Maher's Digital World

Off Topic Discussion => Chit Chat => Topic started by: scarface on February 26, 2015, 12:28 PM

Title: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 26, 2015, 12:28 PM
Tonight, I'm going to talk about the financial markets.
I'm pasting an article released yesterday which highlights the risks about investments in stocks today:
There is overwhelming evidence that the next stock market crash could strike any day now, and a growing number of investors are turning to a noted economist to prepare for the “unthinkable.”

The message is clear: Despite the Dow hitting pre-crash highs, companies reporting positive earnings, and the financial media saying we are looking at the “beginning of a new bull market,” the stock market is on the verge of another historic collapse.

The evidence is in a group of charts released by some of the biggest names on Wall Street.
Individually, these charts may not mean much. But taken collectively, they are simply too much for any investor to ignore.

The first chart shows that the annual S&P 500 consensus earnings-per-share is expected to come in much lower than originally thought. Despite the warning sign of falling earnings, the S&P continues to climb.
-Here is the most recent chart I found to illustrate this-
The eps have been revised downards recently, which shows that a recession could come close.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11/20141108_ERNs3.jpg)


The second chart shows that stocks are currently very expensive compared to their 10-year average. While stocks typically have a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, they now sit at a ratio closer to 23. That means stocks are priced 53% higher than their 10-year average, which should worry any investor.
-The most recent figures show that the per of the sp500 is now standing at a whopping 27...-
(http://www.newsmax.com/newsmax/files/3b/3be7cf45-7373-42f7-8764-0b4d348ccfe0.jpg)

The third chart shows that investors are extremely bullish on the market right now. The reading is nearing a 10-year high, and most of us know from experience what happens when market sentiment is too far one way or the other; a snapback occurs. If the “herd” is this bullish, it’s generally a good idea to be very cautious.
(http://www.newsmax.com/newsmax/files/f8/f87396fa-6535-4d95-8d0a-742e0df80b89.jpg)

The fourth chart shows that the VIX, or volatility index, is near a historic low. As the markets have rebounded over the last few years, investors have become complacent. They have priced nearly all risk out of the market, and it will only take one scary event to send volatility higher and investors fleeing the markets.

And finally, the fifth chart shows that the last two times the market climbed this high, a severe correction took place. The first two advances were over 100%, and then followed by a crash of roughly 50%. With the latest rally topping 100%, it is very likely that the market is setting up for another drastic correction.

With the evidence of a market crash growing every day, many investors have turned to a noted economist for a help.
Robert Wiedemer, who along with a team of economists correctly predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States during the “Great Recession,” recently recorded a controversial interview in which he predicts that the coming market crash will result in a 90% stock market drop, 50% unemployment, and 100% annual inflation starting this year.

Another agency is announcing the same thing. 1929 was nearly one century ago. However in the world in finance, the black Thursday is still a ghost, a shadow, a threat around the corner. Nobody had seen it coming except a small agency that had foreseen that everything was bound to collapse. His founder, Jerome Levy, had sold all his stocks on month before the crash, avoiding the bankruptcy. In 2007, this same agency had foreseen the sub-prime crisis.
When that same agency is foreseeing a new crisis in 2015, the world should be scared, but it's not the case. This agency, Jerome Levy Forecasting center, is not a big firm, but it's recognized in the whole world as particularly talented to foresee the worst events.
For 2015, they are announcing a tough recession in the US. Indeed, it's investing more and more in foreign markets, even though their growth is dramatically slowing. A paradox which can seem absurd for a country which has been severally struck by the 2008 crisis.
More prosaically, Europe is trying desperately not to drown because the governments of the member countries are not bold enough to do the necessary reforms.
For Levy, even if this goes against all the rhetoric we are hearing these days, this prognosis could come true.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on April 20, 2015, 03:37 PM
I'm going to talk about the BSE Sensex, the index of Bombay in India, maybe my opinion can interest those who come from Asia and it seems they are numerous on the forum.
Here is a chart.
(https://i.ibb.co/fv2d0bY/394659sensex.png)

Today there has been a sharp decline, the Sensex losing 555 points, as disappointing corporate earnings seems to be keeping investors nervous. The Sensex lost 1,160 points in the last four trading sessions as foreign funds turned to heavy selling in frontline stocks as more FPIs received notices from tax authorities on minimum alternative tax (MAT).

Personally I think that there could be a bubble in Asia. I read that Chinese people not able to read were opening accounts to buy stocks...There is euphoria, but valuations are becoming tight.
The graph of the Sensex is also showing some signs of bubble. So the correction could continue if corporate earnings are bad. I don't know if there is a bubble in India but while it was standing between 16000 and 18000 in 2012 and 2013, it's now standing at 27000...
Clearly, I think that the American markets are expensive. There are political problems in Europe, and a bubble in China.
I think caution is needed and I'm expecting a fall of several markets sometime during the second half of 2015.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/31/chinas-stock-market-sure-looks-like-a-bubble/
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on April 23, 2015, 03:07 AM
I was right about the markets. They are crumbling today, once again.
www.boursorama.com/bourse/
I still have significant bearish positions.
In this old video, the trader Delamarche was foreseeing a cac40 at 2000 points. And his prophecy could come true.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnL3_kj9EI
The situation in Greece, but also the war in Ukraine, and the invasion of the Islamists in Lybia bode ill for the future. You have to be prepared. Those who are "genocided" are the ones who are "genocidable". You are warned.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 11, 2015, 09:06 PM
Today, I'm going to make a speech, giving you a few elements since I'm not the only one predicting an upcoming crash.
The upward revisions of European growth should not hide uncertainties. In case of crash, public authorities (governments and central banks) have already played their last cards. Economist Marc Touati predicted that The world economy is going to collapse.

(http://i.f1g.fr/media/ext/orig/www.lefigaro.fr/medias/2013/05/30/PHO7ec81e1a-c93c-11e2-ae6b-19b6609108d6-805x453.jpg)

For now, all is well! Everything's even better, according to some. And for good reason: according to the IMF, the ECB and many economic research institutes, the European Commission raised its growth forecasts for the euro-zone and for France in 2015. Beautiful!

But then, as we have often shown, consensus is very often wrong. That’s when everyone thinks the same thing that we should begin to worry. And that, especially when the forecasts of the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission are converging. It would be useful, for example, to recall that in 2007 and early 2008, these three institutions stressed that Euroland's economy was doing wonders and provided steady growth for 2008-2009, accompanied by high inflation. This is also partly because of this announced dynamism that the ECB raised its key interest rates in late 2007 and until July 2008. Better, in most of its reports since 2006, the European Commission and the IMF kept praising the economic success of Spain, Portugal and Greece!

Obviously, it would be difficult to do worse. That is what happened when in 2011 these institutions announced the strong upturn in growth in the euro area, the ECB even matching words with action by increasing twice its refi rate. If the past is dead and does not serve much of rubbing salt in a still open wound, these forecast errors nonetheless recall that the newest results of the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission must be taken very carefully.
The latest survey data, including purchasing managers’ indexes, the IFO institute, INSEE, but also the European Commission, are also clear: business outlook is already down. Consequently, After good growth through the first quarters, a marked slowdown or even a decline of the GDP is expected to occur in the euro area and in particular in France in the second quarter.

But that's not all, because if investors and the economic and financial world as a whole are accustomed to economic weakness in the euro area, they are frightened by the looming slowdown in the US and China. In this context, and as has already begun for ten days, financial markets could experience multiple storms, preceding a crash that would break out by next fall.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 14, 2015, 02:20 AM
Today the European stocks exchanges are crumbling again, after a fall yesterday.
With the rise in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro/dollar, I think this movement is likely to continue.
My targets are bearish and very clear: 13000 for the dow jones, 8000 for the dax and 3500 for the cac40.
http://www.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

Don' forget that a few years ago Delamarche had a target at 2000 for the cac40.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnL3_kj9EI
(http://www.lecontrarien.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/olivier-delamarche.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Shadow.97 on May 14, 2015, 11:05 AM
Today the European stocks exchanges are crumbling again, after a fall yesterday.
With the rise in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro/dollar, I think this movement is likely to continue.
My targets are bearish and very clear: 13000 for the dow jones, 8000 for the dax and 3500 for the cac40.
http://www.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

Don' forget that a few years ago Delamarche had a target at 2000 for the cac40.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnL3_kj9EI
(http://www.lecontrarien.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/olivier-delamarche.jpg)
I have a lot of money put into stocks. Is the best thing just to put the money into a savings account instead?
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 14, 2015, 05:02 PM
Quote
I have a lot of money put into stocks. Is the best thing just to put the money into a savings account instead?
It depends if you have gains or not. It also depends on the markets. A quick look at the SSE shows a 20% increase over one year.
(https://i.ibb.co/LRWLJhL/634826omx.png)
Personally I think would be wise to sell, at least some of them if not all.
The uptrend in global equities has been mainly due to liquidity injections, but on the other side, I'm rather pessimistic on the world economy and the rise in oil prices and the rate increase could be a harbinger for a significant correction in the months to come.
Well today Ive been wrong since the markets closed higher, but the news about Greece or the slowdown of the US economy remains disquieting.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on May 15, 2015, 03:32 PM
The party started: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/15/greece-pays-public-sector-wages-economic-crisis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11608333/Greece-avoids-domestic-default-as-cash-scramble-gets-desperate.html

There is no consensus of the public opinion as to what reforms must be made. The political leadership of the country is struggling to find a politically viable solution, with no success so far. Cash outflow from banks rises. The elite is unwilling to leave the eurozone but on the same time too many people (3.5 million + their families) are unwilling to accept the imposed reforms. A chaotic scenario is quietly unfolding.

On a side note, Turkish helicopters and planes are increasingly violating the Greek airspace over the Aegean. This might be an additional source of trouble in case of a financial collapse; geopolitical destabilization of the entire area is very likely. Thus I believe there will be a serious turmoil in the short run, which might become important even on a global scale.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 04, 2015, 06:42 PM
Getting ready to default... We have some T-bills to pay up as well on June 12th... Let's remember: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/24/greek-debts-what-does-it-owe-when-will-the-money-run-out
No one talks about it. Last time we took money from Greek embassies to stay afloat. Now what? It will take at least 2 weeks to reach a deal with creditors to pay up our older debts.

Today this happened:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/05/business/international/greece-debt-talks-ecb-imf-european-commission.html?_r=0

Unsurprisingly (at least for me), the Greek PM chose not to pay the IMF at this moment. We're running out of money here. I'm not so well informed to predict an exact default date, however.

In the meanwhile, most Greek people are confident that "a credit event will not happen, they won't let it happen". At the same time, the political leadership is obsessed with maintaining pensions and salaries of the official sector at a rather high level, and insists to stress the economy with high taxes. Everyone has become absurd here.

Staying in the eurosystem has not been viable for Greece since 2010. It was forced to stay so that other European banks could get rid of greek assets. Now that most of them are protected enough, they will not care about a default at all.

Don't expect any politician to save the greek economy. They are all corrupt and incapable of handling such a situation. Moreover, we Greeks have a tendency to fight against each other for any reason you can think, and in the case of default, it will be impossible to agree on what to do next.

PS @scarface Interested in your latest ISO.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 05, 2015, 03:08 AM
For Greece, let's hope there will be a miracle.

For the iso, lets wait for next tuesday.
As I said I also integrated every c++ redistributable packs. They are often needed. Maher might be interested for his iso.
I will also provide the forum with a vb script, which is activating microsoft update (instead of wu) automatically after a double click. Unfortunately, I found no way to integrate it.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 13, 2015, 01:38 PM
At the moment, we have seen that the stocks markets continue to be unsettled during this turbulent period. Indeed, there still is a stalemate about the Greek issue, there has been no agreement between Tsipras and his creditros, and a Grexit becomes possible. What's more, the long-term bond yields in Europe have increased quickly, and they represent a sword of Damocles for growth.

The impact of a Grexit on the markets would be probably significant. During an interview between the trader Olivier Delamarche and the manager Malik Haddouk, the latter is explaing that it would provoke a massive withdrawal of investments, and the decrease of the European markets could reach 20%.
http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/video/olivier-delamarche-vs-malik-haddouk-22-quel-serait-l-impact-d-un-grexit-sur-l-union-europeenne-0806-549683.html

However, Woud a Grexit be a bad thing, while 52% of Greeks are in favour of a exiting the euro? Clearly, it could be an advantageous alternative for Greece, since a devalued currency would boost tourism, one of the only profitable sectors in Greece.

(https://i.ibb.co/NCN9xPD/Athens-03.jpg)


Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 14, 2015, 01:16 PM
Thanks for the upload scarface. I'll test it when I have some free time.

Ready for grexit. Negotiations in Brussels failed tonight. This Monday will be most stressful for Greek banks. Unless the goverment decides to impose capital controls (they don't want to do it at all) there will be a bank failure in the next days.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 15, 2015, 02:57 AM
Harkaz is right, time is running out for Greece, and Im afraid there might be no good solution.
The trend is still bearish on the financial markets. I have an objective situated at 10800 on the dax, but it could go much lower, depending on the future events.

There was a traffic jam this morning at the porte d'Asnières. There were so many motorcycles that they were using the sidewalk to sneak in. Paris is not really the garden of Eden where you would like to be. Probably harkaz is better off in Greece, swimming off the coast of Athens
(http://i.imgur.com/gyR3OKa.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 15, 2015, 12:16 PM
Harkaz warned us about Greece's bailout stalemate on Sunday evening.
What's more, Italian and Spanish bonds dropped today, pushing the extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year securities over German debt to the most since October.
(http://assets.bwbx.io/images/ijrkKQxCegF0/v1/-1x-1.png)

Consequently we have seen stocks crumbling in Europe, the dax losing 1.89% and the Athens stocks exchange plummeting by 4.68%.

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on June 15, 2015, 09:47 PM
In a way Greek governments are responsible for the situation that exists over there.  It seems they don't understand the basic notion that you cannot make 1€ and spend 2€. Now they have to bite the bullet. Seems to me that country needs surgery without anesthesia.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 16, 2015, 04:01 PM
In a way Greek governments are responsible for the situation that exists over there.  It seems they don't understand the basic notion that you cannot make 1€ and spend 2€. Now they have to bite the bullet. Seems to me that country needs surgery without anesthesia.

At this moment, Greece is required to make 2€ and pay 1€ to the creditors. The ideal for the economy would be low primary surplus targets over a great period of time.
Anyway, the name of the surgery is already known: Ukraine II
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 18, 2015, 05:29 PM
@humbert

The Greek crisis started, as you know, in 2010, when George Papandreou's government decided to sign a loan agreement with EU member states, ECB and the IMF. Greece was unable to honor its debt commitments. Papandreou was forced to sign to protect the eurosystem (including Greek banks of course) from failure. He decided to turn the great primary deficit of about 13% GDP to a primary surplus.  He said that Greece would be back in the markets by 2012. Many Greeks regarded -and still regard- Papandreou as a traitor, because he allegedly increased the deficit on purpose, in coordination with EUROSTAT and he bailed out the insolvent Greek banks, giving the elite enough time to withdraw their money abroad, while the Greek economy was collapsing. When Papandreou decided to organise a referendum about a greek exit from the Eurozone, his government was overthrown.
Then Loukas Papadhmos organised the PSI, and the EFSF took full control of the Greek debt. Grexit speculation was extremely high in summer 2012, when Antonis Samaras was elected as PM. He tried to stabilize the economy and until 2014 it seemed that he controlled the situation. He gradually reduced pensions and wages but he was unwilling to reform the official sector. He created a "false surplus" by imposing high taxes. He is particularly hated for his ENFIA law (tax on real state) which made real estate value drop by 40%. He failed to reach a deal with creditors and he was overthrown by SYRIZA. SYRIZA came to power as a semi-communist, anti-austerity party which promised increases in official sector wages and decreasing unemployment by employing more people in the official sector. They also promised to tear the memorandum of understanding and restore everything in '2010 state' (All of these could be done in the Eurosystem of course, they promised, because creditors "couldn't reject their proposals").

In these 5 years GDP has fallen by more than 25% and 130 billion € of deposits flew away from Greek banks. No structural reforms have been made and corruption remains huge. Unemployment is rather high (over 25%), but young people can *still* stay afloat with the pensions and salaries of their parents and grandparents. More and more Greek companies are closed due to high debts.

The pro-EU/anti-EU percentage ratio is about 65/35 at this monent. If there is a deal between creditors and Greece for an extension of the current program until November (unlikely) I estimate this ratio will almost become 50/50 by then, and civil unrest will be likely enough. It is imperative to reduce the tax load and start real reforms, now or never. OSI is required.

And this helps me explain why I believe Greece will become Ukraine II. The former Ukrainian president was overthrown by CIA-supported "protestors" who revolted when he decided to abandon the country's EU integration path. The Ukrainian citizens who were against the entry to EU revolted as well against the protestors. A civil war started. Putin decided to annex Crimea to protect Russia's military interests in the Black Sea. NATO and EU found this as an excuse to start a new "Cold war era".

Similarily, Greece is a NATO and EU member with great financial and geopolitical problems. When a leftist government decides to demand a 'status quo' change in Europe and many Greek people (for various reasons) are thinking of Grexit as an opportunity, Putin decides to support the government. This could also cause a civil unrest/war situation. I think a better term would be RUkraine - Reverse Ukraine, because the Ukrainian crisis was triggered when the country tried to enter the EU, while Greek crisis will be triggered when it tries to exit the EU.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 20, 2015, 07:03 AM
A historic Der Spiegel cover in my opinion:

(http://www.thetoc.gr/images/articles/2/article_74469/upl5584435a92adb.png)

Three days before the final chance to avoid capital controls and civil unrest in Greece.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 20, 2015, 03:03 PM
If Greece can't pay back the IFM...

Merkel will have to be persuasive in front of Tsipras next week: new reforms or Greece is screwed.
(https://rafzen.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/merkel-sextourismus-nach-griechenland.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on June 20, 2015, 10:24 PM
@Harkaz - Thanks so much for your explanation. I screen captured it so I could read it calmly and get a good idea of what's happening. Let me ask you this - these people who are against austerity, how do they expect the government to lower taxes and continue paying benefits as if nothing were happening? Do they think money grows on trees or what?

As for Ukraine, even if Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk got into power with help from the CIA, how does this give Russia the right to annex Crimea or support armed rebellion in the country's east? Besides, with all the land Russia has, what do they want with Crimea unless it's just to cause trouble?

@Scarface - regarding studios and other Paris living spaces, it seems to me the market dictates the price. Accordingly, if these places become so expensive that no one can afford them, then the price has to come down or the seller will be stuck with them forever. Do you agree?
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 21, 2015, 08:25 AM
@humbert
@Harkaz - Thanks so much for your explanation. I screen captured it so I could read it calmly and get a good idea of what's happening. Let me ask you this - these people who are against austerity, how do they expect the government to lower taxes and continue paying benefits as if nothing were happening? Do they think money grows on trees or what?

As for Ukraine, even if Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk got into power with help from the CIA, how does this give Russia the right to annex Crimea or support armed rebellion in the country's east? Besides, with all the land Russia has, what do they want with Crimea unless it's just to cause trouble?

People against austerity working in the official sector are often anything but productive. Some of them have not even gone to university, but have been receiving rather high salaries for political reasons.
Moreover, many young people are NOT willing/available to support the real economy. Most of them prefer to stay afloat with money from their grandparent's pensions than trying to innovate and make their own money, so they can be financially independent. On the other hand, the private sector has become completely dependent on the official sector, via various provisions. Many companies are closed, not because of austerity but due to bad management. Corruption and parasitism are common in Greek society. This explains why unemployment stays that high for such a long period of time. This situation shifts the load to more productive people who cannot lift all of it. For these reasons, anti-austerity has become very popular among Greek people.
In the meanwhile, an mounting demographic issue threatens to kill the Greek society completely. Even more young people are fleeing abroad and usually they're the most productive and talented. Greece is effectively in 'self-destruct' mode.
A Grexit is regarded by some people as a fresh start that could solve the problem. Indeed a primary surplus +3.5% (required by the current program) is not feasible for a country like that.

About Ukraine, Russia has a naval base in Crimea. Since the locals accepted their annexation by the Russian federation via referendum, there is no real reason to start a cold war about it. The civil war in Ukraine wouldn't be caused if the US government didn't interfere too much in the area. There are MANY people in Ukraine whose parents are Russians and they wouldn't accept a forced entry to the EU/NATO at all. I believe that both sides are responsible for the situation. And the issue won't be resolved any time soon.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on June 22, 2015, 10:35 PM
That's a very interesting explanation of what's going on in Ukraine. It's important to get feedback from informed guys like you. The news media is very unreliable and biased - on both sides! The only part of your explanation I have a hard time believing is the possibility of WW3. The MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) concept is precisely what prevented this during the tense years of the cold war, and is very much still in effect. Tensions that exist today can't possibly be compared to how it was before the USSR collapsed.

I still don't understand why Russia is so afraid of NATO expanding eastward. Another Operation Barbarossa is out of the question, and so is nuclear war. What are they afraid of?

Harkaz's explanation regarding those who oppose austerity still lacks an answer to a fundamental question - with the country bankrupt and in financial default, how do you fund the benefits they'd miss if austerity were imposed? I guess only way is to return to the Drachma, and then print enough Drachmas to pay everybody. The only problem with this is Greece will be just like 1920's pre-Hitler Germany where inflation was out of control. Sadly we all know what happened afterwards.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 23, 2015, 07:09 PM
There is no way to avoid cutting expenses. However, the Grexit economy will not be required to have a surplus for a long period of time as it happens now in Euro-> taxes could be very low and real economy would begin to sprout. In addition, necessary reforms will be made - forcibly, because Greece has huge problems with its productivity.

The current deal will kill the Greek economy. Social unrest did not start yesterday but it will start sooner or later. This happened in Argentina as well with another leftist government before its 2001 default. Mr Tsipras is nothing more than an incompetent and coward, afraid of the geopolitical risks a Grexit would ensue. A path which, in the end of the day, will be inevitable due to the violent reaction of the deprived Greek people.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 24, 2015, 04:18 PM
As harkaz said, the situation in Greece is a bit confused, and tonight the summit ended with nothing new.
It's difficult to know what's going to happen.
In the meantime, the Greeks are emptying their account...and it's a catastrophe for the Greek banks.
(http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/6560444-3x2-940x627.jpg)

With the recovery in the US stalling out, with bleak outlook for France (unemployment reached a new record tonight, despite the prayers of Rebsamen), and with the Greek stalemate, I'm obviously staying bear on the financial markets, as previously said.
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=2283.msg17397#msg17397



A disquieting article about nature has been released lately, even if it only confirms what was already known.
Indeed, this article is stating that animal species are disappearing roughly a hundred times faster than in the past. The most optimistic estimates show that the fauna of the Earth is undergoing the sixth mass extinction, according to a study published on Friday, June 19 by experts from US universities of Stanford, Princeton and Berkeley, among others.
Never, in their opinion, the world has lost its animal species at a rate that rapid since the last mass extinction, of dinosaurs, 66 million years ago. Their study, published in the journal Science Advances, "demonstrates beyond doubt that we are entering the sixth great mass extinction," said Paul Ehrlich, professor of biology at Stanford.
And humans will likely be among those species, they warn. "If we allow this to continue, life could take several million years to recover, and our species will probably disappear soon enough," said Gerardo Ceballos, of the Autonomous University of Mexico.
This analysis is based on observations documented extinctions of vertebrates - animals with internal skeletons like frogs, reptiles and tigers - from fossils and databases. The current rate of species extinction has been compared to "natural rhythms of extinction of species before human activity dominates."
This is difficult to make an estimate because experts do not know exactly what occurred throughout the 4.5 billion years of Earth. The rate of the past shows a disappearance of two species of mammals for ten thousand species in one hundred years, while "the average loss rate of vertebrate species in the last century is one hundred fourteen times higher than it would have been without human activity, even with the most optimistic estimates" according to the study.

"We insist that our calculations probably underestimate the severity of this extinction crisis, because our goal was to set a realistic low range regarding the impact of humankind on biodiversity the researchers say. The causes of species loss include climate change, pollution and deforestation. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, about 41% of amphibians and 26% of mammal species are threatened with extinction.
(http://s2.lemde.fr/image/2015/06/20/534x0/4658329_3_164f_le-cameleon-tarzan-est-en-danger-critique_0cfb3ee844db4812be970a5506f94afe.jpg)


In the meantime, let's keep having fun on the forum.
(http://media.giphy.com/media/3oEduSVmF4cELtJhlu/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on June 24, 2015, 09:19 PM
@Harkaz - Then it is your opinion that the only viable way is a Grexit due to the fact that agreeing to the EU's terms will cause undue hardship on the Greek people. What happens to the debt(s)? Greece will not pay, or will they pay back on their own terms?

@Fuj - When NATO was established as a military alliance in 1949, the target was the Soviet Union and it's satellite states (i.e., Communism). From 1989 to 1991 NATO's mortal enemy essentially self-destructed. It seems that Putin - a KGB man - wants to return to those days prior to 1989 and essentially reverse everything Yeltsin did. How many rights and freedoms has he curtailed in Russia itself? There is no question he killed Boris Nemtsov, and he'll so the same to anyone who stands in his way.

No matter how advanced technology becomes, the MAD concept will still be there. Last I heard the USA could destroy the entire planet 34 times over, and Russia about half that many times. There are too many missiles and only a few have to get through to produce a nuclear holocaust. In your post you forgot to mention submarine based missiles. One submarine alone could do it all. Had this not been the case, WW3 would have happened long ago. This situation makes WW3 impossible - would be no winners, only losers.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 25, 2015, 05:31 AM
@humbert Greece is unable to pay up its debt. This very clear to me at least. We could reach a compromise with creditors after hard and long negotiations as to how much money we'll pay and when, depending on Greek economy performance. For Greece to start paying, however, a stabilization of the economy is required.

There are some financial analysts here in Greece who argue that the MFAFA itself is not legal according to international Law. I'm not an expert on the subject but since Greek government accepted the 2010 loan agreement with a full loss of its immunity as a sovereign state and a loss of other immunities as well (ie. creditors can confiscate everything they want in Greek territory in case of default), it's quite possible.

Of course this means that all PMs/Ministers/Bank Governors who signed the MFAFAs or their amendments should be prosecuted for high treason. There is a clear financial benefit for them from signing that loan agreement: they transferred their money abroad, which would otherwise be lost (Greek banks would fail).

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on June 25, 2015, 09:45 PM
Based on what you're telling us it seems the most viable, if not the only solution is a Grexit. Greece would pay loans back on their own terms. OK.

You mentioned Papandreou signed a paper saying creditors had the right to confiscate assets located in Greek territory. How do they intend to do this without a full fledged military invasion? Imagine Angela Merkel raising the German flag over the Parthenon!

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 26, 2015, 03:30 PM
Based on what you're telling us it seems the most viable, if not the only solution is a Grexit. Greece would pay loans back on their own terms. OK.

You mentioned Papandreou signed a paper saying creditors had the right to confiscate assets located in Greek territory. How do they intend to do this without a full fledged military invasion? Imagine Angela Merkel raising the German flag over the Parthenon!



This seems improbable indeed, but given how fuc*ing desperate the greek elite is about staying in the Eurozone, who knows what they'll be willing to agree to after a potential default just to remain in the eurozone...

Greek elite is nothing more than a bunch of parasites that destroyed the Greek economy in the last 40 years. If they dare touch any strategic assets to service the debt they created just to save the banks that themselves brought on the brink of collapse by getting high loans and not paying back, there will be blood on the Greek streets.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 26, 2015, 05:21 PM
GRexit selected. Alexis Tsipras calls a referendum for the Greek voters to vote against the proposed deal.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 27, 2015, 03:55 PM
as harkaz said, Greece is moving closer to default. Greece's European partners shut the door on extending a credit lifeline to Athens, leaving it facing a default that could push it out of the euro after the leftist government rejected tough lender demands and put their bailout deal to a referendum.

Germany’s Wolfgang Schauble also said Greece had ended talks. And several other ministers suggested it could be time for Europe to consider Plan B, ie, how to handle a Greek default, and potential exit from the single currency.

In Greece there have been long queues at some cash machines in Athens as people react to Alexisis Tsipras’s shock announcement late last night

(https://i.ibb.co/DGhPMm8/1749384256.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on June 27, 2015, 07:39 PM
Based on everything we're seeing in the news and your posts, it appears a Grexit is inevitable. All we can do now it wait and see what happens.

@Fuj - another reason the US and NATO are building sophisticated anti-missile systems and similar things is because defense contractors in this country stand to make a fortune in the process. They have friends in high places, many of whom are on the take.

