is valued at its true worth will be a sad day for planet earth.
I'm noticing similarities between 2018 & 1979 more and more everyday.
All there is to do is hope for the best.

The older I get the more convinced I am that the stock market is a huge scam. Only those at the very top of the totem pole make real money. Others invest and either lose everything or make a small profit. I would never invest in the stock market no matter how much rich I get.

Quote from: humbert on April 03, 2018, 06:49 AM
The older I get the more convinced I am that the stock market is a huge scam. Only those at the very top of the totem pole make real money. Others invest and either lose everything or make a small profit. I would never invest in the stock market no matter how much rich I get.

Yep. That's the case in every nook and corner of business, more money w/o caring what happens to middle class and poor class people.

In this topic, a few months ago I told you not to invest in snap. It seems I'm vindicated. The stock price dropped by 20% today, and hit an all time low.

A few weeks ago I was looking at a stock and I was thinking: I don't know what they are doing, it's probably experimental, but the stock is a bit expensive.
It declined by 80% in two days. The firm is amoeba.

(https://image.ibb.co/m5uVeS/amoeba.png)


The stock collapsed after the rejection of its biological biocide.

On friday, the resumption of trading for the Amoeba stock turned out to be catastrophic, while it declined by 70% at 5.5 euros this Friday on the Paris Stock Exchange, having already lost nearly 20%on thurday before being suspended. In a statement, the group announced that its application for authorization of the biocidal active substance Willaertia magna C2c Maky for use in product type 11 (TP 11- Liquid protection products used in cooling systems and manufacture) has not been approved by the Biocidal Products Committee.

"This opinion will have to be confirmed by the European Commission through an implementing regulation according to the regulatory procedure.The regulations are expected in the fourth quarter of 2018," the group said in its statement.

Before the collapse, it was worth 130 million euros, for 60 000 euros in revenue in 2016. I don't think the US market is as overvalued as amoeba, and yet, I might be wrong but I think the next months are going to be funny. If interest rates keep climbing, the s&p 500 can go to 2000. To put that in perspective, a mere firm like facebook is worth more than the whole Indian market. Maybe the whole indian market is not expensive. Maybe facebook is earning a lot of money -at the expense of its members who are targeted by ads. But maybe facebook and other American techno stocks are a bit expensive too.

Tonight I'm going to talk about the s&p 500, which is currently in a kind of "bubble" (I'm just pasting the article of the specialist Proinsias O'Mahony, published yesterday in the Irish Times).

Bubble trouble: how should investors respond?
High prices are sustained as speculators believe they can sell on to ‘greater fool’

(https://www.irishtimes.com/polopoly_fs/1.3482699.1525339616!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/box_620_330/image.jpg)

Should investors be worried about bubbles? If so, how should they respond? Worrying about excessively high prices might seem misplaced at the moment, given the recent stock market correction. However, high-profile money manager Rob Arnott says some assets â€" cryptocurrencies, technology stocks, perhaps even the broader US stock market â€" remain in bubble territory.

Arnott, who helps manage $205 billion at Research Affiliates, argues in a new paper that investors need a plan on how to deal with these and other bubbles. Should you bet against them? Ignore them? Invest in their antithesis?

Arnott defines a bubble as an asset that offers little chance of any positive return relative to bonds or cash, “using any reasonable projection of expected cash flows”. Instead, high prices are sustained because speculators believe they can sell on to a “greater fool”. For stocks, markets constantly create “single-asset micro-bubbles” like electric car maker Tesla, occasional examples of “extreme mispricing” which require perfect outcomes to justify their lofty valuation multiples. Arnott says Tesla’s market valuation of almost $50 billion can only be justified if most cars are powered by electricity in 10 years; if most of those cars are made by Tesla; if Tesla can make sufficient margin on those cars while maintaining quality control; and if it can raise the necessary capital to cover a $3 billion annual cash drain. Together, this makes for an “unduly optimistic array of assumptions”.

Many other high-profile investors share this scepticism towards Tesla, one of the most shorted stocks on the US market. Those who have bet against the stock include hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who says Tesla is “worthless” and a “cult stock”, as well as fellow hedge fund manager David Einhorn.

Tesla, Amazon and Netflix are part of the latter’s “bubble basket”, with Einhorn arguing for some time that the appetite for such stocks is “reminiscent of the March 2000 dotcom bubble”. More controversial, perhaps, is Arnott’s claim that the broader US market, led by the largest technology stocks, is in bubble territory. Sector and broad market bubbles are “much rarer” that “micro-bubbles” like Tesla, but the “relentless” and “dramatic” US market gains since 2009 mean valuations “now exceed all historical valuation levels”, barring the late 1990s dotcom craze. Semantics aside, Arnott’s analysis suggests investors should be wary of popular stocks.

Looking at the 10 largest technology stocks in 2000, he notes that “not a single one beat the market” over the next 18 years. At the end of January 2018, the seven largest stocks in the world â€" Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, and Tencent â€" were all technology stocks, with Arnott cautioning that no single sector has ever so dominated the global market landscape.

Historical analysis shows that, on average, just two stocks are likely to remain in the top 10 in a decade’s time. If history repeats itself, nine of the current top 10 will underperform over the next decade.

Technology valuations are “not as extreme” as 1999-2000, says Arnott, but the sector is nevertheless in another bubble.
Bet against bubbles?
Arnott admits that “reasonable people may reach the opposite conclusion”. Whatever one’s opinion, all investors should focus on how they might respond to a bubble. You can make a lot of money by betting against bubbles; those who bet against technology stocks in 2000 and bank stocks in 2008 profited handsomely.

He points to the Zimbabwean stock market, which fell 99 per cent in US dollar terms over a three-month period in 2008. Even if you knew in advance that the market was going to collapse, vicious market swings mean you would have lost 50 times your money. An extreme case, no doubt, but other examples abound. In January 2017, tech stocks like Amazon and Netflix “really looked stretched”, sporting sky-high valuation multiples, but they continued to outperform over the following year. Instead of betting against bubbles, Arnott suggests investors simply reduce or eliminate their exposure to bubble assets. Refusing to do so in the hope that you’ll get out in time “resembles picking up nickels in front of a steamroller”, as Sir Isaac Newton discovered during the South Sea bubble in the 18th century.

Newton quickly doubled his money in the South Sea Company but the stock continued to soar after he sold it. Newton gave into temptation and bought back in shortly before it peaked, losing almost his entire life’s savings and prompting him to famously lament that he could “calculate the movement of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men”.
“Anti-bubbles”
Alternatively, investors can seek out “anti-bubbles” â€" sectors priced at levels “that cannot plausibly deliver” anything other than big returns. He points to bank stocks and junk bonds in early 2009, noting that every failure of a company meant that survivors in that sector had less competition and higher margins. Similarly, the high yields and low valuations sported by value stocks in emerging markets in early 2016 represented an “obvious anti-bubble” in a world of zero-yield bonds and cash.

Anti-bubbles are like market bubbles in that you cannot tell when the cycle will turn. Accordingly, investors require patience and prudence and should average into positions over time, says Arnott. Finally, investors can diversify into assets that are not in bubble territory. Although the S&P 500 is trading at an “extravagant premium” to historic valuations, many developed and emerging markets are cheaper than usual. Bulls try to find many ways to justify high US valuations, but the same arguments apply to European and emerging markets. If low yields in the US justify high valuations, asks Arnott, then why do zero yields in Europe lead to modest valuation multiples? Rotating out of bubbly assets and into cheaper alternatives will help insulate investors “against the next eventual-but-inevitable market downturn”, says Arnott. “Other markets offer better places to take on market risk. Seek them out”.

Today, I’m going to hold a conference about the American stock markets.


I gathered a few elements taken in recent articles that confirm my opinion: we are probably in front of a big fall of the s&p 500.


First and foremost, let’s talk about the predictions of strategist Rosenberg, who says that the S&P 500 should be 1,000-plus points lower than it is today.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2018/04/03/Photos/ZH/MW-GG661_cliff__20180403073217_ZH.jpg?uuid=a9f76366-3732-11e8-9e58-ac162d7bc1f7)

Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg bases his prediction on sluggish U.S. economic growth and overvalued equities.

A reversion to the mean in U.S. stock prices could mean the market will fall by at least 20%, according to David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff and Associates, who gave his prediction at the Strategic Investment Conference 2018 in San Diego.
Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Gluskin Sheff, said this is one of the strangest securities-market rallies of all time. That’s because all asset classes have gone up, even ones that are inversely correlated.

Smart money pulls back

The beginning of this year started off great for investors. The S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.17% hit record highs at around 2,750 points, and stocks had their best January since 1987.
As if that was not enough, Rosenberg pointed out, many Wall Street strategists raised their target to 3,000. The media extrapolating record returns only added to the rise in investors’ unreasonable expectations.
However, increasingly more hedge fund managers and billionaire investors who timed the previous crashes are backing out.
One of them is Sam Zell, a billionaire real estate investor, whom Rosenberg says is a “hero” of his. Zell predicted the 2008 financial crisis, eight months early. But, essentially, he was right. Today, his view is that valuations are at record highs.
Then we have Howard Marks, a billionaire American investor who is the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. He seconds Zell’s view that valuations are unreasonably high and says the easy money has been made.
“And I don’t always try to seek out corroborating evidence. But there are some serious people out there saying some very serious things about the longevity of the cycle,” said Rosenberg.

Big correction coming

Later at the Strategic Investment Conference, Rosenberg shifted from quoting high-profile investors to showing actual data, which paints the same ominous picture.
For starters, Rosenberg pointed out that only 9% of the time in history have U.S. stocks been so expensive.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2018/05/11/Photos/NS/MW-GJ086_rose1_20180511142801_NS.png?uuid=0995b370-5549-11e8-9c04-ac162d7bc1f7)

Then he showed a table with gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures in the last nine bull rallies. This table reveals a dire trend where each subsequent bull rally in the last 70 years generated less GDP growth. Essentially, that means we are paying more for less growth.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2018/05/11/Photos/NS/MW-GJ087_rose2_20180511142802_NS.png?uuid=09ee3766-5549-11e8-bf93-ac162d7bc1f7)

According to Rosenberg’s calculations, the S&P 500 should be at least 1,000 points lower than it is today based on economic growth. In spite of this, equity valuations sit at record highs.

Another historically accurate indicator that predicts the end of bull cycles is household net worth’s share of personal disposable income.
As you can see in the chart below, the last two peaks in this ratio almost perfectly coincided with the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis.
(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2018/05/11/Photos/NS/MW-GJ088_rose3_20180511142802_NS.png?uuid=0a46719c-5549-11e8-9b5c-ac162d7bc1f7)

Now the ratio is at the highest level since 1975, which is another sign that reversion is near.
What the Fed thinks
As another strong indicator that recession is around the corner, Rosenberg quoted the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. He pointed out that, having access to tons of research, they themselves admit that equity valuations are so stretched that there will be no returns in the next decade:
“Current valuation ratios for households and businesses are high relative to historical benchmarks … we find that the current price-to-earnings ratio predicts approximately zero growth in real equity prices over the next 10 years.”
Basically, the Fed is giving investors an explicit warning that the market will “mean revert.”
But when we revert, we don’t stop at the mean, warned Rosenberg. He gave an example of how mean reversion in the household net worth/GDP ratio would create a snowball effect.
According to his calculations, if the household net worth/GDP ratio reverted to the mean, savings rates would go from 2% to 6%. As a result, GDP would go down 3%, which would have nasty consequences for the economy and, in turn, stocks.

Monetary regime change

Stretched valuations are not the only problem for the stock market. Rosenberg thinks that new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell marks the end of low interest rates, which will also add pressure to equities.
Even the biggest Fed doves admit that low rates created a heightened risk of asset bubbles and unstable asset inflation. And so, Rosenberg thinks, Powell will be more hawkish than people think.
“He’s [Jerome Powell] talked about risk-taking in the past, he’s talked about frothy financial conditions. He was adamantly against the prolonged period of zero percent interest rates. He was profoundly opposed to the repeated rounds of QE [quantitative easing], and now he’s in charge. So, for people to think he’s only going to go three times this year [raise official interest rates three times], I think he’ll go four. He may go more, depending on the circumstances.”

Rosenberg also thinks Powell won’t cut interest rates, even if we get a 20% sell-off. That’s how determined Powell is to normalize interest rates, according to Rosenberg.
In other words, we are in the middle of the Fed tightening cycle. As history shows, a tightening cycle is almost always followed by a recession.

What’s more, other analysts think the s&p 500 is grossly overvalued.

“The U.S. equity market remains richly valued, particularly relative to European markets,” said Marcus Morris-Eyton, a London-based fund manager at Allianz Global Investors, whose team manages 17.5 billion euros ($21.5 billion). “We continue to see more valuation upside in Europe, where valuations are less stretched and the earnings recovery is less advanced.”
Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, points out that the difference between the price-to-estimated book value of the S&P 500 and the Stoxx Europe 600 remains near a record high. Pictet estimates that such a premium implies U.S. earnings growth to be 6 percentage points higher than in the euro area, which is “totally unrealistic.”

In these conditions, I have targets for the s&p 500 between 2000 and 2200 points (if the s&p 500 was to fall, like during the 1987 crash, it could even go to 1800 points, before a rebound towards 2200).

(https://image.ibb.co/dk7UOy/sp500.png)


Currently there are 2 dangers for stocks: the oil price, which keeps climbing. That’s good for oil companies of course, but it could trigger a recession in the US, since it is heavily dependent on oil.

But the main danger comes from the $: that’s what Macquarie Research states:
There is a distinct possibility of a much stronger USD…
Just when the consensus agreed that the US$ has entered LT bear channel, DXY not surprisingly started to appreciate and, as it passes 92, the question is whether we are likely to witness an intense appreciation. This is the key danger facing investors over the next twelve months.
For many years we have been deflationists at heart and indeed we remain so. Our core beliefs are centred on disinflationary pressures that are likely to get stronger over time. These are driven by a combustible mix of technology (and associated dissolution of labour & product markets) and the impact of three decades of over financialization (and associated over capacity & inability to resurrect conventional pricing signals). In simple terms, investors reside in a world of no wages (or eroding pricing power of labour & products) and the need to keep ‘zombies’ alive to avoid contraction of demand. These forces are highly deflationary and public sectors would struggle to offset them.
In this environment, we should theoretically see that the current anomaly of US$ and gold appreciating at the same time turn into a consistent trend while investors also search for more extreme value alternatives, ranging from fine wines, paintings to cryptos. This investor behaviour might become ever more extreme as the public and electorates demand protection and continuity from CBs & fiscal authorities and politics deliver. It would be positive for US$.
… as the Fed destroys liquidity & extreme positioning unwinds
We believe that investors are already starting to witness weaker supply of US$ (~1%-3% clip, half the rate six months ago, caused by contracting monetary base as the Fed reduces its balance sheet) and seeming inability of the US to significantly widen its CA deficits (despite public sector dissaving).
(https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/global%20debt%20supply.jpg?itok=nNpEjSco)
This shortage is amplified by historically high real spreads.
(https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/real%20spreads.jpg?itok=ZtkICTdK)
Hence, we are seeing some unwinding of extreme negative positioning against US$. This might get out of control and it is the intensity rather than simply direction that is critical.
There is another factor that always provides a positive undertone for US$: its role as the global store of value and medium of exchange. A reserve currency must satisfy a number of conditions, which currently only the US$ does. It must have large, liquid and free treasury and FX markets. Neither â,¬, Rmb nor Â¥ have these. Reserve currency supplier must also run significant CA deficits to lubricate finance; neither Eurozone, Japan nor China run deficits. Hence, there is always a bid for US$, and only strong reflation or QE could weaken it.
Intense appreciation or depreciation of US$ are deflationary
We maintain that all rapid US$ moves are deflationary. Appreciation works through liquidity and commodity channels to erode growth and make it harder to re-finance US$ foreign debt. However, steep US$ depreciation is equally deflationary as it kills real demand. Hence, neither moves are desirable. Rising US$ is already causing tremors (Argentina, Tukey & Indo); however at this stage these are still moderate.


Since Interest rates keep rising in the US, I have a target for the currency pair â,¬/$ at 1.10, and maybe 1.05. If you are in the Eurozone, I advise you to buy dollars and hold them. It’s another element which is strongly negative for US stocks, because if the $ climbs, it means they should be cheaper. Usually, we find that correlation with Gold: when the $ climbs, gold tumbles.

I found another interesting article...

Taking The Pulse Of A Weakening Economy
by Charles Hugh Smith

Corporate buybacks provide the key analogy for the economy as a whole.

Central banks have been running a grand experiment for 9 years, and now we're about to find out if it succeeds or fails. For 9 unprecedented years, central banks have pushed the pedal of monetary stimulus to the metal: near-zero interest rates, monumental purchases of bonds, mortgage-backed securities, stocks and corporate bonds, injecting trillions of dollars, yuan, yen and euros into the global financial system, all in the name of promoting a "synchronized global recovery" that in many nations remains the weakest post-World War II recovery on record.

The two goals of this unprecedented stimulus were 1) bringing consumption forward and 2) generating a "wealth effect" as the owners of assets rising in value would translate their perception of feeling wealthier into more borrowing and consumption that would then feed a self-sustaining virtuous cycle of expansion.

The Federal Reserve has finally begun reducing its stimulus programs of near-zero interest rates and bond purchases, the idea being that the "recovery" is now robust enough to continue without the extraordinary monetary stimulus of the past 9 years since the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-09.

Will the "synchronized global recovery" continue as interest rates rise and central bank assets purchases decline? Policy makers and economists evince confidence as they collectively hold their breath--is the recovery now self-sustaining?

2018 is the first test year. Global assets--stocks, bonds and real estate--remain at levels that are grossly overvalued by traditional measures, and most economies are still expanding modestly. But since the other major central banks have only recently begun to "taper" / reduce their securities purchases, the real test has yet to begin.

The pulses of asset valuations and productive expansion are weakening. Asset valuations are either no longer expanding or are actively falling; markets everywhere feel heavy, as if all they need is one good shove to slip into major declines.

The vaunted "wealth effect" was extremely asymmetric: only those in the top 5% who owned enough assets to experience a meaningful increase in wealth--those who bought assets years before the current bubble expanded, and the relative few households who own roughly 70% of all financial assets--and the few workers and entrepreneurs who benefited from an increasingly "winner take most" expansion.

As a result, the enormous increases in assets had little real effect on the bottom 80% who own few assets, and only modest effects on the "middle class" between the bottom 80% and the top 5%.

Meanwhile, bringing consumption forward has drained the pool of future consumption and creditworthy borrowers. Future consumption now rests on the shaky foundation of marginally qualified buyers and the relatively few young people forming new households who also have high incomes and good credit.

The reality nobody dares acknowledge is that a "recovery" based not on improving productivity and innovation but on cheap credit and an artificially stimulated "wealth effect" was inherently weak, for the stimulus effectively hollowed out the productive economy in favor of the financialized, speculative economy and created perverse incentives to over-borrow and over-spend, stripping future demand to create the illusion of growth in a stagnating economy of rising wealth and power inequality.

A funny thing happens when you borrow from the future to spend more today--the future arrives, and we find the pool has been drained to serve the absurd policy goal of "no recession now, or ever again.

Corporate buybacks provide the key analogy for the economy as a whole: as sales, productivity and profits all stagnate, corporations borrow against future earnings to buy shares back from investors to push share prices higher, creating an illusion of "wealth." But it's all illusion; once the billions in buybacks cease, gravity takes hold and the phantom "wealth" dissipates.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is simply the latest corporation to announce slowing sales growth and to compensate for this stagnation with a massive $100 billion buyback to prop up shares at their current valuation.

Perhaps these realities are seeping into the margins of the complacent herd. It certainly feels like the "smart money" is selling (distributing) to the complacent herd, which is one lightning strike and thunder clap away from a panicked rush to sell and book 9 years of gains before the synchronized global asset bubbles all pop.

Markets have ignored the tapering of central bank support (asset purchases), but the question remains: is this complacency temporary?

(https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic9640694119b5715be3dd85342c4e5e1f.jpg)

Productivity is the only sustainable source of widespread prosperity, and it's stagnating:

(https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic9b22a7bb60875ec2b44904f4fa87fd05.jpg)

The US stock market remains expensive. And we have seen that in this market, some stocks are particularly expensive. That's the case for Tesla, snap, and also Netflix (on a lesser extent, we could add Caterpillar, Boeing, Nvidia, Amazon...).
Here is an article that explains why Netflix is expensive: https://www.recode.net/2018/4/24/17258828/netflix-stock-cheap-debt-nflx-pe-ratio-enterprise-value

Tonight, I'm going to talk about the volatility crossroad: maybe a new bear market is in sight.

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com

Hence let me offer some perspective on some of these charts and I want to hone in specifically on volatility, or rather the great dying we’ve just witnessed. In the most recent weeks all fear appears to have left markets again and volatility has compressed to tight intra-day ranges such as we are witnessing today. All this action is rather reminiscent of the low volatility regime market participants had become accustomed to during the artificial liquidity bonanza of 2017.

Are we heading there again and the regular buy every dingle dip mantra takes over again? Or are we rather in the center of a larger storm, witnessing a temporary reprieve from the wily winds of volatility ready to strike again?

Firstly some basic perspective.

We remain in the middle of the range we have seen for the past few months:
(https://i.ibb.co/PMYgyxD/SPX-range.png)

Perhaps ironic that volatility and fear has again subsided despite broader markets not showing significant progress from these earlier consolidation phases in the same price ranges.

But perhaps more notable is that this current volatility compression is coming at a very particular technical pivot point:
(https://i.ibb.co/gzcQ9Vx/VXOD.png)

The chart above shows a long term chart of the $VXO, the original formula of the $VIX. Here we can see a multi year descending trend line that has shown to be precise resistance between 2015 and 2017 and even during its first tag in 2018. The February correction subsequently saw a massive volatility spike breaking above that trend line and $VXO has remained above the trend line throughout.

Technically speaking, for bulls to find comfort in volatility resuming its 2017 type program it needs to break below this trend line. As it is support for now it opens up the possibility that this current volatility compression is a simple technical retest that could result in a major spike yet to come.

Something like this:
(https://i.ibb.co/sg2Cvwx/VIX-5.png)

Hence volatility is at a major technical crossroad here with neither side having yet proven their case.

And both bullish and bearish considerations have their merit.

But note, that the most recent volatility patterns are forming potential descending wedges. These are bullish patterns if $VIX breaks out above.


The structures of the above volatility charts suggest that markets will make up their minds in the near term.

For now things are quiet. Perhaps too quiet.

In this video, another specialist is predicting a stock market crash of the US market. And he has interesting arguments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmNFXi9tLFc


Note that maybe I'm going to release a repack for farcry 4. I know that humbert dislikes FPS, but at least it's happening in the Himalaya with beautiful landscapes.
I didn't like Far Cry 5 (a kind of bad remake of Far Cry 4), there won't be any repack for this one.

Today, an exceptional conference is available on the forum, with an interview of Michael Greenberger who says that a new financial crisis could be coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9hbJJ2g8p8

(https://preview.ibb.co/hcihfT/Untitled.png)

Michael Greenberger says unregulated credit default swaps could take down the economyâ€"and taxpayersâ€"again. In 2008 unregulated credit default swaps brought the economy to its knees. Ten years later, they may poised to do so againâ€"unless policymakers reign in the big banks. That’s the call to arms of University of Maryland Law Professor Michael Greenberger, whose new INET Working Paper details how the largest American banks have quietly parked swaps oversees, thus evading the regulations designed to prevent another crisis. Professor Greenberger and INET President Rob Johmson talk about the paper, including how swaps work, the so-called “moral hazard” of banks knowing they can be bailed out by taxpayers, and how politicians in Washington and state capitals can ensure that risky swaps never again take down the economy. As Greenberger argues, despite the rosy picture of the economy painted by politicians and the media, the lurking danger of unregulated swaps is very much real.

I'm expecting a crack in August on the stock markets. Indeed, the US and European markets are richly valued, and in the US they are even richly valued relative to rates.
That's why the markets are on the edge. A few minutes ago the cac40 declined suddenly by 1%. Beware of the upcoming drop.
(https://image.ibb.co/bXz4dd/cac40.png)



Note that sometimes, some users like Vasudev have problems with my game repacks. I must admit they are not 100% reliable. like the repacks of fitgirl and corepack. In fact, since repacks are games which are compressed with "custom-made" compressors, you can't be 100% sure they are going to work. However I test my repacks before releasing them. For the Evil within 2, I warned that the repack was buggy. For the others, you shouldn't have problems though, and if you have problems, start the install again (you may have to uninstall the game before).
Apparently, this one is experiencing problems with one repack. Let's advise him to be patient.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iX6O5rTl5s

Tonight, I'm going to talk about the s&p 500.

I'm going to talk about the chart that was already posted on 15 July in this topic.
As seen on this chart, if you are putting your cursor on 25 July, and at 2849 points (they were reached on the futures today), you are on the major top that was indicated...before a fall of the s&p 500. That's my scenario. On the short term the s&p 500 has been bullish indeed.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/fVGPTobf-The-Good-Days-are-Numbered/

The US markets are completely overbought and very expensive (for Amazon, the PER with the forecasted results is 90. For facebook, msft and Google, it is around 30-35).
And it's still thanks to the tech sector that the s&p 500 is climbing.
You can also read the article of that specialist, explaining that the US markets (both stock and real estate markets) are in a bubble.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/u-s-household-wealth-is-in-a-bubble-part-2/

Note that there have been rumors that Trump was going to ease US-EU trade tensions. How is he going to gather money with his tax cuts, the US is already broke?
After the closing, facebook is declining by 10% in after hours trading.


Here is a video, in French, with a specialist talking about the cac 40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inzc1Fh9st4

(https://preview.ibb.co/h0JDzT/se.png)

A brief overview of the US stock market:

(https://image.ibb.co/neBWBU/s_p500.png)

I'm still bearish. Because overall, stocks are still expensive. Amazon and msft at 900 billion, if we calculate the current forward PER, we have 90 for the former and 40 for the latter.
(https://image.ibb.co/dkfoQp/bear.png)

Also, note that I'm still bullish for the $ against the â,¬, with a target at 1.05 for the â,¬/$ pair.

@scarface

What do you think of investing in Property?

I was considering trying to leverage my "wealth" by buying houses/properties/apartments in developing countries, in areas I believe could become popular and make them better and then rent out to people. This is however a long term goal, and nothing I will do in the coming 5 years. But perhaps within 10.

The main reason is:
It seems like a good way to save money until I can afford what I want in Sweden.
"Passive income"(not really.)
And of course, I just want to do it.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 02, 2018, 02:50 AM
I was considering trying to leverage my "wealth" by buying houses/properties/apartments in developing countries, in areas I believe could become popular and make them better and then rent out to people. This is however a long term goal, and nothing I will do in the coming 5 years. But perhaps within 10.

What developing countries did you have in mind? I'm assuming you did your homework and obtained as much information as possible about your possible targets.

Well,

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 02, 2018, 02:50 AM
The main reason is:
It seems like a good way to save money until I can afford what I want in Sweden.
"Passive income"(not really.)
And of course, I just want to do it.

As humbert said, real estate trends can vary depending on the local situations.
And real estate is globally expensive, unless you have a lot of money, that's not something I would try. And since you are still at school, I doubt you are as rich as Bin Salman.
If you want to go abroad, and if you get to know the local real estate, why not.
As for Sweden, real estate is very expensive. Maybe you should get yourself a flat first.
But even there, chances are you won't earn money if real estate prices go down.
https://medium.com/scandieland/goldman-sachs-says-swedish-property-market-heading-for-worst-crash-since-1990s-banking-crisis-b16a215413ea

Note that In many countries, it's financially more interesting to rent than to buy.
For example, in India it takes nearly 45 years for rental income to cover real estate prices !
https://www.proptiger.com/guide/post/india-asias-most-expensive-real-estate-market

Quote from: scarface on December 02, 2018, 12:14 PM
Well,

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 02, 2018, 02:50 AM
The main reason is:
It seems like a good way to save money until I can afford what I want in Sweden.
"Passive income"(not really.)
And of course, I just want to do it.

As humbert said, real estate trends can vary depending on the local situations.
And real estate is globally expensive, unless you have a lot of money, that's not something I would try. And since you are still at school, I doubt you are as rich as Bin Salman.
If you want to go abroad, and if you get to know the local real estate, why not.
As for Sweden, real estate is very expensive. Maybe you should get yourself a flat first.
But even there, chances are you won't earn money if real estate prices go down.
https://medium.com/scandieland/goldman-sachs-says-swedish-property-market-heading-for-worst-crash-since-1990s-banking-crisis-b16a215413ea

Note that In many countries, it's financially more interesting to rent than to buy.
For example, in India it takes nearly 45 years for rental income to cover real estate prices !
https://www.proptiger.com/guide/post/india-asias-most-expensive-real-estate-market

I'm just waiting on the housing market bubble to burst again.
I dont have the funds currently, and not I'm not planning on doing this for some time. I'm going to do my homework, but slowly.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 05, 2018, 02:17 PM
I'm just waiting on the housing market bubble to burst again.
I dont have the funds currently, and not I'm not planning on doing this for some time. I'm going to do my homework, but slowly.

This is a wise move.
We don't know if the housing market will burst after all. Maybe it won't.
But before thinking about buying flats to rent them, It's wiser to find accomodation for yourself. If you are buying sth you can't rent, if you are not paid, if you flat is trashed by the tenants, you also have to properly account for these risks. And in this case, you can lose money.
Also, you have to note that if the flat is not expensive and if you can obtain a good rental yield, Something is amiss (in French I would say "il y a anguille sous roche"). And the risk lies in not being able to rent your apartment. That's what I was saying in this message (I was speaking about you, but don't be afraid I wouldn't leave you in my trunk): http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=2283.msg29572#msg29572

Note that I updated the topic, since some images had been deleted with the closing of hostingpics.net. I had been right concerning bitcoin and snap, when I advised against buying that.
On boursorama, I held a conference early January 2018, saying that the Bitcoin would go below 3000$ by the end of 2018. And it did.
Now I think that the world economy is facing serious threats. And I think that the s&p 500 is still very high. In this context, maybe gold mining stocks could be a good bet.

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock market.

The cac 40 is going down today, following the American market decline. I bought a few socgen stocks today. Many stocks listed on the cac 40 are expensive, like LVMH or Hermes. As far as Societe generale is concerned, it gives an interesting yield now. In one year Socgen had an outstanding performance since the stock declined by 37%!

(https://i.ibb.co/Hn2VSKn/gle.jpg)

Today, the stock market is crumbling once again. For aa1234779 to understand what is happening, I would use the word "badaboum".
In this video, a specialist explains the situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inzc1Fh9st4

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zhHBF85v_TI/hqdefault.jpg)

Tonight, I'm going to talk about Uber's initial public offering.

Over the past decade, Uber changed urban transportation, disrupted entrenched taxi industries, defied regulators the world over and beat back questions about how it was altering the nature of work. And everything is not right for the firm: in Spain for example, taxi drivers are regularly protesting: they are calling the Uber drivers "cockroaches".


(https://mondrian.mashable.com/2015%252F07%252F03%252Fd2%252Fuberfrance.96304.jpg%252F950x534__filters%253Aquality%252890%2529.jpg?signature=TyhTx4ZXxFincgrXLxmSMA6JIok=)
A protest against Uber at porte Maillot in Paris.

On Friday, it was tamed by Wall Street.

(https://i.ibb.co/BTBDYvG/uber.jpg)

The ride-hailing giant’s first day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange began with a drop from its initial public offering price of $45, and its stock closed down 7.6 percent. By the end of Friday, Uber’s market capitalization, accounting for stock options and restricted stock, stood at $76.5 billion â€" barely above the $76 billion that private investors pegged it at in August.


You are probably wondering how a company that never earnt money can be valued at 82 billion $. undoubtedly, It makes usman and Maher laugh.
It reported an operating loss of $3 billion in 2018 after losing more than $4 billion the previous year.
For Forbes too, Uber's IPO Valuation Makes No Sense: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/04/22/ubers-ipo-valuation-makes-no-sense/#2c3ede27540d
But this is a bigger problem. In an article released 2 days ago in Le monde, we learn that Wall Street doesn't attract profitable companies any more (in French): https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2019/05/11/wall-street-ne-fait-plus-rever-les-societes-americaines_5460806_3234.html

Today the rout continues for Uber and the stock keeps tumbling. Apparently the lane departure warnings are not only affecting self-driving cars.
(https://i.ibb.co/CHPS3P3/uber2.jpg)

Vasudev and shadow.97 must be wondering if it's not a snapchat-like stocks, the kind that is losing 50% in the first five months. We'll know that soon enough.

Here is a brief overview of the markets...

And we can see a marked decline in the French Stock exchange this morning.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

The stock markets are crumbling today after Trump erupted about immigration with Mexico. The cac40 is declining by 1% and the Futures dow jones are losing 200 points.

The cac 40 is dropping nearly 1.5%. In French I would call that "une énorme baffe".


Note that I had to go to Firminy, a small town southwest of Saint Etienne, to change a tire. It cost me an arm and a leg.
Before going there, I did not know that Firminy was hosting the largest site of Le Corbusier in Europe. And I visited several sites. I will talk about them during an exceptional conference tonight. I'm sure that usmangujjar, aa1234779 or Maher will enjoy the photos.

