Maher's Digital World

Financial news and stock markets.

Offline scarface

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Financial news and stock markets.
« on: February 26, 2015, 12:28 PM »
Tonight, I'm going to talk about the financial markets.
I'm pasting an article released yesterday which highlights the risks about investments in stocks today:
There is overwhelming evidence that the next stock market crash could strike any day now, and a growing number of investors are turning to a noted economist to prepare for the “unthinkable.”

The message is clear: Despite the Dow hitting pre-crash highs, companies reporting positive earnings, and the financial media saying we are looking at the “beginning of a new bull market,” the stock market is on the verge of another historic collapse.

The evidence is in a group of charts released by some of the biggest names on Wall Street.
Individually, these charts may not mean much. But taken collectively, they are simply too much for any investor to ignore.

The first chart shows that the annual S&P 500 consensus earnings-per-share is expected to come in much lower than originally thought. Despite the warning sign of falling earnings, the S&P continues to climb.
-Here is the most recent chart I found to illustrate this-
The eps have been revised downards recently, which shows that a recession could come close.



The second chart shows that stocks are currently very expensive compared to their 10-year average. While stocks typically have a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, they now sit at a ratio closer to 23. That means stocks are priced 53% higher than their 10-year average, which should worry any investor.
-The most recent figures show that the per of the sp500 is now standing at a whopping 27...-


The third chart shows that investors are extremely bullish on the market right now. The reading is nearing a 10-year high, and most of us know from experience what happens when market sentiment is too far one way or the other; a snapback occurs. If the “herd” is this bullish, it’s generally a good idea to be very cautious.


The fourth chart shows that the VIX, or volatility index, is near a historic low. As the markets have rebounded over the last few years, investors have become complacent. They have priced nearly all risk out of the market, and it will only take one scary event to send volatility higher and investors fleeing the markets.

And finally, the fifth chart shows that the last two times the market climbed this high, a severe correction took place. The first two advances were over 100%, and then followed by a crash of roughly 50%. With the latest rally topping 100%, it is very likely that the market is setting up for another drastic correction.

With the evidence of a market crash growing every day, many investors have turned to a noted economist for a help.
Robert Wiedemer, who along with a team of economists correctly predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States during the “Great Recession,” recently recorded a controversial interview in which he predicts that the coming market crash will result in a 90% stock market drop, 50% unemployment, and 100% annual inflation starting this year.

Another agency is announcing the same thing. 1929 was nearly one century ago. However in the world in finance, the black Thursday is still a ghost, a shadow, a threat around the corner. Nobody had seen it coming except a small agency that had foreseen that everything was bound to collapse. His founder, Jerome Levy, had sold all his stocks on month before the crash, avoiding the bankruptcy. In 2007, this same agency had foreseen the sub-prime crisis.
When that same agency is foreseeing a new crisis in 2015, the world should be scared, but it's not the case. This agency, Jerome Levy Forecasting center, is not a big firm, but it's recognized in the whole world as particularly talented to foresee the worst events.
For 2015, they are announcing a tough recession in the US. Indeed, it's investing more and more in foreign markets, even though their growth is dramatically slowing. A paradox which can seem absurd for a country which has been severally struck by the 2008 crisis.
More prosaically, Europe is trying desperately not to drown because the governments of the member countries are not bold enough to do the necessary reforms.
For Levy, even if this goes against all the rhetoric we are hearing these days, this prognosis could come true.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2015, 09:59 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2015, 03:37 PM »
I'm going to talk about the BSE Sensex, the index of Bombay in India, maybe my opinion can interest those who come from Asia and it seems they are numerous on the forum.
Here is a chart.


Today there has been a sharp decline, the Sensex losing 555 points, as disappointing corporate earnings seems to be keeping investors nervous. The Sensex lost 1,160 points in the last four trading sessions as foreign funds turned to heavy selling in frontline stocks as more FPIs received notices from tax authorities on minimum alternative tax (MAT).

Personally I think that there could be a bubble in Asia. I read that Chinese people not able to read were opening accounts to buy stocks...There is euphoria, but valuations are becoming tight.
The graph of the Sensex is also showing some signs of bubble. So the correction could continue if corporate earnings are bad. I don't know if there is a bubble in India but while it was standing between 16000 and 18000 in 2012 and 2013, it's now standing at 27000...
Clearly, I think that the American markets are expensive. There are political problems in Europe, and a bubble in China.
I think caution is needed and I'm expecting a fall of several markets sometime during the second half of 2015.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/31/chinas-stock-market-sure-looks-like-a-bubble/
« Last Edit: April 07, 2019, 11:32 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2015, 03:07 AM »
I was right about the markets. They are crumbling today, once again.
www.boursorama.com/bourse/
I still have significant bearish positions.
In this old video, the trader Delamarche was foreseeing a cac40 at 2000 points. And his prophecy could come true.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnL3_kj9EI
The situation in Greece, but also the war in Ukraine, and the invasion of the Islamists in Lybia bode ill for the future. You have to be prepared. Those who are "genocided" are the ones who are "genocidable". You are warned.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2015, 09:06 PM »
Today, I'm going to make a speech, giving you a few elements since I'm not the only one predicting an upcoming crash.
The upward revisions of European growth should not hide uncertainties. In case of crash, public authorities (governments and central banks) have already played their last cards. Economist Marc Touati predicted that The world economy is going to collapse.



For now, all is well! Everything's even better, according to some. And for good reason: according to the IMF, the ECB and many economic research institutes, the European Commission raised its growth forecasts for the euro-zone and for France in 2015. Beautiful!