I'm not too clear as to why the historical animosity (dating back before Lenin)  between Russia and the West exists at all. I can only assume it's competition for resources. If someone such as Boris Nemsov managed to replace Putin, do you think he'd be able to at least mitigate this situation, if not bring it to an end?
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 28, 2015, 12:06 PM
With the current events in Greece, Monday could be interesting. An article of zero hedge is stating "Some Banks May Not Open Monday" according to Greek officials: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/greek-officials-warn-some-banks-may-not-open-monday
The Hellenic stock exchange could stay closed too.
According to those who have access to the futures on the dax 30, the German stock exchange, it was losing 460 points on Sunday. if nothing changes, It's going to be "the feta Alexis with good milk of bullis" on the markets.
(http://nsa37.casimages.com/img/2015/06/28//150628074311402534.png)

In the meantime, let's pray for harkaz and for our Greek brothers.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 28, 2015, 01:56 PM
Greek Prime minister Alexis Tsipras confirmed a few minutes ago on TV that banks would stay closed on 29 june in Greece and the establishment of capital controls...

(http://s2.lemde.fr/image/2015/06/28/644x322/4663459_3_a2b8_le-premier-ministre-grec-alexis-tsipras-lors_bffe3834c58fb35b7620639eac60e7b5.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 28, 2015, 04:55 PM
OK, the collapse has started. Tsipras did not present a plan B for the referendum and destabilised the economy.

Let's see what Greece will be by Friday.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 28, 2015, 05:29 PM
-520 points on the dax,-220 points on the cac40 and -280 points for wall street on the futures of ig markets... The beginning of a significant crash or a bear market? Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't advise you to buy for the moment.
Let's see tomorrow if there is indeed a significant fall at the opening, if it's the case, I will earn money. Luckily, I only have bearish positions on the dax, and I have followed the scenario that I've been giving in this topic for months and it seems to materialize.
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=2319.msg16414#msg16414
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=2283.msg17756;topicseen#msg17756
At 12500 points on the dax I was losing 10000 euros, and I didn't give in. Instead of selling my position, I doubled it and sold 70% with gains. I reinforced it lately, seeing that the turn of events was not positive.
In my opinion the markets could be choppy over the next few weeks.
You know, one day I was drinking and I asked Maher what to do but he couldn't answer me. Thanks to him I took the good decision. If my case with the judge is over soon with a favorable decision, I will make a new donation. Let's pray for me.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 29, 2015, 08:26 AM
Civil unrest will start soon in Greece.

Greece has no political leadership capable of keeping Greece in Eurozone or forcing a Grexit.
Greece will collapse completely, because the elite is full of parasites.

And most Greek people will vote yes just to keep their provisions, not to change the economy. When they'll discover they won't be able to do so after capital controls and default, social coherence will implode.

Unfortunately I'm embarrassed to be a Greek at this tragic moment.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 29, 2015, 10:58 AM
It's possible harkaz, but it's not sure.
I was reading sb on a forum saying: there are ATM queues in Greece, but not in Tunisia for the tourists. Even the jihadits are not targeting Greece, there is nothing to destroy.
What's more, an eventual exit of the euro is not necessarily catastrophic, a colleague of mine was working in Argentina during its bankruptcy, and he's not dead.
Think about mr baboon, he doesn't have euros but he's happy.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/Papio_hamadryas_eating_an_apple.JPG)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 29, 2015, 03:34 PM
Tonight, I'm going to talk about Greece and the financial markets. Unfortunately, this is not cheerful news.
Indeed, Tuesday at midnight is the deadline for the repayment of $ 1.6 billion to the IMF. Greece would then be in default.
Alexis Tsipras is scheduled to speak on Monday at 9pm, while the actors of this crisis, politicians and officials, spoke all day long.
A referendum on the aid package to Greece will be held on 5 July. The banks and the Greek stock exchange was closed for a week.

In the case of the Greek crisis, it's a bit like the children saying, "I know you are, but what am I", the time of reciprocal accusations. The one too, where we expect the other to take a step, each one believing they have done enough.

The one, finally, where nothing happens, where everything is frozen nearly three days after the announcement by Alexis Tsipras, the Greek Prime minister, of a referendum on the proposals of creditors - European Union (EU), International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB), on 5 July.

Now Greece is heading towards bankruptcy, if as seems to be the case, the Greek government is not able to pay before Tuesday 30 June the $ 1.6 billion it owes to the IMF.

(http://s1.lemde.fr/image/2015/06/29/644x322/4664073_3_77eb_jean-claude-juncker-angela-merkel-francois_64ffa4d813934a28183bc52080eeafee.jpg)


For some specialists, the Grexit is the only option. That's the opinion of trader Delamarche, who is explaining that a new currency could boost the Greek economy, and notably tourism, its only profitable sector:
http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/video/olivier-delamarche-vs-rachid-medjaoui-12-il-faut-que-les-grecs-comprennent-que-le-seul-moyen-pour-eux-de-s-en-tirer-est-de-sortir-de-l-euro-2906-572164.html

Of course, the government is accountable for its incompetence and mismanagement of the finances of the nation. But in fact, Greece is the tree that hides the forest. Draghi is afraid a grexit might be a catalyst for the exit of other over-indebted countries, such as Portugal, Italy or France.
Politicians are also afraid of a disruptive and sudden loss of confidence in public debts, with skyrocketing interest rates. This would also trigger a collapse of the financial markets, at least an explosion of the current bubble which has been fueled by the money of central banks over the last few years.

More generally, I think the current events are just a violent resurgence of the crisis of 2008. Indeed, the central banks have gained time, without resolving the main issues.
(https://ray032.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/compromise.jpg)


As I have already said, we are living in complex societies, and whenever a society becomes too complex, it ends up collapsing, as wase the case with the Roman Empire.
(https://aspoonfulofsuga.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/090922evolution.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on June 29, 2015, 09:23 PM
It is currently 3:00 UTC 30/6/2015 (21:00 here, still 29/6) - I just turned on the BBC and they're saying Greece is "hours away" from a default. I'm under the impression the default goes into effect at 0:00 (1/7/2015) Athens time. In this upcoming referendum it's clear the Greek people are in a position where they must choose between the Devil and Satan. All we can do now is wait and see.

While we're on the subject, the US territory of Puerto Rico is also about to default. According to the BBC, Washington is saying they will not bail the territory out. Many years ago territories and former colonies fought for independence. Today the shoe is on the other foot - the colonial powers are more than happy to be rid of these territories, it's the territories that don't want independence. In this case, most Puerto Ricans would tremble if suddenly the Americans decided to pack up and leave.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 30, 2015, 04:55 PM
Tonight, I'm going to do a conference to talk about the recent heatwaves and the fall of the financial markets.

Lately, we have seen that India and the south of Pakistan witnessed deadly heatwaves.
A man cooling off in a puddle in Karachi.
(http://static01.nyt.com/images/2015/06/26/world/26Pakistan-web/26Pakistan-web-master675.jpg)

Fortunately, Vasudev and usmangujjar have not succumbed and they are still with us on the forum.
I was a bit astonished because while it was 45 degrees in Karachi at the beginning of June, I was almost cold in Paris, with temperatures sometimes below 10 degrees at night. All that is over and the heatwave reached Europe yesterday. Today the temperature reached 42 here and the alert threshold for ozone levels was exceeded. When I looked out of the window this morning the sky was a bit grey, indeed.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on June 30, 2015, 06:25 PM
Hellenic Republic has defaulted today. Grexit is now irreversible : Even if the Greeks choose yes on the referendum, banks will remain closed for at least 3 more weeks and capital controls will remain for one more year, at least. Recession will make any attempt to sign a new program unacceptable by society. In the meanwhile, official sector servants will be unpaid due to the collapse of the economy and the state will paralyze.

Alexis Tsipras has, effectively, taken the entire economy down with him.

A new drachma will be devalued about 30 times compared to euro. (It might go even lower).

Fortunately, Greece has some gold left: 100 metric tonnes. We might be able to rebuild the economy with that amount.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 01, 2015, 04:46 AM
I'm announcing a new opportunity: I bought a significant short position at 4935 points on the cac. Tsipras must have burped and there is a technical rebound.
www.boursorama.com/bourse
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 01, 2015, 09:39 AM
The position has just been sold with gains. The market has moved down due to discrepancies between Hollande and Merkel.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 03, 2015, 01:05 AM
On 7 may, I was talking about the Chinese stock exchange, warning that a bubble might explode.
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=2283.msg17263#msg17263
The Shanghai stock exchange broke through the 5000 mark since, but in less than a month it lost more than 20% and came back below 4000 points.


The situation in Greece and the slowdown in China can also explain this situation.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 08, 2015, 01:11 AM
As expected in the previous messages, the Chinese bubble keep exploding.
The SSE is currently losing 5%...why not a return on 3000 points?
(https://i.ibb.co/WK8K25Q/784036sse.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 24, 2015, 12:12 AM
Today, a crash is expected on the stock markets...

The Shanghai Stock exchange lost 8.45%.
(https://i.ibb.co/VHxxPNR/800369sse.png)

And the futures for Europe and Wall Street are extremely negative.
(https://i.ibb.co/rQRcpCM/433416estx.png)

Are we already on the brink of war?
it's possible.

Macedonia is being invaded by migrants and the police is using tear gas, to no avail.
(https://i.ibb.co/k8xt5X2/12-2741a53.jpg)

And in Germany some riots broke out with people protesting against the opening of a center for refugees in Heidenau.
(https://i.ibb.co/PTQxyQr/4733600-6-374a-heurts-entre-la-police-et-des-manifestants-a8f56d6816837c971711be9e44a4f342.jpg)

In the meantime, Is militants blew up the Baal Shamin temple in Palmyra.
(https://i.ibb.co/F521W9W/x190134-jpg-pagespeed-ic-TXL-z9kx7n.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on September 04, 2015, 06:34 AM
Yesteday, there has been a rebound on the stock markets, but they are declining again today. the cac 40 is currently losing 2.22%, the dax 2.17% and the index of Stockholm 1.86%.

On the forum, we have not spotted fuj and iih for a long time now. Perhaps they are back to school, who knows.

I have to go out now. Maybe I will take some photos.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on September 05, 2015, 04:56 PM
Tonight, I'm going to give you a quick insight of the stock markets.

I advised you to stay out of the stock markets, and I did not imagine that the last few weeks would be so difficult. Recently, the Greece stock markets closed and a few weeks later, in mid August, the markets literally collapsed. The cac 40, the Dax and Stockholm lost 13% in one months, the Shanghai stock Exchange 15%, and the Tadawul of Saudi Arabia 16%. Wall Street only lost 8%.
Certainly, it has been a time of turbulence in financial markets.

Lately I sold my small positions on Theolia, with a small gain. I talked about it recently. I only have some Diaxonhit now, but its stock price plummeted.

And in the next few weeks, perhaps it's going to go up, but I'm not very optimistic. The dow jones is still high, and if it was to go to 13000, the downside potential for the other markets would still be significant.

What's more, the fall in the commodity price does not bode well for growth and it's symptomatic of an economic downturn. But this is good news for the people who have to drive.

Here, I'm showing you the evolution of the stock price of Vallourec, the world leader in the manufacture of seamless steel tubing, notably useful for the oil sector. Its price literally plummeted, since it has been divided by 3 in one year. It's due to the fall in oil prices. The firm announced some losses recently, while publishing its half-yearly results.
(https://i.ibb.co/zm1V3r1/19573611vk.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on September 16, 2015, 09:23 AM
Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.
After the big rebound of 5% the SSE, the European markets are green (except the Dax). The Dow jones is close to balance.
The cac 40 is up 1.2%.
I told you to stay away from the stock RWE. It lost 30% ever since. And considering that the firm is going to need further impairment provisions, it's still not advisable to buy it.

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on September 19, 2015, 06:02 PM
According to Goldman Sachs, it's possible the price of crude oil could drop to as low as $20 a barrel. Basically there's too much supply and not enough demand. China is in the middle of a slowdown. The USA is extracting more oil though phracking, and of course there are oil exporting countries who simply cannot afford to cut production. It has gotten so bad that today the price of a liter of gasoline here was 53¢. It's even less expensive than E85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline) which sold for 55¢ despite tax breaks and subsidies. For more details check this link (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/09/11/oil-could-plunge-20-goldman-sachs-says/72054790).
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on September 19, 2015, 07:03 PM
In the US, gasoline is cheap because there is practically no taxes. In Paris, the cheapest station displays 1.35 euros...
Well, nobody seems worried about the US debt though, you can keep paying peanuts for the gasoline. Last year, the US deficit was 800 billion vs 80 billion for France, Germany had a surplus of 18 billion (and we are usually singled out by Merkel, so the US being 5 times more populated than France, it stands out as the worst of the lot).


A article of a man who is predicting a big correction on the markets for October... http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/07/governments-worldwide-will-crash-the-first-week-of-october-according-to-2-financial-forecasters.html
So if you have stocks, and if you have not sold before the correction that I had predicted (The main markets have had difficult times lately, like the Dow jones, the SSE, the Mumbay Sensex, the Dax, the Cac40...) then Be alert for signs that may indicate a further downfall of the stock markets (for example a dove on the roof, a barking dog...) 
Personally, I made a mistake since I bought some diaxonhit in mid-August. I reinforced my position on Friday. By the way, The cac40 lost 2,3% and the dax 3% after a small rebound in the preceding days.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7lX0lR2dgI
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on September 21, 2015, 08:17 PM
There are gasoline taxes in this country, just not as notoriously high as in Europe. The states of New York and California are probably the worst offenders. Regular gas in those states has gone as high as $1.30 per liter. I should also emphasize that the low price of gasoline is a temporary situation caused by the steep drop in crude oil. How long it will last is anybody's guess.

If this country adopted a more ethanol-friendly policy, passing anti-pollution tests would be a lot easier. Sadly the oil monopoly will use all its money and power to prevent that from happening.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on September 22, 2015, 03:59 AM
to humbert: maybe they have raised the taxes since I visited Florida in 2001, it's possible. But since 2001, the price of oil has gone up, and probably the difference of price was reduced between Europe and the US. Indeed, the US consumer is much affected by the increase in oil prices, while in France there is a mechanism which makes taxes more significant when the price of oil is low (that's the case in the meantime, and that's why the downward price of oil has not been passed on to the consumer). 

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on September 24, 2015, 05:59 AM
I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.
As usual, stocks are crumbling today. While Shanghai earnt 0,86%, Tokyo lost 500 points, and the cac40 and the dax30 are in free fall. The cac 40 is losing 1,30% and the dax 1.82%. The causes are known with the economic crisis and the questioning of the growth in China.
The car sector is falling, except Volkswagen.

(https://i.ibb.co/xsQDtNk/579652cac40.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/1JQ1pmZ/631194dax30.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on October 28, 2015, 03:02 PM
Tonight, I'm going to talk about Ferrari's stock.
Ferrari has priced its stock at $52 per share for its initial public offering (IPO), reports CNBC. That means Ferrari is valued at $9.8 billion. It gained up to 15% on 21 october, topping $60.  Today, Ferrari shares traded at $51.40 down 20% from their top  and falling below $52 IPO price.
(https://i.ibb.co/DQqnYth/949266ferrari.png)

(http://madwhips.s3.amazonaws.com/photo_1_rosso_mugello_ferrari_458_in_paris_6_101263_original.jpg)

The question is: at this price, should you buy Ferrari’s stock? And for me, the answer is no. On the short term, there could be a rebound, but the fall of the stock was clearly predictable. Indeed, If we convert the valuation of the stock to the yearly production of 7000 cars, it gives 1.4 million $ per Ferrari...
So the stock is grossly overvalued. Depending on the overall market, the stock could keep plummeting in the weeks to come.

PS: A few weeks ago I recommended Vergnet, and the stock soared ever since. It is now standing at 3 euros. As for Arcelor Mittal, I was wrong since the stock climbed by 10%. However, I advise against buying it.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on November 07, 2015, 09:03 PM
Today, I'm going to do a message targeted for those wishing to open an account to trade Forex or binary options.
First and foremost, you have to know that 90% of individual traders or investors who trade on their own capital end up losing money, and it's particularly true concerning forex (95% of losers amongst forex investors vs 89% on equities).
In the second place, I want to warn you against choosing "blacklisted" brokers. Let's take the example of FXGM (and not FXCM which seems respectable). At first you will invest 200$ but then they will make you think that you have earnt a lot of money, their websites being just a fake casino, and finally they will lure you into investing significant sums.
Once the victim is hooked, they are just disappearing with the money. Many of these scam websites are disappearing after a few days too. And many people lost several tens of thousands of $ . Of course their sales representatives will not contact you again. They have no knowledge of financial products, but they are certainly excellent crooks.
In a rare TV report, a hidden camera was showing the premises of FXGM in Israel...and its employees, who were visibly working hard, whilst listening to music. They had probably lured another credulous victim.
(https://i.ibb.co/SskDvX0/204196fxgm.png)
The site FXGM (Don't register unless you are threatened with a gun): http://www.fxgm.com/
The headquarters of FXGM would be situated in Cyprus and its main offices are in Israel. Why Israel? Because Israeli laws are only protecting Israeli people. It means that if you are an American or a European investor, you take it in the as-s.
Tel Aviv, Israel
(http://www.maisondevis.net/website/NOGA/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Telaviv-City-Beach.jpg)

If you want to know if a broker is reliable, you can do a "whois". If the IP is anonymized or if the broker is situated in a tax haven (The Bahamas), just flee.

Here is a list of Blacklisted Brokers.

A
- aaafx.com
- aaoption.com
- abcbinaire.com
- abcoptions.com
- activebanque.com
- ageigerfinancial.com
- agfmarkets.com
- aldershirecapital.com
- ajbrowdercapital.com
- allianzmetrobanque.com
- alternative-markets.com
- analysis-finance.com
- astonforex.com
- astonmarkets.com
- atticusholdingsint.com
- avisoptions.com
- axel-neumann.com
B
- bancdemonaco.com
- bancmarkets.com
- banco-binario.com
- bank-partners.com
- bank2invest.com
- bankandbinary.com
- bankandcapital.com
- bankandtrader.com
- bankingbinary.com
- bankinvestcapital.com
- bankofbinary.com
- bankofmarket.com
- banks-capitals.com
- bankxp.com
- banqofbroker.com
- banqueinvest.com
- barclaysbroker.com
- bclaysmarkets.com
- bclbrokers.com
- beipartners.com
- betonspot.com
- bfmmarkets.com
- bfmvip.com
- bforbinary.com
- bforbroker.com
- bforex.com
- bforoption.com
- bfxoption.com
- bhmmarket.com
- bigoption.com
- bimgfx.com
- binairedirect.com
- binamax.com
- binareo.com
- binarinvest.com
- binaritrading.com
- binaroom.com
- binarush.com
- binary-option-web.com
- binaryforexmarket.com
- binaryfxmarket.com
- binarylowcost.com
- binarymarkets.com
- binarynvest.com
- binarystockmarket.com
- binarywallstreet.com
- binawin.com
- binoa.com
- binomaker.com
- bitc1.biz
- bitc1.com
- bitransax.com
- blue-options.com
- bnrmarkets.com
- bo-bank.com
- bo-markets.com
- bocapital.com
- bossoptions.com
- boursofx.com
- boursolev.com
- boursomarket.com
- boursoratrade.com
- brokeragecapital.com
- brokerandco.com
- brokerinternationalbank.com
- brokerofgeneve.com
- brokerofgeneve.net
- brookbourne.com
- bsf-investments.com
- bvamarket.com
- byrix.com
C
- caesartrade.com
- camfinances.com
- capitalmanagementgroup.com
- capitalmarkets.com
- carmigestion.com
- ccftrading.com
- ceafinance.net
- cedarfinance.com
- central-bourse.com
- centralebankeurope.com
- cerberusgenerale.com
- cfrcomm.org
- cfxmarkets.com
- cititrader.com
- citmarkets.com
- cityeq.com
- cityofbinary.com
- cobtrading.com
- colbertcap.com
- cooperbrennan.com
- corporatetrust-am.com
- cteqs.com
D
- daily-option.com
- deutschemarkets.com
- digitoption.com
- direct-epargne.com
- directepargne.com
E
- easyxp.com
- ebinaires.com
- edinternationales.com
- ef-investing.com
- eiffelinvest.com
- eligere.co.uk
- elyseescapital.com
- empireoption.com
- enfima.com
- epargnefacile.com
- eurobondfx.com
- eurocapinvestments.com
- euromaxfinance.com
- etlfx.com
- everyoption.com
- excellencebroker.com
- excitingmarkets.com
- expertdania-investissement.com
F
- f-financial.net
- fandcmanagement.com
- fb-one.com
- fboption.com
- feeltrade.com
- finance-tradition.net
- financial-broker.com
- financial-corporation.com
- financial-international.net
- financialbinary.com
- financialcorporate.com
- finanperf.com
- finanzasforex.com
- finchmarkets.com
- fmtrader.com
- fobtrading.com
- forex4you.com
- forextrada.com
- forextradition.com
- forex-metal.com
- fortuneoinvest.com
- fp-management.com
- frxbanque.com
- fsi-union.com
- ftg-gmbh.com
- ftradition.com
- futurmarket.com
- fxbfinances.com
- fxbtrade.com
- fxcapitalbank.com
- fxcast.com
- fxcmanagement.com
- fxglcapital.com
- fxgm.com
- fxntrade.com
- fxobank.com
G
- ga-finance.net
- gcitrading.com
- generalbank-invest.com
- generaloptions.com
- genevabroker.com
- getbinary.com
- gfbcapital.com
- gfboptions.com
- gfmtrader.com
- gfssecurities.com
- gftrades.com
- globalmarkets.bg
- globaltrader365.net
- gmtinvest.com
- gmtmarkets.com
- gmtprivatebroker.com
- golden-bank.com
- goldwinmarket.com
- good-option.com
- greycorppartners.com
- gtimarkets.com
- gtoptions.com
H
- haussman-invest.com
- hcifund.com
- helmutstuder.com
- hftpro.com
- hermay.co.uk
- highfrequency.trade
I
- iam-trader365.com
- ibank-capital.com
- ibcfx.com
- icbci.com.hk
- icmarkets.com
- idmarkets.com
- igfmarket.com
- igm-financial.com
- igm-markets.com
- ihforex.com
- ikkotrader.com
- ilq.com.vn
- imcbroker.com
- ingbroker.com
- inglobaltrade.com
- insta-trading.com
- instaforex.com
- integralbroker.com
- intercomarkets.com
- intercontinentalmarkets.com
- invest-binary.com
- investcapitalmarkets.com
- investing-secure-international.com
- ioptioneu.com
- istockcapital.com
- itcfx.com
- itnfx.com
- itradestation.com
- ivoryoption.com
- ixitrade.com
J
- jbc-pro.com
- josef-lang.com
- justrader.com
K
- kd-markets.com
- ksftrade.com
- ksftrader.com
L
- lambergkapital.com
- laplateformedubinaire.com
- leaderoption.com
- legendoptions.net
- libertybinary.com
- livetrader.eu
- lo-bank.com
- londonb.com
M
- markets-capital.com
- markets-central.com
- markets-investment.com
- metatrada.com
- mhoptions.com
- miller-options.com
- monatrade.com
- money-bk-ge.com
- motionforex.com
- mrgmarkets.com
- mutiwinplan.com
- mutual-broker.com
- mybrokercorp.com
- myselftrade.com
N
- nakitrade.com
- natexiss-conseil.com
- nationaldebtplan.co.uk
- netcfd.com
- netotrade.com
- newton-invest.com
- newtradefx.com
- nextbinary.com
- no1options.com
- nordextrading.com
- nowoption.com
- nrgbinary.com
O
- oakwoodfs.com
- obinarycorporation.com
- obmarkets.com
- obroker.com
- okboptions.com
- onetradeoption.com
- opteck.com
- optimarkets.com
- option-bank.com
- option-market.com
- option-world.com
- optionbanking.com
- optionderivative.com
- optiongiants.com
- optionet.com
- optionmint.com
- optionprim.com
- optionprime.com
- optionrama.com
- options-forex.com
- options-tradings.com
- optionside.com
- optionsmarter.com
- optionsxo.com
- optionyard.com
- ora-mer.com
- oxfordmarkets.com
- optionwebs.com
P
- paydayparty.co.uk
- phenixoption.com
- planetoption.com
- prestigebanq.com
- primefms.com
- priva-trade.com
- privatbankinvest.com
- privilege-market.com
- privilegetrading.com
- pro-binary.com
- proinvest.trade
Q
R
- redfordoption.com
- redwoodoptions.com
- regaloptions.com
- rfxt.com
- richardsandcompany.net
- royal-broker.com
- royaldebank.com
S
- safe24options.com
- saitomergers.com
- saphircapital.com
- sccuonline.co.uk
- scottoption.com
- secureinvest.org
- selectcv.ca
- sequoia-markets.com
- shield-bank.com
- shieldscorppartners.com
- silver-phoenix-investments.com
- silverinvestmentcapital.com
- simpletradelimited.com
- solutionscapitals.com
- soxange.com
- startoptions.com
- strategiesolution.com
- strongoptions.com
- success-broker.com
- sunbirdfx.com
- supremebinary.com
- sycamoreoptions.com
T
- technopers.com
- timebinary.com
- tiptopoptions.com
- titantrade.com
- tmarkets.com
- tntoptions.com
- tradaxa.com
- tradecall-invest.com
- tradecapital.net
- tradect.com
- tradefx.com
- tradeofbroker.com
- tradequicker.com
- trader-invest.com
- trader369.com
- tradereasy.com
- traderplace.com
- tradersking.com
- tradersleader.com
- traderush.com
- traderxp.com
- tradignition.com
- trading-markets-capital.com
- tradingtechnologies.com
- tradmaker.com
- triomphecapital.com
- triumphoption.com
U
- ubinary.com
- ubtforex.com
- ukoptions.com
- universalbourse.com
- ubs-pb.com
V
- vankartrading.com
- vaultoptions.com
- versaillesfinances.com
- vipbinary.com
- vpoption.com
W
- wagnercapitalgroup.com
- wakamylibman.com
- white-miller-associates.com
- winn-trade.com
- winntrade.net
- winobin.com
- world-tradeinvests.com
- worldtradeoption.com
- worldtrading365.com
X
- xfr-invest.com
- xfroptions.com
- xpertmarket.com
- xpmarkets.com
Y
- youtradefx.com
Z
- zebrainvest.com
- zeoption.com
- zoomoption.com
- zulutrade.com
0
- 01binarygroup.com
- 01broker.com
1
2
- 2251ws.com
- 24hcapital.com
- 24xp.com
- 2options.com
3
- 360capitalmarkets.com
4
- 4investcapital.com
- 4xp.com
5
- 50option.com
- 5markets.com
6
- 6option.com
7
- 77options.com
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on November 13, 2015, 07:36 AM
Yesterday, the Eurostoxx50 lost 1.76%, the cac40 lost 1.94%, and today equities are plunging again, the cac 40 losing 1.20%.
(https://i.ibb.co/WvGvDVj/242855cac40.png)
There is also another fall of the Arcelormittal stock. I advised against owning this stocks before a somewhat big rebound, but It seems that fundamentals are taking over.
(https://i.ibb.co/B4KpSh7/436483arcelor.png)
There are certainly feelings of pessimism after the recent events in the Near East, and the dire forecasts of Moody's.
According to Moody's economists, global growth should fail to shine in 2016 and 2017, due to a continued slowdown in China, a deterioration of international trade and less favorable financing conditions facing most emerging economies.
Well, a slowdown could save the climate, since Kerry set the cat among the pigeons by stating that the treaty stemming for the cop21 in Paris wouldn't be legally binding...
(http://s2.lemde.fr/image/2015/11/13/534x0/4808703_6_90c7_john-kerry-a-l-aeroport-de-stansted-pres-de_90f215f19bf7d43409043ca0c61fb44d.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on November 23, 2015, 05:00 PM
Well, it seems I was right about Ferrari's stock. Its price kept tumbling and today the stock price fell more than 4% to close at $46.00. At today's closing, the price is 10% below my month-old warning.
(https://i.ibb.co/3WLrtP7/359024ferrari.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 03, 2015, 07:53 AM
Once again, the markets are crumbling...
In fact, markets are tumbling as Draghi disappoints investors, dashing expectations that the European Central Bank would pump more new money into the eurozone economy each month. And I find this rather positive.

(https://i.ibb.co/Ycj7RW5/617984cac40-J.png)


A few weeks ago, I told you to keep away from the stock Arcelor mittal. After a fall of 8% yesterday, its share price is dropping again today...

(https://i.ibb.co/nP1b32R/991747arcelorm.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 15, 2015, 07:06 AM
Today, European shares and oil are rising between 1.6% and 2.5% in mid-session, regaining some of the ground lost during the previous sessions, and Wall Street is expected in positive territory in a context where investors hold their breath before the monetary policy decision of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday.