Today, I'm going to tell you what happened yesterday at the Facebook shareholder's meeting.

'Fire Zuck' projected onto location of Facebook shareholders' meeting

(https://i.ibb.co/XZb6tfH/zuck.jpg)

They say visualizing your goal is the first step toward making it a reality.

The nonprofit Fight for the Future leaned into that belief hard on Wednesday night with a giant projection calling for the firing of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Oh yeah, and it projected said message onto the side of the hotel hosting today's 11 a.m. Facebook shareholders' meeting.

"There is no single silver bullet solution that will 'fix' Facebook," the group wrote in a Medium post documenting the protest. "But we can start by sending a clear message to its shareholders, corporate leadership, & the entire tech industry that we are fed up, and that no one should be immune from facing the consequences of their actions."

The outside call to fire the CEO comes on the heels of an April proposal by Facebook investors to oust Zuckerberg. Similar discontent with the CEO was shown by investors at the 2018 shareholders' meeting. In other words, this call for charge at Facebook's top isn't new â€" although it perhaps gets more urgent with each passing scandal.

According to a Fight for the Future spokesperson, the projection was up on the side of the Hotel Nia in Palo Alto from roughly an hour until 10 p.m. last night. "[One passerby] had a FB badge and as soon as he saw the projection put his head down and walked faster," the spokesperson told us over email.

At least one other, however, seemed more amenable to the call for change â€" agreeing with the nonprofit that Facebook treats its contractors poorly.

"[The] person came out of hotel and told us he worked with FB," the spokesperson continued. "He thanked us for doing what we were doing and said he agreed with us: 'It's actually not that crazy of an idea.'"

Fight for the Future wasn't the only group with plans to protest the annual meeting. The consumer group SumOfUs has partnered with the activist group Bend the Arc to attempt to deliver a giant inflatable "angry emoji" to Zuckerberg.

Notably, Zuckerberg has the majority voting share of Facebook, so it's unlikely that any proposal calling for his ouster or the company's fragmentation will be successful. At least, not today. But hey, you never get what you want if you don't ask for it first.

Here are 2 new articles about the US economy...

And they say that a recession could hit the US pretty soon.
In French: https://www.lecho.be/economie-politique/international/usa/une-recession-se-profile-aux-etats-unis/10132672.html
In English: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/morgan-stanley-says-economy-on-recession-watch-amid-bond-warning.html

In any case, I advise you to be cautious with the equity market.

Tonight, I'm going to hold a conference about the stock markets, with an excellent article of the columnist Mark Hulbert.

According to this specialist, Stock bulls are telling themselves a lot of lies about this market.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2017/06/27/Photos/ZH/MW-FP300_pinocc_20170627163649_ZH.jpg?uuid=5854f6ae-5b78-11e7-a875-9c8e992d421e)

The U.S. stock market is overvalued now, period.

That would be worth keeping in mind at any time, of course, but especially now with the major market averages significantly off their late-April peaks. If current valuations were reasonable, then we could count on them to provide a safety net below this market.

Unfortunately we can’t. Yet many stock-market bulls contend that such a safety net does exist. Some are arguing that the stock market correction in late 2018 worked off many previous valuation excesses. One adviser Humbert monitors contended that “valuation metrics [in late April] for the S&P SPX, +1.05%  [were] much lower than where they were last year.”

And Mark Hulbert disagrees: Though valuations did improve between the market’s late-September and late-April peaks, the improvement was so slight as to barely improve equities’ outlook. Consider perhaps the most popular valuation measure: The price/earnings ratio. At the S&P 500’s late-September peak, the P/E ratio based on trailing 12 months as-reported earnings stood at 22.5. At its late-April peak, in contrast, it stood at 21.9 â€" less than 3% lower.

To understand how modest a decline that is, consider a simple econometric model that uses the P/E ratio to predict the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the subsequent 12 months. Hulbert constructed this model using data back to 1871 from Yale University finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller. The reduction in P/E from September to April translates into an increased forecasted return of just 6 basis points.

Good luck with that. The message of other valuation measures is similar. Consider five on which Hulbert also focused for this column: The cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE), made famous by Yale’s Shiller; the price-to-book and price-to-sales ratios; the dividend yield, and the Q-Ratio (calculated by dividing market value by the replacement cost of assets). The accompanying chart shows the percentage of past bull market peaks that had lower valuations than what prevailed at the market’s late-April high.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2019/06/03/Photos/ZH/MW-HK684_overva_20190603110339_ZH.jpg?uuid=c551d3ca-8610-11e9-8a64-9c8e992d421e)

Notice that the market at that high was more overvalued than it was at anywhere between 86% and 100% of past bull market peaks (depending on which valuation measure used). The overwhelming message: Don’t look to valuations to cushion any decline.

This doesn’t mean that a bear market began at its late-April peak, of course. The stock market has been overvalued for a number of years now and, for the most part, has continued to produce impressive returns. What the valuation measures do mean is this: You’re on shaky ground if you have been giving the bull market the benefit of the doubt because of its allegedly reasonably valuation. You either need to find some other reason to be bullish, or to reduce your bullishness.

Today I'm going to talk about the financial markets.
Given the level of the overall markets, I advise you to sell your stocks. That's what I did this morning: I sold 35% of my societe general stocks at 23.40â,¬.
https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPGLE/

Note that I've been right concerning Socgen...for today. The next days will say if selling above 23â,¬ was the right thing to do. I'm expecting a correction on the markets pretty soon anyway. For Socgen, the first target could be 22.1â,¬, 3% below the current level.
(https://i.ibb.co/dg9mPK2/socgen.jpg)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJH-cM3glhc

The stock markets are crumbling today.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Note that the biggest drops are the banks.
In this context, I advise Ahmad and Maher to buy a few gold coins and some goats.

Powell is currently speaking.
The euro as well as the US markets are crumbling.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/devises/taux-de-change-euro-dollar-EUR-USD/

In this context, gold should go up, but it's not the case.

Live stream for the conference here: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/watch-fed-chair-jerome-powells-news-conference-live-following-first-rate-cut-in-a-decade.html

Today, I advise you to sell société générale. That's what I did, at 23.35â,¬ this morning. Maybe you will be able to come back at a lower price, the support being around 22,30â,¬. A few days ago, I told you that the target was at 22.10, and yesterday socgen was at this price indeed. It was a perfect level to buy.
https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPGLE/

Note that the Euro keeps tumbling today, as Dollar enjoys broad-based rally against major currencies.
Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, further cuts are not certain.
U.S.-China trade talks ended with no progress.


shadow.97 or aa1234779 are probably wondering if they can stay bullish on gold. I think gold will keep gleaming indeed.

The precious metal is on track for its third straight month of gains
And the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates is bullish for gold even if we saw a correction yesterday.
Most analysts think it looks it’s poised to head even higher.
“The Fed cut interest rates for the first time since 2008 with the market at all-time highs here, trying to continue the upward trajectory in economic growth. Gold has been a very good beneficiary, ” Gordon said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “I see an opportunity to put another GLD trade on.”
Gordon was referring to SPDR Gold Shares, the largest exchange-traded fund in the market that invests in physical gold. In late June, he predicted the GLD would pull back to near its mid-2016 highs â€" but when it didn’t, it made him even more bullish.

Within minutes, the Dow Jones just tumbled over 300 points this evening. In this context, I still advise you to have defensive positions.
Gold is bullish again today, Newmont goldcorp, agnico and Barrick Gold are soaring.
I'm bullish on Gold stocks. For the other stocks, I'm waiting for a correction (and I still have some socgen stocks, but I sold 30% of the position at 23.35â,¬, as I said earlier. Socgen closed at 23.50â,¬).

The cac 40 futures are now showing a decline of 1.5% (shadow.97 and aa1234779 must be thinking that tomorrow will be red indeed).

(https://i.ibb.co/x2wT8Jw/Ig-markets.jpg)

Well, a small crash is taking place this morning on the European markets.
I advise you to buy a few stocks if you don't have any:
- For Socgen or Renault, it might be an interesting price (I bought some Rno this morning at 48.50 â,¬, shortly after the opening of the markets)
- After Eramet's share price dropped by 33% in a month, it might be a good bet on the short term too.

https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

To understand what is happening:
European stock markets have fallen after the surprise decision by Donald Trump to impose new tariffs on a further $300bn of Chinese imports.

The FTSE 100 and the leading indexes in France and Germany all fell by more than 2% each.

The US president's decision came after the latest round of bilateral talks showed little sign of a breakthrough.

The 10% tariffs, due to take effect on 1 September, effectively tax all Chinese imports to the US.

The FTSE 100 dropped by 2% to 7,426.13 points. In Germany, the Dax index dropped by 2.57 % and the Cac 40 in France declined by 2.82%

The cac 40 keeps crumbling: -3%.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Note that I'm remaining bullish on gold.
As far as silver is concerned, well I don't see any bullishness. I guess aa1234779 and usman would agree with me if I was speaking of "slugishness" instead.

Well, I'm going to give you a quick insight of the stock markets today.

You are probably wondering what is going to happen on the markets today.
Here is a screenshot for the futures of the cac40, the dax and Wall Street.
(https://i.ibb.co/MG8GkPc/ig.jpg)

And it seems it's going to smell like dog poo today.
(https://i.ibb.co/JKFVb7z/wallstreetrollercoaster.gif)

(https://i.ibb.co/ScFSGgt/mb.jpg)


(https://i.ibb.co/ngsX53S/bourso.jpg)

My current strategy:
I stay bearish on stocks. I think the cac 40 can go to 5200 points (25800 points for the Dow Jones).
On these levels, We may see a short term rebound, but I don't think there will be an upward trend on the middle term.

I remain bullish on Gold and on Gold stocks.

Note that I sold Renault this morning, at 49.7â,¬ (making a small capital gain). In the current context I didn't want to take risks. If the stock price is going up, no matter. Current price 49.25â,¬.

Note that I advise you to buy Eramet for a short term trade...
The price of nickel, which is used as a key raw material for cathode material of a secondary battery, has increased by almost 40% compared to the price of nickel at the beginning of this year. Stock of nickel has reached its lowest point within the past six years. It is expected that the price of nickel will continue to go up as there are huge demands for electric vehicle battery while there is limited supply.
Spot price of nickel traded within LME (London Metal Exchange) has shown steep increase since last month and it recorded its highest price within the past year at $14,685 per ton.

Today, I'm going to hold a conference about a remote and secluded country. It is very densely populated. The photo will probably help you locate this country.
(https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/80f5f04e-0464-4777-9c65-ae3c575a8365.jpeg)

I'm going to help you a bit more.
In this country, investors are worried about the deteriorating political crisis, slowing economic growth in the region and escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. Its stock exchange lost 2.85% last night (Night for those who are in Europe or in the US).

I guess that Vasudev and humbert are thinking about the Gaza strip. The picture shows modern buildings and a lot of young people in the street, it could be over there indeed.



Actually the scene is taking place in Hong Kong. And there is no end in sight to HK's summer of unrest.

In the hours before Beijing's top office responsible for Hong Kong affairs held the first press conference in its history on Monday, rumours started swirling about how China might respond to the two months of unrest in the former British colony.

Would Beijing finally sack the city's ineffective leader Carrie Lam and agree to withdraw the controversial bill that became a tinderbox for wider concerns about civil liberties and the economy? Or would Xi Jinping put his foot down and send in the People's Liberation Army (PLA)?

China did neither, instead declaring its full support for Lam's administration and the police while urging Hong Kong citizens not to tolerate "violent acts" and "radical" behaviour.

When asked about the PLA deployment option, officials simply pointed to provisions in Hong Kong's mini-constitution which allows the government to ask for Beijing's assistance to restore.

Beijing's official response to two months of unrest was relatively restrained. The Chinese Communist Party was never going to make concessions to the protesters, particularly to demands for more democracy. But it also knows the international backlash that would follow if it took a more aggressive stance on Hong Kong's affairs.

Beijing, which has other fires to put out as it fights a trade war with Donald Trump, is playing the long game. It is betting on the unrest dying down and public opinion turning against the protest movement.

"They hope protesters will get tired. They will somehow go too far and lose the support of the public in Hong Kong and once they lose momentum they can start ratching up the oppression again by arresting democracy leaders, protesters etcetera and that will slowly bring the city back to order," Ben Bland, director of the Southeast Asia Project at the Lowy Institute, told CNBC.

"That didn't work in 2014, but that seems to be the strategy they [are] adopting again, muddling through somehow."

Another option is a more covert approach by Beijing towards Hong Kong.  In China, the propaganda in state-owned media has shifted from ignoring the events in Hong Kong to portraying protesters as violent rioters while calling for the protection of the “rule of law”.  Indirectly, it can influence how the city's leaders, police and even paid thugs from Hong Kong itself or the mainland deal the protest movement.

For the tens of thousands of people who have spent their past eight weekends protesting and hundreds of thousands of others who joined peaceful marches, China's position does not change anything.

The weekly violent clashes between police and protesters will not end along with the city's long, hot summer. The unique aspect of the protest movement is that it is leaderless, which makes it difficult to control. The events of the past two months have also shown that Hong Kong people are not as compliant as Beijing would like.

Many of the protesters are young, do not have foreign passports and having nothing to lose if they think their economic future or civil liberties are threatened.

The sight of tear gas wafting through busy residential and shopping districts has oddly become the norm for a city unaccustomed to violence. Increasingly, ordinary people are being caught up in the chaos. The tourists out for dinner in Shueng Wan with their kids on Sunday night whose eyes were stinging from tear gas or the passengers on an underground train last weekend who were beaten up with batons by pro-Beijing criminal gang members.

Tonight, the Dow Jones is dropping 700 points. The target at 25800 points was reached, since it broke that level.
The reaction of the market is going to be interesting now. I think that tomorrow will be red once again on the European indexes, following the rout of Wall Street (We'll see that tonight at 4pm in the US). Maybe there could be a moment of sheer panick tomorrow and a sell off (25 000 for the Dow and 5100 for the cac). But then a small rebound may take place...But on the long term, I think it's time to get a bit bearish, with the Chinese slowdown and some mixed results in Europe (for car makers and retailers for example).

As expected, Gold stocks are literally exploding upward.



Note that if Maher needs a donation he can contact me by pm.

Tonight, the Dow Jones dived 861 points as trade war worsens.
U.S. stocks nosedived as China's currency fell sharply and stoked fears that the trade war between the U.S. and China will again escalate.
Maher and usman are probably wondering how the Palestinian or the Pakistani stock exchange are going to react tomorrow. I don't know. In Palestine the goat traders are certainly going to shrug off these issues. But as far as the European markets are concerned, the storm is far from over.
(https://i.ibb.co/pXFF3nY/ig.jpg)

A crack is likely to happen tomorrow morning. Right now the Dow Jones is losing 445 points according to the futures.
Fortunately I have a big coverage with Gold stocks (35000â,¬ !) with significant capital gains. But I still have a "small position" on Socgen (15000â,¬) and Eramet (4000â,¬) with significant losses. However, I kept those positions because they were losing. Since the beginning of the year, I didn't make any "losing trade". And the position on socgen sold a few days ago was a winning trade too. Actually, I think that I couldn't have taken a better decision, regarding what happened on the markets.
I will tell you tomorrow morning before the opening of the markets (7am GMT) what I'm buying, and if I'm buying something.
(https://i.ibb.co/xD0jV3B/ig2.jpg)

This morning the futures were not red any more. Therefore I didn't see any opportunity on the markets.
Eramet seems to be a good bet at the current price for those who want to buy sth, as long as the level of the 38â,¬ withstands. Look at the Nickel price since early July: https://fr.investing.com/commodities/nickel?cid=959208

Rno stock is up 2%. It was a mistake to sell yesterday. if the cac loses 50 points to go below 5200 today, maybe I'll come back to say what to buy (to sum up the situation in French: "on achètera si ça se pète la gueule").

Note that I sold some Eramet (half of the positions, the ones bought yesterday). My Stategy is not "buy and hold". Actually, I think it's only a technical rebound" and I advise you to sell some stocks too, the cac 40 is up 0,89% right now.
I expect societe generale to return below 22â,¬ to buy back some stocks.
I'm still bullish on Gold and bearish on the â,¬/$ pair.

The cac 40 is now...red...I was saying it was only a technical rebound a few hours ago.

Note that I will hold some conferences tonight on the forum.
First and foremost, I will talk about gold. Then I will post a few photos of Saint Etienne. I hope Maher, Vasudev, usman, shadow.97 and aa1234779 will be present.

Tonight, I'm going to talk about gold and about the reasons why I think its price will rise, at least on the short term.
So, should you bet on the glitter of Keynes’ barbarous relic ?


Gold prices are currently rising as the Fed cut rates and US president signalled fresh trade aggression vis-à-vis China. When risks rise in asset markets, many investors turn to the yellow metal for safety. Of course, gold is no asset, for it yields no returns, even if its capital value could appreciate over time.

(https://i.ibb.co/LzkvSFY/fmd-385447.jpg)

Investment advisors over the decades have grown hoarse advising people to stay away from what John Maynard Keynes, no less, described as a “barbarous relic". Money put in gold does little for the economy. Since it has no productive value, it is seen as a dead weight by investors who insist all money should be put to work in generating more of it by way of economic activity that results in jobs and incomes.

However, none of that seems to deter people from buying gold. A glance at the metal’s prices over a century is indicative of a steady increase in demand with occasional slumps. The global reason for this is that gold is seen not just as a safe haven, something that can survive any financial meltdown, but also as a “hedge" against inflation, since its value is expected to rise in line with general price levels. While currencies can easily be debased by excessively loose fiscal and monetary policies, gold supply has natural limits; this means that so long as people want the stuff, its price cannot fall below a certain level. Currently, what with all the global uncertainty, it seems on an incline.

Consider the Indian market: India’s demand for gold jewellery hit a four-year high in the first quarter of 2019 at 125.4 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Traditionally, Indians have been biased towards gold, viewing it from a cultural prism and not just as an investment. It could yet happen that people outgrow gold as a store of value, but that day still looks far away. In the meantime, gold buyers can go buy the precious metal without worrying too much about what their portfolio advisors say.

As you can see on the graph below, gold broke a resistance at 1475$. We'll stay bullish, the next target is at 1542$.

(https://i.ibb.co/DVbwVsZ/Gold.png)

It seems that the stock markets in the US as well as in Europe remain bearish in the current context.
The Dow Jones futures are losing 278 points right now. The market seems fragile. The cac 40 is only up 25 points, vs 77 points 2 hours ago. It's nosediving again, and maybe it will be red this afternoon.

If you have currently no stock at all, maybe you can try a first buy on societe generale at 22â,¬. The recent correction made it more reasonably priced, even if it can lower. I still find the stocks of the luxury sector very expensive, even if this remains a growth industry.

The rebound did not last...

(https://i.ibb.co/k0KpRm8/cac40.jpg)

In the meantime, gold is soaring. +2.4% today. I'm wondering if 1542â,¬ is not even too low a target. At this pace, it's 1800$ per ounce by the end of the month.
https://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html

Apparently there has been a reversal trend. The Dow Jones ended flat. The cac 40 will be up 0.8% tomorrow.


Note that I've seen a young hoodlum, in a lousy car, listening to bad music. I made a grimace, like mr baboon, to show him I was not into that. He understood that he was obviously no match.

Today, eramet and societe generale are soaring.
Those who followed my advice are earning money.
I bought more share of societe generale yesterday at 22â,¬. It will be hard to break the thresold of 23â,¬ though. I put a sell order at 22.9â,¬. top of the day: 22.84â,¬...

Despite an opening in negative territory this morning in Europe, I think the technical rebound is likely to continue today. I have a target at 5400 for the cac and 26500 for the Dow Jones before a probable trend reversal. If the Cac 40 goes back to 5400, maybe you can try to buy the short tracker BX4. And if you are a really aggressive trader (you want to bet on the fall of the S&P 500 and a rise in the $/â,¬ pair, you can try the DSP5 (you have to include the currency risk in your strategy).
Note that I sold Eramet above 41â,¬. In the current context, I will only come back if there is another decline in the stock price. As for Socgen, I'm reducing the position at 23â,¬.
Note that I'm staying bullish on gold.

Visibly, there is no "technical rebound", I was wrong.
(http://i.ytimg.com/vi/iNUMYBJOZTE/hqdefault.jpg)

The cac 40 is sinking.
(https://i.ibb.co/SNyVKPb/cac40.jpg)

This morning I'm going to give you a quick insight into the financial markets.

The cac 40 was up 1% a hour ago, it's now red. The markets are very nervous. In the current context, I think the markets are bearish. Let's stay bullish on gold...
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

The Dow Jones is currently dropping 470 points. The next session will be interesting for the Asian and European markets.
(https://i.ibb.co/K6ptdW8/DJ.jpg)
They already closed in negative territory and the futures are indicating further losses for tomorrow.
Gold is up 1.04% at 1513$. In this context we stay bullish on gold stocks too.

This morning, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.


U.S. stocks fell Monday after escalating protests in Hong Kong weighed on already-dampened investor sentiment.
Losses accelerated into the final hour of trading as U.S. Treasury yields tumbled. Monday marked the ninth consecutive trading session of an at least 1% intraday move in the S&P 500.


This morning, the futures are still ugly, as the picture shows. In this context, gold is up 1.23% at 1523$.
And yet, I recommend the stock Societe generale at 21.8â,¬ with a target at 23.5â,¬. With a PE of 6, it's one of the cheapest bank stock in the European markets.
(https://i.ibb.co/BT53ycc/igm.jpg)

The stock markets are crumbling.
-0.62% for the cac40 right now.
Practically everything is red in the estx 50.
https://fr.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50-components
(https://i.ibb.co/F4TvGyQ/cac40.jpg)

In the meantime, gold and silver are going up.
(https://i.ibb.co/XJvVvQn/gold.jpg)


Well, some of us are on vacation, and maybe it's high time we drank a little Pastis-tomato.
(https://i.ibb.co/WtR2pTB/tomate-pastis.jpg)

Those who bought some Societe generale at 21.8â,¬ this morning got a good deal. It's actually at 22.38â,¬. I sold a few minutes ago at 22.49â,¬ the stocks I bought yesterday. The stock hit 21.43â,¬ this morning, this is a 5% rebound !
There is currently a technical rebound on the European markets. But for me the trend is still bearish. There is a correction on gold stocks. It might be a good opportunity to buy some Agnico Eagles mines or Newmont Goldcorp stocks.

As intended, the stock markets are still in a bearish trend...
(https://i.ibb.co/4TkQBjK/cac40.jpg)

Well, the investors of the forum like shadow.97, humbert and usmangujjar must be thinking I was right to warn them this morning. The cac 40 is literally collapsing, dropping 100 points. The cac 40 is currently falling nearly 2%.
(https://i.ibb.co/t8Ssr7V/cac40.jpg)

There are signs of a looming recession, as Germany's economy shrank during the April-to-June period of this year.
A decline in exports dampened growth, according to official data, which comes amid concerns of a global slowdown.
Early signs for the third quarter "look ominous", said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. "Manufacturing business surveys for July were all gloomy.
"And while the services sector should continue to hold up better, there are some signs that the slump is spreading to the labour market."

In this context, I'm still bearish on the markets and particularly on car stocks like Renault and Bmw, even if there is now a long lasting correction in this sector.
We'll stay bullish on gold. Currently gold is up 0.89% at 1515$ per once.

Maybe a target at 5150 for the cac 40, 25000 for the Dow Jones, and 1580$ for gold.
(https://i.ibb.co/XCHSkc3/ig.jpg)

I still see a lot of bearishness in the markets. This morning, the European markets are red, despite a positive opening. The Cac 40 and the Dax are both declining by 0.10%.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

The cac 40 is nosediving. It's now losing roughly 1% amid plunging treasury yields.

Note that once again, I advise you to take advantage of the technical rebound to sell some stocks. I sold a few societe generale this morning. The futures on the Dow Jones are up 200 points. In my opinion it won't last and the European markets will follow, the upward trend will decrease.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

In the current context, we'll remain bullish on gold.
Growing global recession fears could push gold prices to $1,600 an ounce or even higher, according to UBS as it updates its gold forecast for the rest of the year.
In a research note released Thursday, Joni Teves, strategist at the Swiss Bank, said that she is increasing her bullish outlook on gold as uncertainty grips financial markets. She said that investors are turning to the yellow metal as the U.S.-China trade war slows economic growth and central banks look to embrace more dovish monetary policies.

On the current levels, I advise you to turn bearish on the US stock markets, with a first target at 2800 points on the s&p 500, especially since the $ is likely to keep rising versus the Euro.
For the European markets, it seems the rebound is not over, and they are less expensive as you can see on the pictures below (the PE for the US is 25% higher than the average European PE).

In the world, only the Indian and New Zealand markets are more expensive (higher price earning ratio).
(https://i.ibb.co/rdqqQn2/PE.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/94t4rDv/s-p-500.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

In my opinion, the technical rebound will be over pretty soon. On the cac 40, besides the banking sector which has undergone a sharp correction over the last year, the market is still expensive.
(https://i.ibb.co/bWZ0SCC/cac40.jpg)

The â,¬/$ is at 1.1079 and gold at 1503$ per ounce. Let's stay bearish on the euro and bullish on gold.

The cac 40 is now tumbling 0.6%.
As you know I'm particularly bearish on the s&p500 since I think it has the biggest downside potential.

Well, it seems I was right when I was saying that the technical rebound was over on both the cac 40 and the s&p 500 a few hours ago. The s&p 500 ended down 0.79%.
In my opinion, we are going to continue the bearish trend that began early August. The first target on the s&p 500 is at 2865 points. And below this level, supports are much lower.
As far as gold is concerned, I still see a lot of bullishness on the yellow metal. Note that barrick gold soared today (+3.37%). Agnico and Newmont goldcorp were up too.
https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures
(https://i.ibb.co/Ny3QGgz/sp500.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the markets.

The cac40, the european markets and the s&p 500 futures collapsed suddenly as China slaps tariffs on $75B of U.S. goods.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/ (https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/)
This is the latest in the ongoing trade war Opens a New Window.  as the United States prepares to place tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods in September.

This "reinforces America's perception of China as a bad actor" said Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro immediately after the tariffs were announced.
Earlier in the morning, Hu Xijin, editor in chief at the Chinese state-run Global Times tweeted: “China has ammunition to fight back. The US side will feel the pain.”

With such news, gold passed 1500$ again. As for the Euro, it's at a one year low at 1.1065$.
As far as the s&p 500 is concerned, it is completely nosediving at 2906 points. I still have a target below 2800.
In this context, we stay bullish on gold.

Note that the new editions of windows 10 and 7 will be available by the end of the week.

Today, I'm going to talk about the economic situation.



As global economic picture dims, solutions seem out of reach.

As global leaders gather on two continents to take account of a darkening economic outlook, this is the picture they face:
Factories are slumping, many businesses are paralyzed, global growth is sputtering and the world’s two mightiest economies are in the grip of a dangerous trade war.

Barely a year after most of the world’s major countries were enjoying an unusual moment of shared prosperity, the global economy may be at risk of returning to the rut it tumbled into after the financial crisis of 2007-2009.

Worse, solutions seem far from obvious. Central banks can’t just slash interest rates. Rates are already ultra-low. And even if they did, the central banks would risk robbing themselves of the ammunition they would need later to fight a recession. High government debts make it politically problematic to cut taxes or pour money into new bridges, roads and other public works projects.

There’s a Group of Seven summit this weekend in Biarritz, France. If you want to test your optimism, take a second to study the family portrait. You will be looking at most of the generals who will lead the response to the next international economic crisis, should we have one in the next few months.

It’s hard to imagine the G7 reprising its heroics today. This year’s assembly includes too many saboteurs to be taken seriously as rescue team.

Germany is on the brink of recession. It has a huge trade surplus that implies it could be a bigger source of global demand, and it borrows for essentially nothing. Yet it still refuses to cut taxes or attempt any other form of fiscal stimulus out of fear of running a budget deficit.

Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, is bent on quitting the European Union on Oct. 31, come what may. Italy’s most powerful politician, Matteo Salvini, leader of the populist League party, chose this moment to trigger a political crisis, even though the International Monetary Fund reckons his country is teetering on the edge of its own downturn.

And of course, the G7 has done nothing to contain the biggest threat to the global economy, even though he has attended the meetings annually since being elected president of the United States in 2016. Stocks dropped (again) on Friday after Donald Trump tweeted that “we don’t need China” and the U.S. would be “better off without them.” He was commenting on the publication of the American imports that China will punish if the White House goes ahead with new duties on Chinese goods.

Trump’s trade wars have sucked the life out of the global economy, and America’s allies have proven powerless to do anything about it. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in Montreal this week that he would tell the G7 that, “we need to build a future where everyone can benefit from economic growth and where we invest to help the middle class,” a nice thought that will change nothing, since Angela Merkel, Johnson, Salvini and Trump all think their self-centred approaches to economic policy will achieve the same thing.

This is troubling because the politicians won’t be able to hide behind their central bankers when the next economic crisis hits.

In the aftermath of Lehman Brothers, the G7 finance ministers blew the battle horn, and the G20 implemented a co-ordinated round of fiscal stimulus. But it was the central banks that did the real work. They slashed benchmark interest rates across the board, and some of the biggest banks created trillions of dollars to buy bonds and other financial assets. They made mistakes, but if the mission was to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression, the effort was a clear success.

Central banks won’t be able to respond to the next downturn with the same degree of force. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate was around five per cent on the eve of the financial crisis; it’s 2.25 per cent now. Benchmark rates in Europe are near zero or even negative in some cases. The firepower just isn’t there.

So fiscal policy will need to play a greater role, and that’s a problem. Some of the bigger economies are carrying a lot of debt, which could tie the hands of a few important finance ministries.

The bigger issue is the state of politics in so many countries. Central banks are first up in a crisis because they can deploy so much faster. Fiscal policy must go through a design stage and approvals before the money is spent and begins rippling through the economy. Months would pass before the money hit the economy â€" under the best-case scenarios.

For Monday, the futures are indicating a big decline for the American markets. On Friday morning, when the s&p 500 was at 2930, I was talking about a target at 2800 points. We'll be near this level on Monday morning, probably 2815 or 2820 points, if nothing changes.
(https://i.ibb.co/wMZKVWZ/WS-weekend.jpg)

Below 2800 points on the s&p 500, another financial market slump is probable.

As forecasted, the futures for tomorrow are very red.
The Dow sheds 270 points as Trump and Bolsonaro have a rough patch in Bayonne.

(https://i.ibb.co/qFGQQ5R/cac40.jpg)


I gave a target for gold at 1580$ a few days ago and we are coming close this price. Gold is literally soaring tonight, +3.45% at 1549$ vs 1497$ on Friday.
I thing we can have a target at 70$ for Agnico eagle mines.

Today, I'm going to give you another quick insight into financial news.

Wall Street slipped on Tuesday hurt by a fall in financial stocks, while revived worries about a U.S. recession overshadowed early optimism of a resolution to the prolonged trade dispute between the world's two largest economies.

U.S. stocks were up earlier in the session, building on gains from Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump sought to ease tensions by predicting another round of talks with Beijing. China's foreign ministry, however, reiterated on Tuesday that it had not received any recent telephone call from the United States on trade.

Investor sentiment soured after the inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve deepened further and the benchmark 10-year yields slipped, underscoring safe-haven demand and worries about a softening global economy.

In this context, Agnico Eagle soared, as forecasted.
(https://i.ibb.co/9TBG7hN/agnico.jpg)

Humbert, usmangujjar and little shadow.97 are certainly wondering if the markets are gonna slip further tomorrow.
Judging by the futures and the closing of Wall Street, The cac 40 and the Dax are likely to open negatively and lose 0,5%.
We'll watch Societe Generale. The overall trend is still negative and the resistance is situated at 23â,¬. I will buy if the stocks go back to 21,8â,¬.

Adocia lost 40% since the beginning of the week. And yet I don't think it's time to buy yet. It will probably go back to 11â,¬. On this level, maybe you can buy a first position.
The newsflow and the financial context are both bad indeed.
The first ruling in the battle between Adocia and Eli Lilly over a terminated long-acting insulin deal was a David versus Goliath victory for the small biotech, which was awarded $11.6m damages a year ago. Yesterday normal service was resumed, with Lilly prevailing on the broader allegation by Adocia that the US big pharma group had misappropriated information relating to the technology that had been the subject of the deal. The tie-up had actually been signed and terminated twice, as Lilly appeared uncertain whether the timelines were aggressive enough, but in the end the company decided to go with its own long-acting insulin, Ultra-rapid Lispro, rather than Adocia’s BioChaperone Lispro. Still unresolved is a separate claim from Lilly asserting patent rights to its long-acting product, but yesterday’s arbitration result seems to make this irrelevant. Adocia’s stock was off 27% today, meaning that it has lost 80% of its value since 2015, after Lilly re-signed the BioChaperone deal. Perhaps Adocia should follow advice given to all spurned lovers and make an effort to draw a line under the incident.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24xRFPGMImY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxUuU1jwMgM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnBeTPpr98g

Today, the cac 40 is down 1.2%.
I advise you to be careful. The  Süddeutsche Zeitung is warning of an imminent financial crisis. In this context, let's stay bullish on gold.
An article here in French: https://m.dw.com/fr/limminence-dune-crise-financi%C3%A8re-majeure/a-50187859

The cac 40: https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

A few months ago, I talked about uber here: http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg34227#msg34227
And I was pessimistic concerning the stock price. I hope you listened to my advice. It lost 20% over the last week, at 32.59$. I was talking about a halving of the stock price. The target is 22$ !

