Author Topic: Financial news and stock markets.  (Read 41004 times)

May 11, 2015, 09:06 PM
Reply #10
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1692
  • Gender: Male
Today, I'm going to make a speech, giving you a few elements since I'm not the only one predicting an upcoming crash.
The upward revisions of European growth should not hide uncertainties. In case of crash, public authorities (governments and central banks) have already played their last cards. Economist Marc Touati predicted that The world economy is going to collapse.



For now, all is well! Everything's even better, according to some. And for good reason: according to the IMF, the ECB and many economic research institutes, the European Commission raised its growth forecasts for the euro-zone and for France in 2015. Beautiful!

But then, as we have often shown, consensus is very often wrong. That’s when everyone thinks the same thing that we should begin to worry. And that, especially when the forecasts of the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission are converging. It would be useful, for example, to recall that in 2007 and early 2008, these three institutions stressed that Euroland's economy was doing wonders and provided steady growth for 2008-2009, accompanied by high inflation. This is also partly because of this announced dynamism that the ECB raised its key interest rates in late 2007 and until July 2008. Better, in most of its reports since 2006, the European Commission and the IMF kept praising the economic success of Spain, Portugal and Greece!

Obviously, it would be difficult to do worse. That is what happened when in 2011 these institutions announced the strong upturn in growth in the euro area, the ECB even matching words with action by increasing twice its refi rate. If the past is dead and does not serve much of rubbing salt in a still open wound, these forecast errors nonetheless recall that the newest results of the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission must be taken very carefully.
The latest survey data, including purchasing managers’ indexes, the IFO institute, INSEE, but also the European Commission, are also clear: business outlook is already down. Consequently, After good growth through the first quarters, a marked slowdown or even a decline of the GDP is expected to occur in the euro area and in particular in France in the second quarter.

But that's not all, because if investors and the economic and financial world as a whole are accustomed to economic weakness in the euro area, they are frightened by the looming slowdown in the US and China. In this context, and as has already begun for ten days, financial markets could experience multiple storms, preceding a crash that would break out by next fall.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 09:10 PM by scarface »

May 12, 2015, 03:39 AM
Reply #11
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1692
  • Gender: Male
Usman, vasudev, could you please talk about windows in the right topics? When some messages are not in the right place, I remove them.

Following the message of yesterday, it could be now a matter of hours or days before a significant collapse and an economic crash.
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

« Last Edit: May 12, 2015, 03:43 AM by scarface »

May 14, 2015, 02:20 AM
Reply #12
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1692
  • Gender: Male
Today the European stocks exchanges are crumbling again, after a fall yesterday.
With the rise in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro/dollar, I think this movement is likely to continue.
My targets are bearish and very clear: 13000 for the dow jones, 8000 for the dax and 3500 for the cac40.
http://www.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

Don' forget that a few years ago Delamarche had a target at 2000 for the cac40.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnL3_kj9EI

May 14, 2015, 11:05 AM
Reply #13
Today the European stocks exchanges are crumbling again, after a fall yesterday.
With the rise in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro/dollar, I think this movement is likely to continue.
My targets are bearish and very clear: 13000 for the dow jones, 8000 for the dax and 3500 for the cac40.
http://www.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

Don' forget that a few years ago Delamarche had a target at 2000 for the cac40.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnL3_kj9EI

I have a lot of money put into stocks. Is the best thing just to put the money into a savings account instead?

May 14, 2015, 05:02 PM
Reply #14
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1692
  • Gender: Male
Quote
I have a lot of money put into stocks. Is the best thing just to put the money into a savings account instead?
It depends if you have gains or not. It also depends on the markets. A quick look at the SSE shows a 20% increase over one year.

Personally I think would be wise to sell, at least some of them if not all.
The uptrend in global equities has been mainly due to liquidity injections, but on the other side, I'm rather pessimistic on the world economy and the rise in oil prices and the rate increase could be a harbinger for a significant correction in the months to come.
Well today Ive been wrong since the markets closed higher, but the news about Greece or the slowdown of the US economy remains disquieting.

May 15, 2015, 03:32 PM
Reply #15
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 97
  • Gender: Male
The party started: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/15/greece-pays-public-sector-wages-economic-crisis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11608333/Greece-avoids-domestic-default-as-cash-scramble-gets-desperate.html

There is no consensus of the public opinion as to what reforms must be made. The political leadership of the country is struggling to find a politically viable solution, with no success so far. Cash outflow from banks rises. The elite is unwilling to leave the eurozone but on the same time too many people (3.5 million + their families) are unwilling to accept the imposed reforms. A chaotic scenario is quietly unfolding.

On a side note, Turkish helicopters and planes are increasingly violating the Greek airspace over the Aegean. This might be an additional source of trouble in case of a financial collapse; geopolitical destabilization of the entire area is very likely. Thus I believe there will be a serious turmoil in the short run, which might become important even on a global scale.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2015, 03:36 PM by harkaz »

June 04, 2015, 03:35 AM
Reply #16
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1692
  • Gender: Male
The stock markets are crumbling, as expected.
Go fishing and sell your stocks. Im still bearish, and confident in the outcome.
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse

June 04, 2015, 06:42 PM
Reply #17
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 97
  • Gender: Male
Getting ready to default... We have some T-bills to pay up as well on June 12th... Let's remember: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/24/greek-debts-what-does-it-owe-when-will-the-money-run-out
No one talks about it. Last time we took money from Greek embassies to stay afloat. Now what? It will take at least 2 weeks to reach a deal with creditors to pay up our older debts.

Today this happened:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/05/business/international/greece-debt-talks-ecb-imf-european-commission.html?_r=0

Unsurprisingly (at least for me), the Greek PM chose not to pay the IMF at this moment. We're running out of money here. I'm not so well informed to predict an exact default date, however.

In the meanwhile, most Greek people are confident that "a credit event will not happen, they won't let it happen". At the same time, the political leadership is obsessed with maintaining pensions and salaries of the official sector at a rather high level, and insists to stress the economy with high taxes. Everyone has become absurd here.

Staying in the eurosystem has not been viable for Greece since 2010. It was forced to stay so that other European banks could get rid of greek assets. Now that most of them are protected enough, they will not care about a default at all.

Don't expect any politician to save the greek economy. They are all corrupt and incapable of handling such a situation. Moreover, we Greeks have a tendency to fight against each other for any reason you can think, and in the case of default, it will be impossible to agree on what to do next.

PS @scarface Interested in your latest ISO.

June 05, 2015, 03:08 AM
Reply #18
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1692
  • Gender: Male
For Greece, let's hope there will be a miracle.

For the iso, lets wait for next tuesday.
As I said I also integrated every c++ redistributable packs. They are often needed. Maher might be interested for his iso.
I will also provide the forum with a vb script, which is activating microsoft update (instead of wu) automatically after a double click. Unfortunately, I found no way to integrate it.

June 09, 2015, 04:36 AM
Reply #19
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1692
  • Gender: Male
The economic collapse is close, sell everything now. I still have significant bearish positions, hopefully the dax will go to 7000 points, the cac 40 to 3000 and the dow jones to 12000, as expected, and as forecasted on the forum
http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/