(https://i.ibb.co/SN6qcnK/394767cac40.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 21, 2015, 11:42 AM
Today, the European stock markets fell during the last hour of the session.
(https://i.ibb.co/M1pzHSk/724585bourso.png)

Wall street was rising in the middle of the afternoon but at the closing in Europe it was flat.
Some analysts were predicting a rally for Christmas but I think that we the recent downward trend may continue.
There are more and more concerns that the action of the central banks, rather than fundamentals, are driving the markets and that once certain fundamentals re-establish themselves, the stock markets may fall. The fall in oil price is a good indicator of the economic activity, and it just keep sliding.
This morning, when I saw that the Dax was gaining 1,5% I wanted to invest on the Dax double short but I was a bit tired, I didn't do it. I was also preparing the conference with the photos of the paintings. Well, tonight it closed down 1%.

There are also worries concerning the health of the banks:
Europe's 10 biggest banks announced 130,000 job cuts since June, amidst regulation, anaemic economic growth and technology changes. All this will force banks across Europe to find more savings in 2016, with jobs likely to be the biggest casualty, according to investors and analysts.
Ten of the region's biggest banks have announced staff cuts of 130,000 since June, according to data compiled by Reuters more than the total number of job losses announced by those banks in 2013 and 2014. But investors believe the industry will need to slim down further and faster to boost profits.
In the US, the economic context is also quite bad: Morgan Stanley will eliminate 1,200 jobs, including 470 fixed-income and commodities traders and salespeople, as Wall Street’s outlook for its debt-markets businesses dims.
But the following news is perhaps the straw that breaks the camel’s back:
Portugal has agreed a €2.2bn state rescue for Banco International do Funchal (Banif), splitting the Madeira-based lender into “good” and “bad” banks and selling its healthy assets to Spain’s Santander for €150m in the country’s second bank bailout in less than 18 months.



Today there has also been the usual interview with the manager Olivier Delamarche. This time he almost fought with his interlocutor. Even the journalist Sommerer was a bit abashed by this interview. Delamarche has a pessimistic and yet realistic vision of the economy and the markets. For him, the markets are very expensive and fundamentally they would normally be much lower. But his interlocutor was a bit bullish for 2016, stating the US economy is in good shape with a 3% growth, but Delamarche did not really like this analysis, saying that 20% of unemployment in the US according to the LBS were not reflecting a significant recovery.
You can watch it here: http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/video/olivier-delamarche-vs-frederic-rollin-12-comment-les-marches-ont-ils-accueilli-la-hausse-des-taux-de-la-fed-2112-722833.html

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 22, 2015, 03:37 AM
After a brief passage in the green during the morning, the European markets are now sliding. The cac40 is losing 0,50%, the dax 0,35%.

(https://i.ibb.co/4T8ZSth/520218cac40.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 04, 2016, 12:41 AM
A steep correction is expected on the markets.
(https://i.ibb.co/0QmnY28/80045155ig.png)

Markets are crumbling because there has been a crash of 7% in China. Trading is suspended on both Shanghai and Shenzen markets. I expected such a crash and I sold some equities last week. I invested on the dax double short and took profit this morning. Caution is advised for the moment.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 05, 2016, 03:12 AM
I think the decline in stock markets is likely to continue. Be wary. If the dow jones breaks the threshold of 17000, the downward potential could be significant. And Im not upbeat due to the geopolitical situation.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 05, 2016, 09:57 PM
Another fall in stock market indices is expected tomorrow according to the stocks futures table displaying real-time quotes of indices:
(https://i.ibb.co/y5w1LV4/31844935ig.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 06, 2016, 05:38 AM
The financial markets shifted from being sino-beatific to sino-panicked.
The Dax30 and cac40 are currently losing 1,7%.
(https://i.ibb.co/HDwkv21/595097dax.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/GcwJQd0/228346cac40.png)

Maybe it’s due to the launch by North Korea of an Hydrogen Bomb yesterday, in a test site in the northeast part of the country.

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 07, 2016, 01:45 AM
I hope that the users of the forum have tightened their seat belt. A big decline in stock markets is expected. The dax and the cac40 are going to open soon. In premarket, the cac 40 is losing 122 points, the dax 300 points, and the djia 230 points.
The Asian markets have been sideswiped by China plunge. Indeed, a flash crash in China set Asian markets down for a fourth straight day. The CSI3000 lost 7%, Shenzen 8.3%. The markets were suspended after 20min of trading.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 07, 2016, 02:06 PM
Well, tonight the Dow jones is literally collapsing. Well, I told you a few days ago that below17000 the dow jones could end up like a sausage, I hope you did not take some bullish positions. And after a steep decline today, the dax and cac40 futures are already bright red.
(https://i.ibb.co/8MB390D/546889igdow.png)
It's certainly linked with the stampede on the Chinese markets, and with the geopolitical situation. The escalating tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the belligerent behavior of North Korea are really disquieting. And I don't even talk about the Islamic State which is acting up in Libya. In Sirte,  most of the population has fled the town. And yet, there would be some humanitarian work for these soldiers in Syria: there is a famine in the West of Syria and some people are scavenging for food, including dogs and cats, in an effort to feed themselves. Of course, there has been a fatwa since it's forbidden in Islam.
And today in France, for the birthday of the attacks of Charlie Hebdo, a man attacked a police station in the 18th arrondissement of Paris with a knife. Allegedly, he was wearing a fake explosive belt and pledged allegiance to daech. He has been the only casualty of his attack.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 08, 2016, 05:39 AM
In China the markets bounced back this night, after the flash crash the day before. In Europe the markets seemed to be relieved but the cac40 is now losing 0,35%. I'm afraid the rebound of the markets might be temporary.
To follow the cac40 in real time, here is a link: http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 08, 2016, 12:04 PM
Well, finally the European markets fell today. As I was saying earlier, the collapse in the stock markets is probably not over.
Maybe I will hold a conference this week end to talk about this.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 09, 2016, 04:47 PM
This evening, I’m going to talk about the economic context, about the contcollapse in financial markets and finally we’ll what kind of investements makes the most sense.



There was the year 2015 with the aligned planets: cheap oil, weak euro and negative interest rates. This favorable alignment was to boost growth in Europe and France. But growth did not come. And now that the year 2016 barely begun, this precarious order is already threatened. Three black stars are arising, while the World Bank has already lowered its global growth forecast for 2016 to 2.9% (against a 3.3% forecast in June).

The first threat comes from China, which had to close the Shanghai Stock Exchange, on Thursday, January 7, for the second time since the beginning of the year after a sharp drop. The second World economy is broken down, and Beijing is about to embark on a currency war. The yuan, which was supposed to appreciate gradually as the Chinese economy was growing, is at its lowest in five years against the $. The dilemma is strong in Beijing. On one hand, the Conservatives are in favor of a slide of the currency that would enable public firms to regain competitiveness with it and avoid laying off massively. On the other, the moderns feel that companies need to restructure and that a sharp devaluation would be only a temporary anesthetic. If the slide of the yuan, of more than 5% since the summer, accelerates, it is a true global currency war that China is going to trigger, to regain its role as the world's factory. This offensive will probably not remain unanswered in Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia.

The second threat is Saudi Arabia. It floods the planet  with oil ad deflated prices, to impoverish its Iranian enemy and drive some US producers of shale gas out of the market. When the price of crude goes down from $ 115 to $ 70, cheap energy boosts growth. Beyond, the negative effects outweigh the positive effects because they affect too many producer countries, plagued by political and social unrests, which drastically reduce their imports.

The third danger is the US Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates in late December. Free and limitless money that had prevailed since the terrible 2008 crisis, is over. And that's good. However, the credit crunch involves significant risks, including that of a long-term rate hike. A bond market crash would affect the major emerging countries, such as Brazil, stuffed with dollar debts, and hamper investments.

What’s more, other threats are looming over the world economy.
In Libya chaos deepens as the country is divided, it has 2 parliaments . And yet it was the richest country of Africa before the fall of Kadhafi in 2011. But Libya is also going broke.That last tidbit should be surprising. Libya has Africa’s largest oil reserves and has long been an important supplier of light sweet crude, the kind made into gasoline and kerosene. It also had tons of money in both hoards of cash reserves and investments across the globe.But the oil, which used to bring in 96 percent of the country’s income, is not flowing anymore. From a high of at least 1.6 million barrels per day at the beginning of 2011, Libya is lucky to export a fourth of that today.And the scope of Islamic State’s attacks on Libya’s eastern oil ports expanded on Wednesday, Libyan officials said, with at least five oil tanks set on fire.



In this context, the financial markets have plunged since the beginning of the year.
The cac 40 lost 7% and practically 15% since the end of November, standing at 4333 points.
(https://i.ibb.co/RznnpCx/618741cac40evol.png)

Likewise the Dow Jones lost 1500 points since the end of November. As for the Stockholm stock exchange, shadow97 asked my opinion during summer. I hope my advice to sell didn’t go unheard, it fell from 1650 to 1350.



During the conference, some people asked some interesting questions.
For instance, Mr Baboon, who followed closely the lecture, asked where to invest in 2016.
(https://i.ibb.co/v4NbmRY/34182871255d1.jpg)

In the current context, I advise against investing in stocks of oil companies and probably in the other cyclical sectors too.
And Goldman Sachs is the latest firm to warn its clients that tumbling oil prices are bad news for stocks : "We expect Energy will post a $2 per share loss in 2015 EPS, the first time that Energy EPS has been negative since our data series began in 1967. The write-down in Energy company assets has exacerbated the earnings hit from the 35% fall in Brent crude oil prices in 2015 following a 48% plunge in the commodity price in 2014."
Likewise, I would be cautious with the banking sector, even if the share prices for the majority of the sector have traded at a discount to their tangible book value, and this is at a time when all of the big banks have credible plans to accelerate their returns on tangible book value.

Instead, I’m going to give you the firm which is in my « conviction buy list ». It is Velcan Energy,a listed Independent Power Producer which develops, finances and operates hydro power concessions in Emerging Markets.
Lately, Velcan received Techno-Economic Clearance for Tato-1 Hydropower Project in India (186 MW)
Currenly, Velcan is traded at 12.5 Euros. I think it could be valued 16 Euros.
(https://i.ibb.co/vcWHmLM/764692-Velcan.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 11, 2016, 10:46 AM
Today, after a session essentially spent in positive territory, the cac40 finally ended lower.
Yesterday, the Shanghai stock exchange lost 5%.

(https://i.ibb.co/jz3DgdM/215796cacday.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 13, 2016, 02:27 PM
Wall Street is crumbling tonight, now losing 340 points. If things are not changing, the opening of the European markets is going to be interesting tomorrow.
(https://i.ibb.co/pWvxqND/956555-WS2.png)

If I had to choose something, well, I would buy the stock Accor, a leading hotel group listed in the cac 40...
But I would keep avoiding utilities (gas and oil providers) as well as cyclical sectors such as banks in the current context.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 14, 2016, 05:18 AM
There is a "crack" on the markets. The dax and the cac 40 are currently losing 3%.
The stock Renault is collapsing: http://www.boursorama.com/cours.phtml?symbole=1rPRNO
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 15, 2016, 06:40 AM
On these levels, maybe some users are buying some stocks. Or maybe they have some unrealized losses, I'm thinking of shadow97 and fuj, I don't know why...
But in my opinion, the slide is going to continue, I would wait for a sell-off, and possibly a crack, before buying some stocks. At least I'm not buying anything for the moment. And btw, the market is still expensive.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 15, 2016, 01:32 PM
A few months ago, I talked about the stock Arcelormital (the name Arcelormetal would suit it best).
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg19233;topicseen#msg19233

Well, I think it was an enlightened opinion: ArcelorMittal lost 21.66% since 1 January and is the biggest drop in the CAC40. The metallurgist, which had already lost 57% of its value last year, is still very affected by the renewed uncertainty on the economic situation of the Chinese industry...
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Shadow.97 on January 16, 2016, 07:08 PM
On these levels, maybe some users are buying some stocks. Or maybe they have some unrealized losses, I'm thinking of shadow97 and fuj, I don't know why...
But in my opinion, the slide is going to continue, I would wait for a sell-off, and possibly a crack, before buying some stocks. At least I'm not buying anything for the moment. And btw, the market is still expensive.
Yep I just bought some stocks ;)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 17, 2016, 11:04 AM
(http://Yep I just bought some stocks)
maybe you were right, who knows. Could you tell us which stocks you chose, or the sector that you favored?
For the moment I didnt buy anything, I think there is still room for the stocks to slide further. For example I talked about Accor, and by the way it kept falling last friday, but at the current price the per is close to 30. It's still very expensive.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 17, 2016, 04:42 PM
Tonight, I summed up the opinion of a well-known (bearish) economist. Well, have your own opinion.

(http://www.lerevenu.com/sites/site/files/styles/img_lg/public/field/image/ours.jpg?itok=J3wTNfc6)

Albert Edwards , economist, and free electron of the bank Societe Generale, is anticipating a relapse into recession of the US economy and a collapse of the American Stock Exchange.

Albert Edwards is standing out in the financial world by his very iconoclastic positions that often disturb the optimistic consensus of forecasters.

According to him, investors will gradually take conscience of the recessive and deflationary impact on the developed economies of the devaluation of the Chinese currency. The carnage to come would be the indirect result of the quantitative easing of the Fed, which has not done much to stimulate US growth but inflated financial assets at stratospheric levels.

An area where the US QE has supported the growth of the business is the one of emerging economies, boosted by the influx of cash, with consequences such as a bubble in commodities (until 2014) and an investment boom in shale oil in the US, causing an "illusion of prosperity."

According to Albert Edwards, if asset inflation by money creation led to economic prosperity, Argentina would be the richest country in the world, but this is not the case. Fed's over confidence, pursuing its goal, was one of the main problems, and the ECB, the Bank of Japan, Bank of England followed suit.

The central bankers did not measure the disastrous effects related to too low interest rates, leading to a new economic crisis. But unlike 2007, the United States and Europe are on the verge of falling into deflation.

The overvaluation of the yuan has led to a marked slowdown in the Chinese industry, a current account turned negative, with a flight of capital and a decline in foreign exchange reserves used to halt the decline of the currency.

According to Albert Edwards, many Chinese companies have taken seriously the first devaluation of the yuan last summer, anticipating a further decline of their currency. And China is now well positioned to export a deflationary shock to the West without damaging its own economy. Thus, the drop in dollar prices of Chinese products imported into the United States accelerated. Already, the US ISM declined markedly, announcing the next recession.

Albert Edwards anticipates the convergence of US thirty year rates with their Japanese and German counterparts. The strategist expects a vertiginous fall of the SP 500,  under the lowest recorded in March 2009 at 666 points. The bear market would then bring the Shiller Price Earning Ratio (calculated on the average profit of the past ten years) below 7, corresponding to the lowest known in 1921, 1933 and 1983, that’s to say a level of 550 points! By taking an average of the profits over five years, he  values the SP 500 at 650 points.

Thus, the rise in prices since March 2009 is qualified by Albert Edwards of "cyclical bull market" in a "secular bear market".

Such a fall would plunge the US economy into the abyss, leading the Fed to use all means, with more QE, negative interest rates (Albert Edwards imagines -5%!) and a currency war...




Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 18, 2016, 11:55 AM
I'm going to give a quick insight of the markets.

Today has been another bloody day:
dax 30: -0,25%
cac 40: -0,49%
Stockholm: +0,06%
Ibex 35: -0,87%
Russian Rts index: -0,93%
Athex composite: -2,74%
FTSE mib: -2,65%
Note that Italian banks were battered in early trading Monday, pushing down the Italian index, as negative sentiment about the global economy fueled concerns that much-awaited consolidation among Italian banks could be delayed.
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, considered to be the Italian bank most in need of a merger, led the declines and was suspended from trading, with a theoretical loss of 12.9%.
As for the dow jones, it was closed today. There has been a small rebound of the Shanghai stock exchange, which gained 0,44%.
The nikkei lost 1,12%.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 19, 2016, 11:36 AM
Well, I hope you benefited from the rebound of the markets to sell your stocks or reduce your equity exposure.
Today the cac 40 gained 1.97%, the dax 1.5% and the stockholm stock exchange 2%.
But since the closing of the European markets 1h ago, the dow jones already lost 100 points. It's probable that the bearish trend may proceed in the days to come.
(https://i.ibb.co/cwVXKrX/247416dow.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Shadow.97 on January 19, 2016, 03:00 PM
Well, I hope you benefited from the rebound of the markets to sell your stocks or reduce your equity exposure.
Today the cac 40 gained 1.97%, the dax 1.5% and the stockholm stock exchange 2%.
But since the closing of the European markets 1h ago, the dow jones already lost 100 points. It's probable that the bearish trend may proceed in the days to come.

I forgot to move my banklogin to my new phone, so I cant log into my bank for a few day. Pray for the stockholm market to stay the same  ::)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 19, 2016, 03:54 PM
Well, I don't really know the stockholm stock exchange. The reason is simple, I can only buy shares listed in the Euro zone. I'm doing some trading for own account during my spare time, but it's rather difficult. Last year I have earnt some money till september. I had no losing trade. And because of only one trade, I finally ended up as a loser. Well, at the beginning of this year I earnt some money that exceeds last year's loss.
I worked for some time in finance, and I know that for 95% of the non professionals, the only winner is the broker. The stock market is practically a zero-sum game. If someone wins, another one loses. Not entirely though, there are dividends. I avoid the "weak markets", for example the Spanish or the Portuguese markets. In 2014 I had bought some stocks of Banco Santo Espirito, roughly 4000 euros, fortunately I sold before the suspension and the bankruptcy. 2 weeks before the management was reassuring about the health of this bank.

As for the stockholm market, a quick glance at those websites makes me think that this market is a bit expensive compared to the other ones in Europe. However, there are good dividends. The question is: are they sustainable, and I don't know the answer. In any case, I would avoid the investments on the Dow jones and the Nikkei.
http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation
http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/aktier/listed-companies/stockholm

For example, 2 days ago, I was looking at the stock EDF. Its trend is clearly bearish but there is an interesting dividend (8%).
http://www.boursorama.com/cours.phtml?symbole=1rPEDF
Because of its involvement in the Areva case (Areva, world leader in nuclear energy, is on the brink of bankruptcy: http://www.wsj.com/articles/french-government-to-pour-cash-into-beleaguered-areva-1433352569), EDF just announced it was going to revalue its assets, include asset impairments charge in its results, and reduce the dividends. In these conditions, I think that the stock will keep sliding.
(http://www.landolia.com/photo/europe/france/photo-9352-12-05-08-11-41-59.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on January 21, 2016, 07:50 PM
@Scarface - how is it that a devout pessimist and defeatist like yourself invest money in the stock market? I don't have much money, but if I did I would not invest one cent. There is no difference between playing the stock market and gambling in a casino. Either way the cards are stacked against you.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 22, 2016, 05:16 AM
Instead of saying I'm defeatist, why don't you give your opinion on the markets humbert?
I'm pessimistic about the economic situation in the world, that's true. So are the IMF and a few economists.
A few months ago, I was warning about a bubble on the markets, It turned out I was right, you can read again my messages. when I advised to buy vergnet, I was right. Same thing for Arcelor mittal...
In fact I've been overly optimistic since I invested in some biotech stocks in september 2015 that crumbled.
Well, for the moment there is still a big rebound. I missed it, but I'm not buying now. if the markets keep rising by a few percents, I will buy some shorts, once again.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Shadow.97 on January 24, 2016, 08:22 PM
I logged in today, and looked at everything(not been able to log in for a while) well, a profit on 1.52 SEK(roughly 0.16 euro).. in total.. Thats good enough for me, I can go buy myself a lolipop now.
I managed to get a much better bank deal than I had before, so I have a bank which gives me 0.5% interest rate. Its not the best, but compared to my 0% i had before, its much better. There was another deal for 1.5% interest rate, but I didnt want that because the terms&conditions were a bit meh..
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Vasudev on January 25, 2016, 01:57 AM
So most of them invested in stock markets? I don't know abcd's of stock market and moreover I'm always struck with bad luck with these matters.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 25, 2016, 05:43 PM
The dow Jones took a header tonight, losing 1.29%, after some mixed results of US firms were published...




Tonight, I ate at a Pakistani restaurant, and I chose some chicken pakora and some tika masala Shrimps with rice. Certainly usmangujjar and vasudev are familiar with that food.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Vasudev on January 26, 2016, 10:26 AM

Tonight, I ate at a Pakistani restaurant, and I chose some chicken pakora and some tika masala Shrimps with rice. Certainly usmangujjar and vasudev are familiar with that food.
Today I had some tikka masala too. One more thing, exam results are yet to come, some of them being poor to worse performance. only time will tell and will it re-spawn another tale is yet to know.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Shadow.97 on January 31, 2016, 10:12 AM

Tonight, I ate at a Pakistani restaurant, and I chose some chicken pakora and some tika masala Shrimps with rice. Certainly usmangujjar and vasudev are familiar with that food.
Today I had some tikka masala too. One more thing, exam results are yet to come, some of them being poor to worse performance. only time will tell and will it re-spawn another tale is yet to know.
My exam grades just came back, I'm very satisfied with having 75% B or higher.  ::) Mainly because I never do homework, and I mainly just do nothing at lessons, I just improvise during exams.. Well it has worked for me, and is a great way to decrease stress in life. Swedish school is a joke nowdays. Sadly..

Talking about Finance, do you believe you could live a life with little to no income? I mean, after you get a house, and the necessities such as a well, farm, tools, etc.
I've been starting to look more and more into it, and I see a way of doing it, by actually having your house as a job, i.e small-scale farming.. A dream of mine is to be fully self-sufficient.. Thought, I wish I had someone to do it together with, because it would make it all a hell lot easier.
The things that worry me the most if I do actually manage to get a house etc in not the far distant future, is: (if I want to be self-sufficient)..
Heat?
Power by windmill and tesla-like wall battery?
What to do during winters, and how would I make myself, and i.e animals, crops survive..
.. Internet is most likely no issue, I'll just buy some huge *** antenna and steal someone's wifi and expect 0.01 mbit.  ::) No, not really. but well, internet is no necessity as long as you have a small database with information.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Vasudev on January 31, 2016, 11:18 AM

Tonight, I ate at a Pakistani restaurant, and I chose some chicken pakora and some tika masala Shrimps with rice. Certainly usmangujjar and vasudev are familiar with that food.
Today I had some tikka masala too. One more thing, exam results are yet to come, some of them being poor to worse performance. only time will tell and will it re-spawn another tale is yet to know.
My exam grades just came back, I'm very satisfied with having 75% B or higher.  ::) Mainly because I never do homework, and I mainly just do nothing at lessons, I just improvise during exams.. Well it has worked for me, and is a great way to decrease stress in life. Swedish school is a joke nowdays. Sadly..

Talking about Finance, do you believe you could live a life with little to no income? I mean, after you get a house, and the necessities such as a well, farm, tools, etc.
I've been starting to look more and more into it, and I see a way of doing it, by actually having your house as a job, i.e small-scale farming.. A dream of mine is to be fully self-sufficient.. Thought, I wish I had someone to do it together with, because it would make it all a hell lot easier.
The things that worry me the most if I do actually manage to get a house etc in not the far distant future, is: (if I want to be self-sufficient)..
Heat?
Power by windmill and tesla-like wall battery?
What to do during winters, and how would I make myself, and i.e animals, crops survive..
.. Internet is most likely no issue, I'll just buy some huge *** antenna and steal someone's wifi and expect 0.01 mbit.  ::) No, not really. but well, internet is no necessity as long as you have a small database with information.
Even I scored 60% in bachelors.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 31, 2016, 02:13 PM
Quote
Talking about Finance, do you believe you could live a life with little to no income? I mean, after you get a house, and the necessities such as a well, farm, tools, etc.
I've been starting to look more and more into it, and I see a way of doing it, by actually having your house as a job, i.e small-scale farming.. A dream of mine is to be fully self-sufficient.. Thought, I wish I had someone to do it together with, because it would make it all a hell lot easier.
The things that worry me the most if I do actually manage to get a house etc in not the far distant future, is: (if I want to be self-sufficient)..
Heat?
Power by windmill and tesla-like wall battery?
What to do during winters, and how would I make myself, and i.e animals, crops survive..


Perhaps you can live with little income if you are self sufficient for food, for example you can have a hen-house, a vegetable garden, but it means you live in a farm. If you have no other ways to earn money that implies you are selling a part of the food output to be able to buy water, grains of wheat for the chickens, and pay for recurring bills...

As for electricity, a windmill is very expensive, but maybe you can afford some solar panels on a roof, for at least 10000-15000 euros. My father has been using a solar system on his roof for years, and it’s working, but the electricity is sold because this electricity is subsidized, and otherwise he would not be self sufficient.




Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 02, 2016, 05:29 AM
Today, the cac 40 is currently losing 1.8% and the dax 1.1%

In fact, S&P downgraded Shell, and sees a significant likelihood of downgrades for several Europe-based integrated oil and gas majors in the next weeks.
"We now believe many major oil and gas companies' current and prospective core debt coverage metrics are likely to remain below our rating guidelines for two or three years as the industry adjusts to lower prices," S&P analysts said in the report.
a link for the cac40: http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/
a link for the dax: http://www.investing.com/indices/germany-30
a link for the dow jones: http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on February 08, 2016, 10:38 AM
Deutsche bank really worries me.

Its share has lost more than 30 % in a month. It lost 10+% today.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 08, 2016, 01:43 PM
Quote
Deutsche bank really worries me.

Its share has lost more than 30 % in a month. It lost 10+% today.

That's right harkaz, -38% since 1 January, it's quite a big dive. I bought some shares of Deutsche bank in 2014 at 24 euros per share, and I sold a little above, at 26 euros if I remember well. But even at this time Deutsche Bank was not really healthy. A few months before they had made a capital increase to wipe out losses.
A few days ago I was wondering if buying some stocks of Deutsche bank would be a good bet, this time...at 15 euros per share. But the fall in its stock prices was not unjustified, since they announced heavy losses, roughly 7 billion euros, I think. Instead, I bought some Credit agricole. It was not a good idea either. Well I invested a "small sum", not more than 2% of my capital. In fact, I think that the markets will keep sliding in the next few weeks. But contrary to Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole is still paying a dividend, for the moment.
(https://i.ibb.co/JqgPNy7/640585cac40drop.png)

I listened to BFM 2 hours ago, a radio dedicated to financial markets, and they talked about Deutsche Bank. They also talked about the fall in stock markets. While the cac 40 and dax 30 plunged by more than 3%, the Athens stock exchange crumbled by 8%...
They said that the investors were massively selling, to look to safe-heavens such as government bonds or gold.

On this forum, we have seen that everyday some people are registering, they certainly enjoy the forum content and its participants, even if the forum if less lively than before due to the lack of time of certain users. They can ask some questions in this thread if they want.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 09, 2016, 05:29 AM
I wanted to know if I should average down my position on Credit Agricole. So I just called a trader to ask him this question and he told me: It's too dangerous, keep your position, but don't try anything. He's predicting a further slide in stock markets.


Edit: the meltdown of the stock markets continue. When I first posted the cac was falling 0,5%. 20 minutes later, the cac 40 is dropping 2.10%, the dax 1.56% and Stockholm 1%.


(https://i.ibb.co/WHt5MvS/213718cac40drop2.png)


Since you have been very nice lately, I will update Java runtime environment tonight. There has been a small update. You will find it in the program section.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on February 11, 2016, 05:39 AM
(http://assets.bwbx.io/images/i8OqKbK2S_n0/v2/-1x-1.png)

We are the champions! Followed by big players like China, Germany and Japan.
Also in the group: Nigeria & Ukraine

Greece also suffers from a refugee crisis and this will only get worse.
We must be the most unstable country in the world right now.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 11, 2016, 10:57 AM
To harkaz: The world is going through a serious crisis and I don't think Greece is the worst country. But Greeks are also a bit responsible for what's happening: the lack of reforms and corruption are undermining Greece.
As for the refugee crisis, Well, 5 million Syrians have already left their country and there are still 10 million Syrians who are going to leave in the next weeks. It will be over soon, when Assad and Baghdadi are both alone in Syria.

Finally, the cac 40 plunged by 4,05% and the dax fell 2.90%. The Dow Jones is currently dropping more than 2%.

PS: I sent Ahmad a message to tell him some people on the forum are waiting for some news.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: harkaz on February 11, 2016, 03:42 PM
Certainly I need to rephrase it. We are not yet unstable. The risk is extreme however.

The problem with the refugees is currently financial; apart from the costs of supporting them there is the decline of tourism - the number one source of income for Greece.
But if a handful of terrorists among them decide to destabilize the country, the problem will become much greater.


Plus, there is the certainty of social unrest after a potential bail-in in Greece banks, which will lead to loss of deposits.

At the moment, relatively few people in Greece seem to fully realize the gravity of the situation.
And yes, you're right we're responsible for many things. The most important mistake, however, happened in 2010, when the Greek authorities decided not to default, in order to prevent something we will not prevent anyway: loss of deposits and grexit.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 14, 2016, 07:51 AM
Tonight, I’m going to hold an exceptional conference. For the investors of the forum, I’m going to talk about a real opportunity in Palestine.