Yesterday the US market rebounded. The futures are indicating they will be up today too. On such levels, 2910 for the s&p 500, I'm bearish.

Tonight, new and reposted videos are available for the users of the forum.


Repost:
Hulot â€" break the internet (with English subtitles)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKLWW_j4a_E

Angel, the best dancer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyOasG6i-hA


New:
Michel Onfray on Muslims and Sharia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkOUBc4lR_w

Valuation Is More Important Than Politics or Interest Rates: And Most Stocks Are Overvalued Today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n55zTkpUUT0

Tonight, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

The s&p 500 futures are currently indicating a stock market decline of 0.7% for tomorrow.
After the recent technical rebound, I think it's wise to keep the same strategy: be bearish on the market and bullish on gold.


I'm going to talk about the biotech company Pharnext. And the question is pretty simple: To buy or not to buy?
Shadow.97 or humbert have probably no clues about it.
To put it simply: the stock price fell by over 55% over the last week. Is it going to the cellar, or will there be a small technical rebound? In my opinion, it can be interesting to buy now, for a technical rebound of 5-10%, even if in the medium term, I think the stock will slide down further towards 4â,¬.
https://www.zonebourse.com/PHARNEXT-29750723/

Last week, Pharnext’s hopes of a quick approval for its Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease project PXT3003 have been dashed by the US FDA. The agency’s request for a second phase III study of the asset could have been foreseen after formulation issues halted the high-dose arm of the previous trial, Pleo-CMT; this was the only dose to show a significant benefit on the primary and secondary endpoints. Still, Pharnext’s stock was down as much as 42% on Friday, below its price when the company reported the first phase III data last October. Pharnext has not given details of the new trial’s design, but there must be worries about whether the group can complete it: Pleo-CMT took three years to yield data, and Pharnext had just â,¬32m ($35m) in cash at the end of March. PXT3003, a combination of baclofen, naltrexone and sorbitol, is in a long-term follow-up study set to yield data later this year. The company is also seeking a fast approval for PXT3003 in Europe, but it now looks likely that regulators there will also request another study. According to EvaluatePharma the only other prominent project in clinical development for Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease is Acceleron’s ACE-083, which is in phase II.

-0.84% on the cac40.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Be very careful, the levels of the stock markets are still high, and the next crack may indeed be imminent.
Note that I had some Pharnext stocks. Like I said yesterday, I was expecting a rebound. It took place (+6.5% right now) and I sold my position. If the stock goes below 5â,¬, I'll come back later.
https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPALPHA/

In this context gold is up 1.6% at 1545$.

Today, I'm going to talk about the future of cash.

Many countries have become cashless. It's the case in Sweden and Palestine. shadow.97 and Maher can confirm it.
It's also the case in the United Kingdom: Royal Mint Makes No New 1p, 2p or £2 Coins, As Britons Ditch Cash.

(https://www.moneyexpert.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/1p-2p-coin.jpg)

For the first time in decades the Royal Mint has struck no new 1p, 2p, or £2 coins, reflecting changes in the way Britons pay for goods and services.

2018-19 was the first year since 1972 no new 1p coins have entered circulation and the first year since 1984 there are no new 2p coins. The Royal Mint also issued no new £2 coins.

The Royal Mint releases new coins under instruction from the Treasury, which responds to demand from banks and Post Offices. In a typical year, it issues around 100 million new 1p coins.

But last year, it found there were already enough of these denominations in circulation. That’s more than 11 billion 1p coins, around 2.5 billion 2p coins, and 494 million £2 coins.

Although billions of copper coins will continue to roll around in our bags and fall between couch cushions, their future is in question. Last year Chancellor Philip Hammond announced in his spring statement that the Treasury would be reviewing cash and digital payments and the use of coins. It said it didn’t make economic sense to expensively produce coins and notes that were used infrequently.

The Treasury found that 60% of copper coins are used for just one transaction, before being stowed away, in wallets or piggy banks, or lost.

But after a media campaign and protests from charities, which rely on bucket collections, the government affirmed that it had had no plans to scrap 1p and 2p coins.

Quote from: scarface on September 07, 2019, 01:58 PM
Today, I'm going to talk about the future of cash.
Many countries have become cashless. It's the case in Sweden and Palestine. shadow.97 and Maher can confirm it.

In this country it won't happen any time soon. In order for this to work, everyone at the very least needs a bank account. Without it, using a debit card or Android/Google/Apple pay isn't possible. Not everybody has one, nor does everyone has a cell phone. There are also many people whose credit is so bad they don't qualify for a credit card and would have a hard time getting a debit card.

I'm not familiar with what's happening in Sweden or Palestine. I believe that pulling this off in Sweden is more possible than it is here. Sweden is a very advanced country with virtually no poverty. Palestine is a different story. The level of poverty is much higher, not to mention they're under Israeli occupation.Maher can't even get his own PayPal account.

Clearly governments are very interested in getting rid of cash. It'll put a serious dent in tax evasion and drug trafficking, which rely heavily on cash. Even if they resort to cryptocurrency, how many merchants accept Bitcoin, let alone all the others? Nothing will happen if Bitcoin remains as unstable as it is now.

Tonight I'm going to talk about the stock markets.
I think it's time to be cautious.

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson â€" who has mostly been bearish on stocks the last year â€" nicely lays out the case for investors to approach September and year end with caution.

For starters, the global manufacturing recession is getting next level worse. Wilson notes that 70% of purchasing managing indexes (PMIs) â€" a key gauge on the manufacturing sector’s health â€" globally are below the 50 level that separates contraction from expansion. Wilson says he hasn’t seen these types of readings since the 2008-9 financial crisis.

To that end, the Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday its PMI index dove to 49.1 in August. That was below the important 50 level and much worse than market expectations. It also marked the first time in contraction zone since 2016. New orders within the PMI report dropped to a seven-year low.

Besides weakening manufacturing conditions (insert trade war aftershocks), which is creating downside momentum to GDP readings from Germany to the U.S., Wilson says Wall Street profit estimates are beginning to come under pressure. By extension, stock prices have to adjust for this one.

S&P 500 profit estimates for the third quarter call for a 2.7% decline, worse than the 0.5% decline seen in the first half of the year. Wilson notes for the S&P 500, profits are seen diving 7.4% in the third quarter compared to a 5% decline in the first six months of the year.

Wilson expects the S&P 500 to drop about 10% to 2,700 by year end. He recommends investors stay positioned in defensive stocks such as consumer staples and utilities.

Tonight, I'm going to talk about the overvaluation of the US markets with the analysis of John Early, who is an independent advisor. He's talking about a super Bubble.


According to Early, the United States probably reached the high-water mark of its economic place in the world in the early 1950s with close to half the world's GDP and perhaps 80% of the wealth. Since then, the U.S. economy has mostly grown slower than the world. In dollar terms, 2018 U.S. GDP was about 23.9% of the world's GDP. In purchasing power parity ("PPP") terms, we are about 15.2% and China is the largest economy at 19.2%. The US share of global stock market capitalization is around 43%. With a much smaller share of the world's economic pie and faster growth abroad, 43% of the stock market pie is not justified.

Since reaching about a 20-year low in U.S. stock market relative performance in June 2008, the U.S. market has outperformed the rest of the world by about 173% or about 7.5% a year. During this 11-year stock market romp, the US economy held on to its dollar share of the pie, but declined from the 17.6% PPP share in 2008.

Using Morgan Stanley Capital International data ("MSCI") for the 43 developed and emerging stock markets and a valuation measure comparable to the PEses above, the U.S. is the most richly/overvalued stock market in the world.

Using monthly data, he thinks that model valuation suggests the market has already peaked and will trend down through September 2021 and then have a brief sharp advance to July 2022, before resuming a downtrend.

(https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/8/23/845228-15666049402496152.jpg)

And he states "If we are in a super-bubble, as I believe, and the conviction the U.S. is a safe haven changes, it's possible the U.S. (SPY) could be the worst-performing country in the next year or two. I believe America is headed for an economic and political crisis. The euphoria of elites pulling trillions of extra dollars out of businesses as personal income and bidding asset prices above historical levels will precipitate a crisis. Yet, I expect the U.S. stock market performance will be closer to the middle of the pack in the next year or two. The following countries will likely have larger declines: Thailand (THD), Austria (EWO), Italy (EWI), New Zealand (ENZL), China (MCHI), Japan (EWJ), Sweden (EWD), Taiwan (EWT), Indonesia (EIDO) and Turkey (TUR)."

And here is a link for another article where he's talking about profit collapse...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4255859-coming-profit-collapse
Latest data shows he could be right: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/24/analysts-now-expect-the-earnings-recession-to-last-through-the-third-quarter.html


In this context, I advise you to be cautious with stocks. I also advise you to take advantage of the recent gold stocks pullback to buy some of them. I still have a target at 70$ for Agnico Eagle mines for example.

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the financial markets.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that the euro zone economy was in a period of “protracted” economic weakness, with inflation staying low and the balance of risks tilted towards the downside.
He cut interest rates further into negative territory. The euro skidded below $1.10.

In this context, Newmont Goldcorp, Agnico and Barrick Gold are up 3% in premarket.
The markets are up and yet I still advise you to be cautious and essentially bearish since we are entering an era without growth.

Tomorrow, the opening of the stock markets is likely to be tumultuous. The events in Saudi Arabia could cause a stock market crash indeed. If all the oil production of Saudi Arabia were to cease, it would be a shock for the world economy.
And yet, some countries would not be affected much. It's the case for Palestine, which is subject to an embargo. Few people have cars in this country, and the economy is not based on complex logistics but on local farmers. Unlike Palestine, the United States or the European countries would be busted without oil.

Today, I'm going to give you an alternative strategy for the financial markets.

The cac 40 is close to 5700 points. Like the s&p 500, it is near its records. Gold is at 1501$ per ounce.
While I think gold still has some upside potential, I believe the markets are becoming expensive. In the cac40 for example, the luxury sector is particularly expensive since LVMH and Hermes are very pricey. If you want to play against the cac 40, I recommend the bx4, an inverse ETF for market bears.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

As far as the American markets are concerned, The ProShares UltraShort Financials ETF, created in 2007, aims to return two times the inverse daily performance of the DJ Global United States (All) / Financials Index. The fund offers a play against major U.S. banking, insurance, real estate and investment companies, such as Bank of America Corporation (BAC) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Quote from: scarface on September 07, 2019, 01:58 PM
Today, I'm going to talk about the future of cash.

Many countries have become cashless. It's the case in Sweden and Palestine. shadow.97 and Maher can confirm it.
It's also the case in the United Kingdom: Royal Mint Makes No New 1p, 2p or £2 Coins, As Britons Ditch Cash.

(https://www.moneyexpert.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/1p-2p-coin.jpg)

For the first time in decades the Royal Mint has struck no new 1p, 2p, or £2 coins, reflecting changes in the way Britons pay for goods and services.

2018-19 was the first year since 1972 no new 1p coins have entered circulation and the first year since 1984 there are no new 2p coins. The Royal Mint also issued no new £2 coins.

The Royal Mint releases new coins under instruction from the Treasury, which responds to demand from banks and Post Offices. In a typical year, it issues around 100 million new 1p coins.

But last year, it found there were already enough of these denominations in circulation. That’s more than 11 billion 1p coins, around 2.5 billion 2p coins, and 494 million £2 coins.

Although billions of copper coins will continue to roll around in our bags and fall between couch cushions, their future is in question. Last year Chancellor Philip Hammond announced in his spring statement that the Treasury would be reviewing cash and digital payments and the use of coins. It said it didn’t make economic sense to expensively produce coins and notes that were used infrequently.

The Treasury found that 60% of copper coins are used for just one transaction, before being stowed away, in wallets or piggy banks, or lost.

But after a media campaign and protests from charities, which rely on bucket collections, the government affirmed that it had had no plans to scrap 1p and 2p coins.

Sweden for some odd reason decided to make all old currency unusable forcing you get them replaced. They now look more like Euros.

I don't like cash when it comes to using it, I do prefer the privacy of it however.

When I was 13~15 I always had the equivalent of 2â,¬ in my pocket so I could get a few pieces of toast if the school lunch was horrible. It wasn't that often luckily.
Other than that, I've essentially always used contactless payment on Visa/Mastercard Debit for small purchases (I.e Vending machines). Chip+pin for purchases in stores. and paypal/swish(Enter someones phone number,verify with 8pin long code and then it will send the money, very popular and exists in a few countries in europe). Only reason I had cash was when I got it from someone else as payment. And I usually just deposited that and used my card.

I'm also not a fan of credit cards, loans, and invoices. I'm very happy I havn't had to deal with Cheques though.
Currently got 2debit cards connected to 1 bank, and another debit card connected to another bank. And then a third bank for investments/stocks etc.

I'm a big fan of Swish and would recommend you getting it, once it is available for you.


We actually spoke about coins not long ago at work, we came to the conclusion that we would most likely not pick up a 20cent from the floor as it just isnt worth the effort.

Wikipedia article for swish: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swish_(payment)

Quote from: Shadow.97 on September 22, 2019, 02:00 PM
Sweden for some odd reason decided to make all old currency unusable forcing you get them replaced. They now look more like Euros.

Sweden is probably one of the world's first cashless societes. Maybe there will be no more money at all in a few years.


Yesterday, I took a photo in Clermont Ferrand. You can see some climate activists as well as some yellow jackets.
(https://i.ibb.co/BzJCZkw/20190921-152049.jpg)
Who is responsible for this? Is it Donald Tramp? Is it the caliph of Islam? or the Chinese?
We are probably all responsible for that. A computer requires electricity and therefore it is polluting. Are we ready to stop everything like World trade, the internet, the exploitation of oil, coal-fired power stations?
While Demonstrating is easy,  addressing these issues would probably require structural changes in our societies. For the moment these demonstrations are peaceful, but I'm afraid these protests might be a harbinger of future conflicts.

I found another interesting article. Despite its title, I find it pretty optimistic...
In this article, Dave Pollard explains "why Economic Collapse Will Precede Climate Collapse".
It's pretty optimistic in the sense that it's not climate change that will trigger an economic collapse.

(http://howtosavetheworld.ca/images/Energy-Use-vs-GDP-650x406.png)

It’s encouraging to see that the terms “climate crisis” and even “climate collapse”, which even five years ago were ridiculed as doomerism, are now considered perfectly reasonable descriptions of our current state. That doesn’t mean there is any consensus on how to address it, or any widespread willingness to change our lifestyle to match this new worldview. And it certainly doesn’t mean that climate collapse can be avoided or significantly mitigated. Still, it’s a start.

Lost in this new awareness, however, is that our global industrial economy is once again teetering on the edge of what will be a long drawn-out but ultimately permanent collapse. That’s a concern because if the more pervasive effects of economic collapse come first, there’s a good chance climate collapse will once again be ignored as our attention focuses on the more immediate existential crisis of economic suffering.

(http://howtosavetheworld.ca/images/Global-energy-consumption-650x427.png)

And it is very likely that the first dominoes of global economic collapse are, as a recent NYT article highlighted (sadly, behind a NYT paywall), about to fall. And the reasons for this are even more complex and even less understood than the reasons for climate collapse. Here are a few of them:


1 This economy is built on faith in perpetual growth: faith that rapid and accelerating economic ‘growth’ can and will somehow continue indefinitely, so that investments in the future will continue to make sense. If that faith is shattered â€" if people begin to doubt that investing now in stocks, bonds, loans, real estate, commodities, and businesses will not yield a positive return commensurate with the risk in the intervening period â€" then the market value of those goods and securities will crumble, in some cases (like with stocks) to zero. No one will pay money for common stocks, which are the riskiest and lowest-ranking (in the case of insolvency or bankruptcy) securities, unless they believe that the present value (discounted at a rate that reflects the risk of the return being lower than expected) of future cash flows (dividends and sales proceeds) from that investment exceeds the current price. That means the price is hugely vulnerable to changes in perceived future cash flows (profit increases) and to perceived risk. There have been many recessions and depressions precipitated by nothing more than just such a change in perception. And to some extent that change in perception is self-fulfilling.
   
2 Economic growth is dependent on ever-accelerating amounts of debt. The economy needs people to continue to consume at ever-increasing rates, which requires most of us to borrow more and more money so we have it to spend. If citizens were to (wisely) decide to repay their debts and live within their means, it would collapse the already-leveraged money supply and bring down the economy. Unfortunately for most citizens, they don’t have the luxury to hold the line on new debts, let alone repay the existing ones. The same thing would happen, incidentally, if the banks decided to become more careful (responsible) about their lending, instead of their current practice of hard-selling gullible customers on incurring additional debts they can’t afford, at usurious repayment rates, and lending money recklessly on the strength of the ‘value’ of wildly-overpriced collateral, or simply to generate more profits and commissions.

3 Governments and banks are deliberately suppressing interest rates far below current rates of inflation. They are doing this to encourage ever-more borrowing and spending, and to force investors out of bond and other ‘fixed income’ investments into stocks (and real estate), so that the illusion of perpetual increases in stock (and real estate) values (necessary to prevent economic collapse) is continued. This is now hugely difficult to do: Interest rates in most places are near or even below zero, a nightmarish situation for those on fixed incomes, and for pension fund managers prohibited from investing all their funds in stocks. This means that, to avoid the wrath of investors and plunging values, fund managers have to buy extremely-high-risk ‘junk’ and ‘near-junk’ bonds to get any return at all, and have to take higher and higher risks on stock investments. It means listed companies are buying back their own stock to make the remaining shares more valuable on a per-share basis, because they simply can’t keep generating more and more profits-per-share any other way. It means that banks have to furiously fight anti-usury laws that would block them from charging 29% interest on credit card balances while they’re paying the same customers 0.5% on their ‘savings’ accounts â€" without usurious interest rates on such loans to the poor, they could not generate the needed double-digit increases in profits every year to keep their shares from collapsing and to avoid insolvency and bankruptcy. This ‘tax on the poor’ is a large part of the reason net worth for the vast majority of citizens is now negative and declining, while essentially all wealth accrues to the 1% (tax cuts for the rich also contribute to this). As income and wealth disparity soars, it tears at the very social fabric our economy is supposed to be supporting.

4 Most citizens are now a few months’ income away from bankruptcy, homelessness, and even hunger. Secure full-time jobs with benefits have disappeared by the millions (they’re too ‘expensive’ for profit-obsessed corporations to offer), leaving most citizens no choice but to work multiple low-paying, insecure jobs, perpetually caught in the two-income trap. While life expectancy has flat-lined, healthy life-years for the poor have fallen due largely to poor diets (they are too busy working to have time to cook healthy food), chronic anxiety and stress, and decreasing access to essential health care (whose costs continue to skyrocket year after year), leading to more and more people who are unable to participate in the labour force and hence dependent on other family members, or rendered homeless. And the population is aging rapidly, facing accelerating health-care costs and sick days, and mostly unable to even think of retiring before they die.

5 Our economy is totally dependent on inexpensive, affordable fossil-fuel energy, water, minerals, construction materials and other resources. The claims that economic growth stems from innovation, efficiency, ‘consolidation’, globalization, and ‘economies of scale’ are complete bunk. All of the growth in our industrial economy over the past century has been due to one factor: the use of cheap energy and resources. Many studies have confirmed there is an almost perfect correlation between energy production (and consumption) per capita and GDP per capita, whether measured over time or between countries. Over that century, cheap fossil-fuel energy constitutes an amazingly-consistent 80+% of that energy, and there is abundant evidence that the only thing that will change that is if (when) available fossil-fuel resources become too expensive for consumers to afford (eg if there is an economic collapse). There is likewise an almost perfect correlation between total energy production (and consumption), total GDP, total stock market value, total world population, total world imports & exports, total resource consumption, and total CO2e emissions. They have all risen, and will all fall, in lock-step.


When economic crises are local, or when there are ways to re-jump-start the economy by correcting the underlying causes that led to the recession or depression, there are levers that can be used to intervene and restore the economy to health. But we used up the last of our available levers in 2008, and we are once again at the tipping point, and this time we are looking at a permanent and global economic collapse. We are finally going to have to face that our perpetual-growth, high-resource use, environmentally-ruinous, debt-faith-dependent economy was never sustainable, and was destined to collapse sooner or later. We will soon (probably in fits and starts over the next three decades or so) be forced to return to a radically relocalized, low-tech economy of sufficiency. It will not be a graceful transition.

In short, while climate collapse will render centralized, high-tech, high-energy use civilization unsustainable, and make much (and possibly all) of the planet uninhabitable, economic collapse will likely make our lives radically different, and will do so well before climate collapse weighs in with full force.

Tonight, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

In the US, it seems there is a market downturn. The s&p 500 is now down 1%.
Dow Turned Lower After Trump Criticized China's Trade Policies: stocks reversed direction and headed down after Trump criticized China's trade policies in a speech before the United Nations.

Trump delivered his third address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York Tuesday, during which he criticized China, threatening to tighten sanctions on Iran, and said every nation has the "absolute right" to protect its borders.

"Not only has China declined to adopt promised reforms," Trump said, "it has embraced an economic model, dependent on massive market barriers, heavy state subsidies, currency manipulation, product dumping, forced technology transfers and the theft of intellectual property and also trade secrets on a grand scale."

The harsh comments followed Mnuchin's earlier announcement that he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He for trade negotiations.

"It's actually, I think, it's not next week, but the following week we'll be having those talks," Mnuchin said in an interview with Fox Business Network. The Treasury secretary said some progress was made in deputy-level talks last week.




Note that the meeting between Trump and Greta Thunberg turned out to be bumpy:
Thunberg, the Swedish climate activist, fixed Trump with a steady stare as he arrived at the UN to attend a meeting on religious freedom.
Despite expectations that President Donald Trump would snub a day-long United Nations summit on climate change, he made a surprise visit Monday morning and stayed for less than 15 minutes.
While the president’s unexpected appearance might have been lauded by climate activists, many were not satisfied with his brief participation.
Finally, President Donald Trump mocked 16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg on Twitter late Monday.
Posting a fatalistic statement the Swedish teen had made earlier Monday at the United Nations’ special meeting on climate change, Trump tweeted: “She seems like a very happy young girl looking forward to a bright and wonderful future. So nice to see!“

if Maher and humbert are looking at this picture, they must be thinking it's certainly the movie poster for the latest opus of the horror movie "the Exorcist". Actually, it's Greta Thunberg at the UN meeting.
(https://i.ibb.co/zJK2zgt/static-politico-com.jpg)

Tonight, Wall Street slid as push for Trump impeachment gains ground.

U.S. stocks fell in volatile trade on Tuesday, giving the S&P 500 its biggest daily drop in a month, as a push by some Democrats for the impeachment of U.S. President Donald Trump gained momentum.

Bloomberg reports that PredictIt, a prediction market for political and financial events, is now giving President Trump a 42 percent chance of being impeached by the end of the year in light of allegations that he pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden's son in exchange for military aid.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 141.68 points, or 0.53%, to 26,808.31, the S&P 500 lost 25.15 points, or 0.84%, to 2,966.63 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 118.84 points, or 1.46%, to 7,993.63.


Note that my message about alternative strategies was very timely indeed.
I bought some short ETF on the s&p 500 a few days ago. I think the US markets are going to keep sliding since there are too many uncertainties. We could see a s&p 500 at 2900 points or below pretty soon if there is noise.


In this context, gold is still going up.
(https://i.ibb.co/6HHyRrM/gold.jpg)

A quick insight into the markets...
The cac 40 is currently crumbling, losing 1.5%. It seems the bears are back.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

(http://www.stockrockandroll.com/blog/wp-content/woo_custom/966-Bear_Market_Stocks.jpg)

Today, I'm going to talk about the financial markets.

The Dow just dropped 200 points after weakest manufacturing reading in 10 years.

Stocks dropped on Tuesday, the first trading day of the fourth quarter, as disappointing manufacturing data stoked worries over the U.S. economy.

(https://i.ibb.co/XXxPVRc/sp500.jpg)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 206 lower, or 0.8% after rallying more than 100 points earlier in the day. The S&P 500 slid to trade 0.6% lower. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.4%.

The Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing activity contracted to its worst level since June 2009. ISM Chair Timothy Fiore pointed to trade weighing on manufacturing in a statement.

Shares of manufacturers such as Honeywell, 3M and Eaton rolled over on the data release, trading at least 1.6% lower.

U.S. and Chinese negotiators are expected to meet next week in Washington to discuss a potential trade deal between the world's largest economies.

Treasury yields reversed earlier gains as investors dumped equities in favor of the traditionally safer U.S. bonds. The 10-year yield was down at 1.654% after rising to around 1.75%. The 2-year rate dropped to 1.57% from about 1.68%.

shadow.97 and usmangujjar must be wondering what we can do in this context.
Well, I advise you to stay bearish on equities. You can still bet on gold too.

(https://i.ibb.co/R6tNgnB/2010-kodiak-bear-1.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the financial markets.


European stocks are falling across the board, in tune with their Asian counterparts, after a weak US manufacturing release magnified concerns over the health of the global economy.
The cac 40 is losing 1,56%: https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/


I know that aa1234779 likes good photos. We already have the photos of Usman, Daniil, shadow.97 and iih somewhere on the forum. And we are still waiting for the photos of Vasudev and humbert. We don't India and Texas very well, even if we have watched Indian movies and the series Dallas.
If you don't remember the series Dallas, with Bobby and JR,that was broadcast in the 90's: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlfHcCLn4pk
Here is a little photo of me and my father taken in June 2018 in the park of Saint Cloud. My father bet on gold in 2016 and this year he had a performance of 80% with 2 swing trades, which is a bit exceptional. He looks old on this photo and yet he was only 70. He died of lung cancer last December.
(https://i.ibb.co/tXk3qCf/IMG-20180505-142743.jpg)

Note that I recommend buying the biotech Pharnext, listed as Alpha on the French market.

-3% for the cac 40. Is it a crack?
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

(https://i.ibb.co/fFVRJ3F/cac40.jpg)


(https://i.ibb.co/3SgkCJN/mb.jpg)

Quote from: scarface on October 02, 2019, 01:38 PM
Here is a little photo of me and my father taken in June 2018 in the park of Saint Cloud. My father bet on gold in 2016 and this year he had a performance of 80% with 2 swing trades, which is a bit exceptional. He looks old on this photo and yet he was only 70. He died of lung cancer last December.

I know the feeling. My mother passed away Sept 2019 (10 days ago from today's date). She was 91. I take comfort in the fact that she lived a full life. My father died of pancreatic cancer back in 1998.

Tonight, I went to a restaurant with some friends. I couldn't be on the forum to post messages about a new movie or hold a conference.
Tomorrow, some new versions of windows 7 and windows 10 will be available. If you have special wishes, it's high time you made your requests.
I hope some of you downloaded the new version of We. The revolution. For now, I'm not planning to do new repacks.

Note that the s&p 500 ended lower tonight. In the current context, I think the stock markets could go down again.

We have seen that humbert lost a relative. Well, We are now in the same boat and must keep a firm hold of the oars and row together if we are to gain speed and be able to reach our destination. I and humbert are in the same situation now.  But it would not be true to say that there is nobody around us. The users of the forum are there. I know Maher, Vasudev and aa1234779 are reading the messages.
Maybe one day we will be together somewhere.

Today, I'm going to give you an overview of the stock markets.

The European financial markets are plunging today amid trade uncertainty and slower global growth. The cac 40 is losing 1.07%.



In this context, many banks are cutting jobs.
Lately, Global banking giant HSBC plans to axe up to 10,000 jobs in a cost-cutting drive as it grapples with falling interest rates, Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war, reports said on Monday, joining a list of big banks that have announced sweeping job cuts in recent months.

Reached by Fortune, the UK-based, Asia-focused bank declined comment on the reported cuts. The Financial Times first reported HSBC would slash about 4% of its global workforce of around 235,000.

The layoffs, which could be announced with third-quarter results on Oct. 28, are part of broader restructuring efforts being worked on by Noel Quinn, who took over as interim CEO in August when predecessor John Flint departed after just 18 months in the job.

It is part of a new wave of deep job cuts hitting the banking industry, which has also been affected by weak investment bank revenues, low economic growth in Europe and negative interest rates across much of the Eurozone. Add it up, and the banks are finding it increasingly hard to make a decent lending margin.

Deutsche Bank unveiled plans in July to cut 18,000 staff as part of a deep restructuring while France’s third biggest bank Societe Generale has announced 1,600 job losses. Germany’s Commerzbank also plans to shed thousands of jobs.

Tonight, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the American stock markets.


The US Stock Market fell sharply tonight amid growing pessimism on U.S.-China trade talks.
The stock market was off to a rough start on Tuesday, and although it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, rising uncertainty over trade talks with Chinaâ€"set to start Thursdayâ€"took a huge toll and prompted a further sell-off.
With fading optimism around U.S.-China trade negotiations, the S&P 500 dropped 1.56%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.19%.
The CBOE Volatility Index spiked 9.5% following Tuesday’s reports that both sides were ramping up trade tensions.

Tonight, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

U.S. stocks rose in early afternoon trading on Thursday on hopes that top-level U.S.-China trade talks would yield at least a partial deal, while a rise in Apple’s shares lifted the technology sector.

(https://www.abc.net.au/news/image/897396-3x2-940x627.jpg)

Wall Street’s main indexes moved higher after President Donald Trump tweeted he would meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday for further trade talks.


I've been right to sell some dsp5 on the short term. I already sold my position on Societe Generale too. I don't think the markets are going to be up for a long time.
This little rally seems to be fragile in the US and the Cac40/dax futures are already down 0.4%.
I still advise you to buy some Pharnext stocks (code Alpha), the context was pretty bad for the biotech equity sector lately and Pharnext's stock price declined by 40% over the last month.

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.


Global stocks followed Wall Street higher Friday on optimism about U.S.-Chinese talks on ending a tariff war, while oil prices spiked 2% after a rocket attack on an Iranian tanker.

Market benchmarks in Frankfurt, Paris, Shanghai and Tokyo advanced, while London declined.
Sentiments were buoyed by the start of trade talks Thursday and President Donald Trump’s plan to meet Beijing’s envoy. Economists say a final settlement to the sprawling dispute is unlikely this year, but some traders are hoping for a cease-fire on further tariff hikes or other issues.
Markets have soared and fallen during 12 previous rounds of talks that produced no progress toward ending the costly fight over Beijing’s trade surplus and technology ambitions.
“It looks like investors are positioning themselves for a potentially favorable outcome,” said Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com in a report. “Are investors setting themselves up for disappointment?”


In the current context, I sold my last positions (Renault). I think it's better to be cautious. Once again, American stocks are highly priced.
Here is an interesting chart.
(https://i.ibb.co/8Dc6ZvJ/growth-value-ratio-image004.jpg)
and I advise the most intrepid users of the forum to buy inverse ETF on the s&p 500, like the PROSHARES TRUST SHORT (SH). Using the S&P 500 as its benchmark, SH aims to match the performance of that index if it begins to plummet, by investing in derivatives, that may include futures contracts, swaps, and stock options. The fund focuses on the behavior of large-cap stocks but also watches real estate investment trusts (REITS). Bear in mind that an investment in this fund will lose money if stock prices ascend.
You can also try the PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHRT S&P 500 (SDS). SDS is an aggressive fund that strives to achieve two times the inverse of the S&P 500. Its large-cap focus, coupled with its strategy of doubling the inverse of the index makes SDS a higher-risk ETF than the aforementioned SH fund.

A few months ago, I wrote a message about the IPO of Uber. And I warned you about the price of the stock.
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg34225#msg34225
At this time, it was valued at 82 billion $, or 45$ per stock. I was saying that the stock was grossly overvalued and added a few articles. I'm sure Maher and Usman are still laughing about it. And in the next message, I was wondering if uber was not going to be a new snapchat, and lose 50% in the 6 following months.
So 5 months later, where is uber?
The stocks lost "only" 30% over the last 5 months, and the stock price is actually at 31$. There was probably a gross overvaluation of Uber indeed. Now the stock price still needs to lose roughly 20% to reach the first target (23$). And even at this price Uber would be probably way too expensive.

For those who want some articles about Saudi Aramco:
Saudi Aramco Shares Climb 10% in pre market...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-11/saudi-aramco-shares-climb-10-in-pre-market-auction

What's Wrong with the Saudi Aramco IPO?
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/11/26/782779128/whats-wrong-with-the-saudi-aramco-ipo?t=1576065734904

Note that the Dow Jones futures are now losing 360 points, indicating a possible crash for tomorrow. The s&p 500 futures are now at -2%.

Well, it's a bit odd because a few hours ago I was watching an interesting video about a man who is predicting a "megacrack" with serious arguments.

