Author Topic: Financial news and stock markets.  (Read 42179 times)

February 26, 2015, 12:28 PM
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Tonight, I'm going to talk about the financial markets.
I'm pasting an article released yesterday which highlights the risks about investments in stocks today:
There is overwhelming evidence that the next stock market crash could strike any day now, and a growing number of investors are turning to a noted economist to prepare for the “unthinkable.”

The message is clear: Despite the Dow hitting pre-crash highs, companies reporting positive earnings, and the financial media saying we are looking at the “beginning of a new bull market,” the stock market is on the verge of another historic collapse.

The evidence is in a group of charts released by some of the biggest names on Wall Street.
Individually, these charts may not mean much. But taken collectively, they are simply too much for any investor to ignore.

The first chart shows that the annual S&P 500 consensus earnings-per-share is expected to come in much lower than originally thought. Despite the warning sign of falling earnings, the S&P continues to climb.
-Here is the most recent chart I found to illustrate this-
The eps have been revised downards recently, which shows that a recession could come close.



The second chart shows that stocks are currently very expensive compared to their 10-year average. While stocks typically have a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, they now sit at a ratio closer to 23. That means stocks are priced 53% higher than their 10-year average, which should worry any investor.
-The most recent figures show that the per of the sp500 is now standing at a whopping 27...-


The third chart shows that investors are extremely bullish on the market right now. The reading is nearing a 10-year high, and most of us know from experience what happens when market sentiment is too far one way or the other; a snapback occurs. If the “herd” is this bullish, it’s generally a good idea to be very cautious.


The fourth chart shows that the VIX, or volatility index, is near a historic low. As the markets have rebounded over the last few years, investors have become complacent. They have priced nearly all risk out of the market, and it will only take one scary event to send volatility higher and investors fleeing the markets.

And finally, the fifth chart shows that the last two times the market climbed this high, a severe correction took place. The first two advances were over 100%, and then followed by a crash of roughly 50%. With the latest rally topping 100%, it is very likely that the market is setting up for another drastic correction.

With the evidence of a market crash growing every day, many investors have turned to a noted economist for a help.
Robert Wiedemer, who along with a team of economists correctly predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States during the “Great Recession,” recently recorded a controversial interview in which he predicts that the coming market crash will result in a 90% stock market drop, 50% unemployment, and 100% annual inflation starting this year.

Another agency is announcing the same thing. 1929 was nearly one century ago. However in the world in finance, the black Thursday is still a ghost, a shadow, a threat around the corner. Nobody had seen it coming except a small agency that had foreseen that everything was bound to collapse. His founder, Jerome Levy, had sold all his stocks on month before the crash, avoiding the bankruptcy. In 2007, this same agency had foreseen the sub-prime crisis.
When that same agency is foreseeing a new crisis in 2015, the world should be scared, but it's not the case. This agency, Jerome Levy Forecasting center, is not a big firm, but it's recognized in the whole world as particularly talented to foresee the worst events.
For 2015, they are announcing a tough recession in the US. Indeed, it's investing more and more in foreign markets, even though their growth is dramatically slowing. A paradox which can seem absurd for a country which has been severally struck by the 2008 crisis.
More prosaically, Europe is trying desperately not to drown because the governments of the member countries are not bold enough to do the necessary reforms.
For Levy, even if this goes against all the rhetoric we are hearing these days, this prognosis could come true.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2015, 09:59 AM by scarface »

March 26, 2015, 05:11 AM
Reply #1
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Today, there is a crash of the stocks markets. Remember I was advising some bearish positions. Personnaly I sold a bit too early some dax double short (dsd) last week, but I still have a significant losing position.
There is also a steep rise in oil prices today.
All these events, the new rise in unemployment in France, the inventory growth in the US, and escalating tensions in the Middle East (allegedly, Israel would prepare for a new intifada and an invasion of Islamists linked with Hamas in West Bank because of the hardline of reelected President Netanyahu, bode ill for the economic health in the months to come.
I recommend avoiding stocks, but if the markets keep crumbling, try to progressively reduce your bearish positions.
www.boursorama.com/bourse

April 20, 2015, 02:28 PM
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Today, there has been a rebound of the financial markets, but I think it's more technical than fundamental. There has been no important news today. If the European markets and the s&p500 futures are up tomorrow morning, there could be an opportunity to take some bearish positions once again.