A miracle comes out of the ground. Slowly, painfully, in the din and dust. The obstacles are numerous, the adverse winds powerful (I was wondering if my ellipse was correct here?). But stone by stone, Rawabi ceases to be just an architectural blueprint with a perfect geometry or a layout for visitors. Rawabi exists. And it confirms, after many years, its revolutionary destiny: to become the first modern Palestinian city, designed and built to serve its occupants. It will sweep aside many long-held beliefs on the Palestinian territories, according to which the only comfortable living areas are settlements, irrigated by the Israeli public money.
(http://s2.lemde.fr/image/2016/02/09/534x0/4862134_6_8866_2016-02-09-8755aeb-996-1ymu290_caa5ca211acbb98e1f768f3886e8c4a4.jpg)
It is also necessary that some people come to Rawabi. The occupants are trickling in, while cranes and workers are busy on this enormous project, located nine kilometers north of Ramallah, the capital of the West Bank.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HPC5bvNRelo/Tb4IGpZnOHI/AAAAAAAAFm4/hZaCy8vfS_0/s400/image-207830-thumbflex-mbmw-1.jpg)
On a nearby hill, Jewish inhabitants of the Ateret settlement observe developments with concern. Three times, mysterious hands tore the large Palestinian flag floating atop Rawabi. For now, two neighborhoods on the twenty-three that count the city are already operational. The center, built in the shape of letter Q - as Qatar, the main funder, through the company Qatari Diar - will house shops, restaurants, cinemas, conference rooms, and space for young entrepreneurs.
A dream of a middle class. Everything is eco-friendly and accessible for the disabled. No satellite dishes or water tanks on roofs, as elsewhere in the Palestinian territories. The used water is treated in a specially built factory, power cables and fiber optics buried. Rawabi hopes to become an incubator for start-up, inspired by the extraordinary Israeli successes in this area. There is a mosque, a Greek Orthodox church and a Roman amphitheater deviation of 15 000 seats, adjoining sports fields. The dream would be to see  the greatest Arabic artists in this majestic setting.
On clear days, it seems that one can distinguish the sea in the distance, and the contours of Tel Aviv. A fully equipped medical center will come out of the ground. A town hall will host the first town councilor. Three schools are also planned, but their construction has been delayed for lack of funds. They are due to open in September 2016. Total cost of Rawabi, at this hour: 1.2 billion $, against 850 million originally planned.
(http://s1.lemde.fr/image/2016/02/09/534x0/4862131_6_5c1e_2016-02-09-69bc992-31838-dffi5h_91f155aec621d3fe46cf95383ab7b14a.jpg)

Cleanliness is impeccable, walkways do not resound with children’s shouts. It will take a few months before the first stores - grocery and pharmacy - enable residents to obtain fresh supplies. None of this has deterred the Al-Gabareen family. Raga, 30, and her husband, Mohammed, 34, complete the unpacking  of the boxes. The hotplates are not yet set, so they temporarily installed a gas tank and a stove in the kitchen. The family lived in Al-Bireh, near Ramallah, on a busy street, no garden or lift. Here they marvel at their new surroundings, 190 square meters smelling fresh paint and new leather. Until  some buddies appear in the staircase, the children are glued in front of a big TV showing cartoons. "Right now, we're the only ones living in the building, it's weird but very relaxing, said Raga. Families come to us for advice before moving. "

Manager in an advertising agency, she explains their approach. "Rawabi is a smart city, all facilities are planned in advance, she said. I want my children to grow in a secure and ecological environment. "The couple bought the apartment for 126,000 dollars. they paid 15% of the contracted amount and took out bank loan with a 4.75% interest rate. Prestigious foreign visitors who came here have necessarily been impressed. They also wondered if there were enough Palestinians with comfortable incomes to be able to make such an investment.
(http://s2.lemde.fr/image/2016/02/09/534x0/4862132_6_4088_en-septembre-2015_58857730f7119d58bef9b72da9a8bddf.jpg)

To date, 650 apartments were sold. Once completed, Rawabi will count 6 000 flats. Candidates are attracted by both the comfort and modern facilities offered by the space, but also by price. "It is 25% cheaper than Nablus, or Ramallah, said Amir Dajani, deputy manager of the site. We want to capitalize on the young and educated population, thanks to the nearby Beir Zeit University. "Among the buyers, there are Christians, people living in Israel or Palestinians living abroad, wishing to invest in a future project. But the developer is careful not to turn Rawabi into a desert city.
Bashar Masri is not tired of observing the first removal trucks entering Rawabi. Aged 54, the owner of Massar International is one of the richest Palestinian entrepreneurs. He made his fortune in real estate projects in the Middle East and North Africa. On the wall, a map of the city, which looks like a beetle. "This is the largest project in Palestinian history, he said. My vision is not Rawabi, but the domino effect it will cause. The lack of housing in the West Bank amounts to 200 000 units. We are building here in 6 000. I believe that a Palestinian state is in the making, but it will require decades. The issue is not that the Israeli occupation will end one day. It's certain. The question is: what will be the nature of our state? What healthy economy? "
Bashar Masri is an enduring visionary. He has been obsessed with Rawabi since 2007. The biggest problem yet to solve is the road. A single access, narrow road allows to reach Rawabi. The city is located in Area A, under control of the Palestinian Authority. But building a wide, multi-lane road, which would reach Ramallah in 10 minutes through Area C, requires the agreement of the Israeli administration. "They will perhaps accept, sighs Mr. Masri. But the devil is in the details. Suddenly, they ask for an environmental impact study and another one one the traffic expected ... "
Masri did everything to politicize Rawabi, so as not to become hostage to the conflict. Since Palestinian officials themselves are both unable to perceive the symbolic power of the project, and not much interested in it, the contractor went on his way, alone. "The Authority [PA] has given us a moral and political support, but without investing a single penny. They should, through tax collection, install electricity, police station, fire station, access roads! "
Before the new wave of violence, in October, he had observed a renewed interest in his new city. Since, the restrictions reinforced by Israel on travel have slowed the construction site, including the movement of workers from Hebron's southernmost territory. Some contractors have even decided to rent their apartments, near Rawabi.
For several years, Mr. Masri has been criticized, envied. He has been criticized, at first, for expropriating the inhabitants of twelve villages around, of which a part of the land was bought. Then for acquiring building materials in Israel and thus stimulating the economy of the occupant. "Some considered that Rawabi endorsed the occupation, since everything was done through discussions with Israelis, said a member of the executive committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). But if you do something to protect our land, it is positive in the end. "So," collaborator "rather than resistant, Bashar Masri? "I hate the settlements, but I will not give the hilltops to these people breaks off the businessman. I prefer ignoring that passenger emotional resentment. "

(http://s1.lemde.fr/image/2016/02/09/534x0/4862135_6_fd05_2016-02-09-18aea97-31788-1itw2cd_c5799fbd1742aec3c992f8e319113cb7.jpg)

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 14, 2016, 11:37 AM
I wanted to hold another conference to explain why banking stocks tumbled. Yoda, zeromido, iih or humbert may be wondering if it's a paradigm shift or a disproportionate reaction of the shareholder.
Unfortunately, I washed my keyboard and it's not working anymore, Ive got to use my phone and it's not very handy. However I'm going to sum up what I wanted to say.

A new economic cycle started in 2008, driven by 3 factors: demography, a new technological revolution, the debt burden of the states. These 3 elements involve a long period of sluggish growth and deflation, therefore the value of assets must be adjusted. The adjustment already took place on raw materials in emerging countries. It's normal that it now takes place on the financial markets.

The collapse of the banking stocks is not the sign of a new financial crisis, but rather the sign of a massive valuation adjustment. Without speculation, banks are just products distributors, and there is no reason that they are better valued than Carrefour or other distributors.
It's this adjustment that is underway, amplified by negative rates that have a destructive impact on the margins of the financial distribution groups. As for fragile countries like Greece or Portugal, a grouping or a merger of the banks with a bailout plan will probably prove necessary.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 18, 2016, 06:46 PM
Last time, I talked about Rawabi and I hope that you found the conference interesting. Well, to be honest, I would not invest in real estate in Rawabi because I don’t like what is “kitsch” and while accommodation in Rawabi is certainly comfortable, I prefer living in a town which has a long history and where the buildings are not all the same. Ten years ago I visited Naples, where I was accommodated in the house of an acquaintance and I to be honest I didn’t like it. Even if there was a tennis court in front of the house, I was gripped by a kind of malaise since all the houses were identical, with an American flag. The streets were all the same too. However, that wasn’t the case in Miami.



Tonight, I’m going to hold another exceptional conference, and give you a quick insight of the situation in Salton Sea, California. Contrary to Palestine, the media have not the habit of talking about the golden state in negative terms. Because of the mass media, we tend to have manicheistic view of the current affairs, but things are more complex.
Indeed, we usually read articles about the tech firms of the silicon valley or the movie makers of Hollywood. Actually, few articles are talking about the numerous homeless persons or the ecological disaster taking place in Salton Sea. This conference is not meant to be a deterrent to those who want to settle in California, but a reminder that the most populated and richest state of the US is facing big problems due to the lack of measures tackling water consumption and irrigation.

The Salton Sea was born by chance between 1905 and 1907 when the Colorado River broke through diversion canals in the irrigation system in Imperial County, in the South East of California.
This salty lake is dying the 1970s, evaporating, its waters lead to the extinction of fauna and release toxic products. It is a programmed catastrophe that told in pictures by the photographer Torbjørn Rødland.

What is striking when you arrive at the edge of Salton Sea is a pungent smell that stings the nose and creeps into the throat. A mixture of rot and emanation of chemicals. From a distance, the lake has kept its turquoise blue background of glowing rocks and exudes a magic that has long been a postcard setting. From close up, it offers a spectacle of desolation: stunted palm trees, scorched earth salt, smelly mud, and most especially, thousands of dead fish that form a morbid ribbon all along the shore. The Show is unveiled here by Torbjørn Rødland, through his photos. This Norwegian artist has been living in Los Angeles for several years and seeks to call into question the contemporary society and its excesses. Salton Sea could not be a better place...

In 1905, the failure of a dam on the Colorado River let out tons of water that found refuge in a desert valley, a few kilometers from Palm Springs. a lake of 55 kilometers long and twenty kilometers wide formed, the largest in California. A boon for area farmers, who grew crops and plantations. In the 1950s, the place became a popular tourist destination.
The lake that formed instead of a sea that vanished thousands of years ago is two times saltier than the Pacific. Fishes were introduced and throve in this new habitat. Competitions were organized, a port was built. A town soon, Salton City, then another, Bombay Beach came out of the ground and motels sprang up like mushrooms. Water sports then expanded to attract celebrities. Frank Sinatra had his habits in Salton Sea, Jerry Lewis and the Marx Brothers as well. At its height, Salton Sea attracted a million and a half visitors a year, more than Yosemite.

But from 1970, the station became a nightmare. The water began evaporating, the salt concentration of the lake increased, accelerating evaporation. A vicious circle was soon fatal to fishes: due to the lack of depth, they died, scaring away tourists. Hotels, restaurants, bars closed one after the other. The shores of Lake take rapidly became a ghost town: abandoned houses, mobile homes carcasses, boats remains. Today, most of the inhabitants have gone, the port closed more than ten years ago. Like the Yacht Club and the shops. The golf course has not a blade of grass. Only survive migratory birds dancing around the fishes frozen in salt.

Salton Sea is cursed:  with the evaporation of water, phosphates and pesticides due to the development of agriculture that were lying in the bottom of the lake come up to the surface and contaminate the region at the mercy of storms. A study reported that rates of lung and respiratory cancer are four times higher here than in the rest of the United States. If the sea continues to dry up, the entire Coachella Valley could become uninhabitable and one and half million Americans could be forced to relocate. Many environmental protection organizations are sounding the alarm bell. Certainly the evaporation of water is inexorable, but measures can be taken to conserve wildlife and protect the environment. But Salton Sea is far from Los Angeles and San Diego, and the fate of the people who still live there, a poor population, made up of Latinos for 80%, hardly stirs the authorities.


Today these lunar landscapes only attract penniless retirees coming in caravans to enjoy the sun in winter. The stench does not seem to bother them. They spend their days playing bowls and chatting, sitting on their folding chairs.

(https://i.ibb.co/cDyLRrr/Salton-Sea-Beach-29ee9.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/bgbyPpL/inhabitants-left.jpg)

(http://s2.lemde.fr/image/2016/02/15/0x0/4865661_6_2391_sonny-bono-du-duo-sonny-cher-maire-de-palm_afce6635f836318bfc611dad0d2e02cf.jpg)
Sonny Bono, mayor of Palm Springs from 1988 to 1992, was one of the first to denounce the ecological disaster to come.

(http://s2.lemde.fr/image/2016/02/15/0x0/4865659_6_73f1_rendre-a-l-amerique-sa-grandeur-ce-slogan_91d745314dc17803d815672c65c0b7c8.jpg)
"Make America great again": this campaign slogan has been used over the years by several politicians in the United States. The latest one: Donald Trump.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on March 10, 2016, 10:31 AM
The market is now crumbling: the cac 40 and the dax are falling by more than 1% after rising by 3% a few hours ago...
Visibly, the decision of the ECB did not reassure the investors, who must be wondering if the central banks have not lost control of the situation. I earnt some money with my strategy today, even though I sold the double short dax a bit too early
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on March 10, 2016, 07:13 PM
I advise you to sell your stocks

Who other than you on this forum owns stock? Playing the stock market is no different than gambling in a casino, unless of course you have inside information.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Shadow.97 on March 13, 2016, 04:36 AM
I advise you to sell your stocks

Who other than you on this forum owns stock? Playing the stock market is no different than gambling in a casino, unless of course you have inside information.
I do. Slowly but surely I'm actually getting profit.
2% increase of value from January 1'st.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on March 21, 2016, 09:55 PM
Scarface - I certainly hope you're right about your predictions. I still believe that when it comes to playing the stock market, no matter how logical or fact-based your estimation might be, in the end you're taking a gamble. The only real way to succeed in the stock market is to have inside information.

Then again I suppose it could also be argued that nothing is life is guaranteed except death and taxes.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on April 12, 2016, 11:13 AM
Tonight, I'm holding a conference to talk about the factors that determines the life expectancy of the poorest in the United States. We are going to see that besides the financial factor, the geographical factor is an essential parameter.

Inequality in the United States does not materialize only financially but also in terms of life expectancy depending on where you live. Thus, when one is poor, the likelihood of having a shorter life is greater if you live in Detroit (Michigan) and in Cincinnati (Ohio) rather than in New York or in Los Angeles (California). This is the conclusion of eight researchers in a study published on Monday, April 11 in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Detroit
(https://i.ibb.co/PNbdRy0/detroit-fight-shows-why-public-pensions-are-bound-for-problems1.jpg)

The study was based on a review of 1.4 billion tax documents of people aged 40 to 76 years over a period that spans from 1999 to 2014. It first shows that men among the richest 1% live fifteen years longer on average than those belonging to the category of the poorest 1% (for women the gap is reduced to ten years). Then, if we broaden the population segment to the richest 5% and the poorest 5%, the authors find that the gap in life expectancy is growing. Thus, when the former realized a gain of over two years over the considered period, the average life expectancy for the latter remained virtually unchanged. A study by the Brookings Institution published in February had already highlighted the worsening of the gap in life expectancy by income.

The current situation is such that an American of 40 years old whose incomes are in the lowest percentile has a life expectancy similar to the one in Sudan (roughly 62) and lower to the one in Pakistan (67) or Palestine (72). However when one belongs to the highest percentile, life expectancy in the US is one of the highest in the world, above the one in Greece (81).

Islamabad
(http://i1.wp.com/islamabadscene.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/20130817_170043.jpg)

Greece
(http://www.yourgreekisland.com/wp-content/uploads/skiathos-greece/skiathos_thumb.jpg)

Local policies in question

But the originality of the study is to demonstrate the geographical impact on life expectancy. If for the rich it is almost zero, for the poor, however, the differences are significant. Thus, life expectancy for men in the poorest quartile reached 79.5 in New York, 79 in Los Angeles years or 78.3 in Miami (Florida). But it is only 74.6 in Indianapolis (Indiana), 74.8 in Detroit and Dayton (Ohio). Basically in this category of population we live on average four to five more years older in the town of East and West coasts of the United States than in the industrial Midwest.

The economic and demographic decline of this region is not necessarily the cause of the gap in life expectancy, according to the authors. The key explanation and cause of these disparities are on the local political side to prompt the adoption of a healthier lifestyle such as smoking bans or fight against obesity programs. The study finds that it is in towns where the proportion of university graduates is the most significant that this type of action is most often adopted. New York, where proactive policies were carried out against tobacco or fats and sugar in food is quite symptomatic.

However, the study does not clearly establish a correlation between the rate of health insurance expenditures for the poor (Medicaid) or the proportion of the population benefiting from the aid and a better life expectancy of the poor. Without underestimating the importance of this type of policy, the authors of the study point out that the measures that influence behavior in terms of lifestyle are much more critical.

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 07, 2016, 01:48 PM
Tonight, I’m holding another conference about the financial markets. If some readers have questions or remarks, they can react and participate.


The bull market we are witnessing is almost in the order of the unreal; it is currently the second longest bull market, and could become the first shortly. The S&P500 rose on average by 10% over the past 19 months, it avoided the 20% decline that characterizes the beginning of a bear market. This increase began on the date of the inauguration of President Barack Obama on 3 January 2009 and continues today, a total of 2607 days. In term of bull market, only the period between 1949 and 1956 could compete. As for the biggest bull rally, it took place from the 1990s to the Internet and technology bubble, a period of 3452 cumulative days.

(https://i.ibb.co/C2CN9Jx/1602951-SP600x293.png)

Currently, the situation that we know should warn us; because the bullish rally shows a few signs of fatigue. The US index decreased YoY, and the S&P 500 companies have announced their lowest profits for the last 6 effective years, while economists forecasters constantly revise their growth estimates downwards. The European indexes started to decline last summer, and despite a rebound after a catastrophic start to the year, the trend seems to be bearish, as we have seen this week.

7 years ago we witnessed a true fool's game. The Fed and other central banks have repeatedly shown that they were ready to inject more money into the financial system, at the first signs of turbulence in stock markets.

Jim Paulsen, an analyst at Wells Capital Management, a fund management which handles nearly 337 billion $ and is based in Minneapolis, said he does not remember having experienced a bull market after the war with such chronic or persistent fear. It's very paradoxical, because investors expect at every moment the end of the world but are dragged in reluctantly on the markets.

What characterizes this bull market is its ability to constantly evolve higher while we encounter a period of increasingly weak economic growth. In March 2009, the US GDP in the first quarter fell by 3.7%, its biggest collapse with that of 1946. Since then, the GDP rose by an average of only 0.9% per year. This difference is huge!

(https://i.ibb.co/y03DgvN/4490362-SP600x338.png)

Even without growth this year, the profits of S&P500 stood at approximately $ 118 per share, approximately twice those recorded in 2009. Profit margins begin to decline after reaching a peak in 2014.

The other element to consider is the Price-sales ratio. The index is near its highest level reached 15 years ago.

(https://i.ibb.co/L64vB3n/8347343-SP600x338.png)

Investors are now increasingly worried. They are concerned among other things, by the level of global debt, the budget deadlock in which the US government has strayed, the threats of a downturn of the Chinese economy, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the situation in Greece and the euro area.

But despite all these risks, equity valuations unexpectedly climbed, they are 30% higher than those in 2007. 2007, the year before the biggest stock market crash since 1930.

However, the fears are not confined only to valuations. Anxiety persists because of negative interest rates. These rates were introduced by central banks in Europe and Japan. Moreover, the Brexit inevitably entails a number of uncertainties. What will the British electorate decide?
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 25, 2016, 11:22 AM
Today, I’m going to hold an exceptional conference to give you a brief overview of what happened on the stock markets last Friday. Then I will talk about my strategy.


The stock markets fell sharply on Friday June 24 in the world, following the shock of the British vote in favor of their exit from the European Union, which caused the Sterling Pound to tumble and shook all the markets in the  world. The London Stock Exchange ended the day down 2.76%, Frankfurt fell by 6.82%, Paris by 8.04%, Madrid and Milan by 12.35% and 12.48%.
(https://i.ibb.co/djsB3d2/282924cac40.png)

Olivier Raingeard, chief economist at Neuflize OBC, declared that "the market reaction today is proportional to the surprise of the investors who, in recent days, largely anticipated the opposite scenario." "Volatility is clearly back and should continue in the coming days and weeks," he said.

The bloodshed was general in Europe, all sectors were affected, primarily the banks, the sector index Stoxx plunging by 14.28%. Conversely, investors flocked to safe havens such as German government bonds, yen, Swiss franc and gold. The shock is such that it could force the European Central Bank (ECB) to ease monetary policy again in the coming months, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to abandon its rate hike plans for this year.

In London, the FTSE 100 index fell by 175.13 points. Paradoxically, the London index suffered less than its equivalent on the continent because it has some number of multinationals that have little activity in Europe.

The most affected values were the titles of real estate developers and banks. British banks have recorded 17.7% dives for Barclays, 21% for Lloyds and 18.04% for Royal Bank of Scotland. Earlier in the day, noting that financial markets were dropping, the Bank of England had expressed willingness "to inject 250 billion pounds" to turn off the fever in the markets.

The CAC 40 finished down 8.04%. The CAC 40 index lost 359.17 points at 4 106.73 points in an exceptionally high trade volume of 11.7 billion euros. In early trading, the Paris market briefly collapsed by over 10%. However, it has remained above its yearly lows around 3900 points.

The financial sector, which had risen in recent days, was particularly affected. Among banking stocks, BNP Paribas fell by 17.40% at 39.40 euros; Credit Agricole by 14.00% at 7.65 euros, and Societe Generale by 20.57% at 28.80 euros.

The DAX also ended the session with a heavy fall, the index dropping by almost 7%.
For the main index of the Frankfurt's, this is the largest decline in a session since autumn 2008, when the financial crisis took its full extent in Europe. It still remains far from the historical decline of almost 13% on October 1989, or that of 8.49% on 11 September 2001.

Among the main losers in the DAX we can also find banking stocks. Deutsche Bank, whose British boss John Cryan sees negative consequences of Brexit "from all sides", was the most affected. With a loss of 14.13% at 13.37 euros, it is the largest decline of a DAX completely repainted in red. Commerzbank dropped by 12.99% at 6.20 euros.

The Ibex, the flagship index of Madrid suffered its biggest drop in its history, 12.35% at 7 787.70 points, after the victory of the yes for Brexit. The banking sector was the most affected: Banco Santander, very present in the UK, declined by 19.89%, at 3.38 euros, Bankia by 20.78% at 0.57 euro; and Banco Sabadell, by 19.29%, at 1.21 euro.

The Athens Stock Exchange declinted by 13.42%, the index of banks suffering significant losses.The main victims of this collapse are the four major banks, already fragile due to the recession and bad debts. Alfa dropped by 29.66%; National Bank of Greece, 29.45%; Piraeus Bank, 29.6%; and Eurobank 30%.

Wall Street has not been spared from the turmoil on Friday. While the decline accelerated Friday in mid-session, the Dow finally closed at -3.39%.

The British vote "poses a huge cloud of uncertainty," said Peter Cardillo, at First Financial Standard. According to him, "the decline is not going to stop, because nobody knows what will happen", leading investors to seek safe havens.




Personally, I felt there was an opportunity on Thursday night, whatever the outcome of the vote. I was almost certain the “No for brexit” would win, but I had no position at all, except some hybrigenics stocks.
(https://i.ibb.co/WVrpwCv/522068hyb.png)
As humbert would say, it was a lottery and it turned out that forecasters were indeed wrong since a slight victory of the No was expected. At 22pm, as markets were rising by 2% on the futures (Roughly 4,550 points for the cac40), I was planning to take a contrarian position (a short tracker) but while the outcome in favor of the Yes was looming large, I practically did not sleep a wink, despite the fact that I was working the next day, to follow the results in my white armchair. Finally, When I've eeen that there was a crash at the opening (-500 points on the futures for the cac 40), I took some big positions on the markets (some were not executed) on banking shares. I bought a large amount of Credit Agricole and SocGen stocks (I was not in front of my computer at the opening because I was in the tube to go to work at 9pm and trading of banking stocks was suspended anyway.
(https://i.ibb.co/fDpztMw/501264gle.png)
 Finally my purchase order on Aca was executed at the opening a few minutes after 9pm, and the one on SocGen a few seconds later (I knew there would be a moment of sheer panic and I put an order at 26.2, below the forecasted opening price at 27 euros (-25%).
This strategy was risky, after all, these stocks could have collapsed completely, but the risk/reward was interesting and it really paid off, several thousands euros of gains in 30 minutes. I sold these positions when I arrived at work, at 9.32pm.

(https://i.ibb.co/XJ7c04L/82542171219.jpg)


Probably, the users of the forum want to know what strategy to adopt from now on.
Well, in my opinion, the markets are going to bounce back, but on the middle term I stay rather bearish for the financial markets.
My forecasts for the cac40:
On the short term: rebound towards 4200 points (3-4%)
On the middle term: 3800 points, and probably lower.
The volatility is going to stay high. By the way, the Futures for Monday on ig markets are already bright red, but it’s not necessarily representative of the opening, things can change during the week end. At the closing on Friday, I bought back 300 Societe General stocks.
(https://i.ibb.co/dJv0jNq/88026988ig.png)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_3QsacXtz4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzUlQIJsQpY
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Shadow.97 on July 17, 2016, 01:45 PM
Tonight, I'm going to give you another brief overview of the stock markets.

nice read haha. Well, when you buy silver and such, how do you know if you own it.. Or is it like money on the bank. Its just there, but you cant really access it. Or can you take out 1kg silver and hold it?
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 17, 2016, 03:26 PM
Well, you know shadow97, I'm glad you are asking such interesting questions. As always, you seem broad-minded, it has become rare.
In this topic, like in the others of the forum, nobody talks because we are tackling interesting issues. Were we to talk about football, there would be thousands of imbeciles on the forum, inevitably.

To answer your question, I'm using a bank safe to store hard-to-replace documents, jewelry, gold and other valuables.
Here is a photo of some of my coins, in sealed packets.
(https://i.ibb.co/0GHWwFB/920058-WP20160712004.jpg)
If you are buying Gold or Silver, don't do like me, don't tell the people around you even your parents, they will laugh at you. Because they don't know anything about economy, and also because they are jealous since they have no money to buy Silver or Gold.


Now I'm going to tackle another question: is it the good timing to invest in stock markets or Gold?
Well, the last time you asked me a question in this topic, I guess I gave you a good piece of advice. When the Stockholm stock exchange was standing at 1622 points, I told you I would sell...It's now at 1372, 15% below.
As for now, I don't want to give you bad advice, since I'm a bit perplex: The markets have undergone a correction, but after the recent rebound I wouldn't come back. Central banks keep interest rates steady and at a low level, it's likely to reassure anxious investors and prompt stock prices to rise again (The Dow Jones reached new highs) but the economic situation is not as good as it seems. I read that in the UK, a slowdown of the economy is already underway. As for the rest of Europe, well the situation of certain banks is still pretty dire. The balance sheet of Deutsche Bank is not very beautiful according to various analysts.

As for precious metals, Well, if you decide to buy Gold or Silver, you must have a comfortable liquidity buffer.
Personally, I bought gold in 2014. It was not the perfect timing, but almost. At this time I was already aware that the BCE could announce a QE at any time. Actually, at this time the price of gold was a bit high, but the quantitative easing of the BCE dragged down the euro to 1.10$...(I bought some coins at 180 and 200 euros, they are now worth about 220 euros).
Investing in precious metals is the best way to be protected in case of devaluation anyway.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on July 17, 2016, 07:31 PM
What do you plan to do with those gold coins? Are you planning to speculate and sell them when the price of gold goes up or what?
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 26, 2016, 02:13 PM
Tonight I’m going to hold an exceptional conference to give you my opinion about the financial markets, and answer shadow97, because I think my previous reply was incomplete.

At present, it seems that financial markets are stagnating. In this context, buying shares can be a bit risky. We could think that ECB‘s quantitative easing is likely to be more favorable to Europe's equity markets than to America's, but the valuations of both of them are now high.
With the Dow Jones standing at 18500 points, the most aggressive traders of the forum can buy some bearish ETF. From this point of view, they can hedge their position or play purely speculatively with the UltraShort Dow 30 ETF named DXD (this fund seeks to deliver twice the inverse of the daily performance of the DJIA). As far as the European markets are concerned, I guess it is perhaps too late to invest in stocks and to early to invest in a bearish tracker (In case the cac40 and the dax are climbing by a few percents, maybe buying some BX4 and DSD could be wise).