The newspaper Les Échos (owned by LVMH) published an interview with David Solomon, boss of Goldman Sachs, in which he ensures that there will be no financial crisis in 2020. Olivier Piacentini strongly disagrees with these allegations on the basis of various indicators of the global economy.
First, he says that corporate debts are very high (and it's a much bigger threat than the trade war). Then he says that the actions of central banks made asset bubbles. And he says that at the end of 2007, the newspaper les Echos already released an article stating there would be no financial crisis, 2 months before it actually broke out.
It's difficult to know if Olivier Piacentini will be right, or not. However, I advise those who are interested in stock markets, like shadow.97, to be careful.
As I said earlier you can still buy Gold or Silver. Since my advice a few days ago, when Silver was below 18$, it already rose by 3 percent (currently at 18.6$). I have a target above 20$ for Silver. Btw, I have Silver ingots and many gold coins, in a bank safe, in Paris.
Well, I'm going to tell shadow.97 the truth: I don't know if the Swedish stock markets is overvalued actually. And I don't care. But as far as the American markets are concerned, they are expensive. US Analysts are expecting...a 10% rise in earnings for 2020, just to "justify" current valuations. When we know that earnings decreased by 0,3% in the US in both the 3rd and 4rd quarter of 2019, I'm not sure this forecast will be met.

Here is the video with Piacentini, talking about "a megacrack" (in French).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeLgN_UhG1c
(https://i.ibb.co/nLMrFKD/piacentini.jpg)


Note that the installers of MKVtoolnix, Libreoffice and handbrake were updated on the forum.
Note that I made a much smaller repack for the Frictionalgames. For the moment this repack is not available, it's still experimental since I modified some dds files (the textures) with a new program. I will release it if it works.
I will try this program on Crysis 3 too see if it works, since it uses dds files too.

Tonight, I'm going to talk about the financial markets.


Yesterday, we have seen a sell-off on the s&p 500 and in Europe due to the Coronavirus. Now, what's next?

Maybe some of you watched the video I posted a few days ago with Howard Marks who was giving his opinion about the stock markets. This new video explains the stance of Howard Marks when he says that the odds are not in the investors’ favour. This video is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWb0XZmozno
I'm talking about it because I agree with Howard Marks. Asset prices can go higher, but generally speaking, everything is expensive. And it's particularly true for the US stock markets.
For instance, let's talk about Apple. Its earnings are impressive. But the stock price doubled last year. And yet, earnings didn't increase. The sales of Apple Smartphones even decreased in 2019 compared to 2018.

Let's take another indicator: to gauge stock market valuations, investor Warren Buffett focuses on the market capitalization of all publicly-traded U.S. stocks to U.S. GDP, calling, this "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment". Right now, this ratio is at an all-time record high of 153%!, even higher than at the peak of the Dotcom bubble (146%). At 70% to 80%, it is safe to put money in stocks. At 100%, there is danger. At 140%, there is extreme danger (article here: https://www.ccn.com/buffett-indicator-warns-stocks-doomed-worse-crash-than-2008/)

All this doesn't mean that stocks are going to crash tomorrow. However, should the s&p 500 go back to a ratio of 70% of gdp, it would go to 1600 points.

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

The s&p 500 is down 1%. After yesterday' sudden "flash crash", it's the second day in a row that we are seeing a significant correction. I think some investors are beginning to leave the stock markets: they are expensive and coronavirus is going to hit earnings. In this context, The cac 40 is also down 0.85%.
Silver and gold are soaring.

(https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2020/02/0/0/Gold-graphic.png?ve=1&tl=1)

Note that a little crack is currently taking place on the stock markets. On the short term the markets could rebound, but I'm expecting them to go lower.

(https://i.ibb.co/F6hyq9D/cac40.jpg)

After market closing for the cac 40.
It's certainly not over, I think the markets could still lose 10% or more.

(https://i.ibb.co/542c61f/cac40.jpg)

Here is a brief overview of the stock markets.

After yesterday's sell-off the cac 40 is headed lower in the current context, losing 0.92%. I expect the s&p 500 to keep coming down in the coming days or weeks too.

Smcp tumbled 22% in 2 days due to the coronavirus and the closing of shops in China. Losses are now expected.
There could a rebound of the stock price on the short term, but in the middle term the stock remains in a downtrend.

(https://i.ibb.co/sHrKdDQ/smcp.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

Those who bought some smcp stocks, as advise above, are currently earning big bucks: the stock is up 8%. I bought some stocks yesterday and I sold them. If you haven't bought smcp yesterday, I don't advise you to buy today since the situation in Asia and the expected losses don't give a significant upside potential to this stock.
The US stock markets are going to open higher today. However, if there could be a rebound in the short term, I'm still bearish for the s&p 500, with a first target at 3050 points.

Note that Shares of Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK, are tumbling 22.26% in the NYSE, after the oil and gas company reported a narrower than expected fourth-quarter loss but revenue that fell more than expected.
This doesn't bode well for the sector of the American shale oil.

Chesapeake Energy is almost bankrupt. The company swung to a net loss of $346 million, or 18 cents a share, from a profit of $576 million, or 57 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding non-recurring items, the adjusted loss per share was 4 cents, beating the FactSet consensus of 6 cents. Revenue fell 31% to $1.93 billion, missing the FactSet consensus of $2.02 billion, as oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) revenue fell 44% to $969 million. Average daily production rose to 477,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) from 464,000 BOE, while average prices fell. The company is reducing its 2020 capital expenditure budget by about 30% to $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion from $2.25 billion spent in 2019. The stock had already tumbled 25.5% over the past three months, while the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF XLE has dropped 16.8% and the S&P 500 has slipped 0.4%.

(https://i.ibb.co/1Kt3RV3/Chesapeake-Energy.jpg)

I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

As coronavirus keeps spreading in new countries and notably in the middle East and the US, the WHO is now speaking of pandemy. If the coronavirus isn’t contained, it could trigger a severe global recession according to economists.
In this context the world stock markets are crumbling: the cac 40 is tumbling 1.60% as the s&p 500 was down yesterday after an aborted rebound. The next target could be 2800 points for the s&p 500.
Note that Renault keeps sliding. Fnac is the best winner, up 7%.
If you were shorting the markets, I advise you to reduce your position anyway. That's what I did this morning, I sold some dsp5, up 5%. But I don't advise you to buy anything for the moment, it's too early. In all likelihood, with the current uncertainties, stock markets may go lower.


(https://i.ibb.co/CV5Khn7/cac40.jpg)

The cac 40 is now tumbling 3,33%. I think you can slowly begin to buy even though we may have not reached the bottom of the cellar yet.
Societe generale might be interesting on the short term, should the markets rebound. Or course we stay bearish on a longer term horizon.

The coronavirus crack is still underway (the stock markets are currently going up though).
(https://i.imgur.com/cAnUM9C.jpg)

Well, I advised you to buy societe Generale this afternoon and it turned out I was probably wrong on the short term. The s&p 500 crashed after the closing of the European market and tomorrow we can expect an opening for the cac 40 below 5400 points. Actually I bought some Societe Generale stocks at 26.90â,¬ but I still have some dsp5 too so I'll keep decreasing my bearish positions as long as the markets is going down. This crash is a real bonanza.
This afternoon, Pierre Sabatier was talking. He's always good in his forecast. And he was saying that despite the recent correction, the US stock market is still high actually. And that the fallouts of the coronavirus will be pretty negative for the economy. So he didn't rule out he possibility of another 10% correction on these levels... When he was speaking the s&p 500 was at 3050 points, so maybe we'll see the 2800 points I was was talking about a few days ago. The s&p 500 future are currently showing 2950 points.

Video here (in French): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqUf9h8yk2Y
(https://i.ibb.co/3pmk38L/sabatier.jpg)

Tomorrow's European market opening could be another bloodshed according to the ig markets futures. We'll probably have a terrible crack during the first trading hour. Maybe there will be trading opportunities then. I'll keep you posted.

(https://i.ibb.co/k3Zp1XC/ig-market.jpg)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frPs2qN8FuI

Note that I sold all my short positions on the s&p 500 and doubled my position on societe generale. Now I'm waiting.
If you are buying, be careful. It seems the markets are pricing a depression due to the coronavirus. This virus must be very nasty.
Therefore the correction might not be over. Note that I don't advise you to do a "all in" either. I just invested one third of my cash in Socgen and for the moment I'm losing since I bought the first position yesterday (the cac40 is tumbling 3.8%! ).

(https://i.ibb.co/4RgSxTL/cac40.jpg)

If I had not bought the dsp5 gradually, I would have lost a lot of money. By averaging down, I could earn money, roughly 3000â,¬, but when I think I had a virtual loss of 10000â,¬ one week ago, I can say I went back a long way. If I had kept all my positions and sold them today, instead of selling them gradually, I would have earnt more than 10000 instead of 3000. Unfortunately, I sold only 1/3 of my initial position today. (700x 33.5â,¬) But It's easy to say that now. I sold a first winning position at...27â,¬ at the beginning of the week to reduce it and get cash. I don't know if I was expecting a correction of the stock market any longer. It was pretty steep anyway. If some of you have stocks, well it's high time you bought a coffin. But you can come and tell us your strategy if you are losing money.
You see, Bernard Arnault lost 15 Billion$ with the markets since the beginning of the year. Probably more today since LVMH is losing 3%. But I earnt money since the beginning of the year. So I'm earning more than a billionaire.


Note that tonight, I'm going to present another recipe with a famous white wine.


How to turn 300 000$ into 5 cents?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxAguzN5OJQ
(https://i.ibb.co/m4jGwCW/Bitcoin.jpg)

Note that the Dow Jones is currently down 969 points. Since Trump was counting on a good stock market to get re elected, Bernie Sanders might be the next president of the US.

In this context, even gold is crashing. It is currently tumbling 4%. It's a real stampede. The investors want their cash back to buy a good bottle of wine and a saucisson.
It turns out that it's Howard Marks who was right (one month ago, "odds are not in investors' favor"). For Dalio, it was "cash is trash": he was all-in on equities and gold.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyESSFFVUZY
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/jyESSFFVUZY/hqdefault.jpg)

Note that apparently the stock markets could rebound next week.
The cac 40 and the Wall Street cash futures are up significantly.
I told you to buy, carefully, today. I reinforced my positions on Societe Generale 3 times today as I was anticipating a rebound, at least on the short term. I'm all-in. It's too early to say whether it will be a dantesque rebound, however, after a fall of 15%, maybe the stock market can go up 5% or more. However, should the markets go back to their previous high, I would short the s&p500.

These are the biggest losers of the cac40. Performance since January 1st...Renault and Technip are going through a rough patch apparently.
(https://i.ibb.co/2vVhmsY/cac40.jpg)

Tonight, I will give my scenario for the stock markets on the short term and for the rest of the year.
I'll try to answer the questions of shadow.97 too.


(https://i.ibb.co/K7dZ54W/baboon-003.jpg)

Tonight, I'm going to give you my scenario. Note that it's a bearish scenario, and the actual result could be different. After all the s&p 500 could end the year at 3600, as many analysts were predicting earlier this year.

Early February, that’s what I was writing on “mystrategicforecast” here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-ZEHmo3qUw : ”My scenario is unfolding as expected. The markets are going to be up till roughly 15 February to reach a major top. And considering the current valuation of the markets, we'll be in for a fall of 30% or more then.”

Well, a correction took place indeed. For the moments the markets have lost 13%. So, what’s next? Maher, shadow.97 and humbert want to know.
When I was looking at the markets a few months ago, it reminded me of what happened in 2011. Early 2011, all the analysts were bullish but the markets were a bit high. It was pretty clear that something was about to happen.
With Fukushima we have seen a first earthquake: The stock market lost 7%. They bounced back and reached their previous high. And In June it was the debt crisis: the market priced a recession, and the cac 40 lost 18% over a two week period. I remember this. At this time I was living in the 11th arrondissement of Paris near the place of Bastille.
(https://i.ibb.co/Q8f1Vyt/cac-40-8-aout-2011.gif)

I think that the scenario for 2020 could be eerily similar.
We have seen a first correction with the coronavirus. The markets are pricing a recession and lost 13%. On the short term, the markets will probably rebound. Note that for the moment the Wall Street Cash futures are currently negative once again (see picture above). I’m not expecting them to go back to their previous highs though. Maybe the markets can go up 5%. The s&p 500 would be at 3100. Then, I expect the market to go back to 2950, because earnings could be disappointing. The stock market correction and the coronavirus could have long-lasting effects on the economy.
A few weeks later, what could trigger another downward movement of 15% this summer? Well, I expect Bernie Sanders to receive the nomination among the democrats. The stock markets could price the potential election of a communist president then.
(https://i.ibb.co/D4fjvTr/bs.jpg)

As far as shadow.97 is concerned, well, if he has to pay 1600â,¬ for his rent, this is pretty positive since it’s a big house. You have to tell the landlord that if he is too selective he won’t find any tenant. You are the boss, don't forget that.
Note that if you are working in Ile de France, I’m looking for a flat for june. A roommate with good credentials like you would be perfect.
As for the games, I understand you are playing too much. I did that too. When I was 15 I used to play Super Mario Bros 3 and Sonic 2 all day long on the NES and the megadrive. And then I used to play Gran Turismo 2 with friends (I never had any game console besides the 2 above).
For those who don't know SMB 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxT6IwUtLSU
Between 2005 and 2014, I stopped playing games altogether.  It’s just recently that I downloaded again a few games, hence the repacks on the forum. But If you think it’s too time-consuming, just ditch your xbox or playstation, I mean those on the forum are sufficient. And try to spend more time cooking nice dishes, it’s better for your health than Mcdonald.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXxfBPDa1JY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uenM0nb8Vz8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wusRqZlEYVw


(https://i.ibb.co/LY4pKTc/baboon2.jpg)


Here is another example of good recipe: mackerels with rice, and some shallot slices cooked with white wine.
Here you can see the 2 mackerels that I prepared. I went fishing several times in the Mediterranean see 20 years ago and they used to be bigger actually. With the shallot sauce and some curcumin the rice was pretty good. But the Chablis was a bit disappointing. Enough for the shallot sauce, but not as good as a Sauternes.
aa1234779 and Maher probably don't know but the word maquereau (or its abbreviation mac) (mackerel in French) also means "pimp".

(https://i.ibb.co/3kMYv1W/20200229-212838.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/r5hRxWv/20200229-220718.jpg)

update: Note that the Wall Street cash futures are now plunging 535 points. They were up 250 points Friday evening though, but the Dow Jones could still open 1% lower on Monday.

Tonight, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets of the Gulf countries.

Kuwait market plunges before suspending trade

Kuwait’s bourse â€" trading after a three session break â€" on Sunday plunged 11 per cent to its biggest ever fall in a single day, the hardest hit among all other GCC markets.
The bourse suspended trading for rest of the day due to the steep decline, led by a 14.5 per cent drop in National Bank of Kuwait and a 10 per cent slide in Kuwait Finance House.
The rapid sell-off was triggered after Kuwait recorded 46 people infected with the coronavirus.

(https://i.ibb.co/zbjhMpC/kuwait.jpg)
Kuwaiti traders wear protective face masks, following the outbreak of the new coronavirus, as they stand on the upper floor since the lower main hall is closed to traders at the Kuwait Boursa stock market trading in Kuwait city, Kuwait March 1, 2020.


The majority of infections in other Gulf countries were diagnosed in people who had visited Iran or who came into contact with people who had been there.
There have been 43 deaths and several hundred confirmed infections in Iran, according to authorities.




Saudi Arabia is the only Gulf countries to have not reported any coronavirus cases.
Saudi Arabia had temporarily suspended the entry of foreigners for pilgrimage and tourism purposes, while Qatar, which reported its first coronavirus case, was close for a public holiday.
State-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco slipped 2.1 per cent to 32.65 riyals, hitting its lowest since it began trading on Dec. 11. It was still trading above its debut price of 32 riyals.

Note that I sold half of the positions on Societe Generale at the opening of the markets at 25.95. The rebound seems weak. Socgen is now at 25.10. Let's wait.

The cac 40 was at +1% when I was speaking of a weak rebound...
It's now losing 1.5%. It might be time to buy back some stocks. I sold this morning and bought the same position of Societe Generale at 24.8â,¬ and 24.4â,¬. The market is probably going to remain volatile.

I was forecasting a rebound of the s&p 500 in this message and a potential target at 3100 points. http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg35163#msg35163
It took place indeed since the s&p 500 is currently at 3090 up 4.60%...

So what's next? Tomorrow, I'm expecting the European markets to open higher. The s&p500 futures could be up too and briefly touch 3150 points. I advise you to sell some stocks during the morning, as I'm expecting a trend reversal in the early afternoon, before the opening of Wall Street.

Once again there is a rebound of the European stock market this morning. It's probably time you sold your stocks. After the huge rebound of the sp500 yesterday, there could another downward movemement.
I sold societe generale at 25.48â,¬.

As expected, there is a correction of the s&p 500, once again. The cac40 was up 2,5% this afternoon. It was finally up 1.12% to close at 5393 points. 2 weeks ago, it was above 6000 points. It was interesting to sell this afternoon indeed.
The Dow Jones is currently losing 380 points. In this context, gold and silver are soaring.
Actually, even if valuations are less stretched, I still some some bearishness in this market. The Dow Jones could go to 25 000 and the cac 40 to 5200 points (roughly 4% below the current levels), before temporarily stopping their fall.

(https://i.ibb.co/0VR73GY/712-15.jpg)

Today, the European markets are going up as the s&p 500 futures are climbing.
Since there has been a serious correction lately, I advise you to buy some bank stocks. Many bank shares hit a one year low recently, and in the short term, there could be a significant recovery. For example Societe Generale lost roughly 25% (from 32â,¬ to 24â,¬). A short term target could be 26â,¬. However, I think the coronavirus turmoil is not over. What's more, Biden is the front-runner again, that could help push stocks higher.
(https://i.ibb.co/zJwHVZv/cac40.jpg)

Note that the stock markets across the Gulf fell dramatically during Sunday trading.
Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange, the Tadawul, was down 7.7% in afternoon trading.
The Abu Dhabi index fell 5.8%, Dubai’s Financial Market General Index was down 7.47% and Kuwait’s index had plunged by 10% at 1:30 p.m.
Note that the Kuwait Premier Market index was suspended on Sunday after hitting a daily decline limit of 10 per cent in company share values. This was the second time in only over a week that trading on the market was suspended due to a rapid downward decline.

Shares of Saudi Aramco fell below their initial public offering (IPO) price on Sunday for the first time since they began trading in December after the OPEC oil supply cut pact with Russia fell apart on Friday.
Aramco shares were trading at 30.00 riyals, down 9.09%, compared to the IPO price of 32 riyals.

A Kuwaiti trader wears a protective face mask.
(https://i.ibb.co/CvrrGHP/kuwait.jpg)

Note that a crack could take place tomorrow...

Stock futures tumbled in overnight trading Sunday as investors continued to brace for the economic fallout from the spreading coronavirus, while a shocking all-out oil price war added to the anxiety.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 900 points. The S&P 500 futures also indicated a 4% drop at the open on Monday. The sharp declines in the futures market pointed to more turbulence ahead after a roller-coaster week that saw the S&P 500 swing up or down more than 2.5% for four days straight.

Saudi Arabia on Saturday slashed official crude selling prices for April, in a sudden U-turn from previous attempts to support the oil market as the coronavirus hammers global demand. The move came after OPEC talks collapsed Friday, prompting some strategists to see oil prices crater to $20 this year.

“Crude has become a bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said Sunday. “It will be virtually impossible for the [S&P 500] to sustainably bounce if Brent continues to crater,” he added.

International benchmark Brent crude futures plunged 30% to $32.05 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 27% to $30.07 per barrel.

(https://i.ibb.co/TMDn64f/WS.jpg)

Note that I advise you to sell the rebound on the European markets. The situation is still shaky and the stock markets could lose part of their gains during the afternoon. The cac 40 is currently up 3.83%.

This morning, I told you to sell your stock. So what happened on the European markets then?

On the right you can see a large chart for the cac 40. The chart is pretty similar for the Dax 30 or the FTSE MIB.
They were all up at least 3% this morning and they end up down at least 1.5% (-3.5% for the MIB).

The only exception is the Athens stock market which ended up 5.93% but it's still one of the worst performance since the beginning of the year (-31%).

Now on such levels, I think it might be interesting to buy for the long term. What we are living right now is the worst financial crisis since 2008.
Now the question is: what kind of stock can we choose?
Because even if the markets have undergone a very serious correction, I'm not sure that markets will go straight up as soon as the coronavirus is over. And above all, some stocks could keep going down. Personally, I think that the bank stocks are correctly valued on the current levels with good dividend yields. So I recommend Societe Generale which was up despite today's turmoil, with a target at 28â,¬. Note that Socgen announced a stock buyback one month ago when the share price was at 32â,¬. Now it's only at...18.2â,¬ !
It's hard to recommend oil stocks in such an environment. I won't recommend car makers either, I don't know where they are going. Bmw was at 54â,¬ this morning on the dax 30, it closed at...50.30 â,¬, its lowest level since October 2010. And Renault is down 52% since the beginning of the year.
Fundamentally, I strongly recommend not to buy Tesla which is probably overvalued. Tesla is worth more than Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, Renault, and Hermes combined.

The recommendation to sell the markets took place at 11.07 am GMT.
(https://i.ibb.co/vXT1bSp/cac.jpg)

Note that I see a lot of bullishness for the European markets for the rest of the week,despite the fact that Italy is quarantined. I think that the markets were waiting for strict measures to deal with the Coronavirus.
Plus the Euro that is now going down (I think the Fed won't keep low interest rates as soon as the Coronavirus comedy is over and I'm still bearish on the â,¬/$ pair).
Tonight the Dow Jones closed significantly higher. And the cac 40 futures is showing 4800 points. I think the cac 40 could come back to 4950-5000 or even 5200 in the coming weeks.

To give you a slight idea of the value of the cac 40 compared to the American stocks, take Facebook, Tesla and snapchat and it's roughly worth as much as 37 companies of the cac 40 (except Total, LVMH and Hermes).

For tomorrow, I recommend a buy and hold strategy. In my opinion bank stocks could be the best performers in the weeks to come. As I said earlier, I woud be very cautious with the car maker sector. The market is not pricing current cash flows but the fact that petrol cars could disappear in a near future. That's why Tesla is valued at 120 billion $ and Peugeot at 12 billion â,¬, even though the former is not earning money and the latter has a net profit which increased 13.2% to 3.2 billion euros in 2019.

I was talking about a "Buy and hold" strategy a few hours ago.
Shadow.97 must be wondering if it's still valid.
Let's have a look at the futures:
(https://i.ibb.co/pnJBnzt/f40.jpg)

Since the main place, Wall Street, is down before the opening (practically -2% now) it's perfect to buy stocks at the opening of the market tomorrow.
I guess shadow97 would have liked to see the OMX stockholm 30 futures, unfortunately ig markets only displays the main stock markets futures. I just watched the evolution of the OMX 30. It's pretty similar to the other stock market indexes, ie down 20% since early mid February.

Note that I will go back to the Paris region in 2 months. I found a flat in the Hauts de Seine. It's smaller and much expensive than my flat of Saint Etienne, but I guess you can't compare the prices of Saint Etienne and the Paris region. Maybe I will go to Cairo in May or August though. I've always wanted to visit this town. Maybe I could meet Ahmad or Maher over there. Who knows? And maybe a wife too.
If shadow.97 is looking for a flat in Ile de France, near Paris, and if he (or she) has a job, he can be my roommate (for 300â,¬ per month only). If you are interested, send me an email.

Quote from: scarface on March 10, 2020, 11:20 PM
Note that I see a lot of bullishness for the European markets for the rest of the week,despite the fact that Italy is quarantined. I think that the markets were waiting for strict measures to deal with the Coronavirus.

This Coronavirus thing has reached a point of mass hysteria. My lady's sister in Mexico called to tell us it was next to impossible to obtain antibacterial soap or any sanitizer there. Even here in San Antonio where there has been just ONE case, these items are hard to come by. I heard on the news that the NCAA cancelled its college basketball tournament, and the NBA has cancelled some games. All this due to massive gross exaggerations by the news media fueled by sheer panic for a disease that has a kill ratio well under 10%.

Be advised I'm being realistic and not complacent. If this were Ebola I'd be more seriously concerned. BTW, you guys DO remember Ebola, don't you?

Quote from: humbert on March 13, 2020, 04:11 AM
This Coronavirus thing has reached a point of mass hysteria. My lady's sister in Mexico called to tell us it was next to impossible to obtain antibacterial soap or any sanitizer there. Even here in San Antonio where there has been just ONE case, these items are hard to come by. I heard on the news that the NCAA cancelled its college basketball tournament, and the NBA has cancelled some games. All this due to massive gross exaggerations by the news media fueled by sheer panic for a disease that has a kill ratio well under 10%.

Be advised I'm being realistic and not complacent. If this were Ebola I'd be more seriously concerned. BTW, you guys DO remember Ebola, don't you?

Well, we could say I was wrong on 10 march...the cac was down 12% on 12 March...

Note that I advise you to buy bank stocks now. The rebound is likely to continue next week. I see a significant upside potential.
And I think the cac 40 could go back to 5000 points once the coronavirus turmoil is over.

As for humbert's question, there is also a shortage of Hydroalcoholic gel here. There is indeed an exaggerations by the news media...
I remember Ebola but I think it was a concern mainly in West Africa.

Note that the threat of the Coronavirus is so severe in France that I've been imposed technical unemployment.
I guess it's probably the case for some users of the forum.
I read that 3 cases of Coronavirus were found in Palestine. Maybe Maher was quarantined too.

Quote from: humbert on March 13, 2020, 04:11 AM

Quote from: scarface on March 10, 2020, 11:20 PM
Note that I see a lot of bullishness for the European markets for the rest of the week,despite the fact that Italy is quarantined. I think that the markets were waiting for strict measures to deal with the Coronavirus.

This Coronavirus thing has reached a point of mass hysteria. My lady's sister in Mexico called to tell us it was next to impossible to obtain antibacterial soap or any sanitizer there. Even here in San Antonio where there has been just ONE case, these items are hard to come by. I heard on the news that the NCAA cancelled its college basketball tournament, and the NBA has cancelled some games. All this due to massive gross exaggerations by the news media fueled by sheer panic for a disease that has a kill ratio well under 10%.

Be advised I'm being realistic and not complacent. If this were Ebola I'd be more seriously concerned. BTW, you guys DO remember Ebola, don't you?

There were no hand sanitizers, toilet paper or bread when I went to buy food yesterday.
I do certainly remember Ebola and Kony2012

Regarding stocks, I was actually planning on trying to buy some yesterday, but found out that I have a limit on my account so that I cant send any money internationally unless I wait a few days. So.. Yeah!

Actually, I still see a lot of bullishness ahead for the markets, when the coronavirus melodrama is over.
On these levels, many European stocks have become pretty cheap. Fnac Darty or Airbus lost half of their value over one month.

However, I still see some downside potential for a few American stocks. For example Tesla. And today, despite the fact the Wall Street is going up, Tesla is losing 5%.

How much money do you have invested in stock? Give us an idea of how much money you've made, or lost? I'm just curious as to why people invest in it. To me it's not much different from playing in a casino.

I won't reveal how much I have. But what is important is the long term. Since the beginning of the year, I'm losing 10% of what I invested. I was right at the beginning of the year because I had no stocks. The market was too expensive. However I bought stocks in the middle of the fall. It wasn't a good idea. But I think they could go up when the coronavirus episode is over.
I invested in Natixis (they are up today). At the current price the yield is 17%...
Many stocks collapsed. Look at Boeing or Tesla, they keep going down today.

Note that the Wall Street futures are pointing to another market decline.
They are currently down 1100 points.

(https://i.ibb.co/YBTTJ2z/ws.jpg)

Note that on the current levels I think it could be an opportunity to buy stocks on the cac 40.
I don't know what to think about airplane makers though. They were grossly overvalued before. And despite the fall of Boeing (-15%) and Airbus (-16% today), I don't know if there is a big upside potential. But on the current levels, French car makers are pretty cheap. Sanofi is a solid company that can be interesting too.

Note that I sold 25% of Natixis yesterday (at 1.80) and today (at 1.88). Oddly enough the stock just lost 4% from the top. For the rest, I will sell above 2.20â,¬, or I will buy back the same positions below.
Note that I think the cac 40 could go back to 4100 points. Since Wall Street is losing 1240 points right now (once again), a rebound of the stock markets could take place (at least on the short term).

Note that Uber, Tesla and American airlines are crumbling.

(https://i.ibb.co/y5MfP99/uber.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/4MHghyt/tesla.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/Gt7nzS9/AM.jpg)

I was speaking of rebound and I was probably mistaken. The Dow Jones is now down 2250 points.

Finally, the Dow Jones "only" lost 1338 points. For those who have stocks on the European markets, we can be reasonably optimistic about a rebound in the next few days. I think the cac 40 could easily go back to the area of 4000-4100 points. If you are looking for stocks, on the current levels the European banks are pretty cheap. And if you want to invest in the health sector (defensive stocks), I advise you to buy Roche, Sanofi and Novo Nordisk.
Among the stocks that collapsed today in the US and in Europe we can find: Airbus -22%, Boeing -17%, Tesla -16%, CNP -21%, Chevron -19%; Coca cola -10%, Nike -8%...

Note that the cac40 is up 3.4%. In the current context, I sold some Societe Generale stocks. The Wall Street futures are flat, but I expect one more "coup de tabac".
Note that Airbus is up 8.5%. EDF is still down 3% at 6.6â,¬, losing 50% over one month.

The European markets are now down (once again)...The cac 40 lost all its gains. For those who don't have stocks, it might be a good time to invest for the middle term. I suggest buying bank stocks and companies in the pharmaceutical sector.
Despite the big fall of the air plane companies, I advise you to avoid them.

I'm going to talk about the US markets. In the current context, what stocks should you buy?
Well, I think you shoud still avoid Tesla. At the current level, Tesla is worth twice the market cap of BMW. Even if the stock can rebound on the short term, it's still expensive (despite a 60% fall from its top...).
In the Dow Jones, I think Intel, Mcdonald's and Pfizer could be interesting. They are defensive stocks with an interesting dividend. Exxon and Boeing have better yields, but dividends could be cut for oil and airplane stocks given the context.

Note that the cac 40 is now up 1,9%. Tesla (+13%) and Mcdonald's (+8%) are soaring. However if you have some Tesla stocks, I recommend selling it.
I still suggest buying bank stocks. Socgen confrmed a dividend of 2.2â,¬ today, it's a yield of 13%.
Note that Natixis is up 10% today, I was recommending it a few days ago. The price target is at 3â,¬.

Yesterday, I was speaking of a target for the cac at 4100 points. Its done, sooner than forecasted, the cac 40 is up 5.85% and the dax 30 is up 6%. I sold some positions on Societe Generale bought yesterday. Ill come back if the markets is going down, since this rebound is a bit artificial. Im not sure this rebound will hold at the end of the day.
The problem is, I still find the US markets slightly expensive, despite the recent correction. The Dow Jones is set to open at 20700 points for the moment.

Natixis is up 10%, the next target is at 2.50e. For Societe Generale, with an EPS 2019 of 3e, I have a long term target at 30e.

Note that I cant write normally since some keys of my keyboard are not responding anymore, like the arrow keys and the numeric keys... Fortunately, they are not the most useful keys. Since the fnac is not selling msi computers anymore, Ill wait. This lenovo is excellent but a bit expensive. The processor seems very good though. I have the impression that the i7 9750f is better than the i7 9750h: https://www.fnac.com/PC-Portable-Lenovo-Legion-Y540-17IRH-17-3-Intel-Core-i7-16-Go-RAM-256-Go-SSD-1-To-SATA-Noir/a14086723/w-4

Note that I advise you to sell this rebound. Macron announced that its probably the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak and further measures of confinement. Another coup de tabac is probable on the markets.

Well, despite the fact that Wall Street is correcting right now (The DJ is currently down 1.1% at 19870 points), the European markets were not sold. The cac 40 finished at +5.01% and the Dax at +3.69%. The bank Natixis was up 31%! - I sold 3000 stocks.
In Europe only the Swiss index and the Stockholm OMX 30 were down (both down 1.8%).
(https://i.ibb.co/hWZHdmv/kn.jpg)

Well, it's another huge slap for the American markets with the Dow Jones losing 4.61%. Coca cola, Disney and 3M lost 10% (I was speaking of another "coup de tabac" - which means bad weather - to come, here it is).

(https://i.ibb.co/pWd6ZFS/dj.jpg)

Note that the Wall Street futures are pointing to another coup de tabac for Monday. The opening of the cac 40 and the dax 30 will be certainly in negative territory.

(https://i.ibb.co/VCmWzZY/WS.jpg)

Today, I am going to talk about the situation in India.


(https://i.ibb.co/QrrMTZC/India.jpg)
A near empty Citiwalk Mall in New Delhi, India, on March 19


India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

Note that the Dax 30 futures just opened and they are indicating that the opening of the German market could look like a butchery tomorrow. For those who do not know the Dax 30, there is where some firms like BMW, Siemens, Daimler or Bayer are listed. The Dow Jones futures are currently losing 820 points.
I will speak tomorrow at the opening of the markets to tell you what to do and explain the situation.

(https://i.ibb.co/DrqNNjS/dax30.jpg)

Note that the cac 40 is losing 4.32% and the Dax 30 4.95%. On the current level, I am buying some stocks Societe Generale. I am not buying Natixis but I still have a price target at 3 euros. On the dax, lufthansa, Siemens and BMW are amongst the biggest losers. In this context, I am still negative for airline companies.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said the coronavirus will inflict greater economic pain than they previously expected as they warned of a record plunge in the U.S. output in the second quarter and a deeper global recession.