But then, as we have often shown, consensus is very often wrong. That’s when everyone thinks the same thing that we should begin to worry. And that, especially when the forecasts of the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission are converging. It would be useful, for example, to recall that in 2007 and early 2008, these three institutions stressed that Euroland's economy was doing wonders and provided steady growth for 2008-2009, accompanied by high inflation. This is also partly because of this announced dynamism that the ECB raised its key interest rates in late 2007 and until July 2008. Better, in most of its reports since 2006, the European Commission and the IMF kept praising the economic success of Spain, Portugal and Greece!

Obviously, it would be difficult to do worse. That is what happened when in 2011 these institutions announced the strong upturn in growth in the euro area, the ECB even matching words with action by increasing twice its refi rate. If the past is dead and does not serve much of rubbing salt in a still open wound, these forecast errors nonetheless recall that the newest results of the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission must be taken very carefully.
The latest survey data, including purchasing managers’ indexes, the IFO institute, INSEE, but also the European Commission, are also clear: business outlook is already down. Consequently, After good growth through the first quarters, a marked slowdown or even a decline of the GDP is expected to occur in the euro area and in particular in France in the second quarter.

But that's not all, because if investors and the economic and financial world as a whole are accustomed to economic weakness in the euro area, they are frightened by the looming slowdown in the US and China. In this context, and as has already begun for ten days, financial markets could experience multiple storms, preceding a crash that would break out by next fall.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 09:10 PM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2015, 02:20 AM »
Today the European stocks exchanges are crumbling again, after a fall yesterday.
With the rise in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro/dollar, I think this movement is likely to continue.
My targets are bearish and very clear: 13000 for the dow jones, 8000 for the dax and 3500 for the cac40.
http://www.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

Don' forget that a few years ago Delamarche had a target at 2000 for the cac40.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnL3_kj9EI

Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2015, 11:05 AM »
Today the European stocks exchanges are crumbling again, after a fall yesterday.
With the rise in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro/dollar, I think this movement is likely to continue.
My targets are bearish and very clear: 13000 for the dow jones, 8000 for the dax and 3500 for the cac40.
http://www.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

Don' forget that a few years ago Delamarche had a target at 2000 for the cac40.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnL3_kj9EI

I have a lot of money put into stocks. Is the best thing just to put the money into a savings account instead?

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2015, 05:02 PM »
Quote
I have a lot of money put into stocks. Is the best thing just to put the money into a savings account instead?
It depends if you have gains or not. It also depends on the markets. A quick look at the SSE shows a 20% increase over one year.

Personally I think would be wise to sell, at least some of them if not all.
The uptrend in global equities has been mainly due to liquidity injections, but on the other side, I'm rather pessimistic on the world economy and the rise in oil prices and the rate increase could be a harbinger for a significant correction in the months to come.
Well today Ive been wrong since the markets closed higher, but the news about Greece or the slowdown of the US economy remains disquieting.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2019, 11:36 AM by scarface »

Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2015, 03:32 PM »
The party started: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/15/greece-pays-public-sector-wages-economic-crisis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11608333/Greece-avoids-domestic-default-as-cash-scramble-gets-desperate.html

There is no consensus of the public opinion as to what reforms must be made. The political leadership of the country is struggling to find a politically viable solution, with no success so far. Cash outflow from banks rises. The elite is unwilling to leave the eurozone but on the same time too many people (3.5 million + their families) are unwilling to accept the imposed reforms. A chaotic scenario is quietly unfolding.

On a side note, Turkish helicopters and planes are increasingly violating the Greek airspace over the Aegean. This might be an additional source of trouble in case of a financial collapse; geopolitical destabilization of the entire area is very likely. Thus I believe there will be a serious turmoil in the short run, which might become important even on a global scale.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2015, 03:36 PM by harkaz »

Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2015, 06:42 PM »
Getting ready to default... We have some T-bills to pay up as well on June 12th... Let's remember: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/24/greek-debts-what-does-it-owe-when-will-the-money-run-out
No one talks about it. Last time we took money from Greek embassies to stay afloat. Now what? It will take at least 2 weeks to reach a deal with creditors to pay up our older debts.

Today this happened:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/05/business/international/greece-debt-talks-ecb-imf-european-commission.html?_r=0

Unsurprisingly (at least for me), the Greek PM chose not to pay the IMF at this moment. We're running out of money here. I'm not so well informed to predict an exact default date, however.

In the meanwhile, most Greek people are confident that "a credit event will not happen, they won't let it happen". At the same time, the political leadership is obsessed with maintaining pensions and salaries of the official sector at a rather high level, and insists to stress the economy with high taxes. Everyone has become absurd here.

Staying in the eurosystem has not been viable for Greece since 2010. It was forced to stay so that other European banks could get rid of greek assets. Now that most of them are protected enough, they will not care about a default at all.

Don't expect any politician to save the greek economy. They are all corrupt and incapable of handling such a situation. Moreover, we Greeks have a tendency to fight against each other for any reason you can think, and in the case of default, it will be impossible to agree on what to do next.

PS @scarface Interested in your latest ISO.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2015, 03:08 AM »
For Greece, let's hope there will be a miracle.

For the iso, lets wait for next tuesday.
As I said I also integrated every c++ redistributable packs. They are often needed. Maher might be interested for his iso.
I will also provide the forum with a vb script, which is activating microsoft update (instead of wu) automatically after a double click. Unfortunately, I found no way to integrate it.