Lately, I told shadow97 that gold and silver investments could be interesting. In fact, historically, gold and silver were not very good investments. They do not pay dividends and brokerage fees due upon the acquisition and sale or taxes on capital gains can be significant.
In fact, gold and silver should not take a significant part of your assets (a few percents, not more).
Today, what matters is to preserve one’s assets, a fortiori with the sorcerer's apprentices at the head of central banks.
This is why assets diversification is essential. I am convinced that the most active users on the forum, as humbert, Maher or usmangujjar are nodding in agreement, while the others must be wondering what the hell I'm saying.
By the way, humbert asked recently:
Quote
What do you plan to do with those gold coins?
Currently, I'm planning to keep my gold coins and my silver bars, as long as Doctor Draghi and and Mrs Yellen are printing money...what else?


Mid 2014, I bought dollars and Swiss francs for a few thousand euros. I told a few people I was buying foreign currencies but they just laughed.
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=1020.20
It turned out that a few months later, the euro collapsed against the dollar and the Swiss franc. I was vindicated. and I made an interesting, non taxable capital gain, almost 20% of the initial bet. With hindsight I should have bought more foreign currencies, but it's always easy to judge an investment thereafter.
Today, I have more trouble seeing opportunities, with the €/ $ and €/chf pairs respectively standing at 1.10 and 1.09.
If the British pound keeps falling, there may be a buying opportunity, even though I hardly see what catalyst could boost the pound.
For the most fearless investors the forum, I guess that the Syrian pound could be an interesting investment in the medium term, for the simple reason that it is not worth much. But it might be difficult to obtain this currency, and recent events are not calling for an improvement of the situation in Syria in the short term.
(https://i.ibb.co/Qmh6vVQ/329017eursyp.png)



PS: a new user named “demouser” seems to be particularly happy with the latest edition of windows 7 x64 lite. This is good news. After years of work, this version is indeed quite interesting.
Note that Next month I will probably not update it. Currently, I don’t have much time. I’m not planning to update windows 10 either.  Maybe I won't be present on the forum. I'm just tired.
Remember that the updates for net framework 4.6 needs to be manually installed, they fail with windows update (you must extract them, run the msi and it will ask the path for the .msi of the modified net framework lite, the link is somewhere in the rebase topic).
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 05, 2016, 06:03 AM
Yesterday evening, I deleted a few movies in the good movies topic. However, there are still a few interesting movies that you can download.


Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight of the financial markets.
Markets in Europe recovered slightly after earlier losses on Monday following the announcement from Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi that he intended to resign after a defeat in a key referendum.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up by about 1 percent after opening in the red.
A few weeks ago, I talked about Vergnet. It was climbing by 30% this morning, reaching 1.35 euros. I sold my position at 1.20 euros and made a tidy profit (Fortunately, I had sold my previous position bought at 1.23 euros just before its profit warning - and bought again several times between 1.04 and 1.10. Below 1 euro, I must admit that I had a significant virtual loss).
(https://i.ibb.co/dtD0ZJQ/280709vergnet.png)


As far as Wall Street is concerned, I'd say that a new era of increasing uncertainty is blowing.
In Los Angeles, some people are taking to the streets to demonstrate against Trump.
(http://s1.lemde.fr/image/2016/12/05/534x0/5043266_7_d6a4_manifestation-a-los-angeles-contre_f26be6da44470af9b08217c7c5d29543.jpg)


I was thinking about a Christmas present for Maher or for the regular users of the forum, some good chocolate, or something else (usmangujjar or vasudev for example).
If you can't afford some chocolate for Christmas, send me your address, maybe someone will deliver some gifts.
(http://67.media.tumblr.com/a18c3ff03932c938c3462a51a5441ba7/tumblr_nzlvov8fpT1umvpr8o2_250.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on December 06, 2016, 07:40 PM
Allan J. Lichman, a professor of history who correctedly predicted the outcome of every American election since 1984 and predicted a Trump victory 8 months ago, is now predicting that in all likelihood Trump will be impreached. I suppose time will tell.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 08, 2017, 07:36 AM
Today, I’m going to hold an exceptional conference about the end of oil. This conference is part of the topic about finance because of the future consequences on the economy.


The rapprochement between Exxon and the Kremlin is a symptom of the physical limits to growth.
According to the International Energy Agency and HSBC, it is necessary that the prices of the barrel go up, and quickly, if not the peak oil is likely to be imminent.
But can oil prices rise quickly?

Donald Trump claimed to appoint at the head of the American diplomacy the boss of the oil giant Exxon, Rex Tillerson. It’s not sure that the Senate validated this appointment, while the CIA and the NSA claimed that Vladimir Putin, a key partner of Exxon, managed to influence the US presidential campaign in favor of Trump.

"Tillerson Rex", by TOad
(https://i.ibb.co/0ChGx1p/786509tellersonrex.jpg)

This choice of the new American president, whatever happens, is symptomatic of the question discussed here: are we fighting against the physical limits to economic growth?
The Kremlin as well as Exxon have their backs to the wall facing this issue, and consider each other as emergency exits.



Exxon first. The growth of the American firm is eaten from the inside by the physical limits of its oil fields.
Exxon's oil production has declined slowly but steadily over the past ten years, although in the meantime the biggest oil firm has doubled its productive investments.

Doubling the fertilizer for a crop that decreases: there is a problem in the soil.
Exxon's crude oil extractions were 2,221 million barrels per day (Mb / d) in the third quarter of 2016, down 17% from a historical peak of 2.681 million barrels a day in 2006.
(https://i.ibb.co/jzXFRpP/198484exxonprodcapex.png)

Since 2015, the fall in oil prices has caused the investments of Exxon - as in the entire crude industry - to collapse, which does not bode well for the future production.
The roots of evil are deeper than the fall in prices. From 2011, when the barrel was worth more than $ 100 (compared to about $ 58 today), the billions spent to sustain production have continuously increased the free cash flow of 'Exxon

2011 is the date when Rex Tillerson imposed a sensational and perilous change on Exxon, partnering with Vladimir Putin. The goal is to develop - with hundreds of billions of potential investments over the next few decades - the two ultimate major targets on Earth for the petroleum industry, of which the real potential remains unknown: the Russian Arctic and the oil shale of Western Siberia.



Russia now. Russian oil production was maintained despite the fall in oil prices (to the surprise of all observers). But the conventional oil fields of Western Siberia are old and many are depleted. The total production of Russian oil is doomed to a long decline, repeated for several years the International Energy Agency, which insists in its latest annual report that “neither the future potential of the Arctic nor the Russian resources In shale oil are enough to compensate for the decline".

The Kremlin has an urgent and massive need for foreign capital and expertise, whose access remains hampered by the sanctions imposed by the Obama administration following the Ukrainian crisis.



The International Energy Agency (IEA), in the politically correct language of its latest annual report published in November, is insisting on certain points more openly than ever. Here are some of the most significant warnings:

- more than 50% of the world's oil fields have reached their production peaks, and will decline in the future;

- investments in the development of hydrocarbon production are expected to fall to 450 billion dollars in 2016, against a record amount of more than 700 billion before the prices fell;

- the annual discoveries are at their lowest level in 70 years;

- by 2025, a lack of 16 million barrels per day is expected, the equivalent of the production of Saudi Arabia and Iran, to fill the gap between the expected level of output and the decline in current production (94,5 Mb/d in 2015);

- this gap can be filled by new resources, provided that the investments quickly rise to more than 700 billion $, their record before the fall in oil prices (hypothesis of the "New Policies Scenario", see below) ;



More alarmist, the bank HSBC (which had already shown its concern about peak oil), highlighted the following facts in a September report entitled "Will the decline of mature fields lead to the next oil crisis? "

- at least 64% of world production is declining;

- by 2040 it will be necessary to develop more than 40 Mb/d of new resources (nearly half of the world production, or the equivalent of four Saudi Arabia) only to maintain the production at its Current level;

- small oil fields generally decline 2 times faster than large ones, and the world production of crude oil is increasingly dependent on small fields;

- "significant improvements in the production and efficiency of drilling in response to falling prices have masked the underlying decline rates experienced by many companies, but the degree to which these improvements can continue is becoming limited ".

It is necessary that the prices of the barrel go up, and quickly, in order to boost investments, otherwise the peak oil is likely to be imminent, warned the IEA and HSBC.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has been reiterating (for the last two years) that his main fear is that "investments may collapse, which could have major implications for security of supply in the years to come ".

An observation confirmed since September by eminent industry actors such as Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih ("If we do not plan enough investment, the world will pay a huge price in the form of shortages of oil "), or Total's CEO, Patrick Pouyanné (" if we do not invest enough ... In 2020, the offer will be insufficient ").

But can the prices of the barrel go up quickly enough?

Despite the cuts in production that OPEC members and several other producing countries, notably Russia, have committed to implement in the coming months, no major source of analysis anticipates a return of the crude oil at around $ 100 a barrel, the level that prevailed when investment was at its highest.

On the demand side, the evolution of the world economic situation leaves little room for anticipating a sharp increase in the prices of the barrel.

"Globalization" seems to be slowing down, despite historically low interest rates, judging by the evolution of international trade:
(https://i.ibb.co/gSXy32x/710553-Worldtradebyvolume2000-May2016.jpg)

The growth of world trade is historically closely linked to overall economic growth.

By far the main engine of this global growth, China's economy, highly dependent on its exports, is particularly threatened by the slowdown in international trade.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is ready to abandon the minimum target of 6.5% annual growth so far sanctified by Beijing, according to an indiscretion reported by the Bloomberg agency. At stake: concerns about the development of the Chinese debt, and an international environment made more uncertain by the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency.

The level of indebtedness of Chinese companies alone reached 171% of China's GDP in 2015, according to Standard & Poor's, twice as much as in the United States and Europe. While before the 2008 crisis, China needed a dollar of debt to generate a dollar of GDP, the ratio is now six dollars of debt to one dollar of GDP, reports Morgan Stanley!

Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and professor at Harvard, Kenneth Rogoff warned in a forum translated and published by Les Echos in early December:

    "Current markets are obsessed with the question of how far the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the next twelve months. They seem to lack long-term vision. The real concern should be on this other issue: Will it be able to lower rates in the next major recession? Given its difficulty in ensuring that its base rate will exceed 2% next year, there will be very little room for maneuver to make cuts in the event of a recession. (...) There may not be enough time before the next deep recession to lay the foundation for an effective policy of negative interest rates or to set a higher inflation target. But this is no excuse for not starting to examine these options closely. "

In other words, the growth potential of the global economy could be too low to sustain global oil production, our prime source of energy. This hypothesis, which seems to appear on the one hand, is a result of too low a rise in the incomes of the middle classes and on the other hand an excessive increase in the various costs induced by the necessarily increasing complexity of our technical societies.

The coming months are going to be instructive: "May you live in interesting times" ...


(https://i.ibb.co/sgPbkxG/759942-C1-So-Mp7-XUsmall.jpg)



Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on January 12, 2017, 07:39 PM
Let's hope that as you say oil starts to become scarce and the price begins to climb. It's the only way alternative sources of energy will become viable. That will not happen as long as the price of oil is on the floor.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 16, 2017, 02:40 PM
tonight, I'm going to answer the people of the forum, like shadow.97, who are probably wondering what my prognosis are in the current context.

Well, I’ve already been right several times. Those who bought some EDF, -22% in one year (http://www.boursorama.com/cours.phtml?symbole=1rPEDF) know it: I told you to stay away from this stock one year ago:
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg26271#msg26271

Now, what can I say? Well, I’m still advising you to stay away from the stock markets (I already said that a few days ago). Indeed, I think that 2017 is going to be a turning point: arrival of Trump, implementation of the Brexit, steep rise in oil prices.

Actually, the pro-growth policies likely to be enacted in the first half of 2017 by Trump, including corporate and personal tax cuts, increased spending on infrastructure and defense, and deregulation, may help to boost economic growth in 2017 and increase the economy’s potential growth rate (while changing the mix of growth drivers). But this is already taken into accounty by the markets?
However, they may also lead to some of the “overs” that tend to emerge at the end of expansions (overconfidence, overborrowing, overspending), naturally accelerating the economic cycle and bringing a recession sooner than otherwise might have been the case.

As far as oil is concerned, forecasts from the IEA suggest that oil prices will continue to rise gradually because the supply surplus is nearly gone and may soon be replaced by a supply shortfall. Given the huge number of exploration projects that have been trimmed back or canceled, discovery rates have fallen off a cliff. We can probably anticipate an actual oil supply crunch once demand exceeds the ability of OPEC spare capacity and American shale oil production to offset it, which could occur in 2017. A steep rise in oil price would inevitably trigger another recession.

If I had to give you my scenario for this year, well, taking into account the level of the stock markets, I’m expecting a 20% correction. And I think I’m rather optimistic.


(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2016/12/1483139274_d.jpg)



For the new users of the forum, some goodies:
Zion++ Fuchsia : https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4NsBhRUPihXUnRBYUhtVFNwZkk
The latest version of Flash AIO: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4NsBhRUPihXeGlEV2V1RE9YeUE
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 31, 2017, 12:36 PM
Lately, we have seen that shadow.97 was a bit disappointed, because he can’t find what he’s looking for on the forum : some very interesting messages.
That’s why tonight, I’m going to hold another conference about stock markets.

Actually, my strategy did not change. Since the stock markets have reached a stratospheric level, I’m not buying any stock any longer. (Yesterday I must say I was tempted to buy some Adocia stocks after the recent collapse, and it lost 13% today, once again).
This morning I sold ¼ of my position of an inverse EFT based on the s&p 500 (I made tiny capital gains). I prefer to be cautious, if the s&p 500 is climbing, I will buy some inverse ETF once again.
But in my opinion, a rounding top is forming and a bearish scenario is taking shape (after the trump bubble, this could be the kiss-cool effect).

According to another analyst that I’m quoting:
“The cyclical bull market in stocks that began in early 2009 has developed into one of the largest and most speculative bubbles of the past 100 years. Further, at a current duration of nearly eight years, the latest cyclical top is long overdue and could form at any time.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/pic80abf13d3cd3d4962a0dfa1c68f97c5d.png)

In terms of real GDP growth, the current economic expansion has been the weakest since the end of the Great Depression.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/pice07a0f16c9b72f2488e6fdda8c60890b.png)

If economic growth has been so poor during the past eight years, why has the stock market experienced such a strong advance during that time? Why is the S&P 500 index up a staggering 240% from the low in March 2009?
Those gains have been fueled primarily by the Federal Reserve and its reckless stimulus policies that have targeted risk assets such as stocks. By holding short-term interest rates near zero for seven years, the Federal Reserve has encouraged malinvestment and speculation while punishing saving, in the process creating massive market distortions and imbalances.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/picfab09cef5439c9c07744e56bf814bc3c.png)

As a result, the current risk/reward profile of the stock market from an investment perspective is at one of the two highest levels of the past 100 years. Only the peak in 2000 during the dotcom bubble created a more overvalued market than the current one.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/pic204de3377a3165c5eeb85164679d799d.png)

The current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index is now over 25 and it is priced to deliver slightly negative annual returns during the coming decade. Think about that. The stock market will likely be at or below current levels ten years from now. That is because there is always a cost for manipulating markets to this degree, and, in this case, the cost will ultimately prove to be severe. In essence, the Federal Reserve has pulled future gains into the present, setting the stage for many years of extremely poor performance.
Of course, because bubbles are highly irrational by nature, predicting the timing of their demise with any useful degree of statistical confidence is difficult. However, careful analysis of market data can indicate when a bubble is on the verge of collapse.
Our computer models monitor a large basket of data that have, historically, provided reliable signals with respect to long-term direction, and right now several indicators suggest that the current bubble is vulnerable. For example, our cyclical valuation and sentiment scores, which vary from an extremely bullish value of 100 to an extremely bearish value of -100, are both near bearish extremes.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/picfc4ee647c72b63c7a222d58b9dc43eb5.png)

Additionally, although market internal data such as breadth and volume have yet to exhibit similar weakness, both currently display the early signs of a negative divergence. Volume summation has started trending lower after forming a top in December that was much lower than the previous peak in July.
(https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/pic2250956d0f414e272dce59edd51556bd.png)

From an intermediate-term perspective, the stock market may also be in the process of reversing. In early November, our computer models correctly predicted the formation of the latest intermediate-term low, but after five weeks of strength, the S&P 500 index has struggled to move higher during the past six weeks.
A cycle high setup occurred this week, suggesting that an intermediate-term cycle high (ITCH) may have formed in early January. A cycle high signal could occur as soon as next week, so market behavior should be monitored carefully during the next several sessions.
As always, it is important to remember that a long-term top is a process, not an event. Anything can happen over short-term time periods, but the key to having consistent success over the long run as an investor and a trader is to stay aligned with the most likely scenarios and protect yourself from the unlikely ones.
There will come a time when the risk/reward profile of stocks is once again favorable and the judicious study of market data will signal when that next long opportunity develops, just as it did in March 2009. However, now is a time for extreme caution and we remain fully defensive from an investment perspective.”

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Aris99 on February 08, 2017, 07:49 AM
That's an awesome analysis and I registered her just to say how grateful I am. You're very smart.
I have a few questions. How often do you read the finance news? Which resource do you trust the most?
Because I read Yahoo finance and usually read the news when I'm on the way home on my smartphone. I find Yahoo apk very useful (take it from here theappsdepot (https://theappsdepot.com/) for Android, but I'm sure that for IOS you can find it at the Apple Store)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 08, 2017, 05:03 PM
That's an awesome analysis and I registered her just to say how grateful I am. You're very smart.
I have a few questions. How often do you read the finance news? Which resource do you trust the most?
Because I read Yahoo finance and usually read the news when I'm on the way to home on my smartphone. I find Yahoo apk very useful (take it from here theappsdepot (https://theappsdepot.com/) for Android, but I'm sure that for IOS you can find it the Apple Store)

Well, aris99, There is nothing brilliant in what I said here.
Actually, the analysis is mine, but the graphics are taken from the French website “objectifeco.com”.
Besides, I’m just trying to be consistent in my approach. Currently, the stock markets are expensive, and I think that the economy is not doing particularly well, it could even slump in the next months, for a number of reasons, including the rise in oil price and the specter of growing protectionism. In the United States, more and more people are out of work, I don't think those are the sign of a recovery (the new hires do not offset the rise in the working population).

From that slant, I’m just saying that you shouldn’t invest, the risk/reward is not good. Actually, I’ve bought inverse ETF and I have losses. Once again, I know an investor (fomerly known as father baboon), who is earning some money with a fund based on Gold stocks (btw, Newmont mining and goldcorp stocks climbed today). In the current context, the price of gold is climbing again, after a poor start to the year, and this trend could continue.
In my opinion, there is a stock market bubble, it’s quite clear for certain companies listed on the nasdaq (I advise against buying amazon or Facebook, they are terribly expensive), and I’m almost certain it will explode, the question is: when?
But in the short term, It seems I'm wrong. Even if the stock markets are not climbing any more, they are not going down either. It seems they don't know where to go. If they begin to plunge (notably the US stock markets), the downside potential is significant anyway.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Aris99 on February 10, 2017, 05:15 PM
Thank you, scarface! That is amazing that you make all analysis, as for me it's like a magic, to understand and predict the numbers, rates... I had a quick loo to objectifeco.com but French is not favorite language :)
You gave me an excellent advice, I'm very grateful!

P.S. It can be offtopic but you are quietly right about our situation with a labor market in our country. But my opinion that is a fault of our education system and the wrong choice of profession. We feel a lack of medical personal and highly educated blue-collar worker.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 12, 2017, 06:37 AM
Today, I'm holding an interesting conference in this topic, and I'm going justify, with various arguments, my previous analysis (the bubble on the stock markets, and why it could be about to pop). I hope Aris99, and some critics, like shadow.97, will be there to read it.

So Here are some evidence of the biggest financial bubble of all time

The "big ugly bubble" that Trump, then presidential candidate, had identified about the American markets is real. Financial bubbles have multiple facets (China, the real estate market, etc.). This list is by no means exhaustive. But here are some graphs I selected that are proving that we are in the presence of many bubbles. The larger these bubbles, the more severe the damage will be when they burst.


1. The trap of low rates:  the economist Lance Roberts explained with great clarity how interest rates and economic growth are linked. The real Fed key rate that can be seen stagnating below shows the quagmire into which the American central bank have sunk.

(https://cdn.publications-agora.com/elements/lca/newsletter/images/contenu/170210_LCA_taux_small.jpg)

According to Lance Roberts' explanation: "Yellen and the Fed are once again on the hunt for the imaginary 'scarecrow' of inflation - the latter is currently weaker than during any pre-recession period since the 1970s. The tightening of monetary policy, with already weak economic growth, can once again become problematic. The biggest fear of the Federal Reserve? The Inflationary pressures which continue to depress the national economy. Despite the billions of dollars injected by the Fed, the only real objective was to prevent the economy from falling into a full recession."


2. The slaves of the debt in view of the risk of the debt ratios, something that the Americans know well. From car financing to mortgages, debt is part of their everyday lives - and keeps growing.

(https://cdn.publications-agora.com/elements/lca/newsletter/images/contenu/170210_LCA_dette.jpg)

Wolf Richter wrote: "There are many ways to measure household debt and debt burdens. Comparing total household debt to the overall size of the economy as measured by GDP is one such measure. According to the household debt / GDP measure, Americans ranked tenth in the world with a ratio of 78.8%. One could almost speak of caution on their part compared to the peak reached just before the 2008 financial crisis.

3. Over-indebted China: Goldman Sachs revealed its estimate of the size of China's debt ... The level of public and private debt appears disproportionate to the size of the economy and growth.

(https://cdn.publications-agora.com/elements/lca/newsletter/images/contenu/170210_LCA_chine.jpg)

These indicators were designed by Goldman Sachs research. According to the latter, the current trend "raises the question of the medium-term sustainability of the Chinese economy, given the already very high debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years. "




So the question is: where is the needle that will burst the bubble? On January 3, 2017 Bill Bonner answered one of his readers who followed his advice and stayed out of the market (missing the recent rise): "Yes ... it's true. We have been cautious for a very long time. We see that the whole financial system is distorted, fragile and dangerous. As long as prices continue to climb, an investor can earn money by taking long positions on stocks. But in our opinion, the game was not worth the effort. We prefer to wait until the bubble explodes. When will this happen? Today ? Tomorrow? In five years ? Traditionally a bull market lasts 52 months. This one has now lasted 94 months. And the stocks price is visibly at the top of its range, and not at the bottom ... the S&P500 valuation currently represents 28 times the profits adjusted for cyclical variations. This is almost twice the 16 times that are the rule usually. To return to a more normal level, the equity market should lose more than one-third of its value, or nearly $ 7 trillion. Yes, stocks can still rise. The bull market could go on. But the risks increase every day that passes and every dollar earned."




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3xFJUCSOGs
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 17, 2017, 04:39 AM
One year ago, I held a conference about CGG (formerly known as CGG veritas), a leading geoscience company, and I was saying that you should avoid the stock of this company (by talking about a dire situation): http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg20727#msg20727
It's always interesting to come back and see if I was right.

(http://www.meretmarine.com/objets/39010.jpg)

One year later, its stock is worth 9 euros, against 65 euros when I was talking about it (the day before a capital increase, hence the 50% drop on 14 January). On 24 october 2016 it was standing at 27 euros and a few months later it lost 2 third of its value, standing at 9 euros.
(https://i.ibb.co/3srf5M3/300418cgg.png)

Well, since there is practically no more oil to be found, we can understand that this company does not make money any more. So I still advise you to forget this stock, despite the dilutive capital increase that took place on 14 january 2016 and its current price (the company still has a 2 billion dollars debt, and unless a new call on the markets, the company is heading for a bankruptcy). By the way, Portzamparc is stating that a new capital increase and a debt-to-equity swap is quite probable.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on March 06, 2017, 12:23 PM
Well, tonight I’m going to talk about snapchat, which was recently introduced on the stock exchange.


Snap, the app known for automatically deleting every photo and video shared on its platform after 24 hours, went public on the New York Stock Exchange. It was valued at about US$28 billion by investors and traders after surging almost 44 percent in a single day.
But is it really worth it when it’s losing so much money ? (more than US$500 million in just 2016).
Tonight,  it seems that this bubble is bursting, as the stock is currently losing 8%.
By the way, Marc Fiorentino, a French specialist of the financial markets, recently said in his newsletter that the valuation of Snap was “ridiculous”.

To put things into perspective, this is a list of tech firms that are losing millions upon millions of dollars every year but valued to be billion-dollar companies: Snap, Box, Twitter, Zynga, Instagram, Amazon, BlackBerry, Pandora, Weibo, Zillow, Sprint, Square, JD.com, Sony...
Could this be a sign that we’re in a tech bubble?
If all these tech startups and companies are losing money, quarter after quarter, why are investors still flocking to them? It’s most probably because of their belief in “disruptive innovation” and the firms’ abilities to do it.

The focus of these tech companies and startups right now is just growth. Nothing else seems to matter and that’s probably one of the biggest reasons why Uber, for example, is losing money so fast.
Other huge tech companies include Uber, Spotify and Airbnb on the most anticipated 2017 IPO list, which are supposedly considered the hottest IPOs particularly because of their estimated valuations.
But it isn’t too comforting to know that only Airbnb among those three is making profits in the most recent reports. Even then, this is Airbnb’s first time being profitable.



Undoubtedly, no one can ever predict the exact time of the next financial crisis. It may not exactly be a tech bust, it could be Trump‘s radical policies or it could even be a war.
In an episode of a popular Youtube show where multi-millionaire entrepreneur and coach Gary Vaynerchuk invited multi-billionaire business owner, author and coach Anthony “Tony” Robbins, they talked about an impending stock market crash.
They opined that the very fact of how everyone is so bullish about the economy, despite the eight-year long bull run, scares them.
Staying in cash and waiting for the opportunity is an advice that they gave. Those who are prepared when the opportunities arise will stand to benefit the most.

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on March 07, 2017, 03:38 PM
Well, since my piece of advice to sell snap, it roughly lost 14% (It finally lost 12% yesterday and 10% today). I think it's not over though. In my opinion, it's not worth more than a 2 dollars, but it seems the markets is not very rational lately.

Besides, I wanted to talk about the latest events occurring in North Korea. Clearly, that does not bode well for stock markets if a war breaks out in Asia.
Indeed, North Korea has warned that US and South Korean joint military exercises could result in “actual war.”
(https://www.nknews.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/kim-jong-un-632017.jpg)

North Korean diplomat Ju Yong Choi described the joint military exercises as “massive, unprecedented” and a “major cause of escalation of tension that might turn into actual war,” reported Reuters.
The diplomat, speaking in Geneva to a UN-sponsored conference on disarmament, said the ongoing exercises were aimed at conducting a “pre-emptive nuclear attack” against Pyongyang.
The latest comments come amid rising tensions on the peninsula, with the US deploying the first elements of its anti-missile defence system to South Korea.
In response, US Disarmament Ambassador Robert Wood said North Korea was "a pariah, an outlier" which violated international laws with its ballistic missile and nuclear tests.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on March 14, 2017, 09:32 PM
Kim Jong Un may be crazy but he's not stupid. He knows it he starts a war it's game over for him and his regime. You can bet borrowed money his "ally" China will turn its back on him.

I often wonder if all those horrible things you hear about North Korea are actually true. The press and the government's propaganda machine are notorious for lying, or at least exaggerating the truth.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on March 16, 2017, 04:05 PM
Tonight, I was broswing the website zero-hedge, which is always quite interesting and I found this article.
Well, it sounds rather realistic, and once again I want to warn you about the current stock markets.


Janet Yellen Wants To Deflate the Stock Bubble, by Phoenix Capital.

Today the Fed hiked rates for the third time in eleven years.

In so doing it has confirmed what many have long suspected: that the only thing that matters to the Fed is stock market levels.

The Fed certainly doesn’t care about GDP growth. If it did, it would be evident that now is NOT the time to be hiking rates.

Let’s take a look.

Last quarter’s GDP growth was abysmal at 1.8%. Since that time the Fed’s own GDP model has collapsed to just 0.9%. Look at the below chart and tell me you think it warrants two rate hikes in a three month period. We’re talking about a 2.5% GDP collapse in the space of six weeks.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2017/03/07/gdpnow-forecast-evolution_0.gif)

By the way, this is a rosy projection. If you run 1Q17 GDP numbers using actual consumption instead of projection consumption then GDP growth is non-existent or 0%.

Moreover, a historical perspective only adds evidence that the Fed isn’t looking at GDP numbers when deciding to hike rates. The 4Q15 rate hike makes sense… but 4Q16 and now again in 1Q17?!  Why would the Fed want to hike twice in three months during sub-2% GDP growth!?

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2017/03/07/fredgraph%281%29.png)

The simply answer is stock prices. When you look at a chart of the S&P 500, the 4Q15 hike makes sense. So does the decision to walk back additional hikes in 2016 (since the markets collapsed).