(https://i.ibb.co/K7cWHMG/360488056-555x370.jpg)

Morgan Stanley’s U.S. economists led by Ellen Zentner told clients in a report on Sunday that they now see American gross domestic product falling 30.1% in April-June. That will drive up unemployment to average 12.8% over the period, they said.
At Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius’s team said in a report that they now expect a 24% drop in U.S. output in the next quarter.
The dire forecasts from two of Wall Street’s biggest banks reflects the sudden stop that the U.S. and European economies are witnessing following China’s slump at the start of the year.

Such predictions are raising fears of a depression, but Morgan Stanley economists said in a separate report that a sustained contraction should be avoided given the response of fiscal and monetary policy makers. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs anticipate a recovery beginning in the third quarter, although that is subject to risks.
“Economic activity has come to a near standstill in March,” the Morgan Stanley economists said. “As social distancing measures increase in a greater number of areas and as financial conditions tighten further, the negative effects on near-term GDP growth become that much greater.”
In a Bloomberg interview on Sunday, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in GDP.

Note that the Dow Jones is currently losing 820 points. On these levels and if you do not have stocks yet, I think it could be interesting to buy defensive stocks with a medium-term horizon. I was recommending Intel a few days ago at 47$, or mcdonalds. Today, 3M is tumbling 6.3%. With a dividend yield of 4% on these levels, and if the dividend is maintainted, it could be a good purchase.
(https://i.ibb.co/sJxX3q2/Dow.jpg)

Note that there is a rebound in Europe. The cac 40 is up 4.15% and the dax 5.9%. The Wall Street futures are currently up 4.2%.
If you have winning positions, I advise you to sell half of them. Another coup de tabac could take place. I sold 500 societe generale at 14.60â,¬. Fundamentally the stock is pretty cheap, but in this context, it could go back to 13.50â,¬

Note that the cac 40 is now up 5.85%. The resistance at 4140 was broken. It might indicate that prices could go higher.
in this context, Natixis is soaring. It is up 13%. The next target price is 2.80...

(https://i.ibb.co/FKqSRdy/natixis.jpg)

Note that the Dow Jones is currently up 8.8%...
If you have American stocks, I advise you to reduce your positions. This rebound is a bit artificial and the peak of the pandemic has not been reached yet.

(https://i.ibb.co/Jxc20fd/dj.jpg)

The market is very bullish as you can see on the picture. In this context, the cac 40 could go to 4600 points tomorrow.

(https://i.ibb.co/LShZfQ1/DJIA.jpg)

Actually it wasn't that bullish. The Dow Jones lost 700 points in the last 10 minutes of the session...
But I still think stock markets could go higher on the short term with some targets at 4600 points for the cac 40 and 22500 points for the Dow Jones.
A few months ago Trump was talking about a Dow Jones at 36000 points...This target might be jeopardized on the short term by the scourge.

(https://i.ibb.co/gRq9tNZ/DJIA.jpg)

Well, there is still a lot of bearishness in the stock markets. The cac 40 is down 2.55%.
The Wall Street futures are at 20850 points, down 1000 points from yesterday's top.

(https://i.ibb.co/n3JcXxk/cac40.jpg)

Note that I recommend selling Natixis at 3.38â,¬. I sold all my positions in Natixis.
On the short term, there could be another coup de tabac for the bank stocks.

I suggest buying Publicis at 24.8 â,¬ with a price target at 27â,¬. The firm announced the dividend  of 2.30â,¬ was maintained.
I jumped on the bandwagon this morning at 24.30â,¬.

However, on the short term, the correction of the stock markets could proceed. The Dow Jones could go back to 19000 points since it seems the coronavirus is spreading rapidly in the US. Note that the virus took its toll in Iraq and Palestine too.

Note that the Dow Jones is currently up 4.4%, at 22100 points. It might be time to reduce your positions.

Note that the Dow jones is up 4.7% at 22 192 points. On the short therm, the markets seem very bullish, even if it is prudent to reduce the positions. I expect the cac 40 to go to 4650 points and the Dow jones to 23000. After this, we could have another leg down though.

Note there is another storm on the stock markets.

(https://i.ibb.co/9y46MfM/cac40.jpg)

Note that Wall Street slid 410 points tonight.

(https://i.ibb.co/vkNNxmF/ws.jpg)

Note that the cac 40 is currently losing 3.70%.

(https://i.ibb.co/HNGgTyM/cac40.jpg)

Note that the Dow Jones ended lower today. It was up 3.5% at the opening. I shorted the DJ at 23500 points but I wasn't expecting it would close 1000 points below. As a result the futures of the European markets are red. Maybe I will buy back some positions on Societe Generale tomorrow, since I sold some stocks today.
And the coronavirus melodrama is far from over. According to the Boston Consulting group, the confinement could last till June in Europe.

(https://i.ibb.co/0FgdfNd/DJ.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/kBbdd5z/ig.jpg)

Note that the cac 40 is currently tumbling. I reduced some winning positions on SMCP and Société Générale shortly after 9 am and bought 2000 Natixis at 2.20â,¬ with a target at 2.35â,¬. I was recommending Natixis one month ago at 2â,¬ and there has been an extraordinary rally then, since the stock hit 3.85â,¬, before falling back to...1.90â,¬.
I keep some cash in case of another coup de tabac. I'm a bit worried again by the level of the sp 500, back to 2750 points, and on the short term, I don't see a lot of bullishness ahead, but I could be wrong. In the current context, practically 2 thousand Americans are dying each day of Coronavirus, and the pandemic is far from over.

(https://i.ibb.co/bR68GyL/cac40.jpg)

Note that I shorted the S&P 500 at 2780 just before the opening of the market. In my opinion, the rebound of the market could be over soon, at least on the short term, since the S&P 500 is up 25% since its bottom at 2200 points;

Quote from: scarface on April 08, 2020, 12:11 AM
And the coronavirus melodrama is far from over. According to the Boston Consulting group, the confinement could last till June in Europe.

Maybe not over but slowly improving. I saw on the news this morning that Spain and Italy are reporting a drop in new cases and higher survivability. Of course there are people who die, but for every person who dies about 10 survive. These people have immunity. This crisis, like all others, will pass.

Mark my words: before the year is out there will be a vaccine for this thing.

Note that the Dow Jones futures are indicating a probable decline in the market tomorrow.

(https://i.ibb.co/k1qvydK/Dow-Jones.jpg)

As forecasted, the Dow Jones is losing 440 points this Afternoon.
I think the correction could continue, with a first target at 22500 points.

(https://i.ibb.co/s1XmBQW/DJ.jpg)


Note that Macron is going to speak tonight, at 7 pm GMT. France is to extend lockdown again beyond 15 April.
link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tEBQhwCvY4
The confinement will last till 11 May apparently.

Note that the Wall Street futures are negative. On the short term, I see some bearishness indeed.

(https://i.ibb.co/nP1t3Pw/dj.jpg)

A few years ago, between 2014 and 2016, I bought approximately 100 gold coins, some Napoleon 20 francs, at an average price of 220e. Today, these gold coins are worth 330e per coin.
I also bought some American eagle 20$ at 1280e per coin. They are now worth 1850e.
I told some people I was buying gold but those people were generally mocking me. And yet this is probably one of the best investments I have ever made. At this time gold was not going up, and I was wondering if I wasn't making a mistake. I should have bought much more gold actually.
Now I'd like to ask humbert or Vasudev if they would sell it.

(https://i.ibb.co/TH8STk8/napoleon.jpg)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFTAawLH2ps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5d3eR6fL_Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Gzx5GA3sgU

Quote from: scarface on April 24, 2020, 10:37 PM
A few years ago, between 2014 and 2016, I bought approximately 100 gold coins, some Napoleon 20 francs, at an average price of 220e. Today, these gold coins are worth 330e per coin.
I also bought some American eagle 20$ at 1280e per coin. They are now worth 1850e.
I told some people I was buying gold but those people were generally mocking me. And yet this is probably one of the best investments I have ever made. At this time gold was not going up, and I was wondering if I wasn't making a mistake. I should have bought much more gold actually.
Now I'd like to ask humbert or Vasudev if they would sell it.

(https://i.ibb.co/TH8STk8/napoleon.jpg)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFTAawLH2ps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5d3eR6fL_Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Gzx5GA3sgU

I'm actually quite interesting in your long-term trading. I've long been able to flip things for short periods of time for quite some good profit. Especially computer parts and items in games like Counterstrike, which represent real life money, and can even though against the rules be traded for real money. As you just list the item as a gift and send the other person gift money.

It's not at all as much profit, and quite stressful at times if you see an item drop in price due to a patch.

This last CS update, my skins have risen in around 100â,¬ in price, just because I had items that were seen as bad before the patch, but in this patch they're seen as good or decent items. which means that more people buy the m as they gain popularity.

The first time I accidentally flipped items was in Runescape, an MMO where you buy and sell items.
I was anxious if I should buy some high level armor which was worth my entire cashstack. So I put in an offer for roughly 15m coins ingame, and the item was normally going for 19m.
The item bought when I was doing other things, and because I still hadnt decided if it was a good idea for me to use all my money for the item, I put the item up for 21m coins. Then I went to sleep. The next day when I woke up I had made 6 coins million ingame. Which at that time was a lot for someone like me. A good moneymaking method ranges from 400~700k coins per hour of grinding. And doing flipping was a really good method. I had always heard how people did it and made such profits, but they just made it sound so complicated. But in reality it's really simple.
You make profit by getting a good deal on the item, and then selling it at normal or overprice(if lucky).

Since then I started with a self-competition. A bank-standing account, that only flipped items and picked up free items that people dropped on the floor. In around 1 real life month, I got enough from 1 cold coin, to buy a bond for 5million coins. A bond is an item that allows you to access paid to play content. This account was a limited free to play account that only had access to certain items, and had very restricted limits on what it could and could not buy. Finding items that were not restricted was a challenge at first.

I must say; a bit off topic. But Runescape is the game that has taught me the very most of all games I've ever played. It's been a great tool for me to learn English words and be able to understand how some objects and items in real life are produced and what they contain. And how some economics work; you can follow trends of items and how supply and demand works you can really profit a lot. Just like in real life.
Right now PC components are going up in price, and you can make great deals buying peoples things if they havnt realized that the prices have gone up. And then sell it more expensive due to the times we are in.
You have to act fast though as often others will realize that it's a good deal and buy it instantly.

Well, shadow97, I do not know how to say this. Your answer is probably interesting. And it is kind of you to answer. But I don't understand anything about your games. I'm nearly 40, I m not 12 years old.
No matter what you would answer or not though, I already know if I'm going to sell my gold coins or not. They are still in a bank vault located nearby...the bataclan in Paris.


Note that I caught a disease lately. It is not the coronavirus, it is a mycosis. My tongue just became black. I'm being treated for this.

Maybe Ive been a bit tough with shadow.97, even if I don't understand the counterstrike stuff. I was judging something I don't know. After all, maybe Vasudev or panzer24 have counterstrike tokens and they could be interested in his/her message. Therefore I will delete my message later.
As far as gold is concerned, I think I'm going to sell my coins because I think there could be a correction next summer, after the rally that began in April 2019. However, on the long term, gold might still be a good investment.

Quote from: scarface on April 26, 2020, 01:35 PM
Maybe Ive been a bit tough with shadow.97, even if I don't understand the counterstrike stuff. I was judging something I don't know. After all, maybe Vasudev or panzer24 have counterstrike tokens and they could be interested in his/her message. Therefore I will delete my message later.
As far as gold is concerned, I think I'm going to sell my coins because I think there could be a correction next summer, after the rally that began in April 2019. However, on the long term, gold might still be a good investment.

No need at all to delete the messages :) I'm not upset at all about them, if anything it really just shows that we all share this earth but we all got a different understanding of the same things. Or something amongst those lines  ::)

Note that the cac 40 is crumbling today. I'm currently bearish on the sp 500, with a first target at 2840 points. I'm still bearish on the Euro vs the Dollar.
(https://i.ibb.co/Wyrht7Y/cac40.jpg)

Note that the Wall Street futures are now down 240 points.
(https://i.ibb.co/7zMQrkc/dow.jpg)

I think that the sp 500 could go back to 2800 points on the short term as forecasted in the previous message.
I advise you to take some positions on the dsp5, an inverse ETF tracker, like me, if you can buy some European trackers.
Note that I reinforced my position on Societe Generale today, despite the fact that the bank announced big losses.

Note that the S&P 500 is currently dropping nearly 3%.

(https://i.ibb.co/DR1xX7r/sp500.jpg)

Note that the Dow Jones futures are currently losing 250 points.
The futures for the European indexes are very negative, indicating a possible crack tomorrow: -3.9% for the cac40 and -3.4% for the Dax 30.
(https://i.ibb.co/yyZjgfZ/WS.jpg)

Note that the cac 40 is currently losing 3.4%.
On these levels, it might be interesting to buy French stocks. However, I still think that the American stocks are too expensive. The s&p 500 futures are now showing 2795 points.

(https://i.ibb.co/py3499y/cac.jpg)

Note that I bought some short positions on the S&P 500: 400 dsp5 at 23.5â,¬.
I sold some Société Générale yesterday at 13.30â,¬ and today at 14.78â,¬. I think there could be a correction on the short term.

Today, I earnt 2200â,¬ with Societe Generale.
Here is Societe Generale today's session. If you click on the picture below you can enlarge it and as you can see, the stock lost more than 7% and the stock price collapsed a few minutes after the opening of the stock market.
Knowing that I wasn't short selling the stock, and that I didn't use put nor call options, try to guess how I could earn money with such a "bad  configuration". I will tell you tomorrow.

(https://i.ibb.co/5Kdh7Vw/GLE.jpg)

Today, the cac 40 is down 2.68% and the s&p futures are down 2%.
In this context, I sold some s&p 500 short positions. I earnt 160â,¬ this morning. And I reinforced my position on Societe Generale (I bought 600 shares at 15â,¬ this morning).
Note that I'm expecting the market to keep going down on the short term and I still have inverse ETF on the s&p 500.


(https://i.ibb.co/yFLRx9Q/cac40.jpg)




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FK8--sO6zKA
(https://i.ibb.co/vwM2Tcb/baboon2.jpg)

Note that the s&p 500 futures is now down 2.65%. I sold more bearish positions on the sp500. It's pretty good since it was a losing position. The cac 40 is now dropping 3.23%. Note that I put a limit order at 14.70 for 300 more shares of Société Générale.

Tonight, I'm going to talk about the crack of the s&p 500 that took place over the last few hours and why the market is likely to keep going down.
(https://i.ibb.co/fDkNTSn/sp500.jpg)

I made a mistake since I bought shares today and I sold some shorts on the s&p 500.
shadow.97 must be wondering why there is mr baboon if I made a wrong investment. It's because I was aware that a big correction would be probable after the s&p 500 rally. Therefore I kept half of my short positions. I'm expecting further gains soon.


(https://i.ibb.co/vwM2Tcb/baboon2.jpg)

Note that there is a huge volatility today on the stock market.
This morning the cac 40 was down 1% and it is now up 1.5%.
Trump blamed the Fed for yesterday's collapse of the s&p 500.

In this context I sold all my sp500 shorts this morning. I bought 600 more shares of Socgen at the opening of the market at 14â,¬ and I sold them at 14.70. I bought 300 shares yesterday and I sold them at 15.08â,¬. 360â,¬ earnt today, 170â,¬ yesterday and 3000â,¬ earnt this week. This is exceptional. However I haven't told you yet how I earnt 2200â,¬ and you are going to notice that things are not that easy when you are taking into account the unrealized losses.

Note that the s&p 500 is up 2.4% and the Dow Jones is up 2.9%. Therefore, I bought back some bearish positions. After a sharp run-up for U.S. stocks, rising tensions between Trump and Kim Jong Un could spark a round of near-term consolidation. Note that I sold 600 extra Societe Generale Stocks at 15.35â,¬, making further gains this week. Since I'm forecasting a correction, I'm buying back Societe Generale at the limit order of 14.50â,¬.

Note 2: I'm probably going to present another recipe tonight.

Note 3: If I can, I'm going to try to make another smaller repack among those available on the forum.

Note that the s&p 500 just turned negative, it lost 2,4% since my previous message, half an hour ago.
Yesterday, growing fears of a surge in coronavirus infections sent the stock market tumbling, pulling the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1,800 points for its worst day since March. In this context the cac 40 lost all its gains.
Another correction could take place, be careful.

Note that there is currently another little correction on the s&p 500, down 0.4%. I would not be surprised if it was down 2% at the closing. The s&p 500 is close to its all time highs while there are many economic uncertainties.

The Dow Jones was finally up 1.9% on Friday. However, I was probably right when I told you to be careful. In the current context, we will have to deal with uncertain economic conditions and financial markets turmoil.
And tomorrow's session could be a bit restless: the Dow Jones futures are currently losing 400 points. If I decide to take some positions, I'll tell you that tomorrow.

(https://i.ibb.co/xmrMhdC/WS.jpg)

Note that the Dow Jones futures are now losing more than 900 points. The Cac 40 and the Dax are crumbling at the opening, losing respectively 2.6 and 2.8%.
Note that I bought some Societe Generale at the opening of the markets.

Note that I already sold Societe Generale at 14.3â,¬ and made gains.  I already have a significant position with a higher price, I'm not taking risks. I expect more bearishness on the short term and perhaps a cac 40 at 4600 points. If new opportunities arise, I will be back.

Tonight, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock market.


The Dow Jones is dropping more than 500 points as coronavirus resurgence concerns grow.
(https://i.ibb.co/GcSTpF9/DOW.jpg)

Note that Tech giant Wirecard totally collapsed after German accounts scandal.
German magazine Der Spiegel reported that Japanese investor SoftBank was planning to sue Wirecard’s long-time auditor EY over the scandal.
Wirecard, which disclosed a $2.1 billion hole in its books, is the first member of the DAX stock index to go bust, barely two years after winning a spot among Germany’s top 30 listed companies.
(https://i.ibb.co/ZWKHC09/wirecard.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock market.

There is currently a steep correction since the Dow Jones is down 1.8%. I'm afraid Trump might have said something wrong.
In this context, the cac 40 is down 1.02%. Note that I reinforced my position on Société Générale, even if I'm staying bearish for the overall equity markets.
Note that I advise against buying Tesla and Amazon. Those 2 stocks are just too expensive.
(https://i.ibb.co/wSyyV5W/cac40.jpg)


I'd be glad to discuss this with sb on the forum, even if you are not buying stocks. Are you bullish? Are you bearish? You can tell us what you think.

(https://www.fedsmith.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/bull-bear-market.jpg)

Tonight I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

Apparently, it is going to be a bloodbath tomorrow on the Euopean markets, since Wall Street lost all its gains. I was right to sell some Societe Generale stocks this morning, at the opening of the markets (1000 stocks,, 500 at 14.45â,¬ and 500 at 14.49â,¬) and I bought some s&p 500 shorts even though I should have waited a bit more (1000 dsp5 at 19.90â,¬).
Note that Tesla was up 12% at the opening. It is now down 3%!
Note I'm buying Societe Generale at 14.80 and 14.60â,¬ (I still have 2800 stocks) and I have a first target for the s&p 500 at 3100 points.
I'm still bearish for the â,¬/$ with a target a 1.10 and I'm bullish on gold with a target at 1900$ per ounce.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIQt5ZL-lE4
(https://i.ibb.co/n0JDpp9/remix.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the financial markets.

The Dax and the cac 40 are down this morning, since the Nasdaq was off 2.1%, while the S&P 500 finished down 0.9% yesterday.
I sold some short positions, and yet I'm not buying anything for the moment, since I don't see a lot of bullishness ahead.
(https://i.ibb.co/ccGszGv/cac40.jpg)

What's more, despite yesterday's correction on the Nasdaq, some stocks like Amazon or Tesla are probably still expensive.
Actually, to determine the price of stocks, we can use two approaches, and investors can view today's stock markets as both expensive AND cheap.
Many analysts turn to Shiller PE which analyzes the price-to-earnings ratio of all companies that comprise a stock market index. The higher the Shiller PE, the more overvalued a stock market index appears to be. Currently the Shiller PE ratio of the S&P 500 is high â€" in fact, only during the tech bubble in 2000 has the Shiller PE been higher than it is today. This suggests that the North American markets are overvalued and that returns over the next 20 years will be underwhelming.
Another way to assess a stock market's valuation is by analyzing the bond yield versus the stock market's earning yield ratio. Currently bond yields are at historic lows which makes the stock market's earning yield look attractive. Based on this formula, in contrast to the Shiller PE, stock prices appear cheaper today than they were a decade ago.

The stock market is currently disconnected, while many tech companies are up substantially year to date (Apple â€" 30 per cent, Microsoft â€" 35 per cent, Amazon â€" 66 per cent, Netflix â€" 55 per cent), other segments, such as restaurants, travel and hospitality, are down significantly.

We are also seeing the list of high-profile bankruptcies grow â€" just this week Brooks Brothers and DavidsTea were unfortunately added to the list. It's a stock picker's market, but investors need to be prepared for surprises.
(https://i.ibb.co/SQXbrVv/store-closed-toronto-flooding.jpg)
A Brooks Brothers store in Toronto closed in 2018 due to flooding, but this week the 200-year-old company filed for bankruptcy protection in the U.S.

I read yesterday that Bofa's target for the s&p 500 is at 2900 points for the end of the year. We might be in a recession and the economy is going to struggle for at least the remainder of 2020, but that doesn't mean the stock market won't do well even if we can be reasonably bearish in the medium term. An error that many people make is assuming that the economy and the stock market are one in the same, but they are not, indeed.

There are some tailwinds, the biggest being the trillions of dollars being printed by the global central banks â€" much of which is or will be finding its way into the stock markets. Also, due to historically low interest rates, the aforementioned $5 trillion sitting in cash is earning basically nothing. It won't stay there very long, as we are already seeing signs that some of that cash is being deployed into the stock markets or buying hard assets such as gold. Should I advise you to buy something, I would tell you to buy gold in the current context, still regarded as the safest of assets, despite the recent surge in gold prices.

(https://i.ibb.co/D8rfRyW/pieces-dor-napoleon-20-francs-1858.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

The cac 40 is up 1.2% at 5155 points and the Dax is up 1.75% at 13280 points. The S&p 500 futures are up 0.70% at 3268 points.
After the recent rally, it turns out that stocks are expensive, at least it is the case on the American market. Therefore, I advise you to sell stocks and take profit.

Well, This morning, at roughly 1.30 pm gmt, I told you to sell stocks. The European markets were euphoric after EU summit reached "historic deal" to curb the recession in Europe.
I told you to sell stocks because that's what I did: I sold some Societe Generale at 16.15â,¬ and I bought back the position at 15.70â,¬. Since I sold 2800 stocks, It turned out to be a profitable trade. I reinforced my short positions on the s&p 500 at 3260 points too.

So what's going to happen now? I see some bearishness on the markets because the US equity market is pretty expensive. Today, the GAFAM ended lower and I wouldn't be surprised of a correction pretty soon. I'm not at ease with Amazon at 3200$ or Tesla at 1500$ or even Apple near 400$. I expect the coronavirus pandemic to have a negative effect on the American economy over the next few months.
Note that the precious metals were trading higher today: Silver ended up the session up 5% while Gold reached an all-time high. I'm still bullish for the precious metals sector as sentiment remains “buoyant". I think Silver price can easily reach 25$ per ounce.

(https://i.ibb.co/MRnZ4BK/cac40.jpg)


Note that I bought a bottle of prestigious wine tonight. And I will present another recipe tomorrow. Since face masks have become mandatory in France in public places today, due to a recent "surge" of the coronavirus pandemic, you now look like a surgeon everywhere you go. I couldn't help laughing in the supermarket tonight since I wasn't using masks before. With everyone wearing a mask, it reminded me of primetime series Emergency Heights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNEadYEZb9M

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

The European markets are down (again) today: the cac 40 is down 0.74% and the Dax is down 0.34%.
Precious metals have been a glittering investment, but today gold and silver fall back as precious metals rally loses some steam. This morning, silver traded above 26$, but it is now at 23.6$ per ounce.

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock market.

Global markets tumbled on Monday, with European stocks falling the most since July as investors worried about tighter virus restrictions and a report detailing suspicious transactions at international banks.

S&P 500 equity futures sank 1.8%, indicating U.S. stocks are poised to extend three weeks of losses. Political tensions also making traders nervous as Republicans and Democrats prepare to fight over who will be the next Supreme Court justice. Treasuries rose and the dollar strengthened.
In France equities are down too, as the cac 40 is dropping 3.35%.

Airlines and travel companies led losses in the Europe Stoxx 600 Index.
Nikola Corp. plunged 36% in U.S. pre-market trading. The electric-vehicle startup that recently partnered with General Motors Co. said its founder stepped down as executive chairman.

(https://i.ibb.co/G22WGrY/cac40.jpg)

I hope Humbert, little Vasudev and the users of the forum are fine.
The stock markets are up today. For how long?
I sold some Société générale and bought some bearish positions on the sp500.

Note that new comics could be available soon.

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets. The cac 40 is dropping 1.88%.
Yesterday, Macron ordered nighttime curfew as coronavirus infections rose.
The s&p 500 is expected to open lower too.

https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

-2.45% for the cac!
I think you should not hurry to buy, the downturn in the financial markets is not over.

Tonight, the Dow Jones is dropping more than 350 points. Is there going to be another crash?
Note that I'm still short on the s&p 500.
(https://i.ibb.co/dKHqRWG/dj.png)


Thami kabbaj explains in this video to be prepared for another downturn in the stock markets (in French).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twFH5QOhx80

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

The dow Jones futures are crumbling today. Investors must be forecasting a defeat of Trump.
In this uncertain environment, I advise you to be careful.

(https://i.ibb.co/zND7SDW/WS.jpg)

Well, this morning I told you to be careful with the stock markets.
Tonight, the Dow Jones is dropping practically 800 points. This is a correction and it's probably not over.

Covid-19 cases are spiking again in the U.S., as well as in Europe. Meantime, a coronavirus stimulus deal looks less likely before the Nov. 4 election, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appear to be at an impasse.

American Express, down 4% in twice normal trade, dropped below its 50-day line. The credit card giant on Friday reported mixed Q3 results as consumers curb travel, restaurant and entertainment spending during the pandemic.

Boeing lost 3.6% after China announced sanctions on Boeing, Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon Technologies (RTX) on Monday.

(https://i.ibb.co/Qdz8Z8T/WS2.jpg)

Tonight, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.
There is currently a steep correction at Wall Street. The Dow Jones is dropping almost 800 points on mounting concerns over the coronavirus and the global economic recovery.
The U.S. indexes took their cues from the European market benchmarks. The German Dax index dropped 4.2% to its lowest level since late May. The French CAC 40 slid 3.4%. The FTSE 100 in London closed 2.6% lower.
Investors’ hopes that the COVID pandemic would not force further stringent mitigations measures and/or potential wholesale lockdowns that would push global economies back into ‘low-consumption mode’ appear to be coming under challenge.

The recent uptick in Covid cases has led some countries to reinstate certain social distancing measures. In the U.S., the state of Illinois has ordered Chicago to shut down indoor dining. In Europe, German officials agreed to a four-week partial lockdown. The French government was also expected to impose new restrictions to stem the recent coronavirus increase.

(https://i.ibb.co/0fMsCwr/DJ.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

The cac 40 is up 1% this morning.
Société Générale announced strong results. the stock is up 5%. Note that I advise you to reduce your position after the recent rally of the stock, even if it can go much higher. This is what I did (I sold 1000 stocks this morning, and I made a significant capital gain, but I keep cash if it goes down and if it goes above 15â,¬ I will keep selling).

(https://i.ibb.co/D4KYpYq/gle.jpg)

The Dow Jones futures were down 300 points yesterday morning. I took this opportunity to sell some shorts positions bought the day before. It was a good hunch.
Finally, The Dow Jones gained 370 points or 1.34% yesterday. and the Dow Jones futures are still up 200 points today. There is euphoria because the dictatorship of Trump will be over soon (or not, since Trump vowed to take election fight to the US Supreme Court).
I think all this is a bit artificial and I don't think that the equity markets measure the consequences of the election of Biden yet. Compared to Trump, he's a communist, and he will impose more regulations. That's why I think it's wise to reduce your equity positions now.

Note that I found something in my pocket. If Maher or humbert need a donation, they can contact me. I know it won't be enough to buy a flat in Miami, but with several banknotes like this one, one can buy a computer.
(https://i.ibb.co/ky6tbLx/banknote.jpg)

Tonight, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the markets.

It seems there is a correction on the Dow Jones tonight, after the "Covid vaccine rally".
I think there is a significant downside potentiel on these levels, it might still be time to take profits.
I sold some stocks a bit too early on Tuesday and decided to buy some short positions on the s&p 500.


(https://i.ibb.co/18JcNWq/DJ.jpg)

Apparently, there is the beginning of krack on the financial markets.
It's due to the new mutant virus strain.

(https://i.ibb.co/d7MyFSY/cac40.jpg)

Been transfering money between my accounts. A bit sad to see that i missed the high of
1 euro = 11.20 sek.
Now it is more like
1 euro = 10.10 sek.

When transferring a lot of money, this is a big difference. Unsure if I should hold for a few more months, or if i should pull the trigger and accept the current price.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 22, 2020, 12:57 AM
Been transfering money between my accounts. A bit sad to see that i missed the high of
1 euro = 11.20 sek.
Now it is more like
1 euro = 10.10 sek.

I just looked at a currency exchange app on my phone and it appears the Euro is getting stronger. Even against the US dollar it went up by about 10¢. Unfortunately currency exchange is like that. You'd have to hire a fortuneteller to predict whether currencies are going up or down.

Hey Shadow, I'm curious about something. You told us you had to get an Irish tax number to pay taxes there. What about Sweden? From what I've been hearing Swedish citizens are heavily taxed on just about everything. Do they also get a share of your salary too?

Quote from: humbert on December 22, 2020, 05:57 AM

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 22, 2020, 12:57 AM
Been transfering money between my accounts. A bit sad to see that i missed the high of
1 euro = 11.20 sek.
Now it is more like
1 euro = 10.10 sek.

I just looked at a currency exchange app on my phone and it appears the Euro is getting stronger. Even against the US dollar it went up by about 10¢. Unfortunately currency exchange is like that. You'd have to hire a fortuneteller to predict whether currencies are going up or down.

Hey Shadow, I'm curious about something. You told us you had to get an Irish tax number to pay taxes there. What about Sweden? From what I've been hearing Swedish citizens are heavily taxed on just about everything. Do they also get a share of your salary too?

No, they dont get anything from my salary, they do however take a share of the profits of my funds every year.
In EU you only pay tax on the salary in the country you earn it and you are located. If I were to buy an item from an E-store located in Germany, I still have to pay full Irish VAT, and 0% german VAT.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 23, 2020, 08:33 AM
No, they dont get anything from my salary, they do however take a share of the profits of my funds every year.
In EU you only pay tax on the salary in the country you earn it and you are located. If I were to buy an item from an E-store located in Germany, I still have to pay full Irish VAT, and 0% german VAT.

By VAT I'm assuming you mean what we call "sales tax". Here in San Antonio when we buy anything other than food or medicine, we pay 8¼% sales tax. That's 6¼% for the state of Texas and 2% for the city of San Antonio. In every state/city it's different. So when you say VAT is this what you mean? If so, how much is Irish sales tax and are food and medicine exempt?

Quote from: humbert on December 26, 2020, 04:43 AM

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 23, 2020, 08:33 AM
No, they dont get anything from my salary, they do however take a share of the profits of my funds every year.
In EU you only pay tax on the salary in the country you earn it and you are located. If I were to buy an item from an E-store located in Germany, I still have to pay full Irish VAT, and 0% german VAT.

By VAT I'm assuming you mean what we call "sales tax". Here in San Antonio when we buy anything other than food or medicine, we pay 8¼% sales tax. That's 6¼% for the state of Texas and 2% for the city of San Antonio. In every state/city it's different. So when you say VAT is this what you mean? If so, how much is Irish sales tax and are food and medicine exempt?

I thought you had VAT, after a quick google, VAT does not exist in the US.
Vat here is Value added tax, in some countries it is galled Goods and services Tax. (GST)
According to wikipedia, the approximate equivilant in the US would be 'Sales and use tax'. Except puerto rico, which has both VAT and Sales and use tax.


I know food is exempt from VAT Ireland. Sugar has a separate tax, known as 'Sugar tax'.
The tax on electronics in ireland is I think 21%.'
Dont know the rates for medicine. In sweden you get it almost for free once you pay like $150~ for approved medicine. Might be wrong. Never had expensive medicine.

The VAT rates I remember in sweden are:
6% food at resturaunt, taxi, airplane,
12% for food in store,staying at a hotel, and artists selling their own art.
25% for electronics, and basically everything else, general tax

But in sweden we also pay additional tax/fees that is added ontop of this for some items, such as storage devices.
"Private copy tax"
(10 sek = 1.21 usd, 10 sek = 0.98 eur)

Phone storage
4.38 SEK per gigabyte, no price cap. (A phone with 512gb storage costs 2245SEK/$271/â,¬220 extra. )

Harddrive/SSD for computer
1.25 SEK per gigabyte, capped at 100SEK.(12usd, 9.8 euro)
CD-R
0.75 SEK per disk.
DVD -r/+r double layer (8gb total)
6 SEK per disk.