Today, the trader Delamarche and the manager Marc Riez discussed the situation of Greece.
(video here: http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/video/olivier-delamarche-vs-marc-riez-12-une-sortie-de-la-grece-de-la-zone-euro-serait-tres-mauvaise-pour-l-europe-2004-504163.html)
For Delamarche, the country is still facing important deadlines in June, but while the position of Junker and Draghi is still dogmatic, the Greek government doesn't seem to have real solutions
(a good article here: http://news.forexlive.com/!/eus-junker-looking-lost-over-greece-talks-20150420)


April 20, 2015, 03:37 PM
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I'm going to talk about the BSE Sensex, the index of Bombay in India, maybe my opinion can interest those who come from Asia and it seems they are numerous on the forum.
Here is a chart.


Today there has been a sharp decline, the Sensex losing 555 points, as disappointing corporate earnings seems to be keeping investors nervous. The Sensex lost 1,160 points in the last four trading sessions as foreign funds turned to heavy selling in frontline stocks as more FPIs received notices from tax authorities on minimum alternative tax (MAT).

Personally I think that there could be a bubble in Asia. I read that Chinese people not able to read were opening accounts to buy stocks...There is euphoria, but valuations are becoming tight.
The graph of the Sensex is also showing some signs of bubble. So the correction could continue if corporate earnings are bad. I don't know if there is a bubble in India but while it was standing between 16000 and 18000 in 2012 and 2013, it's now standing at 27000...
Clearly, I think that the American markets are expensive. There are political problems in Europe, and a bubble in China.
I think caution is needed and I'm expecting a fall of several markets sometime during the second half of 2015.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/31/chinas-stock-market-sure-looks-like-a-bubble/
« Last Edit: April 20, 2015, 03:41 PM by scarface »

April 21, 2015, 05:08 AM
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I was right yesterday, the markets were up this morning, before losing their gain. The greek stock exchange, helef is even losing 3% now... But I missed the short for a few points, my purchase order was a few points above. The situation is weird, therefore I keep a wait and see approach.

April 23, 2015, 03:07 AM
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I was right about the markets. They are crumbling today, once again.
www.boursorama.com/bourse/
I still have significant bearish positions.
In this old video, the trader Delamarche was foreseeing a cac40 at 2000 points. And his prophecy could come true.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnL3_kj9EI
The situation in Greece, but also the war in Ukraine, and the invasion of the Islamists in Lybia bode ill for the future. You have to be prepared. Those who are "genocided" are the ones who are "genocidable". You are warned.

April 24, 2015, 02:32 AM
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On the financial markets, it seems the trend is still extremely bearish. The dax was gaining 80 points at the opening, topping 11800 and it turned red a few minutes ago.
http://fr.investing.com/indices/germany-30
For me the macroeconomic situation is so bad, that the markets still have a significant downward potential.

April 28, 2015, 09:44 AM
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Today, there is a crash on the financial markets. You were warned, but Im showing solidarity if you are still in the markets since I only have bearish positions. It's perhaps the beginning of a downward trend though. For me, we have never left the economic crisis begun in 2008 which was in fact a paradigm shift, with a slower growth.
www.boursorama.com/bourse/




the family of the forum:
« Last Edit: April 28, 2015, 09:48 AM by scarface »

May 05, 2015, 09:37 AM
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Today, there is a fall of the markets, once again. I did a very small capital gain, but Im quite happy to see it's going in the right sense since I still have losing positions.
www.boursorama.com/bourse
On the long term, Im very pessimistic for the economy anyway. The oil prices, both brent and wti were skyrocketting at noon. My previous forecast was good. The oil prices have gained 40% since the beginning of the year, and Im afraid they might go back to 100$ sooner than later.
Here is the latest video with Delamarche. He's explaining that the US gdp figures have been very disappointing. For him there is no doubt, without the significant stocks made by firms lately, the US are back in recession. Add to that 90 million Americans out of work when Obama is announcing a 5% unemployment rate, and you might end up with an economy worse than Greece.
http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/video/olivier-delamarche-vs-pascale-auclair-12-etats-unis-des-chiffres-du-pib-plus-daccevants-que-pracvus-0405-516469.html
« Last Edit: May 05, 2015, 09:48 AM by scarface »

May 07, 2015, 02:30 AM
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The stock markets keep crumbling...
http://fr.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50-chart
A bubble is always exploding but one never knows when. Is it a mere correction or the beginning of a crack?
The Shanghai stock exchange and the European markets have just lost 10%; and Yellen has just realized in her speech yesterday that valuations of markets were a bit high. For those who want to enter these markets, perhaps it's an opportunity, but personally, I'm expecting a crack in the days to come.




Btw, Im going to have a fiber connection. humbert, shadow or usman will be happy if they want to share a few files.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2015, 03:55 AM by scarface »