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2017/03/07/sc_3.png)

Now that the markets are once again roaring, the Fed has decided it’s time to start hiking again. And so it’s hiked twice in three months to attempt to deflate the stock market bubble.

The only problem with this is that stock bubbles don’t deflate easily. Usually they collapse in a big way. This time will be no different. We’ve got air pockets all the way down to 2,125 on the S&P 500.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2017/03/07/sc-1_1.png)

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on March 24, 2017, 03:11 PM
Tonight, I have good news for humbert.
Indeed, Trumpcare is probably dead even if Congress is going to vote on it anyway.

Despite hours of debate, last-minute amendments, and even an ultimatum from despot Trump, Republican lawmakers likely don’t have the votes to pass the party’s health care plan. But the White House says they’re going to hold the vote anyway.

And yet hours after House Speaker Paul Ryan visited the White House, apparently to break the news to Trump, Spicer said the vote would proceed anyway, at around 3:30 p.m.

Ryan’s visit was the latest bad omen in a day of developments that seemingly signaled defeat for the Obamacare-replacement bill, just hours before it was due up for a vote.

As a consequence, Wall Street is tumbling tonight, at least it's only a pretext since the market is terribly expensive. It's not what mnuchin thinks, he just said today he was very bullish and upbeat about the upside potential once Trump's measures are implemented (to ruin the American middle class).
Well, as for me, I'm very optimistic for the markets too (and a lot of my previous forecasts on this forum turned out to be accurate): I still believe that the dow jones and the s&p 500 are very expensive, and that there is a 40% downward potential.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on March 25, 2017, 08:45 PM
I totally agree. This despot Trump and the Republican fatcats are trying to deny health care to those that can't afford it so they won't have to pay taxes to support the system. Not only do these people make astronomical amounts of money, the their health care insurance payments don't even come out of their paychecks! One of their many companies takes care of that, then they write it off as an expense on their tax declaration. Truly their greed knows no bounds. Sadly this is only a temporary victory, rest assured the profiteers will not give up. Let's see for how much longer. Hopefully the guy who predicted Trump's victory is right -- he predicts an impeachment will happen.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on April 18, 2017, 05:42 AM
Today, the European stock markets are crumbling on fears that Marine le Pen could be elected in France.
In this context, I sold 8% of my short positions with some capital gains. I'm still waiting for a stock market crash of the s&p 500, which is, in my opinion, one of the most overvalued markets in the world with a price earning ratio of 26.

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on April 23, 2017, 11:02 PM
Today, the European stock markets are crumbling on fears that Marine le Pen could be elected in France.

People always imagine the worst scenario. Even it Marine gets elected, keep in mind she doesn't have the backing of most of the French people. At last count only 21.5% supported her, meaning that 79.5% don't. Only a dictator can get anything done with that kind of support.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 11, 2017, 06:22 AM
A few months ago, I told you to avoid snap stocks, since I think it's an empty shell with virtually no activities. Today I feel vindicated.
Indeed, When Snap listed its shares on the New York Stock Exchange in March, the floor of the exchange was festooned in the company’s signature yellow. Family members of Snap executives posed for photographs; some wore the company’s video-recording Spectacles. And as Snap’s two 20-something founders rang the opening bell, the crowd — including one of the founder’s fathers and a supermodel fiancée — applauded.

Yet just two months into its life as a public company, Snap’s celebration may already be ending.

On Wednesday, Snap, the parent of the messaging app Snapchat, reported earnings that missed Wall Street expectations in almost every regard. Not only did Snap record a $2.2 billion loss for the first quarter, its revenue was lighter than expected, and the company disclosed that its user growth was decelerating sharply. Investors punished the company, sending its stock down more than 25 percent in after-hours trading.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 29, 2017, 01:58 PM
Today the stock markets are declining on speculation that Mario Draghi’s ECB is poised to reduce unprecedented monetary stimulus. That sent yields higher, damping the allure of the non-interest-bearing metal.
In this environment, I'm convinced that markets are due for a correction. Politics, global instability, Greek Crisis, overvalued U.S. stock markets, debt limit, and declining GDP growth are several other warning signs.


But let's talk about Greece. After all, this is perhaps the country where we will go, if there is no more cheap oil. Not because it's economically healthy, otherwise we would go to West Bank, Palestine, which has a growth rate of 4% but because of it's geographic situation and also because several users of the forum could host us. What's more, Palestine, like Israel, is probably overwhelmed with applications for asylum. With a vip pass, like a Syrian or Eritrean passport, you can apply for asylum. But if you come from Sweden, Egypt, France, India, or Pakistan, you won't get anything. At least it would be possible for me to live in Greece, since I'm a European citizen.

(https://i.ibb.co/vsG8rBR/voyage-grece1.jpg)

So let's talk about the situation in Greece with a conference, titled "From the economic crisis to the demographic crisis".

The recession that has hit the country is accompanied by an unprecedented demographic crisis: the population is aging and declining, women have few children, and young people are leaving the country.

In Greece, according to Médecins du Monde, nearly one in four women born in the 1970s has no children. And the number of births has declined steadily since the start of the crisis according to Elstat, the Greek Statistics Authority, from 114 766 in 2010 to 94 134 in 2013 and 91 847 In 2015.

The Greek population is decreasing. It has fallen from 11.1 million in 2011 to 10.8 million in 2016. "The net balance between births and deaths has been negative since 2011 and this trend will accentuate: the number of deaths will increase because the generations who were born after the 1950s, in the years of the Greek baby boom, are now over 65 years old. Births will not increase as women of childbearing age do not make up a large part of the population and the fertility rate remains low, "said Vironas Kotsamanis, a professor of demography at the University of Thessaloniki.

Before the crisis, the Greek fertility rate was already standing at 1.5, and by 2012 it has dropped to 1.3 children per woman, while it must be at least two children per woman to ensure the renewal of generations. At the Rea private maternity clinic, Antonia Charitou, director of the Neonatal Unit, observes that "women have only one child now and usually quite late, after 30".

Ambient pessimism
Low wages, unemployment which affects 27% of women against 20% of men, ambient pessimism (according to the 2015 Eurobarometer, 70% of Greeks believe that the economic situation will deteriorate, compared with 46% across the Union European) have certainly influenced fertility at a time when it was beginning to increase again.

"The absence of family policy and the cuts in social spending demanded by the country's creditors [European Central Bank, European Union, International Monetary Fund] have also not encouraged women to have fewer children," says Vironas Kotsamanis. The allowances for a third child are ridiculous in Greece, around 50 euros per month. "

But Antonia Charitou also cites another reason for this low birth rate: "Young women who are now 30 years old and older have grown up in years of prosperity in Greece, when children were spoilt, attended private language classes, Extra-curricular activities. They want to offer their children the same way of life but it is not possible with the crisis ... "

The Scourge of Exodus
And there is an extra scourge for the Greek society: the exodus of an entire generation under the age of 40, of reproductive age. According to a survey published in July 2016 by Endeavor Greece, a network of young entrepreneurs, 350,000 Greeks reportedly expatriated between 2008 and 2016.

The demographic crisis does not bode well for the economy of the already exhausted country. "In about ten years, Greece will lose a large number of assets, notes, bitter, Vironas Kotsamanis. The population who can consume is decreasing, pension funds and the health care system will explode because people aged 85 and over are growing faster than other groups. It's difficult to be optimistic for the future of Greece in these conditions! "



Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 04, 2017, 02:10 PM
Last Friday evening, I read that the US Senate has passed the tax reform bill, and I think things will go awry in the US.
First off, Wall Street climbed and I was thinking that the debt problem was over: Donald Tramp decided to give all his fortune, out of generosity, to tackle indebtedness. Of course, this is not the case.

A French specialist, who worked at the Fed a few years ago, wrote an article titled "open bar on the Titanic". Here is a little excerpt:
"If I had been asked to come up with a plan that would maximize the budget deficit while generating as little economic benefit as possible, I would have took the one the US Senate has just adopted.
This tax reform massively lowers taxes on the wealthiest businesses and households, and this is paid by the vast majority of households. They are just enjoying a few temporary tax cuts to beautify the packaging.

A deficit without growth stimulus.
Such a deficit will do nothing for growth. A great deal of research has shown that fiscal stimulus can work, but according to very specific criteria. The best effect is achieved by targeted measures on households that will spend the aid received rather than saving it, or on investments supporting economic activity such as infrastructure spending. The Senate plan goes against these revenues.
The wealthiest households will not increase their spending. As for American companies, their profits are doing well. They do not face any financial constraints that would hamper their investments."

The article is here: https://blogs.letemps.ch/cedric-tille/2017/12/03/politique-fiscale-de-trump-open-bar-sur-le-titanic/

Oddly enough, a few months before the 1929 stock market crash, the same fiscal policies were applied by Andrew Melon, and at that time we could see the same complacency toward the stock market.
(https://fthmb.tqn.com/puVXeJtbP_A1q4B_TSJ171K9q0c=/1024x717/filters:no_upscale():fill(transparent,1)/GettyImages-51311238-585d7e163df78ce2c31d3706.jpg)





Mr Baboon
(https://guardian.ng/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Baboon.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 10, 2017, 11:34 AM
Tonight, I’m going to hold an exceptional conference about Bitcoin.


Gold will replace the "bitcoin" and it's not the "bitcoin" that will replace gold.

(https://i.ibb.co/9Z3RwyP/Napoleon20-F.jpg)

There is no point in talking for hours about the brilliant "blockchain" technique to justify the value of "bitcoin". This technique is the tree that hides the forest. A "bitcoin" is not based on anything and is worthless if it is not the price at which fools want to buy it in a mega-system Ponzi which is nothing but a repetition in the XXI century of the famous speculative crisis of tulip bulbs in Holland in the 17th century. Just as it is impossible to prevent people, if they wish, from throwing themselves from the top of the Eiffel Tower, it is not possible to prevent people from ruining themselves! The only real value of "bitcoin" is the market value of the blockchain technology patent.

This technology, which has freed itself from state intervention, has as guarantor only an algorithm and relies on the only value given by the mass of buyers of "bitcoin". His creator is unknown and he threw the key at the bottom of the well after the design of the "blockchain". The ones who are able to create "bitcoins" are only those who have a computing capacity with computer farms, with the technical capacity to issue them.

Some technocrats evoke Metcalfe's law that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its users. What they forget is that a hundred times zero, that's still zero! But they are confusing the value of the network of "bitcoin" users with the value of "bitcoin". A second technocratic tree is thus added to the technological tree to hide the forest of nothingness and absolute emptiness of the "bitcoin".
The value of the "bitcoin" is in fact based on the confidence that imbeciles, speculators and mafia give it. The "bitcoin" is not backed by any central authority and it is likely that states will one day wring its neck. Morocco, after China and Vietnam, is the last state that has just banned "bitcoin".
The "bitcoin", created on January 3, 2009, had an ultra volatile price below $ 20 until its real flight in 2013, with a bubble explosion each year. The "bitcoin" that has just reached $ 14,000 is rising to the sky. Some rejoice when it is actually the harbinger of a crash worse than 1929 and the economic, political, civilizational apocalypse that threatens us.
Irresponsible monetary policies, the hyper-indebtedness of governments, companies and individuals in most countries of the world (China, Japan, emerging countries included), unlike 1929, where the problems were confined mainly to Europe and United States, the real figures of unemployment, hidden in France or the United States of 20%, the catastrophic ratios of the Italian banks, the American public and commercial deficit, the dollar attacked by China as the main currency of the oil contracts: It smells more like apocalypse than a simple crash ahead. In case of bankruptcy of the states and a real unemployment rate of 40%, the suburbs of lawlessness could behave in France as in Saint Martin, after the hurricane.
In 1913 the total debt of the United States amounted to 39 billion dollars. Today it is $ 70 trillion, 1800 times more. Interest rates are now 1.5% in the United States; tomorrow they will inevitably reach 15-20%. And while the Dow Jones fell by 90% between 1929 and 1932, the Nasdaq declined by 80% between 2000 and 2002. The Dow Jones which was at 1000 in 1982 is now around 23,400.

It is likely that in the next crash an unlimited monetary impression will occur and that the world will look like Germany in 1923, with dollar and euro currencies worth zero. The only real natural "bitcoin" since Nebuchadnezzar, gold, will then be worth $ 15,000 or $ 80,000, much more than the current "bitcoin" of men. Gold will replace the "bitcoin" and the "bitcoin" will not replace gold.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 11, 2017, 06:35 PM
Tonight, I'm going to give you a video in which a specialist is warning against the current stock market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N9I8wesVB8


Here are a few charts to understand that there is currently a bubble.


(http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/US-EPS-SP500-2017-07.png)

Given that there has been zero earnings growth over the past three years, even under the most optimistic “adjusted earnings” scenario, and only about 2% per year on average over the past five years, the S&P 500 companies are not high-growth companies. On average, they’re stagnating companies with stagnating earnings. And the price-earnings ratio for stagnating companies should be low. In 2012 it was around 15.5. As of July 7, it is nearly 26, and now it's roughly 28...
(http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/US-SP500-pe-ratios-2012-2017-07-07.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 30, 2017, 12:46 PM
Today, I’m going to give you my forecasts for 2018.


(https://rmarks6.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/tv-2018.jpg?w=616)


I’m predicting a s&p 500 at 1600 points and a bitcoin between...0 and 2000$ by the end of 2018. It’s pretty ambitious and actually, knowing that the s&p 500 is currentlystanding at 2673 points and that the Bitcoin is worth 12330$, but I think that the stock and bitcoin bubbles are going to burst.


As far as the stock markets are concerned, the reason is simple: Many markets are overvalued today, and more particularly the US stock markets. You can obtain more clues in the previous messages.
As for Bitcoin,Well, today it is losing 15% at 12330$...and It’s probably not over. It reached 18000$, and after a 40% collapse, we have seen a dead cat bounce up to 15000$. But the decline would likely continue.
I issued a warning a few days ago, and I hope you listened to me.


Here is an interesting analysis, at least I agree with the specialist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6pA2ZkMvL8


The Winklevoss twins talk about Bitcoin futures in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSx77HKF-K4
Those ones are the first Billionaires in bitcoin, but I’m pretty sure we are going to see the homeless in bitcoin soon enough.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 10, 2018, 05:54 PM
Here is an interesting article, written by an independent economist, Andy Xie, based in Shanghai.

The global asset bubble will burst – the only question is when, and how bad it will be

Even though the US stock market is more expensive than in 1929 or 2000, and China’s property valuation higher than Japan’s a quarter of a century ago, fear-driven sell-offs have been rare and brief, leading to the belief that high asset prices are the new normal. Massive amounts of financial and business activities, especially in tech, are predicated on high asset prices going higher.

The unusual longevity and resilience of high asset prices are largely because government actions, not herd behaviour in the market, are force-feeding the bubble. Government actions will lose their grip only when growth expectations crash or inflation flares up. Neither is a major risk for 2018. Hence, 2018 won’t kill the speculators of the world.

But 2018 will teach them a lesson or two. High-risk assets such as internet stocks and high-end properties will struggle like never before in the past decade. US interest rates will rise above inflation for the first time in a decade. And China is tightening, especially in the property sector, out of fear of a life-threatening financial crisis. The interaction between the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and China’s credit targeting has been the liquidity super machine. China accounts for about half of global credit growth. Credit creation in commodity economies has been dependent on China. The property sector roughly accounts for half of China’s credit growth. Yet, China’s monetary expansion may slow to half the average of the past decade.

The asset bubble demands that the excess liquidity-money supply rises faster than GDP to sustain it. This year may see global money supply line up with GDP. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates from the current 1-1.25 per cent and take the level to 2.5 per cent in 2018. This is still low compared with the 4.5-5 per cent nominal GDP growth rate. But the US stock market is more expensive than in 1929 or 2000. When the interest rate surpasses inflation, it will become wobbly.

(https://d1yhils6iwh5l5.cloudfront.net/charts/resized/40190/original/GDP_cartoon_05.29.2015_large.png)

On the other hand, numerous so-called “unicorns” are looking to cash out of the market before it crashes. When the liquidity tide is not rising, every initial public offering dilutes the bubble. When enough speculators see this, the market may experience violent turbulence.

Policymakers are caught between a rock and a hard place. The structural problems that led to the 2008 crisis are still here. The global economy grows ever more dependent on asset bubbles. If the global asset bubble bursts, the economy will slide into recession. Hence, when a market wobbles, as it probably will in 2018, policymakers will come out to soothe market sentiment and may even temporarily reverse the tightening.

Today’s world is full of speculators. The incredible monetary expansion of the past three decades has richly rewarded speculators. Every crash along the way was bailed out quickly by governments. The world has not experienced a genuine cleansing. Hence, three generations of speculators are stacked on top of each other. It doesn’t take much to get them going. Furthermore, today’s speculators are mostly gainfully employed as money managers and bet with other people’s money. Their incentive is overwhelmingly for staying in the game. This is why the dance between policymakers and speculators has been so effective and smooth in propping up defective economies.

While 2018 may not be the end, it will happen some day. A likely trigger is inflation. Central bankers have found the excuse to support asset inflation by citing the lack of inflation in the real economy. This is due to China joining the World Trade Organisation. Some 800 million Chinese workers joined and become gravity for the global labour market. Even when China reached full employment, it started asset bubbles to tax the household sector and turned the revenue into subsidising investment and production. China has since been trapped in the equilibrium of goods deflation and asset inflation. While China does this, global inflation is unlikely to flare up.

Global inflation will finally arrive when China stops funding overinvestment and revalues its currency to empower consumers. When we see China appreciate its currency by 20-30 per cent quickly, the global asset bubble will pop.

If China keeps doing what it is doing, capital efficiency will keep falling at home and all over the world. Global growth will slow further from the anaemic levels since 2008. When the fear of stagnation takes hold, enough speculators may want to cash out while they can still fill their wallets, and the bubble will pop.

(https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/20160316_SWE.jpg)

Lastly, a US dollar collapse is possible. If so, it will take everything down with it. The global imbalance has been patched up with excess dollar printing. The people who are willing to hold dollars are in East Asia and the Middle East, because the US is viewed as a superpower and the dollar is the global reserve currency. When that faith falters, for example when US domestic politics becomes total chaos, the dumping of over US$10 trillion could ensue.

The current world is a kind of make-believe. People gain their faith in the fantasy from the last trend. When they wake up, it will be ugly.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 16, 2018, 04:32 PM
Tonight, I'm going to talk about Bitcoin.

Is the bubble bursting tonight?
We have a typical pattern of Shoulder head shoulder, and it may indicate that the bubble is going to burst completely (it means a return to 2000$).
Actually, I think Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will crumble since central banks are going to tighten their policies.

(https://image.ibb.co/bwDTrm/bitc.png)


As for the s&p 500, I think it could go back to 1300 points.
Look at Amazon for example: a valuation of 600 Billion $. For the first time in 2016, the firm made profits, but with this valuation, it has a Price Earning Ratio of 250!
It also represents a whopping amount of 1 300 000$ per employee! (but many are only earning minimal wage). So if you work at Amazon, that's good, you can say: for Wall Street, I'm worth 1 300 000$. I feel that aa1234779 must be already sending an application. But wait. They are worth 1 300 000$ only for the shareholders. And it probably just means there is a bubble.
Amazon is a typical example of overvalued stock, but in Wall Street the whole market is actually very expensive. If humbert or Ahmad currently have American stocks, well, maybe it's time you recognized gains.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Sobhana123 on January 24, 2018, 12:13 AM
hii. I can't understand this topic please tell meany one this topic thank you.
ISO 22000 Certification in Oman (http://www.certvalue.com/iso-22000-certification-Oman/)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 30, 2018, 02:01 PM
Tonight, I’m issuing a red alert on the stock markets.

Here is an article of le Monde, in French, published yesterday, which says “All the indicators for the stock markets are flashing red”
http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2018/01/29/beaucoup-de-clignotants-sont-deja-a-l-orange-voire-au-rouge-sur-les-bourses_5248637_3232.html

A plausible scenario: (https://image.ibb.co/eiTx8m/dowjones.png)


And here is an interesting documentary about oil shale, the illusion of energy independence for the US.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkbc0-bXFBs
Art Berman, 40-year veteran in the petroleum production industry and respected geological consultant, returns to the podcast this week to talk about oil. After the price of oil fell from its previous $100+/bbl highs to under $30/bbl in 2015, many declared dead the concerns raised by peak oil theorists. Headlines selling the "shale miracle" have sought to convince us that the US will one day eclipse Saudi Arabia in oil production. In short: cheap, plentiful oil is here to stay.
How likely is this? Not at all, warns Berman. World demand for oil shows no signs of abating while the outlook for future production looks increasingly scant. And the competition among nations for this "master resource" will be much more intense in future decades than we've been used to.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 04, 2018, 02:44 PM
Well, let's talk about oil.
On Friday, Exxon, Chevron shares plunged after weak results spook Wall Street.

Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp posted rare quarterly earnings misses on Friday as cost cuts and rising oil prices failed to offset weakness in international refining operations, sending shares of both companies plunging.

The results surprised Wall Street, where analysts had been steadily raising expectations due to stronger crude prices and a rebounding global economy, according to Thomson Reuters data.

But excluding U.S. tax benefits, results at both companies fell short of expectations, casting a cloud over the U.S. oil industry just days after the nation’s output surpassed a milestone 10 million barrels per day.


Here is a conference about peak oil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVoDYha8ZRM&t=154s

And here is why humbert and aa1234779 had better sell their stocks, we could be facing a crash if interest rates keep rising: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-43-BrQd8M
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: aa1234779 on February 06, 2018, 05:50 AM
Sudan devalued its currency for the second time this year, the US Dollar is 40+ Sudanse pounds from just 6.9 before the first devaluation, and 2 pounds in 2007.

http://aa.com.tr/en/africa/for-2nd-time-this-year-sudan-devalues-local-currency/1055144

It seems that neither siding with Ethiopia, Qatar, and Turkey nor Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and UAE is helping any.

Not even the recent lifting of US sanctions against Sudan.

For many men and women of the country, paying those bills and putting food on the table will cause lots of stress on them, and could lead to unwanted consequences by Omar Al-Basheer's government, which has displayed ruthlessness with non-violent demands.

Anyone with knowledge of the Sudanese terrain, whether south or north, is surprised that the surplus of water in the two Niles, the fertile grounds that could be a paradise on earth haven't been taken advantage of to feed the local or regional & international markets..

There is this kind of self-pity saying that Arab intellectuals say a lot for decades, Egypt and Sudan could have been the Arab world's food basket.

Now with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which is very likely to affect the amount of water streaming north, that dream is harder and harder to be accomplished.

There has been a stand-off between Sudan/Ethiopia vs Egypt/Eritrea in the past few weeks and things could escalate God forbid.

I remember I read in the Bible that there will be wars and rumors of wars. Let's hope that there won't be another war in the Arab region as around 6 countries are already going at it.

As a believer, I know for sure this is God's will, but what are the direct reasons that it has to be us Arabs and Muslims and Africans that have to deal with this crap this time around?

Why us?
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 06, 2018, 12:19 PM
Sudan devalued its currency for the second time this year, the US Dollar is 40+ Sudanse pounds from just 6.9 before the first devaluation, and 2 pounds in 2007.

There is this kind of self-pity saying that Arab intellectuals say a lot for decades, Egypt and Sudan could have been the Arab world's food basket.

I remember I read in the Bible that there will be wars and rumors of wars. Let's hope that there won't be another war in the Arab region as around 6 countries are already going at it.

As a believer, I know for sure this is God's will, but what are the direct reasons that it has to be us Arabs and Muslims and Africans that have to deal with this crap this time around?

Why us?

Egypt devalued its currency recently too. As for Sudan, well, when I read your message I have the impression it's the garden of Eden. The situation in Southern Sudan is not very good. I hope our friend Ahmad, from Egypt, has not gone there. Since 2015 he has not given signs of life. And when you say they could be the Arab world's food basket, well, once again, it could be true if these countries were less populated. Egypt is importing 80% of its food, with its 90 million inhabitants, thanks to oil. Did god curse the Arab world? That's a good question indeed. In some places, you'll notice there are conflicts where there are commodities such as oil or rare metals. Oil and gas are a bonanza for countries such as Qatar, UAE or Saudi Arabia, but they also prevent structural changes.


By next Tuesday, note there will be another release of windows 10 x64, this time with an automatic and silent activation. There will be a repack of Dishonored DotO too, faster and smaller than fitgirl's repack. The first tests are successful, but I need time to reecode bk2 files since nobody on the forum is helping.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 11, 2018, 02:56 PM
Here is an interesting video to understand what is going on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lb1g0_ANOhM


Well, now I'm going to give you my forecasts for next week for the financial markets. I think there will be a small rebound, in fact most of it already happened during last session since the Dow Jones ended 4% above the low. Maybe there is still 1% to grab for the stock markets...before another 10% fall. I'm expecting the s&p 500 to go back to its 200-day moving average. For the Dow Jones it's standing at 22000 points, practically 10% below the current level. Then we can perhaps expect a short sideways consolidation before a new fall towards 18000-19000. If the markets are declining by 20% (my predictions), the PER of the s&p 500 would be standing at 20 for 2017. Actually it would still be expensive, and above the historical average.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 18, 2018, 10:27 AM
Tonight, I'm going to talk about my forecasts concerning the stock markets.
After the rebound, I think we are headed for a new crash on the stock market.

(https://preview.ibb.co/jCcbBS/dow.png)
A similar view comes from technical analyst Mark Arbeter, who thinks there is a significant likelihood to go back to recent lows.

Besides, fundamentally speaking, many managers think the market is way overvalued. MacroMavens President Stephanie Pomboy discusses in the video below her concerns over current economic conditions and the Fed’s impact on the stock market and thinks Stock market will sell off by 30%!
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/stock-market-sell-off-30-021934797.html
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on February 24, 2018, 09:17 AM
Well, as stated in the previous message, after equity market bounced back by 62%, I'm expecting a new dramatic fall of the s&p 500.
In fact, early January, a specialist correctly predicted the correction that happened early February by analyzing the Bitcoin chart, and both the s&p 500 and the bitcoin charts had the same pattern, one month and a half apart. Of this analysis proves true, we are probably in front of an impending significant correction.
For sure this is going to be fun.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on March 13, 2018, 05:50 PM
Tonight, I'm issuing a red alert on the stock market.
The similarities between 1987 and 2018 are striking (aa1234779 and Maher probably noticed that) - an article here: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=52296
My target is 2100 on the s&p 500.

And a few videos...
A manager who thinks the stock and real estate bubbles are going to explode (in Fr):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzknfi5ylnQ

The similarities between 87 and 2018: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vetPn2EvTTQ



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24xRFPGMImY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dChjADy341I


Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: aa1234779 on March 13, 2018, 09:46 PM
I've turned a blind eye ti stock markets long ago.
It doesn't require a rocket scientist to notice it's just a huge bubble waiting to burst. Same goes for the petro-dollar. The day it is valued at its true worth will be a sad day for planet earth.
I'm noticing similarities between 2018 & 1979 more and more everyday.
All there is to do is hope for the best.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on March 15, 2018, 02:43 PM
A video of Peter Schiff about the American economy...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOcAqMm76nw
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on April 02, 2018, 10:49 PM
The older I get the more convinced I am that the stock market is a huge scam. Only those at the very top of the totem pole make real money. Others invest and either lose everything or make a small profit. I would never invest in the stock market no matter how much rich I get.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on April 03, 2018, 01:30 PM
Here is an interesting video about the US stock markets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Z2RXHLqKNo
It's completely my scenario. Even though I don't have such a low target at 1900 for the s&p 500.
We can have small rebounds, like today, but the market is expensive (even without the current monetary tightening of the Fed it would be the case), the trend has become bearish, and I think the s&p 500 is headed for 2050-2100. At this level it wouldn't even be a special opportunity in my opinion.
With interest rates at the current level, 1900 points would be a buying opportunity though.
If you have a different opinion, feel free to share it.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Vasudev on May 01, 2018, 12:36 AM
The older I get the more convinced I am that the stock market is a huge scam. Only those at the very top of the totem pole make real money. Others invest and either lose everything or make a small profit. I would never invest in the stock market no matter how much rich I get.
Yep. That's the case in every nook and corner of business, more money w/o caring what happens to middle class and poor class people.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 02, 2018, 03:53 PM
In this topic, a few months ago I told you not to invest in snap. It seems I'm vindicated. The stock price dropped by 20% today, and hit an all time low.

A few weeks ago I was looking at a stock and I was thinking: I don't know what they are doing, it's probably experimental, but the stock is a bit expensive.
It declined by 80% in two days. The firm is amoeba.

(https://image.ibb.co/m5uVeS/amoeba.png)


The stock collapsed after the rejection of its biological biocide.

On friday, the resumption of trading for the Amoeba stock turned out to be catastrophic, while it declined by 70% at 5.5 euros this Friday on the Paris Stock Exchange, having already lost nearly 20%on thurday before being suspended. In a statement, the group announced that its application for authorization of the biocidal active substance Willaertia magna C2c Maky for use in product type 11 (TP 11- Liquid protection products used in cooling systems and manufacture) has not been approved by the Biocidal Products Committee.