This fee, does luckily not exist in Ireland.
Making phones and harddrives much cheaper here.

I read your response and looked and briefly looked at it in Wiki. The difference I'm seeing is that the sales tax that exists in the USA is a flat tax which is charged irrespective of what the item is. For me, buying a car, a restaurant meal or anything other than food or medicine will cost me an additional 8¼% regardless of what it is. VAT's charge you by the item or what's in it, hence electronics pay more than restaurants. Honestly I had no idea this sort of thing even existed.

Another thing that had me confused is that in many places (e.g. Mexico) when you buy something they just tell you the amount in MXN but they don't add anything on top of that. I was under the impression Mexico had no sales tax (or VAT). As it turns out, the VAT is included in the price. The same logic applies in Puerto Rico. That's not the case here. The 8¼% is always listed as a separate item on the ticket and is never part of the original price. In Canada it's more confusing. When I visited Calgary some time ago, they charged an additional 7% GST (General Sales Tax) which goes to the federal government in Ottawa. The province of Alberta had no sales tax at the time. No mention of VAT anywhere.  :(  BTW, in the USA all sales tax is for the state and local government. There is no federal sales tax.

Quote from: humbert on December 28, 2020, 05:53 AM
I read your response and looked and briefly looked at it in Wiki. The difference I'm seeing is that the sales tax that exists in the USA is a flat tax which is charged irrespective of what the item is. For me, buying a car, a restaurant meal or anything other than food or medicine will cost me an additional 8¼% regardless of what it is. VAT's charge you by the item or what's in it, hence electronics pay more than restaurants. Honestly I had no idea this sort of thing even existed.

Another thing that had me confused is that in many places (e.g. Mexico) when you buy something they just tell you the amount in MXN but they don't add anything on top of that. I was under the impression Mexico had no sales tax (or VAT). As it turns out, the VAT is included in the price. The same logic applies in Puerto Rico. That's not the case here. The 8¼% is always listed as a separate item on the ticket and is never part of the original price. In Canada it's more confusing. When I visited Calgary some time ago, they charged an additional 7% GST (General Sales Tax) which goes to the federal government in Ottawa. The province of Alberta had no sales tax at the time. No mention of VAT anywhere.  :(  BTW, in the USA all sales tax is for the state and local government. There is no federal sales tax.

I still dont understand how people would know the prices of items until checkout if it didnt include VAT.
If you are a business VAT is usually not included in price, or you can deduct the VAT. As to my understanding, they are exempt.
I dont know. Taxes are a mess.. All I know is that I will probably have a nice tax return the coming two months. Expecting â,¬1000~4000 due to emergency tax when I arrived in ireland (40% salary got taxed by my company) before i got the tax papers sorted.
Taxes are less fun to do in Ireland than in Sweden. I'll probably just hire a tax broker to fix it for me.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 28, 2020, 06:14 AM
I still dont understand how people would know the prices of items until checkout if it didnt include VAT.

Now it makes sense. I understand why VAT is included in the price. If there are different taxes for different items you'd go absolutely crazy trying to figure out the amount that has to be paid. This is not a problem when it's a flat tax like it is here.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 28, 2020, 06:14 AM
If you are a business VAT is usually not included in price, or you can deduct the VAT. As to my understanding, they are exempt.

That's how it was when I was working. Many companies who bought from us were issued a tax exemption number and paid no tax when buying from us. The reason is that these people resell or export the item. If it were not for the exemption then tax would be paid as many as 10 times over on the same item. Export is exempt because buyers live outside the state and therefore don't use its services, hence no tax.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on December 28, 2020, 06:14 AM
I dont know. Taxes are a mess.. All I know is that I will probably have a nice tax return the coming two months. Expecting â,¬1000~4000 due to emergency tax when I arrived in ireland (40% salary got taxed by my company) before i got the tax papers sorted.
Taxes are less fun to do in Ireland than in Sweden. I'll probably just hire a tax broker to fix it for me.

The Irish government is returning an emergency tax you were charged?

With respect to doing taxes, here many people can go online and have their taxes done via a web site that does that sort of thing. All you do is input the data and their computer does the rest. I'd guess a similar service is available in Europe. Naturally people who makes lots of money and have plenty of assets usually have to pay a CPA (Certified Public Accountant) to do their taxes. They normally charge by complexity.

Tonight, I'm going to talk about the Apple stock.
And I'm going to show you what I think is a bubble.

Look at the chart below.
(https://i.ibb.co/CB8KN5T/apple.jpg)

In mid 2018, the Apple stock was trading between 190 and 200$ per share. Since there has been a split, it is the equivalent of 48$ per share. Now the stock is trading at 132$ per share.
aa1234779, humbert and Maher must be thinking that it's because Apple is making large profits and it's probably true. And yet, since 2018, revenues, as well as profits, are stagnating.
In fact, the price earnings ratio has been multiplied by 2.8.
(https://i.ibb.co/jGwx4Z7/apple-revenue-trend.png)

As you can see below, Apple’s stock price appreciated at a much faster growth rate than its underlying free cash flow on a rolling twelve-month, forward-looking basis. The stock price is way ahead of its fundamentals. Apple is just one the many poster children for the manic speculation and excess in today stock market at large. Stocks like Microsoft, Tesla, and Netflix show similar looking disconnect.
(https://i.ibb.co/tYwzSsp/apple2.png)

Lately, we have seen that Bitcoin lost half of its value in 15 days.
But this fall is nothing compared to the collapse of the solutions 30 share.

The day after the publication of uncertified accounts and after two weeks of price suspension, the Solutions 30 share fell to less than 4 euros on the Paris Stock Exchange against 10 euros previously, and the listing was constantly being interrupted in because of the rush of sellers.
The company specializing in the installation of electricity meters and fiber networks, accused of fraud and money laundering by an American fund that has bet on the decline in the share since 2019, is sinking into a maelstrom that does not please its shareholders.

Solutions 30 had requested the suspension of its title on May 10 from the stock market operator Euronext. The action was then displayed at 10.38 euros. Despite the absence of certified accounts, she had requested the return of the listing on Monday.
But since the opening, the stock of the company â€" which had joined the SBF 120 in September last year â€" has not been able to fully resume its listing, under the effect of massive sales which kept activating suspensions. mechanical, followed by very brief repeats. On Monday 24 May, the share lost around 74% of its value at 2.7 euros.

(https://i.ibb.co/3FRgB3Q/solutions30.jpg)

I continue to believe that the stock market is a huge racket where the insiders at the top make all the money at the expense of those who continue to believe they can somehow make money. This or at the very least an institution that's not much different than gambling in a casino. Either way the odds are stacked against you.

While certainly we are all free to do with our money as we wish, personally I under absolutely no circumstances would invest a single cent in the stock market.

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

Due to the Covid crisis, the money printing and the fiscal policies in the USA and in Europe, we have seen soaring stock markets. However, the important indicators of the overall economic health are not so good in the world and particularly in China. Because of the uncertainty, the risks could be skewed to the downside. This morning the cac 40 lost 1% after the inflation data in Germany. For those who have Bitcoins or other "speculative assets", be careful.

(https://i.ibb.co/DtX80S1/cac40.jpg)

Note that a financial crack is underway because a new variant of the Covid 19 was discovered in South Africa.

Quote from: scarface on November 26, 2021, 01:49 PM
Note that a financial crack is underway because a new variant of the Covid 19 was discovered in South Africa.

They're responding to the Omicron variant much faster than delta or any others. I don't think it'll go too far.

Note that a stock market crack is currently underway due to the high price of oil, the inflation and the invasion of Ukraine decided by Putin.

Quote from: scarface on February 14, 2022, 10:35 AM
Note that a stock market crack is currently underway due to the high price of oil, the inflation and the invasion of Ukraine decided by Putin.

I don't think Putin will go through with it. Ukrainians are ready to fight. It's one thing to overwhelm Ukraine's military, but quite another to occupy the country. Add to this he'll encounter the wrath of NATO and the west, plus the fact that there are many people inside Russia opposed to the invasion.

Quote from: humbert on February 15, 2022, 05:46 AM

Quote from: scarface on February 14, 2022, 10:35 AM
Note that a stock market crack is currently underway due to the high price of oil, the inflation and the invasion of Ukraine decided by Putin.

I don't think Putin will go through with it. Ukrainians are ready to fight. It's one thing to overwhelm Ukraine's military, but quite another to occupy the country. Add to this he'll encounter the wrath of NATO and the west, plus the fact that there are many people inside Russia opposed to the invasion.

I believe Donetsk and Luhansk will be captured in one way or another by Russia. I dont really have any sources, just what I believe.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on February 17, 2022, 07:01 AM
I believe Donetsk and Luhansk will be captured in one way or another by Russia. I dont really have any sources, just what I believe.

It's my understanding Donetsk and Luhansk have a high number of Russians living there and is all but occupied, albeit not officially.

Quote from: humbert on February 18, 2022, 05:22 AM

Quote from: Shadow.97 on February 17, 2022, 07:01 AM
I believe Donetsk and Luhansk will be captured in one way or another by Russia. I dont really have any sources, just what I believe.

It's my understanding Donetsk and Luhansk have a high number of Russians living there and is all but occupied, albeit not officially.

... I feel like my belief came true.  ::) Maybe I should start selling future predictions for money?

Quote from: Shadow.97 on February 23, 2022, 06:57 AM
... I feel like my belief came true.  ::) Maybe I should start selling future predictions for money?

Kudos to you! I'll tell you one thing: you're a better man than I am (seriously!).

Note that a stock market crash could be underway: Poutine asked Ukraine to surrender: the Russian soldiers are ready for an invasion. Apparently some explosions were heard in the region of Kiev.
Following this announcement, the Dow Jones Futures are losing nearly 1000 points and the Cac 40 is down 250 points in premarket stock trading.

Invasion started. Looks like it'd be more destructive for Russia than for Ukraine. Because:
1) All banking system will be vulnerable - we'll get a lot of troubles with payments and transactions even in Russia.
2) Russian economy will fall "to the center of Earth" - since morning already we have fall of prices of biggest russian companies on markets at about 75%, and RUR/USD ratio grown about 1/3 in a few hours. That means that for ordinary peoples all prices in stores will rise.
3) Probably, all modern electronics will be unaccessible for years.
4) Our relatives in Ukraine are vulnerable. Our army strikes very precisely, but, you know, all is possible in a war.
All is bad, very bad.

Update: probably, we'll get a lot of troubles in IT. Stock prices of biggest russian IT companies falls insanely, also, there is rumors that Apple wanted to deny access to it's services for all developers from Russia. I.e., while Putin said in his speeches that we fight to save the greatness of Russia, we got diametrically opposed effect. IT was one of most powerful industry branches in Russia, but now it'll be going to depression. Grandfather (that's how we call now Putin), as expected, know nothing about how things is going in modern tech, and Western countries winnig the informational and economical war now.

Daniil: It's so nice to have you back. We welcome your valued input on this subject. If anybody knows about this and can give us accurate information, it's you.

I read an article today saying that Putin made the same mistake as Tsar Nicholas I. Basically it says that the Tsar started a war to regain the "greatness of Russia" and the whole thing backfired.

I also heard that winning the war against Ukraine will be the easy part. That hard part will be staying there. It's a little like what happened to all foreign armies that have tried to occupy Afghanistan.

I also read that there have been anti-war protest in nearly 47 Russian cities, and all protest have been met with brutal police repression. Clearly the people are very upset.

You are the expert here. What is your opinion regarding these articles?

While I have you on the line, let me ask you this: What exactly is Putin's obsession with NATO? NATO is a product of the cold war and was formed precisely to target the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union no longer exists and I see no reason the Russian Federation should be seen as an enemy. Moreover, there is no possibility of another Operation Barbarrosa. The West is not Nazi Germany and has no interest in such a thing. Even so, the existence of nuclear weapons makes such a thing impossible. I even believe that if somehow Alexei Navalny became president, he's probably have Russia join NATO.

Quote from: humbert on February 25, 2022, 04:55 AM
I read an article today saying that Putin made the same mistake as Tsar Nicholas I. Basically it says that the Tsar started a war to regain the "greatness of Russia" and the whole thing backfired.

What war was mentioned in that article? I can't remember from school course of history, that Nicolas I started wars to regain greatness of Russia. Maybe that was about Nicolas II?

Quote from: humbert on February 25, 2022, 04:55 AM
I also heard that winning the war against Ukraine will be the easy part. That hard part will be staying there. It's a little like what happened to all foreign armies that have tried to occupy Afghanistan.

Probably that's not true. Well, russian army is "not so foreign" for Ukraine. Most of us - more of this, most of that guys in invasion forces - have a relatives in Ukraine. You can see yourself, that yesterday it's almost no counterattacks at Ukraine, and almost no casualities from both sides (we lost about 35 men, Ukraine lost about 137, and about 330 men is injured). That's not a war.
Moreover, I think that things are even more difficult. Most of ukrainian business elite are tightly linked to russian business elite (because they learned in the same soviet universities, serviced in the same units of soviet army, and caged in the same prisons). So, when Putin found a casus belli, they probably were warned, and probably got an offer like if they will calmly integrating in russian economy and will not interfere to remove the unwanted for Russia part of ukrainian government, they will have their businesses untouched. So they just betrayed other part of ukrainian elite, and, when invasion will be finished, will become new puppet government of Ukraine.

Quote from: humbert on February 25, 2022, 04:55 AM
I also read that there have been anti-war protest in nearly 47 Russian cities, and all protest have been met with brutal police repression. Clearly the people are very upset.

Yes, there was some protests. But I don't support them. It's sad that people are now arrested, but in such hard situation as today, it's a bad time to protest. The opposition must been more active much, much earlier (in that case Russia even may been avoid  invasion to Ukraine)

Quote from: humbert on February 25, 2022, 04:55 AM
While I have you on the line, let me ask you this: What exactly is Putin's obsession with NATO? NATO is a product of the cold war and was formed precisely to target the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union no longer exists and I see no reason the Russian Federation should be seen as an enemy. Moreover, there is no possibility of another Operation Barbarrosa. The West is not Nazi Germany and has no interest in such a thing. Even so, the existence of nuclear weapons makes such a thing impossible. I even believe that if somehow Alexei Navalny became president, he's probably have Russia join NATO.

That's not an obsession. NATO was built as a military alliance (an instrument of collective defence!) against Soviet Union. When US won the Cold War, and USSR fallen, NATO must been disbanded by itself (trouble doesn't exist anymore, so an instrument is useless). But that wasn't done! Why? Well, probably because NATO is a good political instrument of US to make a pressure to unwanted political regimes. Also, strange, that you don't know, but Russia led the negotiations with NATO to become it's member! That was at early 2000-s (like at 2001, 20 years ago!), and Putin was an initiator of this process. I was about 15 y.o. that time, and I remember that in news on TV Putin himself told that he speak with Clinton about this! I remember it well, because that was a good news at that time. Well, to become part of NATO was a cool idea!

Also, Clinton was supported that idea! But nothing moved far from this, somewhere in US government offices project was stuck.

So, why that all? Maybe, some of corrupted US business elite wanted to have an "outside enemy" to plunder military budgets? Or maybe US, lost in populist internal politics about that BLM, SJW and financial sphere, wanted to fix the troubles (caused by a greed and ineptitude of some US businessmans and politics) by raising panics (based on propaganda about "evil other countries") and escalating military conflicts?
Take a look! I'm an aerospace enthusiast, that's a good area to see the examples of american problems. What spacecraft built US at last 30 years (the country which was most powerfull in aerospace industry)? There is NO spaceships! Musk and SpaceX we don't count, because he is invader at US space market, same as other small players like Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin. But Boeing, Lockheed, Northrop-Grumman, Martin-Marietta - all this corporations, which built Shuttle, Apollo, Saturn 5? They didn't built ANYTHING. In 30 years after Shuttle they not even finished Orion and SLS, and they spent billions of US dollars... for nothing! Where is all this money? In military projects? No, US didn't made any new aerospace weapons in last 20 years. In infrastructure? No, most of industry are moved from US to China. As a result, US, once been a science and technological leader of a planet, today are beaten by China, Japan and Southern Korea, and NASA was for many years forced to bought old rocket engines from Russia and invest in SpaceX, a company founded by guy from SAR, to found a way to transport peoples to orbit without using rusty russian spacecrafts! That isn't normal for US, don't you think?

About "new operation Barbarossa" - oh, yes, West doesn't interested at invasion to Russia. But looks like that some irresponsible people in US government and elite wanted instability in Russia. US never interested to enslave the countries they invades - they are interested to deconstruct them. Take a look to Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya. US doesn't enslave them like german nazis. They just destroy their political systems, throwing them into chaos. From my, an ordinary dweller point of view, it's better with old aggressive dictator like Putin, but with a job, heat in a house and food in a stores, than to run with autogun in a snow steppes and fight with other gangs for food and fuel.

About nuclear weapons - probably you forgot, that by international conventions, tactical nukes are denied. And missile defence system doesn't protect against short-range missiles with nukes. You are correct, that US doesn't fight with Russia, because our nuclear arsenals "complement" each other, and we can't fight directly without unacceptable level of casualties. But when Ukraine president said that they can create short range nuclear weapons (and we know well, that they CAN - because a part of nukes and missiles of Soviet Union was built at Ukraine and by ukrainian scientists), there is a trouble for our russian defence. Because Ukraine is near, it wanted to got US investments, and there is some radical nationalists in its elite, who could try to use this nukes. So, when stupid ukrainian president yapped about nuclear project, he himself gave to Putin a casus belli.

And, finally, about Navalniy. Are you so naive, that you think, that some responsible and lawful men can raise to power in Russia??? ;D No, that's impossible. And Navalniy isn't a good candidature at all. All what he doing is plundering the money of western intelligences and babbling in the internet about corruption. (And corruptioners watching him too and wondering, a they really so bad?! I'm joking here, in fact everybody know that all elite in Russia is corrupted and it's not a news for anybody). In ten years Navalny did NOTHING real - corruption raises even more. Compared to him even Putin and Shoigu are better - because they enforced russian business to invest money into military complex, and ordinary people abled to get some money from this. What will be if Navalny turned into a president? Oh, come on, in a 3 years he will become a dictator even worse than Putin - and much worse, because he is more greedy and less experienced.

Note that a crack should take place today, due to the invasion of Putin. The price of oil is soaring.
If you have money, I dont even advise you to buy stocks. In my opinion, the slowing down of the economy, which started before the invasion of Ukraine, accentuated by the soaring costs of energy, will push stocks lower. In this context, the price of gold could go higher.

Hey Scarface -> I know this is off topic but let me ask anyway. I could have sworn I responded to Daniil's Feb 25 post on this topic, but I'm not seeing it. You know the forum's software better than I do. How do you see what you've posted beginning with last post and going backwards in time? I find it impossible that one of the other moderators deleted it.

So, invasion is stuck in intermediate phase. As always, our russian forces are fast, but suffers laxity and unorganization. And that's bad, because, first, every next day of conflict raises probability of casualities between civilians, and, second, ukrainian government get a time to enforce nationalistic groups and bandit gangs with weapons. That's really bad, because main goals of this groups are not the defence of invasion of russian army, but a settling scores with their internal enemies. And today this is a main danger for ukrainian civilians.

We, ordinary people, in Russia didn't feel sanctions yet. Most annoying reaction to western actions today is a total panic in russian press and crazy crying of russian intelligentsia. I saw real posts in facebook like "We all will die in nuclear fire! Please, forgive me everyone who I banned. I unbanned all my opponents." and "We will die very soon, so we must make a kind of mark, a relic, a signal for extraterrestrial civilisations who, probably, could find our planet millions years later. We must left any kind of memory about our collapsing civilization."

That all is because of istery, raised in media by western countries. As always, West is much better in informational wars. And a part of russian people already defeated and disoriented by your informational weapons.

Also, war shown real cost of all this intellectuals. They are too isteric and gullible. I'm already much more resistant (not least because of example of mr. Humbert  ;D ;)).

I expect a very deep recession in russian economy in nearest two month. So, I'm storing a food and thought about buying stocks of big russian IT and private financial companies - because after collapse they'll grow to the sky.

Quote from: humbert on March 01, 2022, 05:01 AM
Hey Scarface -> I know this is off topic but let me ask anyway. I could have sworn I responded to Daniil's Feb 25 post on this topic, but I'm not seeing it. You know the forum's software better than I do. How do you see what you've posted beginning with last post and going backwards in time? I find it impossible that one of the other moderators deleted it.

profile -> summary -> show posts
Or maybe it's a mod-tool you're thinking of :D ?

Quote from: humbert on March 01, 2022, 05:01 AM
Hey Scarface -> I know this is off topic but let me ask anyway. I could have sworn I responded to Daniil's Feb 25 post on this topic, but I'm not seeing it. You know the forum's software better than I do. How do you see what you've posted beginning with last post and going backwards in time? I find it impossible that one of the other moderators deleted it.

Click on you pseudo and then on "Show posts". Apparently you didn't post anything on January the 25th. At least if Vasudev or Maher didn't delete one of your messages (I didn't delete any messages last week, and even last month even if I still want to clean the "Windows 7 Component Store Cleanup - Rebase" topic - It seems shadow.97 made the same answer, one minute before.

Note that the crack of the cac40 continues today as Russian rockets hit Kharkiv while Mariupol is ‘hanging on’ and Russian troops are reportedly advancing towards Mykolaiv.

(https://i.ibb.co/nrkH59S/cac40.jpg)


In this context Russia faces financial meltdown as sanctions slam its economy.
The ruble crashed to a record low against the US dollar, the Russian central bank more than doubled interest rates to 20%, and the Moscow stock exchange was shuttered for the day. It will stay closed today, the central bank announced. The ruble lost up to 30% against the euro yesterday (see below).

(https://i.ibb.co/bKT8mDS/rubble.jpg)

Quote from: scarface on March 01, 2022, 12:51 PM
Russian rockets hit Kharkiv while Mariupol is ‘hanging on’ and Russian troops are reportedly advancing towards Mykolaiv.

Some internal info - just a hour ago I called my relatives in Izmail, it's on south-western border of Ukraine. 2 hours ago russian rockets destroyed RLS near the town. Luckily, with no casualities.

And latest update about the situation. In Ukraine shooting a bit, presidents of Ukraine and Russia continues negotiation, but:

• The stock exchanges in Russia temporarily deny to buy any stock of russian companies
• Central bank of Russia raising an invasion into economy. They announced that they will spent about a trillion rubles to buy-out the stock of russian companies.

That's good at a first glance - government supporting economy in a critical situation, etc. But - as I can remember, budget of the country was deficite this year. I.e., they just have no source to get this trillion. I.e., they just "printed" it.

That means that oligarchy just saving their skins, to deny other to get any part of their capital, regardless of any losses. And we'll get mighty inflation at end of this year.

That's not so bad, because most of critical infrastructure will stay working... But about any of goods from western countries we must forget for a looooong time... (

The sad part about the invasion is that Putin could have easily avoided all this. But NO. In his attempt to oust Zelensky's democratically elected government and install a puppet regime -- and seize Ukraine's oil and gas reserves -- has cost him dearly. The whole world is against him, even Switzerland. Xi Jing Ping in China called Putin's decision "regrettable". Worst of all, it's the Ukrainian and Russian people who must suffer the consequences.

Putin somehow believed this would be some sort of blitzkrieg and that Ukrainians would welcome their Russian brothers with flowers, liberating them from the "neo-Nazi" (Zelensky is Jewish) regime in Kyiv. What happened is quite the opposite. Fierce resistance - 6 days in and both Kharkiv and Kyiv are holding depite being vastly outnumbered. Many Russian soldiers have surrendered only because they decided not to participate in Putin's war, not because they were defeated militarily. This is, of course, not reported in Putin's news agencies.

It's important to understand the world has no issue with the Russian Federation nor with the Russian people. The culprit here is Putin. Sadly, getting rid of a despot is not easy.

Quote from: humbert on March 02, 2022, 05:06 AM
The sad part about the invasion is that Putin could have easily avoided all this.

Yes, that's true. This invasion is a result of a chain of an incorrect solutions, about 10 years long.

Quote from: humbert on March 02, 2022, 05:06 AM
It's important to understand the world has no issue with the Russian Federation nor with the Russian people. The culprit here is Putin. Sadly, getting rid of a despot is not easy.

Oh, come on! Western countries are same bastards as our russian government. Today my Facebook is blocked, I can't pay for a games in Steam, I can't upgrade my PC (which is crucial for my job), and if I want to go (even for run away) to Europe, any paths are blocked. Why? Only because I'm russian? That's same as nazism, by the way. Europeans yapping that they fight against Putin, but they didn't reject buying of russian natural gas. I.e., base of financial stability of Putin's regime is untouched, and they, in fact, fighting only with ordinary russians.

Quote from: Daniil on March 02, 2022, 09:20 AM
Oh, come on! Western countries are same bastards as our russian government. Today my Facebook is blocked, I can't pay for a games in Steam, I can't upgrade my PC (which is crucial for my job), and if I want to go (even for run away) to Europe, any paths are blocked. Why? Only because I'm russian? That's same as nazism, by the way. Europeans yapping that they fight against Putin, but they didn't reject buying of russian natural gas. I.e., base of financial stability of Putin's regime is untouched, and they, in fact, fighting only with ordinary russians.

Those sanctions are certainly hard for the Russians, but there is no denying that Putin is a dictator. He has become one of the world's richest man at the expense of the Russian population. A few months ago I read this article on Le Monde (maybe you can access it and translate it, at least the free part). It says "While macroeconomic indicators are at their highest, the standard of living of Russians continues to deteriorate. The fault of a rigid political system": https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2021/10/13/russie-riche-russes-pauvres_6098099_3234.html
I'm not sure such an article could be published in the main newspapers in Russia.
Note that In France, RT and Sputnik were banned. They were already the propaganda organs of the right-wing politicians like Marine Le Pen and Zemmour (they don't speak, they bark) who were publicly supporting the policy of Russia until recently. I must say that I was just following one speaker on RT France. A few days ago, before RT France was blocked, I stumbled upon another speaker on youtube who was supporting the invasion of Ukraine, of course. You feel that the journalists were warned against any attempt to keep away from the editorial policy.

Quote from: scarface on March 02, 2022, 09:50 AM
Those sanctions are certainly hard for the Russians, but there is no denying that Putin is a dictator. He has become one of the world's richest man at the expense of the Russian population. A few months ago I read this article on Le Monde (maybe you can access it and translate it, at least the free part). It says "While macroeconomic indicators are at their highest, the standard of living of Russians continues to deteriorate. The fault of a rigid political system": https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2021/10/13/russie-riche-russes-pauvres_6098099_3234.html
I'm not sure such an article could be published in the main newspapers in Russia.

That's no doubt.

Quote from: scarface on March 02, 2022, 09:50 AM
Note that In France, RT and Sputnik were banned. They were already the propaganda organs of the right-wing politicians like Marine Le Pen and Zemmour (they don't speak, they bark) who were publicly supporting the policy of Russia until recently. I must say that I was just following one speaker on RT France. A few days ago, before RT France was blocked, I stumbled upon another speaker on youtube who was supporting the invasion of Ukraine, of course.

And that is very good. Russian government TV and official youtube channels are just crazy. Looks like that they are built based on rules created by Goebbels - only emotions, rage and nazi-like hatred. Nobody of adequate people in Russia watch them. This channels are one of many mistakes of russian image in international politics. They made turn image of Russia to image of evil empire, and I definetly doesn't understand, why this was done.

Quote from: scarface on March 02, 2022, 09:50 AM
You feel that the journalists were warned against any attempt to keep away from the editorial policy.

That's an official law today that press must not said anything against an invasion, until the conflict is ended. Those who try to say anything against, are banned and agencies are closed. General procurator posted a law that nobody in official press must say anything against the conflict.

You can think that's a ferity, but I think that until conflict is over, it's normal. Because this could help to end the invasion faster and with less casualtites and instability inside of Russia. But I'm worried that even after all this, censorship will stayed (we are in Russia, things here changes from bad to very bad, no other way).

It's truly sad that the innocent people of Russia must suffer through these punishing sanctions. Unfortunately the only other alternative is nuclear war. If history has taught us anything, it's that dictators must be stopped. In the 1930's and 1940's free countries stood idly by and watched as the agressors of the day swallow nation after nation. The world paid a high price of its complacency. Today I read an article where Lukashenko spoke and implied, in no uncertain terms, that after Ukraine is done, Tsar Vladimir I next target is Moldova.

Don't think for a second the Russian oligarchs support this war. Many have had their assets frozen and seized left and right, and they're blaming the Tsar. One of them (I don't recall his name) even went as far as to put a bounty on Putin's head: he will pay $1 million dollars to whoever kills Tsar Vladimir I.

Another important reason Ukraine is still holding is because Russian soldiers have no interest in fighting. They see the Ukrainians as their brothers and not their enemies. Zelensky even signed a decree that Ukrainians who capture Russian tanks and weapons do not have to report them as income and therefore don't have to pay taxes on them! This can only happen if Russian soldiers simply abandon the tank and walk away (Zelensky decreed that Russian who do this will NOT be harmed). Of one thing I am certain: if Ukraine was an enclave of Nazi Germany, this war would have been over long ago.

It's funny Tsar Vladimir I calls the Ukrainians neo-fascists. American fascists such as hard-core Trump supporters and French fascists led by Marine LePen are both supporting Putin. And let's not forget the president of Ukraine is a Jew. Who then is the real fascist?

Another thing: formerly neutral nations such and Finland and Sweden now want to join NATO. The Tsar wanted to weaken NATO and achieved exactly the opposite.

Quote from: humbert on March 03, 2022, 06:12 AM
It's truly sad that the innocent people of Russia must suffer through these punishing sanctions. Unfortunately the only other alternative is nuclear war.

Oh, seriously?! ??? ;D
I.e., when US destroying Korea, Vietnam, Panama, Nikaragua, Libya, Iraq, Sirya, Yougoslavia, etc, etc, etc (US had conflicts with 25 (TWENTY FIVE) countries since 1950!), covering by the "need to protect national interests" (oh, yes, in Yugoslavia! And in Vietnam, yes, suuuure!) it's normal, no nuclear war needed? Because US are always good guy, not like other countries?
Or maybe just because this countries has no nuclear weapons, almost no military industry, and they have no chances to strike back?
Or Russia have no rights to protect it's interests, just because US propaganda say that US are good, and Russia are definetly bad?

Quote from: humbert on March 03, 2022, 06:12 AM
If history has taught us anything, it's that dictators must be stopped. In the 1930's and 1940's free countries stood idly by and watched as the agressors of the day swallow nation after nation. The world paid a high price of its complacency. Today I read an article where Lukashenko spoke and implied, in no uncertain terms, that after Ukraine is done, Tsar Vladimir I next target is Moldova.

Yes, for sure dictators must be stopped. So, help to stop them! Why after your western "help" russian banking and oligarchs got ONE TRILLION (one thousand billions!) from budget as "supporting in critical situation", and I can't now buy sweden furniture from IKEA? Why I can't even get away from here? Modern US strategists are stupid idiots, they can't be even compared with those smart badasses who win the Cold War. They know nothing about peoples. US defeated the Sovet Union not by their power, but by their friendliness, openness, rock music, jeans, bubblegum and ideas of freedom. And with current politics, they'll got a USSR 2.0 - a hybrid between USSR 1.0 and fascist Germany, with new mad dictator.

Quote from: humbert on March 03, 2022, 06:12 AM
Don't think for a second the Russian oligarchs support this war. Many have had their assets frozen and seized left and right, and they're blaming the Tsar.

Nope. I already said, how many money they got after economic blockade, and they'll got more.

Quote from: humbert on March 03, 2022, 06:12 AM
One of them (I don't recall his name) even went as far as to put a bounty on Putin's head: he will pay $1 million dollars to whoever kills Tsar Vladimir I.

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D Are you so naive, that you think that $1M in this business is so big price? Putin just give to the killer his wirstwatch. If you watched Navalniy's videos, you should know, that ded's wirstwatch are about $1.58M

Quote from: humbert on March 03, 2022, 06:12 AM
Another important reason Ukraine is still holding is because Russian soldiers have no interest in fighting. They see the Ukrainians as their brothers and not their enemies. Zelensky even signed a decree that Ukrainians who capture Russian tanks and weapons do not have to report them as income and therefore don't have to pay taxes on them! This can only happen if Russian soldiers simply abandon the tank and walk away (Zelensky decreed that Russian who do this will NOT be harmed). Of one thing I am certain: if Ukraine was an enclave of Nazi Germany, this war would have been over long ago.

No, that's mostly because our troubles with logistics. Russian tanks just stopped without spareparts, and logistical units just doesn't reached it at a time. So they are dropped from the roads to save the speed of armoured columns, and was found by ukrainians. That's known problem - that was wide-spreaded, for example, in conflict with Chekhoslovakia at 1968. Also, at war nobody pay taxes for tanks, comrade. :D
You're absolutely correct, nobody want to fight against Ukraine. There are lot of relatives and families of all of us at Ukraine. But if commanders said to attack, orders doesn't discussed.

BTW, officially active phase of conflict is over. We got casualties - 498 dead, 1571 injured, and about 2100 deads and 3100 injured from Ukraine's side. That's not good, because, by my experience, our military decreases casulaties about a factor 1.5. I.e., we got about 750 "twohundred". About losses in civilians I have no info, but, as I know from Ukraine side, they are about 10-15 dead and 300+ injured. That's very bad, because they are innocent victims.