"This opinion will have to be confirmed by the European Commission through an implementing regulation according to the regulatory procedure.The regulations are expected in the fourth quarter of 2018," the group said in its statement.

Before the collapse, it was worth 130 million euros, for 60 000 euros in revenue in 2016. I don't think the US market is as overvalued as amoeba, and yet, I might be wrong but I think the next months are going to be funny. If interest rates keep climbing, the s&p 500 can go to 2000. To put that in perspective, a mere firm like facebook is worth more than the whole Indian market. Maybe the whole indian market is not expensive. Maybe facebook is earning a lot of money -at the expense of its members who are targeted by ads. But maybe facebook and other American techno stocks are a bit expensive too.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 10, 2018, 01:12 PM
Tonight I'm going to talk about the s&p 500, which is currently in a kind of "bubble" (I'm just pasting the article of the specialist Proinsias O'Mahony, published yesterday in the Irish Times).

Bubble trouble: how should investors respond?
High prices are sustained as speculators believe they can sell on to ‘greater fool’

(https://www.irishtimes.com/polopoly_fs/1.3482699.1525339616!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/box_620_330/image.jpg)

 Should investors be worried about bubbles? If so, how should they respond? Worrying about excessively high prices might seem misplaced at the moment, given the recent stock market correction. However, high-profile money manager Rob Arnott says some assets – cryptocurrencies, technology stocks, perhaps even the broader US stock market – remain in bubble territory.

Arnott, who helps manage $205 billion at Research Affiliates, argues in a new paper that investors need a plan on how to deal with these and other bubbles. Should you bet against them? Ignore them? Invest in their antithesis?

Arnott defines a bubble as an asset that offers little chance of any positive return relative to bonds or cash, “using any reasonable projection of expected cash flows”. Instead, high prices are sustained because speculators believe they can sell on to a “greater fool”. For stocks, markets constantly create “single-asset micro-bubbles” like electric car maker Tesla, occasional examples of “extreme mispricing” which require perfect outcomes to justify their lofty valuation multiples. Arnott says Tesla’s market valuation of almost $50 billion can only be justified if most cars are powered by electricity in 10 years; if most of those cars are made by Tesla; if Tesla can make sufficient margin on those cars while maintaining quality control; and if it can raise the necessary capital to cover a $3 billion annual cash drain. Together, this makes for an “unduly optimistic array of assumptions”.

Many other high-profile investors share this scepticism towards Tesla, one of the most shorted stocks on the US market. Those who have bet against the stock include hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who says Tesla is “worthless” and a “cult stock”, as well as fellow hedge fund manager David Einhorn.

Tesla, Amazon and Netflix are part of the latter’s “bubble basket”, with Einhorn arguing for some time that the appetite for such stocks is “reminiscent of the March 2000 dotcom bubble”. More controversial, perhaps, is Arnott’s claim that the broader US market, led by the largest technology stocks, is in bubble territory. Sector and broad market bubbles are “much rarer” that “micro-bubbles” like Tesla, but the “relentless” and “dramatic” US market gains since 2009 mean valuations “now exceed all historical valuation levels”, barring the late 1990s dotcom craze. Semantics aside, Arnott’s analysis suggests investors should be wary of popular stocks.

Looking at the 10 largest technology stocks in 2000, he notes that “not a single one beat the market” over the next 18 years. At the end of January 2018, the seven largest stocks in the world – Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, and Tencent – were all technology stocks, with Arnott cautioning that no single sector has ever so dominated the global market landscape.

Historical analysis shows that, on average, just two stocks are likely to remain in the top 10 in a decade’s time. If history repeats itself, nine of the current top 10 will underperform over the next decade.

Technology valuations are “not as extreme” as 1999-2000, says Arnott, but the sector is nevertheless in another bubble.
Bet against bubbles?
Arnott admits that “reasonable people may reach the opposite conclusion”. Whatever one’s opinion, all investors should focus on how they might respond to a bubble. You can make a lot of money by betting against bubbles; those who bet against technology stocks in 2000 and bank stocks in 2008 profited handsomely.

He points to the Zimbabwean stock market, which fell 99 per cent in US dollar terms over a three-month period in 2008. Even if you knew in advance that the market was going to collapse, vicious market swings mean you would have lost 50 times your money. An extreme case, no doubt, but other examples abound. In January 2017, tech stocks like Amazon and Netflix “really looked stretched”, sporting sky-high valuation multiples, but they continued to outperform over the following year. Instead of betting against bubbles, Arnott suggests investors simply reduce or eliminate their exposure to bubble assets. Refusing to do so in the hope that you’ll get out in time “resembles picking up nickels in front of a steamroller”, as Sir Isaac Newton discovered during the South Sea bubble in the 18th century.

Newton quickly doubled his money in the South Sea Company but the stock continued to soar after he sold it. Newton gave into temptation and bought back in shortly before it peaked, losing almost his entire life’s savings and prompting him to famously lament that he could “calculate the movement of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men”.
“Anti-bubbles”
Alternatively, investors can seek out “anti-bubbles” – sectors priced at levels “that cannot plausibly deliver” anything other than big returns. He points to bank stocks and junk bonds in early 2009, noting that every failure of a company meant that survivors in that sector had less competition and higher margins. Similarly, the high yields and low valuations sported by value stocks in emerging markets in early 2016 represented an “obvious anti-bubble” in a world of zero-yield bonds and cash.

Anti-bubbles are like market bubbles in that you cannot tell when the cycle will turn. Accordingly, investors require patience and prudence and should average into positions over time, says Arnott. Finally, investors can diversify into assets that are not in bubble territory. Although the S&P 500 is trading at an “extravagant premium” to historic valuations, many developed and emerging markets are cheaper than usual. Bulls try to find many ways to justify high US valuations, but the same arguments apply to European and emerging markets. If low yields in the US justify high valuations, asks Arnott, then why do zero yields in Europe lead to modest valuation multiples? Rotating out of bubbly assets and into cheaper alternatives will help insulate investors “against the next eventual-but-inevitable market downturn”, says Arnott. “Other markets offer better places to take on market risk. Seek them out”.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 13, 2018, 07:54 AM
Today, I’m going to hold a conference about the American stock markets.


I gathered a few elements taken in recent articles that confirm my opinion: we are probably in front of a big fall of the s&p 500.


First and foremost, let’s talk about the predictions of strategist Rosenberg, who says that the S&P 500 should be 1,000-plus points lower than it is today.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2018/04/03/Photos/ZH/MW-GG661_cliff__20180403073217_ZH.jpg?uuid=a9f76366-3732-11e8-9e58-ac162d7bc1f7)

Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg bases his prediction on sluggish U.S. economic growth and overvalued equities.

A reversion to the mean in U.S. stock prices could mean the market will fall by at least 20%, according to David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff and Associates, who gave his prediction at the Strategic Investment Conference 2018 in San Diego.
Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Gluskin Sheff, said this is one of the strangest securities-market rallies of all time. That’s because all asset classes have gone up, even ones that are inversely correlated.

Smart money pulls back

The beginning of this year started off great for investors. The S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.17% hit record highs at around 2,750 points, and stocks had their best January since 1987.
As if that was not enough, Rosenberg pointed out, many Wall Street strategists raised their target to 3,000. The media extrapolating record returns only added to the rise in investors’ unreasonable expectations.
However, increasingly more hedge fund managers and billionaire investors who timed the previous crashes are backing out.
One of them is Sam Zell, a billionaire real estate investor, whom Rosenberg says is a “hero” of his. Zell predicted the 2008 financial crisis, eight months early. But, essentially, he was right. Today, his view is that valuations are at record highs.
Then we have Howard Marks, a billionaire American investor who is the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. He seconds Zell’s view that valuations are unreasonably high and says the easy money has been made.
“And I don’t always try to seek out corroborating evidence. But there are some serious people out there saying some very serious things about the longevity of the cycle,” said Rosenberg.

Big correction coming

Later at the Strategic Investment Conference, Rosenberg shifted from quoting high-profile investors to showing actual data, which paints the same ominous picture.
For starters, Rosenberg pointed out that only 9% of the time in history have U.S. stocks been so expensive.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2018/05/11/Photos/NS/MW-GJ086_rose1_20180511142801_NS.png?uuid=0995b370-5549-11e8-9c04-ac162d7bc1f7)

Then he showed a table with gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures in the last nine bull rallies. This table reveals a dire trend where each subsequent bull rally in the last 70 years generated less GDP growth. Essentially, that means we are paying more for less growth.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2018/05/11/Photos/NS/MW-GJ087_rose2_20180511142802_NS.png?uuid=09ee3766-5549-11e8-bf93-ac162d7bc1f7)

According to Rosenberg’s calculations, the S&P 500 should be at least 1,000 points lower than it is today based on economic growth. In spite of this, equity valuations sit at record highs.

Another historically accurate indicator that predicts the end of bull cycles is household net worth’s share of personal disposable income.
As you can see in the chart below, the last two peaks in this ratio almost perfectly coincided with the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis.
(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2018/05/11/Photos/NS/MW-GJ088_rose3_20180511142802_NS.png?uuid=0a46719c-5549-11e8-9b5c-ac162d7bc1f7)

Now the ratio is at the highest level since 1975, which is another sign that reversion is near.
What the Fed thinks
As another strong indicator that recession is around the corner, Rosenberg quoted the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. He pointed out that, having access to tons of research, they themselves admit that equity valuations are so stretched that there will be no returns in the next decade:
“Current valuation ratios for households and businesses are high relative to historical benchmarks … we find that the current price-to-earnings ratio predicts approximately zero growth in real equity prices over the next 10 years.”
Basically, the Fed is giving investors an explicit warning that the market will “mean revert.”
But when we revert, we don’t stop at the mean, warned Rosenberg. He gave an example of how mean reversion in the household net worth/GDP ratio would create a snowball effect.
According to his calculations, if the household net worth/GDP ratio reverted to the mean, savings rates would go from 2% to 6%. As a result, GDP would go down 3%, which would have nasty consequences for the economy and, in turn, stocks.

Monetary regime change

Stretched valuations are not the only problem for the stock market. Rosenberg thinks that new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell marks the end of low interest rates, which will also add pressure to equities.
Even the biggest Fed doves admit that low rates created a heightened risk of asset bubbles and unstable asset inflation. And so, Rosenberg thinks, Powell will be more hawkish than people think.
“He’s [Jerome Powell] talked about risk-taking in the past, he’s talked about frothy financial conditions. He was adamantly against the prolonged period of zero percent interest rates. He was profoundly opposed to the repeated rounds of QE [quantitative easing], and now he’s in charge. So, for people to think he’s only going to go three times this year [raise official interest rates three times], I think he’ll go four. He may go more, depending on the circumstances.”

Rosenberg also thinks Powell won’t cut interest rates, even if we get a 20% sell-off. That’s how determined Powell is to normalize interest rates, according to Rosenberg.
In other words, we are in the middle of the Fed tightening cycle. As history shows, a tightening cycle is almost always followed by a recession.

What’s more, other analysts think the s&p 500 is grossly overvalued.

“The U.S. equity market remains richly valued, particularly relative to European markets,” said Marcus Morris-Eyton, a London-based fund manager at Allianz Global Investors, whose team manages 17.5 billion euros ($21.5 billion). “We continue to see more valuation upside in Europe, where valuations are less stretched and the earnings recovery is less advanced.”
Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, points out that the difference between the price-to-estimated book value of the S&P 500 and the Stoxx Europe 600 remains near a record high. Pictet estimates that such a premium implies U.S. earnings growth to be 6 percentage points higher than in the euro area, which is “totally unrealistic.”

In these conditions, I have targets for the s&p 500 between 2000 and 2200 points (if the s&p 500 was to fall, like during the 1987 crash, it could even go to 1800 points, before a rebound towards 2200).

(https://image.ibb.co/dk7UOy/sp500.png)


Currently there are 2 dangers for stocks: the oil price, which keeps climbing. That’s good for oil companies of course, but it could trigger a recession in the US, since it is heavily dependent on oil.

But the main danger comes from the $: that’s what Macquarie Research states:
There is a distinct possibility of a much stronger USD…
Just when the consensus agreed that the US$ has entered LT bear channel, DXY not surprisingly started to appreciate and, as it passes 92, the question is whether we are likely to witness an intense appreciation. This is the key danger facing investors over the next twelve months.
For many years we have been deflationists at heart and indeed we remain so. Our core beliefs are centred on disinflationary pressures that are likely to get stronger over time. These are driven by a combustible mix of technology (and associated dissolution of labour & product markets) and the impact of three decades of over financialization (and associated over capacity & inability to resurrect conventional pricing signals). In simple terms, investors reside in a world of no wages (or eroding pricing power of labour & products) and the need to keep ‘zombies’ alive to avoid contraction of demand. These forces are highly deflationary and public sectors would struggle to offset them.
In this environment, we should theoretically see that the current anomaly of US$ and gold appreciating at the same time turn into a consistent trend while investors also search for more extreme value alternatives, ranging from fine wines, paintings to cryptos. This investor behaviour might become ever more extreme as the public and electorates demand protection and continuity from CBs & fiscal authorities and politics deliver. It would be positive for US$.
… as the Fed destroys liquidity & extreme positioning unwinds
We believe that investors are already starting to witness weaker supply of US$ (~1%-3% clip, half the rate six months ago, caused by contracting monetary base as the Fed reduces its balance sheet) and seeming inability of the US to significantly widen its CA deficits (despite public sector dissaving).
(https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/global%20debt%20supply.jpg?itok=nNpEjSco)
This shortage is amplified by historically high real spreads.
(https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/real%20spreads.jpg?itok=ZtkICTdK)
Hence, we are seeing some unwinding of extreme negative positioning against US$. This might get out of control and it is the intensity rather than simply direction that is critical.
There is another factor that always provides a positive undertone for US$: its role as the global store of value and medium of exchange. A reserve currency must satisfy a number of conditions, which currently only the US$ does. It must have large, liquid and free treasury and FX markets. Neither €, Rmb nor ¥ have these. Reserve currency supplier must also run significant CA deficits to lubricate finance; neither Eurozone, Japan nor China run deficits. Hence, there is always a bid for US$, and only strong reflation or QE could weaken it.
Intense appreciation or depreciation of US$ are deflationary
We maintain that all rapid US$ moves are deflationary. Appreciation works through liquidity and commodity channels to erode growth and make it harder to re-finance US$ foreign debt. However, steep US$ depreciation is equally deflationary as it kills real demand. Hence, neither moves are desirable. Rising US$ is already causing tremors (Argentina, Tukey & Indo); however at this stage these are still moderate.


Since Interest rates keep rising in the US, I have a target for the currency pair €/$ at 1.10, and maybe 1.05. If you are in the Eurozone, I advise you to buy dollars and hold them. It’s another element which is strongly negative for US stocks, because if the $ climbs, it means they should be cheaper. Usually, we find that correlation with Gold: when the $ climbs, gold tumbles.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 13, 2018, 02:02 PM
I found another interesting article...

Taking The Pulse Of A Weakening Economy
by Charles Hugh Smith

Corporate buybacks provide the key analogy for the economy as a whole.

Central banks have been running a grand experiment for 9 years, and now we're about to find out if it succeeds or fails. For 9 unprecedented years, central banks have pushed the pedal of monetary stimulus to the metal: near-zero interest rates, monumental purchases of bonds, mortgage-backed securities, stocks and corporate bonds, injecting trillions of dollars, yuan, yen and euros into the global financial system, all in the name of promoting a "synchronized global recovery" that in many nations remains the weakest post-World War II recovery on record.

The two goals of this unprecedented stimulus were 1) bringing consumption forward and 2) generating a "wealth effect" as the owners of assets rising in value would translate their perception of feeling wealthier into more borrowing and consumption that would then feed a self-sustaining virtuous cycle of expansion.

The Federal Reserve has finally begun reducing its stimulus programs of near-zero interest rates and bond purchases, the idea being that the "recovery" is now robust enough to continue without the extraordinary monetary stimulus of the past 9 years since the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-09.

Will the "synchronized global recovery" continue as interest rates rise and central bank assets purchases decline? Policy makers and economists evince confidence as they collectively hold their breath--is the recovery now self-sustaining?

2018 is the first test year. Global assets--stocks, bonds and real estate--remain at levels that are grossly overvalued by traditional measures, and most economies are still expanding modestly. But since the other major central banks have only recently begun to "taper" / reduce their securities purchases, the real test has yet to begin.

The pulses of asset valuations and productive expansion are weakening. Asset valuations are either no longer expanding or are actively falling; markets everywhere feel heavy, as if all they need is one good shove to slip into major declines.

The vaunted "wealth effect" was extremely asymmetric: only those in the top 5% who owned enough assets to experience a meaningful increase in wealth--those who bought assets years before the current bubble expanded, and the relative few households who own roughly 70% of all financial assets--and the few workers and entrepreneurs who benefited from an increasingly "winner take most" expansion.

As a result, the enormous increases in assets had little real effect on the bottom 80% who own few assets, and only modest effects on the "middle class" between the bottom 80% and the top 5%.

Meanwhile, bringing consumption forward has drained the pool of future consumption and creditworthy borrowers. Future consumption now rests on the shaky foundation of marginally qualified buyers and the relatively few young people forming new households who also have high incomes and good credit.

The reality nobody dares acknowledge is that a "recovery" based not on improving productivity and innovation but on cheap credit and an artificially stimulated "wealth effect" was inherently weak, for the stimulus effectively hollowed out the productive economy in favor of the financialized, speculative economy and created perverse incentives to over-borrow and over-spend, stripping future demand to create the illusion of growth in a stagnating economy of rising wealth and power inequality.

A funny thing happens when you borrow from the future to spend more today--the future arrives, and we find the pool has been drained to serve the absurd policy goal of "no recession now, or ever again.

Corporate buybacks provide the key analogy for the economy as a whole: as sales, productivity and profits all stagnate, corporations borrow against future earnings to buy shares back from investors to push share prices higher, creating an illusion of "wealth." But it's all illusion; once the billions in buybacks cease, gravity takes hold and the phantom "wealth" dissipates.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is simply the latest corporation to announce slowing sales growth and to compensate for this stagnation with a massive $100 billion buyback to prop up shares at their current valuation.

Perhaps these realities are seeping into the margins of the complacent herd. It certainly feels like the "smart money" is selling (distributing) to the complacent herd, which is one lightning strike and thunder clap away from a panicked rush to sell and book 9 years of gains before the synchronized global asset bubbles all pop.

Markets have ignored the tapering of central bank support (asset purchases), but the question remains: is this complacency temporary?

(https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic9640694119b5715be3dd85342c4e5e1f.jpg)

Productivity is the only sustainable source of widespread prosperity, and it's stagnating:

(https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic9b22a7bb60875ec2b44904f4fa87fd05.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 21, 2018, 07:57 PM
The US stock market remains expensive. And we have seen that in this market, some stocks are particularly expensive. That's the case for Tesla, snap, and also Netflix (on a lesser extent, we could add Caterpillar, Boeing, Nvidia, Amazon...).
Here is an article that explains why Netflix is expensive: https://www.recode.net/2018/4/24/17258828/netflix-stock-cheap-debt-nflx-pe-ratio-enterprise-value
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 23, 2018, 05:07 PM
Tonight, I'm going to talk about the volatility crossroad: maybe a new bear market is in sight.

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com

Hence let me offer some perspective on some of these charts and I want to hone in specifically on volatility, or rather the great dying we’ve just witnessed. In the most recent weeks all fear appears to have left markets again and volatility has compressed to tight intra-day ranges such as we are witnessing today. All this action is rather reminiscent of the low volatility regime market participants had become accustomed to during the artificial liquidity bonanza of 2017.

Are we heading there again and the regular buy every dingle dip mantra takes over again? Or are we rather in the center of a larger storm, witnessing a temporary reprieve from the wily winds of volatility ready to strike again?

Firstly some basic perspective.

We remain in the middle of the range we have seen for the past few months:
(https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/SPX-range.png?itok=bnkD3IQo)

Perhaps ironic that volatility and fear has again subsided despite broader markets not showing significant progress from these earlier consolidation phases in the same price ranges.

But perhaps more notable is that this current volatility compression is coming at a very particular technical pivot point:
(https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/VXOD.png?itok=S2BaoVlJ)

The chart above shows a long term chart of the $VXO, the original formula of the $VIX. Here we can see a multi year descending trend line that has shown to be precise resistance between 2015 and 2017 and even during its first tag in 2018. The February correction subsequently saw a massive volatility spike breaking above that trend line and $VXO has remained above the trend line throughout.

Technically speaking, for bulls to find comfort in volatility resuming its 2017 type program it needs to break below this trend line. As it is support for now it opens up the possibility that this current volatility compression is a simple technical retest that could result in a major spike yet to come.

Something like this:
(https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/VIX-5.png?itok=0d6Jrt-g)

Hence volatility is at a major technical crossroad here with neither side having yet proven their case.

And both bullish and bearish considerations have their merit.

But note, that the most recent volatility patterns are forming potential descending wedges. These are bullish patterns if $VIX breaks out above.

And if that happens, the bearish interpretation of the $SPX chart could take control targeting a potential retest or even break of February lows:
(https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/SPXbear.png?itok=jwe5BCCi)

The structures of the above volatility charts suggest that markets will make up their minds in the near term.

For now things are quiet. Perhaps too quiet.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 24, 2018, 04:39 PM
In this video, another specialist is predicting a stock market crash of the US market. And he has interesting arguments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmNFXi9tLFc


Note that maybe I'm going to release a repack for farcry 4. I know that humbert dislikes FPS, but at least it's happening in the Himalaya with beautiful landscapes.
I didn't like Far Cry 5 (a kind of bad remake of Far Cry 4), there won't be any repack for this one.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 25, 2018, 05:42 AM
Today, an exceptional conference is available on the forum, with an interview of Michael Greenberger who says that a new financial crisis could be coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9hbJJ2g8p8

(https://preview.ibb.co/hcihfT/Untitled.png)

Michael Greenberger says unregulated credit default swaps could take down the economy—and taxpayers—again. In 2008 unregulated credit default swaps brought the economy to its knees. Ten years later, they may poised to do so again—unless policymakers reign in the big banks. That’s the call to arms of University of Maryland Law Professor Michael Greenberger, whose new INET Working Paper details how the largest American banks have quietly parked swaps oversees, thus evading the regulations designed to prevent another crisis. Professor Greenberger and INET President Rob Johmson talk about the paper, including how swaps work, the so-called “moral hazard” of banks knowing they can be bailed out by taxpayers, and how politicians in Washington and state capitals can ensure that risky swaps never again take down the economy. As Greenberger argues, despite the rosy picture of the economy painted by politicians and the media, the lurking danger of unregulated swaps is very much real.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 20, 2018, 05:44 AM
I'm expecting a crack in August on the stock markets. Indeed, the US and European markets are richly valued, and in the US they are even richly valued relative to rates.
That's why the markets are on the edge. A few minutes ago the cac40 declined suddenly by 1%. Beware of the upcoming drop.
(https://image.ibb.co/bXz4dd/cac40.png)



Note that sometimes, some users like Vasudev have problems with my game repacks. I must admit they are not 100% reliable. like the repacks of fitgirl and corepack. In fact, since repacks are games which are compressed with "custom-made" compressors, you can't be 100% sure they are going to work. However I test my repacks before releasing them. For the Evil within 2, I warned that the repack was buggy. For the others, you shouldn't have problems though, and if you have problems, start the install again (you may have to uninstall the game before).
Apparently, this one is experiencing problems with one repack. Let's advise him to be patient.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iX6O5rTl5s
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 25, 2018, 03:18 PM
Tonight, I'm going to talk about the s&p 500.

I'm going to talk about the chart that was already posted on 15 July in this topic.
As seen on this chart, if you are putting your cursor on 25 July, and at 2849 points (they were reached on the futures today), you are on the major top that was indicated...before a fall of the s&p 500. That's my scenario. On the short term the s&p 500 has been bullish indeed.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/fVGPTobf-The-Good-Days-are-Numbered/

The US markets are completely overbought and very expensive (for Amazon, the PER with the forecasted results is 90. For facebook, msft and Google, it is around 30-35).
And it's still thanks to the tech sector that the s&p 500 is climbing.
You can also read the article of that specialist, explaining that the US markets (both stock and real estate markets) are in a bubble.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/u-s-household-wealth-is-in-a-bubble-part-2/

Note that there have been rumors that Trump was going to ease US-EU trade tensions. How is he going to gather money with his tax cuts, the US is already broke?
After the closing, facebook is declining by 10% in after hours trading.


Here is a video, in French, with a specialist talking about the cac 40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inzc1Fh9st4

(https://preview.ibb.co/h0JDzT/se.png)




Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 15, 2018, 01:49 PM
A brief overview of the US stock market:

(https://image.ibb.co/neBWBU/s_p500.png)

I'm still bearish. Because overall, stocks are still expensive. Amazon and msft at 900 billion, if we calculate the current forward PER, we have 90 for the former and 40 for the latter.
(https://image.ibb.co/dkfoQp/bear.png)

Also, note that I'm still bullish for the $ against the €, with a target at 1.05 for the €/$ pair.

Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Shadow.97 on December 01, 2018, 06:50 PM
@scarface

What do you think of investing in Property?

I was considering trying to leverage my "wealth" by buying houses/properties/apartments in developing countries, in areas I believe could become popular and make them better and then rent out to people. This is however a long term goal, and nothing I will do in the coming 5 years. But perhaps within 10.

The main reason is:
It seems like a good way to save money until I can afford what I want in Sweden.
"Passive income"(not really.)
And of course, I just want to do it.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: humbert on December 01, 2018, 10:21 PM
I was considering trying to leverage my "wealth" by buying houses/properties/apartments in developing countries, in areas I believe could become popular and make them better and then rent out to people. This is however a long term goal, and nothing I will do in the coming 5 years. But perhaps within 10.

What developing countries did you have in mind? I'm assuming you did your homework and obtained as much information as possible about your possible targets.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 02, 2018, 04:14 AM
Well,
The main reason is:
It seems like a good way to save money until I can afford what I want in Sweden.
"Passive income"(not really.)
And of course, I just want to do it.
As humbert said, real estate trends can vary depending on the local situations.
And real estate is globally expensive, unless you have a lot of money, that's not something I would try. And since you are still at school, I doubt you are as rich as Bin Salman.
If you want to go abroad, and if you get to know the local real estate, why not.
As for Sweden, real estate is very expensive. Maybe you should get yourself a flat first.
But even there, chances are you won't earn money if real estate prices go down.
https://medium.com/scandieland/goldman-sachs-says-swedish-property-market-heading-for-worst-crash-since-1990s-banking-crisis-b16a215413ea

Note that In many countries, it's financially more interesting to rent than to buy.
For example, in India it takes nearly 45 years for rental income to cover real estate prices !
https://www.proptiger.com/guide/post/india-asias-most-expensive-real-estate-market
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: Shadow.97 on December 05, 2018, 06:17 AM
Well,
The main reason is:
It seems like a good way to save money until I can afford what I want in Sweden.
"Passive income"(not really.)
And of course, I just want to do it.
As humbert said, real estate trends can vary depending on the local situations.
And real estate is globally expensive, unless you have a lot of money, that's not something I would try. And since you are still at school, I doubt you are as rich as Bin Salman.
If you want to go abroad, and if you get to know the local real estate, why not.
As for Sweden, real estate is very expensive. Maybe you should get yourself a flat first.
But even there, chances are you won't earn money if real estate prices go down.
https://medium.com/scandieland/goldman-sachs-says-swedish-property-market-heading-for-worst-crash-since-1990s-banking-crisis-b16a215413ea

Note that In many countries, it's financially more interesting to rent than to buy.
For example, in India it takes nearly 45 years for rental income to cover real estate prices !
https://www.proptiger.com/guide/post/india-asias-most-expensive-real-estate-market
I'm just waiting on the housing market bubble to burst again.
I dont have the funds currently, and not I'm not planning on doing this for some time. I'm going to do my homework, but slowly.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on December 05, 2018, 06:18 PM
I'm just waiting on the housing market bubble to burst again.
I dont have the funds currently, and not I'm not planning on doing this for some time. I'm going to do my homework, but slowly.
This is a wise move.
We don't know if the housing market will burst after all. Maybe it won't.
But before thinking about buying flats to rent them, It's wiser to find accomodation for yourself. If you are buying sth you can't rent, if you are not paid, if you flat is trashed by the tenants, you also have to properly account for these risks. And in this case, you can lose money.
Also, you have to note that if the flat is not expensive and if you can obtain a good rental yield, Something is amiss (in French I would say "il y a anguille sous roche"). And the risk lies in not being able to rent your apartment. That's what I was saying in this message (I was speaking about you, but don't be afraid I wouldn't leave you in my trunk): http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=2283.msg29572#msg29572
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on January 22, 2019, 05:59 PM
Note that I updated the topic, since some images had been deleted with the closing of hostingpics.net. I had been right concerning bitcoin and snap, when I advised against buying that.
On boursorama, I held a conference early January 2018, saying that the Bitcoin would go below 3000$ by the end of 2018. And it did.
Now I think that the world economy is facing serious threats. And I think that the s&p 500 is still very high. In this context, maybe gold mining stocks could be a good bet.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 08, 2019, 06:34 AM
Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock market.

The cac 40 is going down today, following the American market decline. I bought a few socgen stocks today. Many stocks listed on the cac 40 are expensive, like LVMH or Hermes. As far as Societe generale is concerned, it gives an interesting yield now. In one year Socgen had an outstanding performance since the stock declined by 37%!

(https://i.ibb.co/Hn2VSKn/gle.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 09, 2019, 06:44 AM
Today, the stock market is crumbling once again. For aa1234779 to understand what is happening, I would use the word "badaboum".
In this video, a specialist explains the situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inzc1Fh9st4

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zhHBF85v_TI/hqdefault.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 12, 2019, 01:27 PM
Tonight, I'm going to talk about Uber's initial public offering.

Over the past decade, Uber changed urban transportation, disrupted entrenched taxi industries, defied regulators the world over and beat back questions about how it was altering the nature of work. And everything is not right for the firm: in Spain for example, taxi drivers are regularly protesting: they are calling the Uber drivers "cockroaches".


(https://mondrian.mashable.com/2015%252F07%252F03%252Fd2%252Fuberfrance.96304.jpg%252F950x534__filters%253Aquality%252890%2529.jpg?signature=TyhTx4ZXxFincgrXLxmSMA6JIok=)
A protest against Uber at porte Maillot in Paris.

On Friday, it was tamed by Wall Street.

(https://i.ibb.co/BTBDYvG/uber.jpg)

The ride-hailing giant’s first day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange began with a drop from its initial public offering price of $45, and its stock closed down 7.6 percent. By the end of Friday, Uber’s market capitalization, accounting for stock options and restricted stock, stood at $76.5 billion — barely above the $76 billion that private investors pegged it at in August.


You are probably wondering how a company that never earnt money can be valued at 82 billion $. undoubtedly, It makes usman and Maher laugh.
It reported an operating loss of $3 billion in 2018 after losing more than $4 billion the previous year.
For Forbes too, Uber's IPO Valuation Makes No Sense: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/04/22/ubers-ipo-valuation-makes-no-sense/#2c3ede27540d
But this is a bigger problem. In an article released 2 days ago in Le monde, we learn that Wall Street doesn't attract profitable companies any more (in French): https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2019/05/11/wall-street-ne-fait-plus-rever-les-societes-americaines_5460806_3234.html
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 13, 2019, 01:28 PM
Today the rout continues for Uber and the stock keeps tumbling. Apparently the lane departure warnings are not only affecting self-driving cars.
(https://i.ibb.co/CHPS3P3/uber2.jpg)

Vasudev and shadow.97 must be wondering if it's not a snapchat-like stocks, the kind that is losing 50% in the first five months. We'll know that soon enough.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 29, 2019, 02:12 AM
Here is a brief overview of the markets...

And we can see a marked decline in the French Stock exchange this morning.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 31, 2019, 02:11 AM
The stock markets are crumbling today after Trump erupted about immigration with Mexico. The cac40 is declining by 1% and the Futures dow jones are losing 200 points.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 31, 2019, 04:58 AM
The cac 40 is dropping nearly 1.5%. In French I would call that "une énorme baffe".


Note that I had to go to Firminy, a small town southwest of Saint Etienne, to change a tire. It cost me an arm and a leg.
Before going there, I did not know that Firminy was hosting the largest site of Le Corbusier in Europe. And I visited several sites. I will talk about them during an exceptional conference tonight. I'm sure that usmangujjar, aa1234779 or Maher will enjoy the photos.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on May 31, 2019, 05:23 AM
Today, I'm going to tell you what happened yesterday at the Facebook shareholder's meeting.

'Fire Zuck' projected onto location of Facebook shareholders' meeting

(https://i.ibb.co/XZb6tfH/zuck.jpg)

They say visualizing your goal is the first step toward making it a reality.

The nonprofit Fight for the Future leaned into that belief hard on Wednesday night with a giant projection calling for the firing of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Oh yeah, and it projected said message onto the side of the hotel hosting today's 11 a.m. Facebook shareholders' meeting.

"There is no single silver bullet solution that will 'fix' Facebook," the group wrote in a Medium post documenting the protest. "But we can start by sending a clear message to its shareholders, corporate leadership, & the entire tech industry that we are fed up, and that no one should be immune from facing the consequences of their actions."

The outside call to fire the CEO comes on the heels of an April proposal by Facebook investors to oust Zuckerberg. Similar discontent with the CEO was shown by investors at the 2018 shareholders' meeting. In other words, this call for charge at Facebook's top isn't new — although it perhaps gets more urgent with each passing scandal.

According to a Fight for the Future spokesperson, the projection was up on the side of the Hotel Nia in Palo Alto from roughly an hour until 10 p.m. last night. "[One passerby] had a FB badge and as soon as he saw the projection put his head down and walked faster," the spokesperson told us over email.

At least one other, however, seemed more amenable to the call for change — agreeing with the nonprofit that Facebook treats its contractors poorly.

"[The] person came out of hotel and told us he worked with FB," the spokesperson continued. "He thanked us for doing what we were doing and said he agreed with us: 'It's actually not that crazy of an idea.'"

Fight for the Future wasn't the only group with plans to protest the annual meeting. The consumer group SumOfUs has partnered with the activist group Bend the Arc to attempt to deliver a giant inflatable "angry emoji" to Zuckerberg.

Notably, Zuckerberg has the majority voting share of Facebook, so it's unlikely that any proposal calling for his ouster or the company's fragmentation will be successful. At least, not today. But hey, you never get what you want if you don't ask for it first.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 05, 2019, 05:34 PM
Here are 2 new articles about the US economy...

And they say that a recession could hit the US pretty soon.
In French: https://www.lecho.be/economie-politique/international/usa/une-recession-se-profile-aux-etats-unis/10132672.html
In English: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/morgan-stanley-says-economy-on-recession-watch-amid-bond-warning.html

In any case, I advise you to be cautious with the equity market.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on June 09, 2019, 08:26 PM
Tonight, I'm going to hold a conference about the stock markets, with an excellent article of the columnist Mark Hulbert.

According to this specialist, Stock bulls are telling themselves a lot of lies about this market.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2017/06/27/Photos/ZH/MW-FP300_pinocc_20170627163649_ZH.jpg?uuid=5854f6ae-5b78-11e7-a875-9c8e992d421e)

The U.S. stock market is overvalued now, period.

That would be worth keeping in mind at any time, of course, but especially now with the major market averages significantly off their late-April peaks. If current valuations were reasonable, then we could count on them to provide a safety net below this market.

Unfortunately we can’t. Yet many stock-market bulls contend that such a safety net does exist. Some are arguing that the stock market correction in late 2018 worked off many previous valuation excesses. One adviser Humbert monitors contended that “valuation metrics [in late April] for the S&P SPX, +1.05%  [were] much lower than where they were last year.”

And Mark Hulbert disagrees: Though valuations did improve between the market’s late-September and late-April peaks, the improvement was so slight as to barely improve equities’ outlook. Consider perhaps the most popular valuation measure: The price/earnings ratio. At the S&P 500’s late-September peak, the P/E ratio based on trailing 12 months as-reported earnings stood at 22.5. At its late-April peak, in contrast, it stood at 21.9 — less than 3% lower.

To understand how modest a decline that is, consider a simple econometric model that uses the P/E ratio to predict the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the subsequent 12 months. Hulbert constructed this model using data back to 1871 from Yale University finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller. The reduction in P/E from September to April translates into an increased forecasted return of just 6 basis points.

Good luck with that. The message of other valuation measures is similar. Consider five on which Hulbert also focused for this column: The cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE), made famous by Yale’s Shiller; the price-to-book and price-to-sales ratios; the dividend yield, and the Q-Ratio (calculated by dividing market value by the replacement cost of assets). The accompanying chart shows the percentage of past bull market peaks that had lower valuations than what prevailed at the market’s late-April high.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2019/06/03/Photos/ZH/MW-HK684_overva_20190603110339_ZH.jpg?uuid=c551d3ca-8610-11e9-8a64-9c8e992d421e)

Notice that the market at that high was more overvalued than it was at anywhere between 86% and 100% of past bull market peaks (depending on which valuation measure used). The overwhelming message: Don’t look to valuations to cushion any decline.

This doesn’t mean that a bear market began at its late-April peak, of course. The stock market has been overvalued for a number of years now and, for the most part, has continued to produce impressive returns. What the valuation measures do mean is this: You’re on shaky ground if you have been giving the bull market the benefit of the doubt because of its allegedly reasonably valuation. You either need to find some other reason to be bullish, or to reduce your bullishness.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 17, 2019, 07:08 AM
Today I'm going to talk about the financial markets.
Given the level of the overall markets, I advise you to sell your stocks. That's what I did this morning: I sold 35% of my societe general stocks at 23.40€.
https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPGLE/
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 17, 2019, 03:00 PM
Note that I've been right concerning Socgen...for today. The next days will say if selling above 23€ was the right thing to do. I'm expecting a correction on the markets pretty soon anyway. For Socgen, the first target could be 22.1€, 3% below the current level.
(https://i.ibb.co/dg9mPK2/socgen.jpg)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJH-cM3glhc
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 30, 2019, 08:12 AM
The stock markets are crumbling today.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Note that the biggest drops are the banks.
In this context, I advise Ahmad and Maher to buy a few gold coins and some goats.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on July 31, 2019, 02:13 PM
Powell is currently speaking.
The euro as well as the US markets are crumbling.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/devises/taux-de-change-euro-dollar-EUR-USD/

In this context, gold should go up, but it's not the case.

Live stream for the conference here: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/watch-fed-chair-jerome-powells-news-conference-live-following-first-rate-cut-in-a-decade.html
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 01, 2019, 06:27 AM
Today, I advise you to sell société générale. That's what I did, at 23.35€ this morning. Maybe you will be able to come back at a lower price, the support being around 22,30€. A few days ago, I told you that the target was at 22.10, and yesterday socgen was at this price indeed. It was a perfect level to buy.
https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPGLE/

Note that the Euro keeps tumbling today, as Dollar enjoys broad-based rally against major currencies.
Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, further cuts are not certain.
U.S.-China trade talks ended with no progress.


shadow.97 or aa1234779 are probably wondering if they can stay bullish on gold. I think gold will keep gleaming indeed.

The precious metal is on track for its third straight month of gains
And the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates is bullish for gold even if we saw a correction yesterday.
Most analysts think it looks it’s poised to head even higher.
“The Fed cut interest rates for the first time since 2008 with the market at all-time highs here, trying to continue the upward trajectory in economic growth. Gold has been a very good beneficiary, ” Gordon said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “I see an opportunity to put another GLD trade on.”
Gordon was referring to SPDR Gold Shares, the largest exchange-traded fund in the market that invests in physical gold. In late June, he predicted the GLD would pull back to near its mid-2016 highs — but when it didn’t, it made him even more bullish.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 01, 2019, 12:54 PM
Within minutes, the Dow Jones just tumbled over 300 points this evening. In this context, I still advise you to have defensive positions.
Gold is bullish again today, Newmont goldcorp, agnico and Barrick Gold are soaring.
I'm bullish on Gold stocks. For the other stocks, I'm waiting for a correction (and I still have some socgen stocks, but I sold 30% of the position at 23.35€, as I said earlier. Socgen closed at 23.50€).

The cac 40 futures are now showing a decline of 1.5% (shadow.97 and aa1234779 must be thinking that tomorrow will be red indeed).

(https://i.ibb.co/x2wT8Jw/Ig-markets.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 02, 2019, 02:14 AM
Well, a small crash is taking place this morning on the European markets.
I advise you to buy a few stocks if you don't have any:
- For Socgen or Renault, it might be an interesting price (I bought some Rno this morning at 48.50 €, shortly after the opening of the markets)
- After Eramet's share price dropped by 33% in a month, it might be a good bet on the short term too.

https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 02, 2019, 06:35 AM
To understand what is happening:
European stock markets have fallen after the surprise decision by Donald Trump to impose new tariffs on a further $300bn of Chinese imports.

The FTSE 100 and the leading indexes in France and Germany all fell by more than 2% each.

The US president's decision came after the latest round of bilateral talks showed little sign of a breakthrough.

The 10% tariffs, due to take effect on 1 September, effectively tax all Chinese imports to the US.

The FTSE 100 dropped by 2% to 7,426.13 points. In Germany, the Dax index dropped by 2.57 % and the Cac 40 in France declined by 2.82%
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 02, 2019, 09:11 AM
The cac 40 keeps crumbling: -3%.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Note that I'm remaining bullish on gold.
As far as silver is concerned, well I don't see any bullishness. I guess aa1234779 and usman would agree with me if I was speaking of "slugishness" instead.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 04, 2019, 10:46 PM
Well, I'm going to give you a quick insight of the stock markets today.

You are probably wondering what is going to happen on the markets today.
Here is a screenshot for the futures of the cac40, the dax and Wall Street.
(https://i.ibb.co/MG8GkPc/ig.jpg)

And it seems it's going to smell like dog poo today.
(https://i.ibb.co/JKFVb7z/wallstreetrollercoaster.gif)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 05, 2019, 03:27 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/ScFSGgt/mb.jpg)


(https://i.ibb.co/ngsX53S/bourso.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 05, 2019, 04:00 AM
My current strategy:
I stay bearish on stocks. I think the cac 40 can go to 5200 points (25800 points for the Dow Jones).
On these levels, We may see a short term rebound, but I don't think there will be an upward trend on the middle term.

I remain bullish on Gold and on Gold stocks.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 05, 2019, 04:07 AM
Note that I sold Renault this morning, at 49.7€ (making a small capital gain). In the current context I didn't want to take risks. If the stock price is going up, no matter. Current price 49.25€.

Note that I advise you to buy Eramet for a short term trade...
The price of nickel, which is used as a key raw material for cathode material of a secondary battery, has increased by almost 40% compared to the price of nickel at the beginning of this year. Stock of nickel has reached its lowest point within the past six years. It is expected that the price of nickel will continue to go up as there are huge demands for electric vehicle battery while there is limited supply.
Spot price of nickel traded within LME (London Metal Exchange) has shown steep increase since last month and it recorded its highest price within the past year at $14,685 per ton.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 05, 2019, 05:37 AM
Today, I'm going to hold a conference about a remote and secluded country. It is very densely populated. The photo will probably help you locate this country.
(https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/80f5f04e-0464-4777-9c65-ae3c575a8365.jpeg)

I'm going to help you a bit more.
In this country, investors are worried about the deteriorating political crisis, slowing economic growth in the region and escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. Its stock exchange lost 2.85% last night (Night for those who are in Europe or in the US).

I guess that Vasudev and humbert are thinking about the Gaza strip. The picture shows modern buildings and a lot of young people in the street, it could be over there indeed.



Actually the scene is taking place in Hong Kong. And there is no end in sight to HK's summer of unrest.

In the hours before Beijing's top office responsible for Hong Kong affairs held the first press conference in its history on Monday, rumours started swirling about how China might respond to the two months of unrest in the former British colony.

Would Beijing finally sack the city's ineffective leader Carrie Lam and agree to withdraw the controversial bill that became a tinderbox for wider concerns about civil liberties and the economy? Or would Xi Jinping put his foot down and send in the People's Liberation Army (PLA)?

China did neither, instead declaring its full support for Lam's administration and the police while urging Hong Kong citizens not to tolerate "violent acts" and "radical" behaviour.

When asked about the PLA deployment option, officials simply pointed to provisions in Hong Kong's mini-constitution which allows the government to ask for Beijing's assistance to restore.

Beijing's official response to two months of unrest was relatively restrained. The Chinese Communist Party was never going to make concessions to the protesters, particularly to demands for more democracy. But it also knows the international backlash that would follow if it took a more aggressive stance on Hong Kong's affairs.

Beijing, which has other fires to put out as it fights a trade war with Donald Trump, is playing the long game. It is betting on the unrest dying down and public opinion turning against the protest movement.

"They hope protesters will get tired. They will somehow go too far and lose the support of the public in Hong Kong and once they lose momentum they can start ratching up the oppression again by arresting democracy leaders, protesters etcetera and that will slowly bring the city back to order," Ben Bland, director of the Southeast Asia Project at the Lowy Institute, told CNBC.

"That didn't work in 2014, but that seems to be the strategy they [are] adopting again, muddling through somehow."

Another option is a more covert approach by Beijing towards Hong Kong.  In China, the propaganda in state-owned media has shifted from ignoring the events in Hong Kong to portraying protesters as violent rioters while calling for the protection of the “rule of law”.  Indirectly, it can influence how the city's leaders, police and even paid thugs from Hong Kong itself or the mainland deal the protest movement.

For the tens of thousands of people who have spent their past eight weekends protesting and hundreds of thousands of others who joined peaceful marches, China's position does not change anything.

The weekly violent clashes between police and protesters will not end along with the city's long, hot summer. The unique aspect of the protest movement is that it is leaderless, which makes it difficult to control. The events of the past two months have also shown that Hong Kong people are not as compliant as Beijing would like.

Many of the protesters are young, do not have foreign passports and having nothing to lose if they think their economic future or civil liberties are threatened.

The sight of tear gas wafting through busy residential and shopping districts has oddly become the norm for a city unaccustomed to violence. Increasingly, ordinary people are being caught up in the chaos. The tourists out for dinner in Shueng Wan with their kids on Sunday night whose eyes were stinging from tear gas or the passengers on an underground train last weekend who were beaten up with batons by pro-Beijing criminal gang members.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 05, 2019, 12:20 PM
Tonight, the Dow Jones is dropping 700 points. The target at 25800 points was reached, since it broke that level.
The reaction of the market is going to be interesting now. I think that tomorrow will be red once again on the European indexes, following the rout of Wall Street (We'll see that tonight at 4pm in the US). Maybe there could be a moment of sheer panick tomorrow and a sell off (25 000 for the Dow and 5100 for the cac). But then a small rebound may take place...But on the long term, I think it's time to get a bit bearish, with the Chinese slowdown and some mixed results in Europe (for car makers and retailers for example).

As expected, Gold stocks are literally exploding upward.



Note that if Maher needs a donation he can contact me by pm.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 05, 2019, 03:13 PM
Tonight, the Dow Jones dived 861 points as trade war worsens.
U.S. stocks nosedived as China's currency fell sharply and stoked fears that the trade war between the U.S. and China will again escalate.
Maher and usman are probably wondering how the Palestinian or the Pakistani stock exchange are going to react tomorrow. I don't know. In Palestine the goat traders are certainly going to shrug off these issues. But as far as the European markets are concerned, the storm is far from over.
(https://i.ibb.co/pXFF3nY/ig.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 05, 2019, 05:47 PM
A crack is likely to happen tomorrow morning. Right now the Dow Jones is losing 445 points according to the futures.
Fortunately I have a big coverage with Gold stocks (35000€ !) with significant capital gains. But I still have a "small position" on Socgen (15000€) and Eramet (4000€) with significant losses. However, I kept those positions because they were losing. Since the beginning of the year, I didn't make any "losing trade". And the position on socgen sold a few days ago was a winning trade too. Actually, I think that I couldn't have taken a better decision, regarding what happened on the markets.
I will tell you tomorrow morning before the opening of the markets (7am GMT) what I'm buying, and if I'm buying something.
(https://i.ibb.co/xD0jV3B/ig2.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 06, 2019, 02:07 AM
This morning the futures were not red any more. Therefore I didn't see any opportunity on the markets.
Eramet seems to be a good bet at the current price for those who want to buy sth, as long as the level of the 38€ withstands. Look at the Nickel price since early July: https://fr.investing.com/commodities/nickel?cid=959208

Rno stock is up 2%. It was a mistake to sell yesterday. if the cac loses 50 points to go below 5200 today, maybe I'll come back to say what to buy (to sum up the situation in French: "on achètera si ça se pète la gueule").
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 06, 2019, 04:23 AM
Note that I sold some Eramet (half of the positions, the ones bought yesterday). My Stategy is not "buy and hold". Actually, I think it's only a technical rebound" and I advise you to sell some stocks too, the cac 40 is up 0,89% right now.
I expect societe generale to return below 22€ to buy back some stocks.
I'm still bullish on Gold and bearish on the €/$ pair.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 06, 2019, 10:23 AM
The cac 40 is now...red...I was saying it was only a technical rebound a few hours ago.

Note that I will hold some conferences tonight on the forum.
First and foremost, I will talk about gold. Then I will post a few photos of Saint Etienne. I hope Maher, Vasudev, usman, shadow.97 and aa1234779 will be present.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 06, 2019, 03:47 PM
Tonight, I'm going to talk about gold and about the reasons why I think its price will rise, at least on the short term.
So, should you bet on the glitter of Keynes’ barbarous relic ?


Gold prices are currently rising as the Fed cut rates and US president signalled fresh trade aggression vis-à-vis China. When risks rise in asset markets, many investors turn to the yellow metal for safety. Of course, gold is no asset, for it yields no returns, even if its capital value could appreciate over time.

(https://i.ibb.co/LzkvSFY/fmd-385447.jpg)

Investment advisors over the decades have grown hoarse advising people to stay away from what John Maynard Keynes, no less, described as a “barbarous relic". Money put in gold does little for the economy. Since it has no productive value, it is seen as a dead weight by investors who insist all money should be put to work in generating more of it by way of economic activity that results in jobs and incomes.

However, none of that seems to deter people from buying gold. A glance at the metal’s prices over a century is indicative of a steady increase in demand with occasional slumps. The global reason for this is that gold is seen not just as a safe haven, something that can survive any financial meltdown, but also as a “hedge" against inflation, since its value is expected to rise in line with general price levels. While currencies can easily be debased by excessively loose fiscal and monetary policies, gold supply has natural limits; this means that so long as people want the stuff, its price cannot fall below a certain level. Currently, what with all the global uncertainty, it seems on an incline.

Consider the Indian market: India’s demand for gold jewellery hit a four-year high in the first quarter of 2019 at 125.4 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Traditionally, Indians have been biased towards gold, viewing it from a cultural prism and not just as an investment. It could yet happen that people outgrow gold as a store of value, but that day still looks far away. In the meantime, gold buyers can go buy the precious metal without worrying too much about what their portfolio advisors say.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 07, 2019, 07:29 AM
As you can see on the graph below, gold broke a resistance at 1475$. We'll stay bullish, the next target is at 1542$.

(https://i.ibb.co/DVbwVsZ/Gold.png)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 07, 2019, 07:59 AM
It seems that the stock markets in the US as well as in Europe remain bearish in the current context.
The Dow Jones futures are losing 278 points right now. The market seems fragile. The cac 40 is only up 25 points, vs 77 points 2 hours ago. It's nosediving again, and maybe it will be red this afternoon.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 07, 2019, 08:28 AM
If you have currently no stock at all, maybe you can try a first buy on societe generale at 22€. The recent correction made it more reasonably priced, even if it can lower. I still find the stocks of the luxury sector very expensive, even if this remains a growth industry.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 07, 2019, 09:05 AM
The rebound did not last...

(https://i.ibb.co/k0KpRm8/cac40.jpg)

In the meantime, gold is soaring. +2.4% today. I'm wondering if 1542€ is not even too low a target. At this pace, it's 1800$ per ounce by the end of the month.
https://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 07, 2019, 02:45 PM
Apparently there has been a reversal trend. The Dow Jones ended flat. The cac 40 will be up 0.8% tomorrow.


Note that I've seen a young hoodlum, in a lousy car, listening to bad music. I made a grimace, like mr baboon, to show him I was not into that. He understood that he was obviously no match.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 08, 2019, 08:45 AM
Today, eramet and societe generale are soaring.
Those who followed my advice are earning money.
I bought more share of societe generale yesterday at 22€. It will be hard to break the thresold of 23€ though. I put a sell order at 22.9€. top of the day: 22.84€...
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 09, 2019, 02:15 AM
Despite an opening in negative territory this morning in Europe, I think the technical rebound is likely to continue today. I have a target at 5400 for the cac and 26500 for the Dow Jones before a probable trend reversal. If the Cac 40 goes back to 5400, maybe you can try to buy the short tracker BX4. And if you are a really aggressive trader (you want to bet on the fall of the S&P 500 and a rise in the $/€ pair, you can try the DSP5 (you have to include the currency risk in your strategy).
Note that I sold Eramet above 41€. In the current context, I will only come back if there is another decline in the stock price. As for Socgen, I'm reducing the position at 23€.
Note that I'm staying bullish on gold.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 09, 2019, 05:04 AM
Visibly, there is no "technical rebound", I was wrong.
(http://i.ytimg.com/vi/iNUMYBJOZTE/hqdefault.jpg)

The cac 40 is sinking.
(https://i.ibb.co/SNyVKPb/cac40.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 12, 2019, 03:51 AM
This morning I'm going to give you a quick insight into the financial markets.

The cac 40 was up 1% a hour ago, it's now red. The markets are very nervous. In the current context, I think the markets are bearish. Let's stay bullish on gold...
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 12, 2019, 01:55 PM
The Dow Jones is currently dropping 470 points. The next session will be interesting for the Asian and European markets.
(https://i.ibb.co/K6ptdW8/DJ.jpg)
They already closed in negative territory and the futures are indicating further losses for tomorrow.
Gold is up 1.04% at 1513$. In this context we stay bullish on gold stocks too.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 13, 2019, 01:51 AM
This morning, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.


U.S. stocks fell Monday after escalating protests in Hong Kong weighed on already-dampened investor sentiment.
Losses accelerated into the final hour of trading as U.S. Treasury yields tumbled. Monday marked the ninth consecutive trading session of an at least 1% intraday move in the S&P 500.


This morning, the futures are still ugly, as the picture shows. In this context, gold is up 1.23% at 1523$.
And yet, I recommend the stock Societe generale at 21.8€ with a target at 23.5€. With a PE of 6, it's one of the cheapest bank stock in the European markets.
(https://i.ibb.co/BT53ycc/igm.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 13, 2019, 04:40 AM
The stock markets are crumbling.
-0.62% for the cac40 right now.
Practically everything is red in the estx 50.
https://fr.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50-components
(https://i.ibb.co/F4TvGyQ/cac40.jpg)

In the meantime, gold and silver are going up.
(https://i.ibb.co/XJvVvQn/gold.jpg)


Well, some of us are on vacation, and maybe it's high time we drank a little Pastis-tomato.
(https://i.ibb.co/WtR2pTB/tomate-pastis.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 13, 2019, 10:04 AM
Those who bought some Societe generale at 21.8€ this morning got a good deal. It's actually at 22.38€. I sold a few minutes ago at 22.49€ the stocks I bought yesterday. The stock hit 21.43€ this morning, this is a 5% rebound !
There is currently a technical rebound on the European markets. But for me the trend is still bearish. There is a correction on gold stocks. It might be a good opportunity to buy some Agnico Eagles mines or Newmont Goldcorp stocks.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 14, 2019, 04:10 AM
As intended, the stock markets are still in a bearish trend...
(https://i.ibb.co/4TkQBjK/cac40.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 14, 2019, 08:58 AM
Well, the investors of the forum like shadow.97, humbert and usmangujjar must be thinking I was right to warn them this morning. The cac 40 is literally collapsing, dropping 100 points. The cac 40 is currently falling nearly 2%.
(https://i.ibb.co/t8Ssr7V/cac40.jpg)

There are signs of a looming recession, as Germany's economy shrank during the April-to-June period of this year.
A decline in exports dampened growth, according to official data, which comes amid concerns of a global slowdown.
Early signs for the third quarter "look ominous", said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. "Manufacturing business surveys for July were all gloomy.
"And while the services sector should continue to hold up better, there are some signs that the slump is spreading to the labour market."

In this context, I'm still bearish on the markets and particularly on car stocks like Renault and Bmw, even if there is now a long lasting correction in this sector.
We'll stay bullish on gold. Currently gold is up 0.89% at 1515$ per once.
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 14, 2019, 02:44 PM
Maybe a target at 5150 for the cac 40, 25000 for the Dow Jones, and 1580$ for gold.
(https://i.ibb.co/XCHSkc3/ig.jpg)
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 15, 2019, 03:24 AM
I still see a lot of bearishness in the markets. This morning, the European markets are red, despite a positive opening. The Cac 40 and the Dax are both declining by 0.10%.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/
Title: Re: Financial news and stock markets.
Post by: scarface on August 15, 2019, 04:52 AM
The cac 40 is nosediving. It's now losing roughly 1% amid plunging treasury yields.