Quote from: humbert on March 03, 2022, 06:12 AM
It's funny Tsar Vladimir I calls the Ukrainians neo-fascists. American fascists such as hard-core Trump supporters and French fascists led by Marine LePen are both supporting Putin. And let's not forget the president of Ukraine is a Jew. Who then is the real fascist?

Yes, the fascist rethorics are definetly visible in speaches of official government. Putin looks like he is resisting to that yet, but many others have in their heads a monstrous mix of othodoxal ideas and purely slavic fascism. That's ashame for all us. The trouble is in a small bunch of neo-slavic, neo-fascist philosofers, near to Kremlin, so called "Russian Society" - like pure fascist Alexander Dugin with his ideas that slavs are aryans (in the same sense in which German propaganda said about the Germans ). They are a kind of slavic radicals - like a muslims radicals. They have a large influence to some russian political officials.

BTW, comrades, I think that we seeing a historic event - we seeing now a first war of cyberpunk society, an example of art of war and politics of a new age of human civilization. I.e., main sides are corporative conglomerates, no direct conflict, but one of sides are almost destroyed, dropped in growth 25 years back. And we shouldn't use a terms "Russia, US, Europe" etc. We should read news like this: "Corporative conglomerate Ursh, after a ravage economical invasion, disadvantageously exchanged their financial assets to capital goods with United Bauhaus Conglomerate."

Before I respond, let me ask: do you have access to news agencies other than Putin's propaganda?

Quote from: Daniil on March 03, 2022, 09:08 PM
I.e., when US destroying Korea, Vietnam, Panama, Nikaragua, Libya, Iraq, Sirya, Yougoslavia, etc, etc, etc (US had conflicts with 25 (TWENTY FIVE) countries since 1950!), covering by the "need to protect national interests"

None of the countries you mentioned are "destroyed", not even Vietnam which his the most extreme example. All are alive and well and enjoy good relations with the USA, with the possible exception of Syria and North Korea. While the USA might have influence in one more than another, none are US puppet states. If you want we'll take each country one by one for a more detailed explanation.

Quote from: Daniil on March 03, 2022, 09:08 PM
(oh, yes, in Yugoslavia! And in Vietnam, yes, suuuure!) it's normal, no nuclear war needed? Because US are always good guy, not like other countries?

Yugoslavia was brought together artifically in 1927. They took Croats, Serbs, Slovenes, Bosnians, Montenegrenes, and Kosovarians, lumping them together into one country. After the war dictator Josip Broz (Tito) took over and established a strong anti-Soviet Communist government that continued to hold the country together by force. After he died everthing fell apart, then came the war where there was ethnic cleansing and concentration camps. NATO stepped in to stop the violence. Now all these countries are individually sovereign.

Quote from: Daniil on March 03, 2022, 09:08 PM
Or Russia have no rights to protect it's interests, just because US propaganda say that US are good, and Russia are definetly bad?

Does "protect its interests" include the present invasion of Ukraine? Are you suggesting the world stand idly by and let Putin get away with this?

Quote from: Daniil on March 03, 2022, 09:08 PM
Yes, for sure dictators must be stopped. So, help to stop them! Why after your western "help" russian banking and oligarchs got ONE TRILLION (one thousand billions!) from budget as "supporting in critical situation", and I can't now buy sweden furniture from IKEA? Why I can't even get away from here? Modern US strategists are stupid idiots, they can't be even compared with those smart badasses who win the Cold War. They know nothing about peoples. US defeated the Sovet Union not by their power, but by their friendliness, openness, rock music, jeans, bubblegum and ideas of freedom. And with current politics, they'll got a USSR 2.0 - a hybrid between USSR 1.0 and fascist Germany, with new mad dictator.

Terrible mistakes were made by people in power who probably did not understand the situation in Russia. As I recall Russia was temporarily a democracy (at least on paper) until Putin took power in 1999 and decided to stay there. And NO, the west did NOT "win" the cold war. It was Gorbachev who introduced glasnost followed by perestroika. As western influence came in it became clear to everyone in Russia that Communist economics don't work. After that everything fell apart.

Quote from: Daniil on March 03, 2022, 09:08 PM
Nope. I already said, how many money they got after economic blockade, and they'll got more.

I saw in the news today one of the oligarchs lost a $600 million yacht. Germany seized it. Yes, they have plenty of money but they could continue making more in Putin hadn't invaded Ukraine -- and all without any issue with the west. At least this guy would still have his yacht.

Quote from: Daniil on March 03, 2022, 09:08 PM
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D Are you so naive, that you think that $1M in this business is so big price? Putin just give to the killer his wirstwatch. If you watched Navalniy's videos, you should know, that ded's wirstwatch are about $1.58M

The simple fact that somebody puts a bounty on anyone's head doesn't mean killing his target will be easy. I'm just telling you what he did. Why? We should pose the question to him.

Quote from: Daniil on March 03, 2022, 09:08 PM
No, that's mostly because our troubles with logistics. Russian tanks just stopped without spareparts, and logistical units just doesn't reached it at a time. So they are dropped from the roads to save the speed of armoured columns, and was found by ukrainians. That's known problem - that was wide-spreaded, for example, in conflict with Chekhoslovakia at 1968. Also, at war nobody pay taxes for tanks, comrade. :D
You're absolutely correct, nobody want to fight against Ukraine. There are lot of relatives and families of all of us at Ukraine. But if commanders said to attack, orders doesn't discussed.

I don't dispute the fact that there have been problems with logistics. But with respect to Russian soldiers not violating orders, all western press outlets report a different picture. Naturally Putin doesn't allow this to be discussed. That's the same situation with the death toll. The numbers you mentioned are what Putin reported, in fact I saw them in the news today (i.e., Putin said....) . Ukraine's figures reported by the press are different. I do know one thing - we are one week in as of today and Ukraine is still holding. This despite overwhelming Russian military superiority. Do you believe Putin?

Note that a new crack is expected today on the stock markets as Russian President vowed no let-up in his invasion of Ukraine.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, was shelled.

(https://i.ibb.co/2M23z0n/cac40.jpg)

Today, the crack of the stock markets continued with the war in Ukraine and the soaring prices of commodities.
The cac 40 lost 5%, while the price of Brent is up 3% at 114$ per barrel.

(https://i.ibb.co/dmc6xgM/cac40.jpg)

Quote from: scarface on March 04, 2022, 06:44 PM
Today, the crack of the stock markets continued with the war in Ukraine and the soaring prices of commodities.

Tell me about it. I deliver food as a part-time job. I've seen gasoline prices as high as 95¢ per liter! Here in Texas it's not that bad because this is an oil and gas state. I don't even want to see what it's like in California. The sad part about all this is that even before the war the US imported less than 3% of it's oil from Russia. As of today's date the price of a barrel of oil is $115. To put this into perspective, it waas $68.25 on December 20, 2021. Thanks Tsar Vladimir.

Quote from: humbert on March 06, 2022, 05:05 AM
Tell me about it. I deliver food as a part-time job. I've seen gasoline prices as high as 95¢ per liter! Here in Texas it's not that bad because this is an oil and gas state. I don't even want to see what it's like in California. The sad part about all this is that even before the war the US imported less than 3% of it's oil from Russia. As of today's date the price of a barrel of oil is $115. To put this into perspective, it waas $68.25 on December 20, 2021. Thanks Tsar Vladimir.

Maybe you can use a bicycle...
Here a photo taken on the Bvd St Germain in front of the Mcdonald.
(https://i.ibb.co/0F3043y/livreurs-a-velo-1.jpg)

In France gas prices are much higher. Here I filled up the car (half of a tank actually)
(https://i.ibb.co/dgxHxZQ/20220302-095042.jpg)

Tonight, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

The Brent oil price futures are up 8% tonight (and 9% for the WTI, at 125$!), as Russia-Ukraine war drives supply fears. Unfortunately for humbert who is a delivery man, the gasoline price should keep going up, at least on the short term.
(https://i.ibb.co/KqDPV2G/brent.jpg)


Likewise, The gas prices futures are up 2%. The Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark gas price for Europe, surged to a record high on Friday amid concerns about supply disruptions from Russia and traders steering clear of deals with Gazprom’s trading unit.
In this context, the stock markets futures are down 250 points on the Dow Jones and 40 points on the cac40. The downward move should continue.

Note that another crack is currenly taking place on the European stock markets. The cac 40 is losing 4,6%. (Away from the turmoil, it probably makes Maher and humbert laugh).

Quote from: scarface on March 07, 2022, 01:19 AM
The Brent oil price futures are up 8% tonight (and 9% for the WTI, at 125$!), as Russia-Ukraine war drives supply fears. Unfortunately for humbert who is a delivery man, the gasoline price should keep going up, at least on the short term.

Tell me about it! To fill the gas tank today cost me $42. I'm thinking of getting a hybrid. They're very economical especially for driving in the city. Hybrids started with the Toyota Prius, now all manufacturers have them. I keep hearing the government is going to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserves in order to lower the price. We shall see.

Quote from: humbert on March 08, 2022, 04:50 AM
Tell me about it! To fill the gas tank today cost me $42. I'm thinking of getting a hybrid. They're very economical especially for driving in the city. Hybrids started with the Toyota Prius, now all manufacturers have them. I keep hearing the government is going to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserves in order to lower the price. We shall see.

The difficulty is that San Antonio is not densely populated. If the oil price is not affordable any more for you, the solution of the bicycle could be sustainable but it's not feasible if you have to travel long distancies for your deliveries. In my opinion, a high oil price is threatening the business models of firms like Amazon or Uber eats. They are not viable if oil is too expensive.
Maybe a differentiation strategy could help you. If you are delivering food only in a small neighborhood and not in the whole city, a donkey would be enough.

A delivery donkey in Fes el Bali, Morocco
(https://i.ibb.co/TTkBpNL/donkey.jpg)

My father informed me that he today paid 27.2 SEK (â,¬2.50) for 1L of Diesel.
Price of Diesel in Ireland is â,¬1.829 per 1L.

In USD/Gallon that is:
Swe:
1 Gallon = $10.35
Ire:
1 Gallon = $6.92

The price of gasoline is out of control. And all because of one tin-plated deranged dictator.

I'm seriously considering getting myself a hybrid. From what I read, hybrids are ideal for trips inside the city. I envy those of you who live in [for example] Paris where you don't need a car. The metro is ideal and it's all you need.

Fortunately for the deliveries I do on the side, we're not yet at the point where what I spend on fuel is greater than the money I make. I get paid only when I deliver, in the mean time while I wait the car is parked. And of course this is only something I do on the side. I get a pension from the government with full health care benefits.

Quote from: humbert on March 09, 2022, 06:22 AM
The price of gasoline is out of control. And all because of one tin-plated deranged dictator.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on March 08, 2022, 04:59 PM
My father informed me that he today paid 27.2 SEK (â,¬2.50) for 1L of Diesel.

Quote from: humbert on March 08, 2022, 04:50 AM
Tell me about it! To fill the gas tank today cost me $42.

Quote from: scarface on March 06, 2022, 12:31 PM
Maybe you can use a bicycle...

Kekekekeke!.. [spiteful russian sounds] ;D Feel the pain to be Russian!

If seriously - it's sad that all this strikes all of you this hard.

Quote from: humbert on March 04, 2022, 06:03 AM
And NO, the west did NOT "win" the cold war.

I'll answer to this quite later, mr. Humbert. I want a notice, that you are under effect of your american propaganda as well as many of older people here in Russia are under effect of our propaganda. The difference only in quality of methods - US propagandists works much more subtlety than our oak-crackers.

Quote from: Daniil on March 10, 2022, 06:05 PM

Quote from: humbert on March 04, 2022, 06:03 AM
And NO, the west did NOT "win" the cold war.

I'll answer to this quite later, mr. Humbert. I want a notice, that you are under effect of your american propaganda as well as many of older people here in Russia are under effect of our propaganda. The difference only in quality of methods - US propagandists works much more subtlety than our oak-crackers.

On a mention of this, I've caught myself red handed falling for propaganda from both west and Rus/China during the current events. Made me sad to realise.
I've also tried keeping my mouth shut to the greatest extent, as I believe that most people I stumble upon are quite educated and knowledgable.

Shadow: ANYBODY can fall for propaganda and/or believe a lie. For propaganda to work it must (1) be kept simple so anyone can understand it, and (2) based on constant repetition. Reliable information in the news is often hard to get. It comes down to what lie you want to believe. Even so, give yourself credit - you are easily one of the most brilliant people I've had the pleasure of knowing. This is, of course, not to belittle others on our forum.

Quote from: Daniil on March 10, 2022, 06:05 PM
I'll answer to this quite later, mr. Humbert. I want a notice, that you are under effect of your american propaganda as well as many of older people here in Russia are under effect of our propaganda. The difference only in quality of methods - US propagandists works much more subtlety than our oak-crackers.

In order for me to respond correctly, please give me a more accurate definition of "American propaganda" and why you believe I'm under its influence.

I should also mention that my comments on the west NOT winning the cold war are MY personal opinion based on the facts I have. Many Americans, including people high in the government, do not share my opinion.

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

This morning, the cac 40 is down 1,2%. The traders are worried about the sharp rise in oil prices. Over the past week, oil prices climbed by 20%.
I can only advise humbert to make his deliveries with a bicycle (some are running with electrical assistance).


(https://i.ibb.co/mDN2qRz/oil.jpg)

Quote from: scarface on March 23, 2022, 03:21 PMI can only advise humbert to make his deliveries with a bicycle (some are running with electrical assistance)

Unfortunately that's not an option. Distances too long, orders too hard to carry :). The price of fuel has gone down. Oil was down to approx $95 a barrel and as of this writing is back up to $116. Today I bought gasoline at $3.67 per US gallon, or  $0.97 per liter. I'm thinking the price drop is due to production increases from other sources as well as releases from the strategic petroleum reserves.

I use an app called Oil Prices. Not only does it have the price of oil but all other commodities as well. If you have an Android phone I can send you a copy of the APK file.

First time in my life, prices for gasoline in Russia going low. It's strange to see this.

Quote from: Daniil on April 03, 2022, 02:03 PMFirst time in my life, prices for gasoline in Russia going low. It's strange to see this.

This is not just a Russian phenomenon. The price of gasoline here is also down. Here in San Antonio gasoline maxed out at $1.054/l - today I bought gas at $0.927/l. This despite the fact that oil went up a bit from the past few days.

Also keep in mind Russia has plenty of oil and their overseas sales have dropped due to the sanctions.

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the financial markets.


European stock markets traded lower Wednesday, weighed by the likely imposition of new Western sanctions on Russia as well as concerns of aggressive monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The European Commission has already proposed new sanctions including banning Russian coal imports and halting trade worth nearly 20 billion euros ($22 billion), and the White House said late Tuesday that its new measures will target Russian banks and officials and ban investment in Russia.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions already levied by the West as punishment have roiled markets, causing sharp rises in commodity prices, prompting fears of sharply slower growth this year.

German factory orders fell 2.2% on the month in February in the runup to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, falling for the first time in four months and underscoring concerns over weaker growth in Europe's largest economy.

Also, dragging on the European markets are set to receive a negative handover from Asia and Wall Street after comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard raised expectations of aggressive interest rate rises by the U.S. central bank, added to by hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard, normally seen as one of the more dovish members of the central bank policymakers.

This puts the focus firmly on the release later Wednesday of minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting, with investors looking for clues over the likelihood of a 50 basis point hike at the U.S. central bank's next meeting in May.

In this context, the cac 40 is down 1.81%.
(https://i.ibb.co/kBM6wgV/cac40.jpg)

Quote from: humbert on April 05, 2022, 04:17 AM

Quote from: Daniil on April 03, 2022, 02:03 PMFirst time in my life, prices for gasoline in Russia going low. It's strange to see this.

This is not just a Russian phenomenon. The price of gasoline here is also down. Here in San Antonio gasoline maxed out at $1.054/l - today I bought gas at $0.927/l. This despite the fact that oil went up a bit from the past few days.

Also keep in mind Russia has plenty of oil and their overseas sales have dropped due to the sanctions.

Everything has jacked up prices from fuel to food incl. cooking oil and medicine in India.

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.


The European markets climb as investors look ahead to U.S. inflation data: Stoxx 600 is up 1,1%.


(https://i.ibb.co/k5TVPP0/cac40.jpg)


There has been a lot of bearishness lately, with a bad global context. The positive morning in Europe came after choppy trading sessions in the region, and in markets further afield.
Recent market volatility has been driven by investor concerns over rising interest rates and question marks over how aggressively the Fed will act to curb rising inflation. What's more there are worries about the situation in Ukraine. On the short term I'm bullish: I invested on Monday in the Ucits Thematics AAA consumer RC (with a net asset value calculated on the following day of the purchase). I don't think there is a lot of upside potential, but we could see a  rebound of 5% or 6%. For the moment, the stock markets are still bearish on the middle term.

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.


Asian stocks fell in early trade Thursday after overnight drops on Wall Street as investors fret over inflation and looming recession. MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.92 per cent.

The dollar moved higher on a strong footing, buttressed by various reasons. Falling commodity prices dragged the Australian and Canadian currencies lower on Tuesday, although the dollar was steady against most other majors while bitcoin continued to tumble.

Oil prices eased in early Asian trade on Thursday, taking a pause after rising more than 5% in the previous session following new Russian sanctions on some European gas companies. Brent crude futures fell 9 cents to $107.42 a barrel. WTI crude futures fell 13 cents to $105.58 a barrel.

As for the European stock markets, they traded sharply lower Thursday as persistent U.S. inflation raised fears of aggressive Fed monetary tightening, while weak U.K. growth data hinted at a regional slowdown.
European investors digested Thursday the latest inflation data out of the U.S., as headline consumer prices rose 8.3% for the 12 months to April, remaining very close to last month's 40-year high, prompting renewed fears about the extent of the economic damage to the world's major growth driver created by the aggressive interest rate hikes needed to tame soaring prices.
Potential weakness in the world's economic driver adds to the deteriorating global picture, as the war in Ukraine threatens an energy crisis in Europe and ongoing COVID lockdowns in China hit the growth potential of the world's second-largest economy.


(https://i.ibb.co/kDbG4pj/cac40.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

The financial markets are down as recession fears weigh on markets. The cac 40 is down 2.20%.
(https://i.ibb.co/YcVrCZc/cac40.jpg)


Over the past 2 days, Walmart Inc. tumbled the most in almost 35 years after cutting its full-year profit forecast due to inflationary pressures, especially in food and fuel yesterday.
This analyst, located in Dubai, explains what's going on (conference in French): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Al9TaKwW400
(https://i.ibb.co/R2y51TG/walmart.jpg)


Note that Shares in Orpea Plunged on Allegations of Financial Misconduct: shares in Orpea were down 19% yesterday, and they are down 8% today.

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the financial markets.


Wall Street stocks fell sharply early Friday following fresh data showing surging consumer prices that quashed hopes inflation would quickly abate.

(https://i.brecorder.com/primary/2022/06/1019125339dabc7.jpg)

About 20 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones was down 1.8 percent at 31,700 points.
Friday's report showed the consumer price index (CPI) jumped 8.6 percent compared to May 2021, topping analyst estimates and up from 8.3 percent in the 12 months ending in April.

In this context, European stocks are dropping: the cac40 is tumbling 2.62%.

(https://i.ibb.co/ZY5mYMN/cac40.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the financial markets.

The krack continues on the stock markets today, as the S&P500 is down 2.88%, the Dow jones down 2.57% and the CAC40 down 2.61%.
Since the previous message written on 10 june, the cac 40 shed 5%.
Apparently The recession fear keeps growing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCh4huZ-6CE

Shares in Atos SE traded down on Thursday once again (-9%) after the company outlined earlier this week a restructuring plan and the departure of its recently appointed chief executive officer. The proposed reorganization would see its digital and big data business lines combined into a new, separately listed entity named Evidian.
The spinoff project removes all speculation on a potential acquisition of the big data unit by Thales, Orange and Airbus and may be an attractive exit door for Atos's shareholders, analysts at Bryan Garnier said in a research note. However, the time required to complete the plan makes the shares unattractive for the next 12 months as the company will face many challenges before the deal is closed, they say.

Note that I bought some Société Générale stocks on Tuesday at 22.41 € per share.

(https://i.ibb.co/d0nk63Y/cac40.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

It's a rough day for equities so far in European markets and stocks look to March lows as the selling pressure continues.

The DAX is down 2.3%, CAC 40 down 1.9%, and FTSE MIB down 2.3% and are all looking poised for a potential drop towards their respective March lows.

However, if there is a lot of bearishness in the stock markets, I stay bullish for bank stocks with the speech of Powell this afternoon (and maybe a rate hike).


(https://i.ibb.co/n1gYrhJ/cac40.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/QNfwccV/DAX.jpg)

Note that I invested in the stock market 2 days ago: I bought 1000 Michelin shares at 24.50 €.
Maybe some users of the forum don't know this firm. Michelin is a French multinational tyre manufacturing company based in Clermont-Ferrand (and the only firm of the cac 40 based outside the Paris region). This is the second largest tyre manufacturer in the world behind Bridgestone.
In 2019, I posted a few photos taken in the Michelin museum in Clermont Ferrand in this topic: https://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=2283.msg35149#msg35149
I got Maher and humbert involved in this investment: if the stock goes up, I will transfer one third of the capital gains to them. It mean that if the the stock climbs by 10%, they will get roughly 700 €. If the stock goes down, they won't have to pay for the loss.

Quote from: scarface on September 01, 2022, 08:27 PMI got Maher and humbert involved in this investment: if the stock goes up, I will transfer one third of the capital gains to them. It mean that if the the stock climbs by 10%, they will get roughly 700 €. If the stock goes down, they won't have to pay for the loss.

Whether or not stocks will go up or down is either unknown to all or known to a select few that have critical inside information. If the former is true then what makes all this any different from casino gambling?

Quote from: humbert on September 02, 2022, 05:08 AMWhether or not stocks will go up or down is either unknown to all or known to a select few that have critical inside information. If the former is true then what makes all this any different from casino gambling?

Casino gambling is a game of pure chance (Note that the word "chance" also exists in French, but it is a false friend. If you see the sentence "j'ai de la chance", it means "I'm lucky" or "I have luck". And the English word "chance" must be translated as "hasard" in French, for instance in the sentence "un jeu de hasard". And "hasard" in French can't be translated as "hazard" in English either, which means "risk" or "danger").
Here we are talking about investment. If it's true that we don't know if the Michelin share will go up or down, At laest we can ponder whether or not to invest in this firm.
We can see that it lost one third of its value since January, in a difficult global context for stock markets, with an energy crisis that has sent inflation soaring across the world, those uncertainties being compounded by the war in Ukraine.
Since I have strong technical accounting skills (I have a master's degree in finance), I looked at the income statements of Michelin and this firm looks pretty healthy (an income statement is one of the three important financial statements used for reporting a company's financial performance over a specific accounting period, with the other two key statements being the balance sheet and the statement of cash flows). What's more its Price earning ratio is pretty low, which means that the Michelin stock is trading at potentially attractive discounts. It's much cheaper than its main competitors, Bridgestone and Continental.

Next week, it seems that the stock market will go down again: the futures are totally red (already -2% for the cac 40 and the Dax futures), as the Dow Jones plunged after the closing of the European markets. In this context, I hope that Michelin will outpertform the rest of the market, but that remains rather uncertain. Till recently, I earnt money because I was bearish on the markets, and I should have kept those positions.
(https://i.ibb.co/GMVKfWC/Igmarkets.jpg)

Even with your knowledge of economics and even with trends and indicators pointing up or down, there is no solid guarantee the investment will pay off. Either way you look at it, it all boils down to chance. In that regard there isn't much of a difference from casino gambling.

Quote from: humbert on September 05, 2022, 05:55 AMEven with your knowledge of economics and even with trends and indicators pointing up or down, there is no solid guarantee the investment will pay off. Either way you look at it, it all boils down to chance. In that regard there isn't much of a difference from casino gambling.

Once again you're probably right humbert. However I'm trying to maximize my chances of positive returns.
Look at the winning probability below. This is for Euromillion. You don't need to have been awarded the fields medal to understand that the odds of earning money in this game are pretty slim. That's why I rarely play the lottery.
(https://i.ibb.co/hWvpX3c/Euromillion-Odds-of-winning.png)

Today, Michelin shed 4% of its value and I lost 1000€. The indefinite closure of Nord Stream 1 sent stock reeling with euro below dollar parity.
You and Maher must be wondering if the donation is being jeopardized because of the stock market fall. The answer is no. I'm going to hold the position, It'll just take time for the share price to recover.
(https://i.ibb.co/SPRh82c/ml.jpg)

Quote from: scarface on September 05, 2022, 09:10 PMOnce again you're probably right humbert. However I'm trying to maximize my chances of positive returns.
Look at the winning probability below. This is for Euromillion. You don't need to have been awarded the fields medal to understand that the odds of earning money in this game are pretty slim. That's why I rarely play the lottery.

If it weren't like that it wouldn't be a lottery. That's how they make money. People who buy lottery tickets buy a dream. I've never bought one in my life.

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

U.S. stocks whiplashed on Tuesday in a volatile trading session at the start of the holiday-shortened week as investors weighed what strong economic data and rising rates mean for the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening campaign.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 250 points, or 0.80%, climbing off lows of the day boosted by defensive stocks such as Johnson & Johnson and Coca-Cola. The S&P 500 slipped 0.68% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.98%, weighed down by falling tech stocks.

At the same time, bond yields surged, adding to the rout in stocks. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury jumped as much as 0.162 percentage point to 3.353% before settling lower, up around 0.13 percentage point at 3.342% as investors sold bonds. Yields move inversely to prices.

The moves came after August ISM data Tuesday morning was stronger than expected, coming in at 56.9 versus expectations of 55.5. The report follows Friday's jobs release, which also beat Wall Street's expectations, showing a more solid U.S. economy than anticipated.

After a small rebound in Europe, the cac 40 and Dax Futures are down 0,4%.

(https://i.ibb.co/gFXK8rD/Dow-Jones.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the financial markets.


French stocks were moving lower on Friday, even as a survey showed France's private sector growth unexpectedly improved in September driven by the services activity.
The composite output index rose to 51.2 in September from a 17-month low of 50.4 in August, according to flash survey results from S&P Global. The reading was forecast to fall to 49.8.
The service sector was the sole driver of the expansion in September in a stark contrast to the trend in the manufacturing sector.
The flash services Purchasing Managers' Index advanced to 53.0 from 51.2 in the previous month.
The benchmark CAC 40 fell 2.5 percent, to 5,770 after tumbling 1.87 percent on Thursday.

(https://i.ibb.co/PzbMK4m/cac40.jpg)

More news:
- The US housing market is in a recession, and home prices are poised to tumble another 20% by next summer, a top economist has warned. "The plunging trend in sales has further to go, and prices are falling," Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a research note published on Wednesday. Shepherdson and his team estimated that seasonally adjusted existing-home prices slid by 0.7% in August, the third monthly decline in a row. Prices are now down about 5% from their May peak, and are poised to slide further despite a tight supply of homes, they said.


- Oil prices on Friday tumbled to a nine-month low as recession fears swept throughout global risk assets and the US dollar continued this year's ascent to reach a fresh two-decade high against major currencies.

- Russia plans to slash its natural gas exports via pipeline by around 40% over the next three years, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. Moscow will cut gas exports to around 125.2 billion cubic meters in 2023-2025, potentially exacerbating Europe's energy crisis. That's down from an estimated 142 billion cubic meters this year. While the draft budget viewed by Bloomberg doesn't break down flows by different export markets, historic data and current gas flows point to China becoming the second-largest buyer of Russian pipeline gas due to a deal to supply around 21 billion cubic meters through the Power of Siberia pipeline. Meanwhile, Turkey is likely to become the largest client.

A photo of a young girl taking to the streets in London to protest against the policy of Russia.
(https://i.ibb.co/f2rP7RQ/Putin.jpg)

I had a good week on the stock market and tonight I will tell you what happened since early septembre. You are going to see that you must have a clear mind when you invest.
Maybe I will upload a new movie soon too.

Today, I decided to show you what you should avoid when you invest money, which is averaging down a position. It's better to sell a position if you think you have make a mistake. In this case you are going to see that the end is good but I could have lost money.

Well, I decided to give 100 $ to humbert (he'll share it with Maher). It's not an enormous sum, but it's better than nothing. What's more I mailing since I don't have your bank details and it could be lost. Humbert will remind me his address by pm.
After What I've lived, I guess I can do that.

This year I earnt money on the stock market. I use ucits on a life insurance and since mid 2021, I decided to bet against the market with an inverse ETF (no leverage). I took a first position at 6600 points on the cac 40. At 7300 points I was losing 10% but I kept a cool head and I ended up earning money when the war in Ukraine began, then the cac 40 crumbled, with the other stock markets, and I sold this position. The war in Ukraine was probably a significant catalyst, but the overvaluation of the stock markets was undeniable.
I pursued this strategy successfully after each rebound. I only have a small amount on this life insurance, but it's up 15% this year. I only lost with Michelin (less than 1%, bought at 24,40 sold at 24,18), I just wasn't feeling it any more.
Early September I was willing to take more risks. I invested on Orpea with my trading account. And it's not a discovery for me. But I have to tell you how I turned a catastrophic investment into a capital gain.
I followed the fall of Orpea share price after the nursing home scandal blew up, due to the release of the book "les fossoyeurs". The nursing home of Neuilly Sur Seine, a flagship building for this international group, near l''île de la Jatte, was at the center of the revelations. The stock price was at 90€ in January and after a profit warning I decided to invest in Orpea. The stock was down 15%. I bought 1000 stocks at  17,9€, thinking it was an opportunity (it had already lost 80% since January after all). The stock crumbled and ended the trading session at -25%. A few days later I bought 1000 more shares at 15,1 €. The stock price kept crumbling. At 12.90 € I was already suffering heavy losses but I bought 1000 more shares. I sold them at 13.20 € because I knew at that point that the trend was "rather bearish". In fact, when I began investing in Orpea, I didn't know that the financial situation of the group was so dire. The group announced heavy losses later and some funds were clearly accumulating some short sell positions: Helikon Investments took an enormous short sell position of 4% of the capital mid September ! I bought 1000 shares at 12.90 and sold them at 13.20€. I already had a big unrealized loss and in the meantime I had only earnt 600€. But I was averaging down my position even if it's dangerous because in case the stock went back to 13 or 14€, it was my only solution to recoup my losses. Then I bought again 1000 shares at 11.70 (So in late September I had 3000 shares). At this point the stock price went down again after Orpea annouced heavy losses and a falling profitability. It's very bad for the goup, which is very indebted: According to the last reported balance sheet, Orpea had liabilities of €3.58b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €12.5b due beyond 12 months. So Orpea shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (19.2), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.6 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, Orpea saw its EBIT tank 47% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The stock price was below 10€ on October the 13th. At that point I had roughly an unrealized loss of 15000€. At that point I decided to stop averaging down my position even if I could have bought more shares. I decided to wait. Then mid October I learnt that Jp morgan bought 5% of the capital. Maybe the stock was going to rebound. At that point I didn't have to wait long. I sold 1000 stocks on October the 18th at 12.28 € (those bought at 11.70 €). Then on October the 19th, the stock price skyrocketed. Unfortunately, I sold my position in the morning, 1000 stocks at 13.65 € (+6%) and another position at 14.90 € (+16%). I knew that I was losing money doing this (positions bought at 15,1 and 17,9 €). Little did I know that the stock would be up 46%, reaching 18,88% a few hours later. Apparently, the short sellers were panicking. It was difficult to predict such a violent rise of the stock price. But it finally ended the session up 10% at 14,16€. At that point I Had no more Orpea shares, but I still had a loss of 3400 €. Today, I noticed that the stock price was up at the beginning of the trading session (up 7%), but then the short sellers have taken over and the stock price declined. I decided to buy  back 2000 shares at 13,10€. I sold them in the afternoon at 15€, earning roughly 3800€. I finally made a capital gain with Orpea (of roughly 400 €).
So you see that I took I lot of risks and I didn't earn a lot of money. Thanks to experience and tenacity I kept the head cold and didn't panick. I don't invest all my money in a single position too, even if this was a big position and if the unrealized loss was pretty big. I won't buy Orpea shares again, even if the stock price goes back to 10€. Because of the financial situation of the group, a capital increase and a dilution of existing shareholders can not be ruled out. I didn't reinvest the 44700 € I had initially invested in Orpea (17.9*1000+15.1*1000+11.7*1000 with an average purchase price of 14.9 €). After a recent rebound, I think that another correction could take place on the stock markets.

According to statistics roughly 90% of the individual investor are losing money on the stocks markets. If you are investing, I advise you to invest only if you can bear losses.

For those who doubts I did this, I put a screenshot of my trades below.
(https://i.ibb.co/xFkbQ1P/trades.jpg)

Note that I'm looking for a new opportunity after Orpea (note that the stock was suspended due to legal proceedings and it lost 33% today: I was right to sell everything last week).
What do you think about M6, Ubisoft or LDLC?
To put it bluntly, the Ubisoft stock was pretty expensive until recently. And shares in Ubisoft tumbled in September after it announced a deal that sees China's Tencent Holdings raise its stake in the company, a move which analysts say dampens the prospect of a full sale of the French game maker. I think that the stock will keep crumbling but you may have valuable information. As for LDLC, at the current price it becomes interesting. But jpmorgan still has shortsell positions on this stocks. Are they going to buy them back or will it fall further?

Well, I told you that would never touch Orpea again. With a debt burden of 9 billions euros, the firm is almost bankrupt. 
On October the 24th,France's AMF market regulator has requested the suspension of care homes company Orpea's stocks and bonds, the watchdog said on Monday, as Orpea faces legal action over allegations of malpractice at its French retirement homes. The quotation resumed on Octobre the 26th, down sharply by 40%. The new CEO Mr. Guillot explained that it was going to be necessary "to convert part of Orpea's debt into capital and to raise money again in debt and capital from investors"... Logically enough to frighten Investors. On Ctober the 26th, the title ended the session down 33%, back below 10 euros. The following day, the stock ended the session down 15% at 8.32€...The following day, that's to say last Friday, when the stock was down 7% at 7.70€, I decided to buy. I bought again a few hours later at 6.80. It wasn't long before I regretted it. The stock finished down 20% at 6.62€. I was losing 2000 €. Today, the stock collapsed rapidly. At 6 euros, I was losing 3500 €. I was a bit worried, but I decided to go back to bed since I'm not working today. When I woke up, the stock was up 18%: I sold everything and made a capital gain.
Well, this time I won't buy Orpea again. I don't know if there will be a capital increase or not. I was lucky because I sold everything on October the 20th. When the stock price skyrocketed the previous day I had already sold my positions when I understood that something was not clear. In fact, a major player probably pumped up the stock price to sell its positions: it was JP Morgan (at least JP Morgan declared to the AMF that it indirectly crossed downwards, on October 19, 2022, the thresholds of 5% of the capital and voting rights of the company Orpea, this is a weird coincidence). This could be regarded as insider dealing because they clearly knew that the AMF would request the suspension of Orpea's stocks and bonds a few days later. As you can see, to be a top trader, you need to be either lucky or well-informed. With Orpea, I wanted to take advantage of an insane volatility. The current rebound could flop by the end of the session.
I'm looking for a next move. But European markets might go down again as euro zone inflation and GDP data paints bleak picture. I'll keep you posted if I see an opportunity on the markets. This time I will choose a solid company.

(https://i.postimg.cc/K8Y1d5RR/Orpea.png)

I'm going to give you a recommendation about a stock today. And I've chosen LDLC for my next investment.
Groupe LDLC is a French Internet retailer of computer hardware and software. The Company provides PCs and servers, offers installation and technical training, and e-business development consulting services. Groupe LDLC markets to individuals and business around the world.

The stock price recently declined sharply because the latest revenues of the first half of 2022 were disappointing. But the balance sheet is clean, there is no debt, and the firm is well-managed. At the current price, this might be a buying opportunity. I took a first position at 19.90 € with a target price at 22€. At the current price, LDLC offers a yield of 8%. Note that it is a small cap, with medium liquidity.

(https://i.ibb.co/JB3HpNN/ldlc.jpg)

Hi guys.

Latest news from Russia:
1) Army officials enlisted a lot of guys into army. Most of that guys have no real military background (they are managers, IT specialists, salesmans, and so on). They doesn't equipped with any kind of anything, and nobody of them knows what's to do.
2) All prices for foreign goods flew to the sky. Official exchange rate is ~68RUR per 1USD; real, as I can measure by comparing prices of laptops, are about ~150-160RUR per 1USD.
3) Nobody did a thing against that all. I can't understand why.

Quote from: Daniil on November 11, 2022, 12:38 PMLatest news from Russia:
1) Army officials enlisted a lot of guys into army. Most of that guys have no real military background (they are managers, IT specialists, salesmans, and so on). They doesn't equipped with any kind of anything, and nobody of them knows what's to do.
2) All prices for foreign goods flew to the sky. Official exchange rate is ~68RUR per 1USD; real, as I can measure by comparing prices of laptops, are about ~150-160RUR per 1USD.
3) Nobody did a thing against that all. I can't understand why.

Daniil! Scarface and I had been talking about you (your ears were burning) :) . Given the information we have from just about all news outlets, we were very concerned Putin and his thugs might have arrested you and sent you to Tsar Vladimir's meat grinder in Ukraine. We read an article in the Washington post that said even a drunk 55-year old man was arrested and sent to fight.

Of course the Russian people only hear the Putin-controlled news media and have no idea of what's really happening. Trust me, it's bad! Tsar Vladimir has painted himself into a corner and sees no way out. He is in serious trouble. Worst of all, he's taking the Russian people with him. There are reports saying his health is bad. No way to confirm if this is true.

Quote from: humbert on November 14, 2022, 06:18 AMDaniil! Scarface and I had been talking about you (your ears were burning) :) . Given the information we have from just about all news outlets, we were very concerned Putin and his thugs might have arrested you and sent you to Tsar Vladimir's meat grinder in Ukraine. We read an article in the Washington post that said even a drunk 55-year old man was arrested and sent to fight.

Oh, guys, I'm glad that you thought about me. Seriously. In fact, I was close to arrest. I was saved from this only because I'm cripple - after healing appendicite in social russian hospital (many years ago) I have cutted out upper bricks of my abdonminal press and cutted out about a quarter of one my rib. That's why I'm not in trenches. Yet.

But that was close. I've probably got a shiz after that all. I mean, real shizophrenia. :-\

Quote from: Daniil on November 14, 2022, 12:34 PMOh, guys, I'm glad that you thought about me. Seriously. In fact, I was close to arrest. I was saved from this only because I'm cripple - after healing appendicite in social russian hospital (many years ago) I have cutted out upper bricks of my abdonminal press and cutted out about a quarter of one my rib. That's why I'm not in trenches. Yet.
But that was close. I've probably got a shiz after that all. I mean, real shizophrenia. :-\

Of course we care about you! You are a very valuable member of our forum and a very intelligent man who does not deserve to be sent to an unnecessary war started by a twisted despot for no other reason than self gain at the expense of the Russian people. In fact, NO Russian citizen deserves to be forced to fight for a man who can only be compared to Ivan the Terrible or Joseph Stalin. At least when people had to fight for Tsar Alexander I or Stalin, the Russian nation was in severe danger. That's not the case this time.

Did the police actually show up at your home or place of work to take you away? If so, did you have to shows papers or some other documentation to prove you can't fight? Also: how serious is your "disability"? What can't you do that someone else can't?

Is there any way you can escape to Finland? You could apply for political asylum AND receive benefits for disability. Due to Putin's stupidity, Finland is now a de-facto member of NATO with full membership not far off.

Quote from: humbert on November 15, 2022, 04:37 AMDid the police actually show up at your home or place of work to take you away? If so, did you have to shows papers or some other documentation to prove you can't fight? Also: how serious is your "disability"? What can't you do that someone else can?

That isn't works like this. Police hunting people mostly in subways (which I didn't use) or in huge condos at new districts (where I very rarely appears). In most cases military comissariat just send an enlistment blanks to everybody. If you come to them, they just enlisted you, and drop to the train to Ukraine. If you not come to them with this enlistment blank, you're a criminal, and in that case they sending cops to catch you. Cops governs you to the court, and in court prosecutor proclaims an order to send you to the prison for 10 years. And from prison they sent you to war in any case. (But if the cops couldn't catch you - for example, if they couldn't found you - you must pay only a ~50$ fine.)

Cops in that case never show you any papers. Buy our laws, every man in country is an inductee (I don't know, is that a correct word, that means that everyone of us is, potentially, a soldier). If you're too young or too old, or if you're a cripple like me - you're also an inductee, you just woudn't be enlisted first. We all have enlistment books (a kind of a small books, like a passport, where is marked your health class, military speciality, and so on). If government proclaimed a mobilization, we all must obey military comissariat, because it's war. If we don't obey, we're a criminals. Cops don't need any special papers to catch the criminals.

In my case I just didn't get the enlistment paper. Yet. But about a quarter of my colleagues - got them. Most of them hides, some of them (who have enough of money) ran away to Turkey and Kazakhstan before cops started to deny departure of those who are in lists.

About my disabilities - by opinion of medics I have less resistance to heavy physical load. I don't argue with them. ;D

Quote from: humbert on November 15, 2022, 04:37 AMIs there any way you can escape to Finland?

No, there is no way to escape to Finland. Because:
1) Cops deny departure to Finland because it's a "unfriendly country"
2) Finland government deny immigrants from Russia, because we are "unfriendly country"
Best direction is Kazakhstan, Turkey, maybe China and Korea. And I'm working on it.

Daniil,

OK, thanks. I'm slowly beginning to understand the situation.

Is the reason you never got an enlistment paper is because they know you're disabled? Or was it just plain luck that they passed you over?

With respect to leaving the country, here we're seeing on television very long lines of young Russian men at the borders of Georgia and Kazakhstan. It's also been reported that flights from Moscow to Turkey or Serbia (the only countries still flying to Russia) cost about $9,000 a seat. It's unbelievable! You must get out now! If sent to the front, do everything possible to surrender to the Urkainians. I know it's difficult and carries a death sentence, but dying in battle is probably worse. The death toll is now close to 75,000.

How Putin can send untrained, unmotivated men to the front and somehow expect to win is beyond my comprehension. The man is as deranged as Hitler during his last days in power. While certainly NATO is doing plenty to help Ukraine, they are by no means their largest arms supplier. It is Russia who is supplying Ukraine with most of their weapons. Often expensive, unused weapons are simply abandoned by soldiers who retreat on foot because have no interest in fighting. Naturally this is not reported in the Putin-controlled news media.

Tonight I will unveil my latest trade on the market: I decided to invest 30000€ in a leveraged inverse tracker on the cac40. If the market is going down I will sell this position. If the market is going up, I will wait or double the position.
If you are an aggressive trader, I recommend shorting the markets on the current levels. At least, I recommend reducing stock holdings.

Quote from: humbert on November 16, 2022, 05:42 AMIs the reason you never got an enlistment paper is because they know you're disabled? Or was it just plain luck that they passed you over?

Probably, both. Because I know that some of disabled guys were enlisted.

Quote from: humbert on November 16, 2022, 05:42 AMIt's also been reported that flights from Moscow to Turkey or Serbia (the only countries still flying to Russia) cost about $9,000 a seat. It's unbelievable! You must get out now!

Well, flights in Russia were always overpriced. I fly last time in my deep childhood, in USSR era. Air travel isn't a solution now, the car is our best choice.

Quote from: humbert on November 16, 2022, 05:42 AMIf sent to the front, do everything possible to surrender to the Urkainians. I know it's difficult and carries a death sentence, but dying in battle is probably worse.

That's also not the way. AFAIK, most of casualties is from artillery and missile systems, war is going without CQB, where you can surrender to a person. You can't bargain with a missile. If things goes so far, I would seek the solution by situation.

Tonight, I'm going to talk about the Ubisoft stock.


The game "Mario + Rabbids - Sparks of Hope" was released as planned on October 20. But the Covid crisis and the phenomenon of the "great resignation " have caused production delays throughout the video game industry.

(https://i.ibb.co/y67Vt4c/Ubisoft.webp)


The share price fall now seems exaggerated given the quality of the group's assets and a speculative dimension that could resurface.

Game over! On September the 7th, the video game publisher's stock collapsed by more than 17%. It is the black screen for all those who had bet that Tencent, the world leader in the sector, would launch a public offer (OPA) on the French group.The hope of reaping a nice capital gain has faded to give way to disappointment. However, the Chinese group is there. But the merger with Ubisoft took an unexpected form.

(https://i.ibb.co/7VHVC7T/Ubisoft.jpg)

Tencent only got a minority stake of 49.9%, with 5% of the voting rights in Guillemot Brothers Limited, the British holding company of the Guillemot brothers, the largest shareholder of Ubisoft with 13.6% of the capital and 17, 6% of voting rights. Based on the funds provided by Tencent, the implicit value of Ubisoft comes to 80 euros per share.
But on the stock market, the stock takes the opposite path and plunges towards 25.50 euros where it seems to have found a technical support.


The strategy of the group
Founded in 1986 in Brittany by the five Guillemot brothers, Ubisoft has become a multinational in the entertainment sector with 20,000 employees and 45 creation and development centers around the world.
The latest one opened in Canada, at the end of 2021, and was accompanied by the announcement of an investment plan of 650 million by 2030. The whole generates a turnover of 2.1 billion euros (down 4.4% over one year) and is worth more than 3.5 billion euros on the stock market.
In a global industry that now weighs more than 200 billion euros, the French nugget has been able to impose its style thanks to its successful brands, such as Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, Tom Clancy or Watch Dogs as well as its proprietary technologies (Anvil and Snowdrop graphics engines and Scalar cloud native technology). Enough to arouse the interest of its major competitors.
But operationally, the company is exposed to significant execution risks, sometimes causing delays in the release of new games. Thus, last July, Ubisoft revised its net sales forecast downwards due to the one-year delay of two major titles in its catalog: Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora and Assassin's Creed Mirage.
The publisher can count on the arrival on the market of Mario + The Rabbids: Sparks of Hope and on the signing of a license for the development of its mobile games.


Its valuation
Reassured by the company's forecasts, brokers such as UBS, Berenberg or Morgan Stanley keep a buy rating on the stock, with a price target ranging from 48 to 55 euros. Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation on Ubisoft, which it carries from "sell" to "neutral", but with a price target reduced from 41 to 37 euros.
Beyond the results, analysts appreciate a more balanced return/risk profile, with a stock that is now traded on the basis of a discount of 26% compared to the rest of the sector, against a historical discount of 9%.
Finally, the presence of the Chinese group Tencent in the capital of Ubisoft does not completely close the door to a competing offer. Especially since the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard is still not finalized. Thus, the speculative dimension of the stock could soon reappear.

I invested today in Ubisoft at the price of 25.40 €

Quote from: Daniil on November 21, 2022, 12:49 PMWell, flights in Russia were always overpriced. I fly last time in my deep childhood, in USSR era. Air travel isn't a solution now, the car is our best choice.

I'm looking at the map and unfortunately Сaнкт Петербург is very far north. To drive from there to Georgia or Khazakstan will take forever assuming it's even possible. Ukraine itself is closer.

Quote from: Daniil on November 21, 2022, 12:49 PMThat's also not the way. AFAIK, most of casualties is from artillery and missile systems, war is going without CQB, where you can surrender to a person. You can't bargain with a missile. If things goes so far, I would seek the solution by situation.

Do you have access to news agencies in the UK. If so, check out https://metro.co.uk/2022/09/16/ukrainians-giving-russians-secret-surrender-cards-to-help-them-escape-17388513. This article is dated 06/09/2022. If you can't access it then try Google Images and type "Ukrainian surrender card". There are surrender instructions and even a phone number to call. Ukrainians are mad only at pro-Putin militants who pillage their country and harm their people. They have compassion for Russian soldiers who are against the war and want to give themselves up. They are seen as victims, not perpetrators. Naturally doing this will not be easy and is the very last resort. Try to hide or get out so you won't even need to try to call Zelensky.

Quote from: humbert on November 22, 2022, 05:53 AMI'm looking at the map and unfortunately Сaнкт Петербург is very far north. To drive from there to Georgia or Khazakstan will take forever assuming it's even possible. Ukraine itself is closer.

It's Russia, mr. Humbert, here is no short or straight ways.

Quote from: humbert on November 22, 2022, 05:53 AMDo you have access to news agencies in the UK. If so, check out https://metro.co.uk/2022/09/16/ukrainians-giving-russians-secret-surrender-cards-to-help-them-escape-17388513. This article is dated 06/09/2022. If you can't access it then try Google Images and type "Ukrainian surrender card". There are surrender instructions and even a phone number to call. Ukrainians are mad only at pro-Putin militants who pillage their country and harm their people. They have compassion for Russian soldiers who are against the war and want to give themselves up. They are seen as victims, not perpetrators. Naturally doing this will not be easy and is the very last resort. Try to hide or get out so you won't even need to try to call Zelensky.

Thank you very much. That may be useful thing. By the way, it's very interesting way how they "restrict" information now. Sites for news agencies from UK are totally not restricted if you get there directly. But in russian news we only hearing about how LGBTQ+ humiliating europeans and how many times Biden lost consciousness at last briefing. Looks like this is on what modern propaganda basing - common people can not imagine something which is not in news. ;D

Quote from: Daniil on November 22, 2022, 02:03 PMThank you very much. That may be useful thing. By the way, it's very interesting way how they "restrict" information now. Sites for news agencies from UK are totally not restricted if you get there directly. But in russian news we only hearing about how LGBTQ+ humiliating europeans and how many times Biden lost consciousness at last briefing. Looks like this is on what modern propaganda basing - common people can not imagine something which is not in news. ;D

Propagandists since the beginnning of time have used the same scheme as Joseph Goebbels -- propaganda is simple so the masses can understand it, and with endless repetition. If anything, he proved that any lie when repeated again and again will be believed. This is why Hitler and Putin both made it impossible to listen to the foreign press - to make sure nobody knows the truth and/or questions their propaganda. This is so effective that even Hitler and Stalin actually believed their own propaganda! Naturally the news items being reported by Putin (Biden & LGBQT) are total lies. Putin is probably gay himself and hates that about him. Similarly, there's every reason to believe Hitler was ¼ Jewish.

Were you able to see a picture of the surrender card on Google Images? If not, let me know and I will post a copy here on the forum so you can see what Putin doesn't want you to know.

Quote from: humbert on November 23, 2022, 06:05 AMWere you able to see a picture of the surrender card on Google Images? If not, let me know and I will post a copy here on the forum so you can see what Putin doesn't want you to know.

Yes, I found it, and already copied it. Thank you very much for the information, it could be useful.

Quote from: Daniil on November 24, 2022, 12:26 PM

Quote from: humbert on November 23, 2022, 06:05 AMWere you able to see a picture of the surrender card on Google Images? If not, let me know and I will post a copy here on the forum so you can see what Putin doesn't want you to know.

Yes, I found it, and already copied it. Thank you very much for the information, it could be useful.

Please ensure you have a way to contact people without your own phone as well a little paper of most important friends/family numbers.
Be aware that they might be searching your phone and papers, so if you have the 'give up' number they might get on bad terms with you. For your own safety, please practice the number in before hand so you do not need a paper or your own phone for it. If you plan on needing to use it.


The last few days I've been texting with a penpal in China, and even if she has a lot of outside news from screenshots etc she does not have the full picture due to network/news blockages.

As I understand it, she is under the influence that Ukraine attacked russia, provoking the war. She was very surprised when I told the story that last weekend I had ukrainians in Ireland come up to me and ask for help. This was as I was doing my laundry, because they hadnt found a place to live and wanted help searching. She didnt think that much people at all had fled Ukraine.


Even though there is less ukrainians now in my area, theres still a good chunk of them. Im assuming they're starting to find places to stay or live rather than being accomodated in hotels and other short term accomodations.
My experience so far has been very good with the ukrainians here. Especially if you compare it to immigrants/refugees from other places of the world.
Even though most of them want to go back, they are not intentionally trashing the place.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on November 25, 2022, 01:31 PMPlease ensure you have a way to contact people without your own phone as well a little paper of most important friends/family numbers.
Be aware that they might be searching your phone and papers, so if you have the 'give up' number they might get on bad terms with you. For your own safety, please practice the number in before hand so you do not need a paper or your own phone for it. If you plan on needing to use it.

They just take all and any phones and papers from enlisted. So if you are enlisted you have no good way to contact anybody. Only way to get communication is if your relatives could give you a phone after you departured to the training camp (if the camp is near your city and guards are bribed). So best way to keep any info is your memory.

Quote from: Shadow.97 on November 25, 2022, 01:31 PMThe last few days I've been texting with a penpal in China, and even if she has a lot of outside news from screenshots etc she does not have the full picture due to network/news blockages.

As I understand it, she is under the influence that Ukraine attacked russia, provoking the war. She was very surprised when I told the story that last weekend I had ukrainians in Ireland come up to me and ask for help. This was as I was doing my laundry, because they hadnt found a place to live and wanted help searching. She didnt think that much people at all had fled Ukraine.

AFAIK, in China people aren't care about anything going around the China. Because there is alot of them, and they have enough of their internal problems.

Quote from: Daniil on November 25, 2022, 02:58 PMThey just take all and any phones and papers from enlisted. So if you are enlisted you have no good way to contact anybody. Only way to get communication is if your relatives could give you a phone after you departured to the training camp (if the camp is near your city and guards are bribed). So best way to keep any info is your memory.

From the information we have a critical reason Putin's army is doing so badly is rampant corruption at ever level. If Putin treats people like dirt, pays them next to nothing, and shows no respect at all, what else can you expect? HE is the one responsible for this problem, not the people of Russia. They are just victims.

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.


A little crash took place yesterday as U.S. stock indexes closed sharply lower on Thursday, with each of the major averages suffering their biggest daily percentage drop in weeks, as fears intensified that the Federal Reserve's battle against inflation using aggressive interest rate hikes could lead to a recession.

The U.S. central bank hiked rates by 50 basis points (bps) on Wednesday as was widely expected, downsizing from the consecutive 75 bps hikes at its prior four meetings, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned recent signs of inflation were not enough to convince Fed the battle against rising prices had been won.

The Fed projected continued rate hikes to above 5% in 2023, a level not seen since a steep economic downturn in 2007.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.25%, to 33,202 ; the S&P 500 lost 2.49%, to 3,895 ; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.23%, to 10,810

In France, the CAC 40 declined 3.09% to 6520 to hit a new 1-month low, while the SBF 120 index lost 2.95%. Note that I'm expecting the cac 40 to go below 6400 before investing again in the market. Today, the cac 40 is declining 1.20% to 6440 points.

The Atos share keeps falling. I talked about it a few months ago.
I still advise against buying it.
(https://i.ibb.co/8BwLdGp/Atos.jpg)

Hello, friends!

I must report to you that I'm (yet) in good health (except mentally - my mind blown up multiple times and I'm totally mental now). But situation here inside Russia slowly going to hell. I have compared prices for common goods (bicycles, electronics, clothes, cars) now and which was 10 years ago. And, prices grown 10 (f*cking TEN!!) times. And they grown three times during previous year.

Internal political situation stable - SNAFU. Putin's politics became purely fascist. Orthodoxal obscurantism, mixed with slavic paganism, slowly replacing common propaganda. Putinism ideologists and futurologists seriously talking about building neo-feodalistic system with inverted lending (in meaning lending system in medieval sence, with building eco-villages for priviledged and enslaving everyone else in big industrial cities). This s*it slowly leaking from the internet even into official TV channels.

News from outside world are also "twisted". In internet they didn't block foreign news sources, but russian news sources generates so many articles that any western news are loosing in that flow. On TV everything as before - wild and rageous propaganda.

As far as I understand, they want to make from Russia something like Iran.

Now I'm ashamed to be russian.

I'm working hard on getting out of here.

Hi Daniil,

According to you:

Quote from: Daniil on February 25, 2023, 10:25 AMAs far as I understand, they want to make from Russia something like Iran.

The Russian and Iranian regimes are getting closer in the war they are waging indeed, one against Ukraine, the other against its own people, where cruelty and violence are adorned with identity and religious alibis. But they also differ from each other since Iran is a theocracy and Russia seems to be something between a republic and a dictatorship (due to its propaganda notably).
Even before the war in Ukraine I remember that the channel RT France - RT for Russian today - (which has been closed in France and its French journalists laid off), was obviously a propaganda tool for the regime. It became worse after February 2022 when its guests were stating that the economy of Russia was booming (despite the international sanctions) and that the war in Ukraine was legitimate due to the threat posed by Ukraine for the whole region and the world. It seems that its guests were carefully selected for their approval of the Russian policy.
To my knowledge, there is no similar media outlet for Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Palestine, praising the decisions of its leader, in France.

Quote from: Daniil on February 25, 2023, 10:25 AMNow I'm ashamed to be russian.

I don't think you need to be ashamed.
Russia is the largest country in the world, and present-day Russia is the result of a unique history and geography. If the 20th century made it a superpower during the Cold War era, the retraction of its space at the same time as its power has sown confusion in the national imagination. This probably explains why Vladimir Putin's Russia, while having the desire to seduce the world (the 2014 Sochi Olympics for instance), does not hesitate to use force (Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea) and gives in to authoritarian temptation (control of the media, restriction of freedoms), as in the time of the Soviet model.

Note that I have several books about Russia and its history. you probably know some of them:
(https://i.ibb.co/J3YbPcX/20230225-095332.jpg)

Quote from: Daniil on February 25, 2023, 10:25 AMI'm working hard on getting out of here.

Maybe the problem is not to get out but the right question is: is there a better place for you. If you don't speak another language fluently, it can be hard to relocate abroad (let's say you want to go to Egypt, your Russian and English skills won't be of any use there). If you can have a normal life in Russia, despite inflation and political risk (which is not unique to Russia) then I would advise you to stay where you are.

Quote from: scarface on February 25, 2023, 11:55 AMThe Russian and Iranian regimes are getting closer in the war they are waging indeed, one against Ukraine, the other against its own people, where cruelty and violence are adorned with identity and religious alibis. But they also differ from each other since Iran is a theocracy and Russia seems to be something between a republic and a dictatorship (due to its propaganda notably).

This is how it's looking from outside, where you are not endept into local news. But when you every day hear that ...
- parliament made a law forced us never use foreign words in official documentation (yes, now in Russia, for computer documentation, we must not use word, for example, "interface". They didn't found a correct word yet. But we with colleagues laughed that it could be "междумордие" - literally "inter-snout").
- public organization, consists from orthodoxal christian mothers, forcing parliament to make a law denying Disney cartoons and anime, because it's a satanic cartoons, forcing youngs to became a homosexualists and made suicides.
- mercenary orgainzation owner, who is slavic paganist, forbids to speak the governors of a big cities in Russia because they are for "western values" (i.e., they are against spents for that war "special operation").
- and so on and so on...
... in that case you start to understand that that's not a dictatorship and that's not about non-democracy laws, the trouble is MUCH worse!

Quote from: scarface on February 25, 2023, 11:55 AMI have several books about Russia and its history. you probably know some of them

From this 3 I heared only about G.Welter's book, but I didn't read it. I read a lot of russian books about our history - and because of this I have no doubts that I must get away from here.

Quote from: scarface on February 25, 2023, 11:55 AMMaybe the problem is not to get out but the right question is: is there a better place for you. ... If you can have a normal life in Russia, despite inflation and political risk (which is not unique to Russia) then I would advise you to stay where you are.

Thank you, friend, I'd get your advice in mind.

Quote from: Daniil on February 25, 2023, 01:58 PM- public organization, consists of orthodox christian mothers, forcing parliament to make a law denying Disney cartoons and anime

The Russian leaders probably watched this clip (available in the best clips topic - in French with English subtitles available, just click on this option in the settings.) and found that the representatives of Disney didn't seem serious enough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zm8pz4al_sY
(https://i.ibb.co/XY4htLL/starwars.jpg)

They chose the representatives of the Lord Jesus instead...In Iran they didn't choose Obi-Wan Kenobi either.
It's amazing how this parody can actually apply to the real world.

Quote from: Daniil on February 25, 2023, 01:58 PMFrom this 3 I heared only about G.Welter's book, but I didn't read it.

It's a well-known expert of Russia indeed. To be honest with you, I didn't read these books either. They belonged to my father.

Hello Daniil: I just read all these posts. I'm glad you're still alive and well.

In order to get out of Russia the first thing you must decide on is where to go. It's also important how you will survive once you get there. Do you have family outside Russia? If so, you might start there.

I must disagree with Scarface with respect to staying where you are. It's one thing to survive inflation and bad times. It quite another to live with the spectre of being arrested and sent to the front lines and any moment. Clearly things are bad and getting worse both politically and economically. The country is almost unlivable.

I agree you should never be ashamed to be Russian. Yours is a huge country full of natural resources. It's just that for over 1000 years Russia has been plagued by one bad government after another. None of this is your fault nor that of the Russian people who have taken the brunt of the suffering.

Quote from: scarface on February 25, 2023, 02:40 PMThey chose the representatives of the Lord Jesus instead...In Iran they didn't choose Obi-Wan Kenobi either.
It's amazing how this parody can actually apply to the real world.

Yep, it's funny.
Actually, they says (in TV propaganda) that religion is a way of joining people together. But in practice now it's a way of orthodox priests to become more rich. 'cause churches now are groadly subsidised by government.

BTW, thanks to fix my misspelling. For russian-speakers English preposition (pretext?) is difficult, because they are using in different way than in russian. I'll tell about this in topic about languages. :)

Quote from: scarface on February 25, 2023, 02:40 PMIt's a well-known expert of Russia indeed.

Yeah, I know that. I saw this book (translated) in library. BTW, probably it'd be forbidden soon - there is a rumor that government agents already sent to libraries and to a book stores orders, forbidding to buy new books of different authors (and not only Orwell's '1984' and Zamyatin's 'We', but also Rowling's 'Harry Potter' and manga comics).

Quote from: humbert on February 27, 2023, 06:47 AMIn order to get out of Russia the first thing you must decide on is where to go. It's also important how you will survive once you get there. Do you have family outside Russia? If so, you might start there.

I already decided where I should go. I'd prefer not to talk about destination yet, i.e., situation changing rapidly and drastically, and plans could change. Also, I suspects that russian search bots also crawling this forum, so I'd prefer not to say anything personalizing me before I get out.

Quote from: Daniil on February 28, 2023, 10:27 AM

Quote from: scarface on February 25, 2023, 02:40 PMThey chose the representatives of the Lord Jesus instead...In Iran they didn't choose Obi-Wan Kenobi either.
It's amazing how this parody can actually apply to the real world.

Yep, it's funny.
Actually, they says (in TV propaganda) that religion is a way of joining people together. But in practice now it's a way of orthodox priests to become more rich. 'cause churches now are groadly subsidised by government.

BTW, thanks to fix my misspelling. For russian-speakers English preposition (pretext?) is difficult, because they are using in different way than in russian. I'll tell about this in topic about languages. :)

Quote from: scarface on February 25, 2023, 02:40 PMIt's a well-known expert of Russia indeed.

Yeah, I know that. I saw this book (translated) in library. BTW, probably it'd be forbidden soon - there is a rumor that government agents already sent to libraries and to a book stores orders, forbidding to buy new books of different authors (and not only Orwell's '1984' and Zamyatin's 'We', but also Rowling's 'Harry Potter' and manga comics).

Quote from: humbert on February 27, 2023, 06:47 AMIn order to get out of Russia the first thing you must decide on is where to go. It's also important how you will survive once you get there. Do you have family outside Russia? If so, you might start there.

I already decided where I should go. I'd prefer not to talk about destination yet, i.e., situation changing rapidly and drastically, and plans could change. Also, I suspects that russian search bots also crawling this forum, so I'd prefer not to say anything personalizing me before I get out.

Well, once again, this is quite an interesting answer from Daniil and I'm preparing an adequate response.

Quote from: Daniil on February 28, 2023, 10:27 AMActually, they says (in TV propaganda) that religion is a way of joining people together. But in practice now it's a way of orthodox priests to become more rich. 'cause churches now are groadly subsidised by government.

I totally agree! Organized religion is the world's biggest scam. That's why I am an atheist.

Quote from: Daniil on February 28, 2023, 10:27 AMI already decided where I should go. I'd prefer not to talk about destination yet, i.e., situation changing rapidly and drastically, and plans could change. Also, I suspects that russian search bots also crawling this forum, so I'd prefer not to say anything personalizing me before I get out.

Totally understandable!! I also strongly agree that, for you, leaving Russia is the very last resort. You'll proceed with your plans only when everything else has failed. Good luck to you and please keep us informed. You're part of our family.

With respect to this idea of banning books from libraries and bookstores, it seems Putin never heard of the internet. Even a tightly controlled internet can be full of holes.

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.
There is a crash on the European markets. The cac 40 is now down 2.18% at 6984 points.

(https://i.ibb.co/VVrXF0M/bourso.jpg)

Note that I invested in Société Générale at 20.20€ this morning (a few minutes after the market order was filled it turned out to be a a bad investment, but since this stock is volatile, it's not a a matter of concern). I put a sell order at 20.80 €. Note that I have bearish positions too, and at this point I stay bearish on the markets: If the overall markets goes down, this is good. With the latest rate hikes, I wouldn't be surprised if the Dow Jones and the cac 40 were back to respectively 30 000 and 6500 points.
(https://i.ibb.co/G5nyF8r/socgen.jpg)

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.
Global markets and the cac 40 are down today.
But I see more bearishness ahead.

(https://i.ibb.co/09NZq1s/cac40.png)

I'm posting this here because there was previous discussion of Ukraine and Putin.

Have you read today's (24/08/2023) news? Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner who tried to march on Moscow a few months ago, died in a plane crash. Coincidence? No way! I'll bet borrowed money Putin had him killed. This is his modus operandi. He poisons his enemies or kills them in plane crashes then sits back and says he's got nothing to do with it.

As any despot knows, in order to survive you have to follow Niccolo Machiavelli's advice to the letter. History teaches us that dictators who don't will be promptly out the door. There is no way you can let a guy who tried to forcibly overthrow you to simply leave for Belarus (a Putin client state) and live there in peace. You must destroy every trace of your enemies -- or they'll do it to you.