Maher's Digital World

Financial news and stock markets.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #180 on: June 09, 2019, 08:26 PM »
Tonight, I'm going to hold a conference about the stock markets, with an excellent article of the columnist Mark Hulbert.

According to this specialist, Stock bulls are telling themselves a lot of lies about this market.



The U.S. stock market is overvalued now, period.

That would be worth keeping in mind at any time, of course, but especially now with the major market averages significantly off their late-April peaks. If current valuations were reasonable, then we could count on them to provide a safety net below this market.

Unfortunately we can’t. Yet many stock-market bulls contend that such a safety net does exist. Some are arguing that the stock market correction in late 2018 worked off many previous valuation excesses. One adviser Humbert monitors contended that “valuation metrics [in late April] for the S&P SPX, +1.05%  [were] much lower than where they were last year.”

And Mark Hulbert disagrees: Though valuations did improve between the market’s late-September and late-April peaks, the improvement was so slight as to barely improve equities’ outlook. Consider perhaps the most popular valuation measure: The price/earnings ratio. At the S&P 500’s late-September peak, the P/E ratio based on trailing 12 months as-reported earnings stood at 22.5. At its late-April peak, in contrast, it stood at 21.9 — less than 3% lower.

To understand how modest a decline that is, consider a simple econometric model that uses the P/E ratio to predict the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the subsequent 12 months. Hulbert constructed this model using data back to 1871 from Yale University finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller. The reduction in P/E from September to April translates into an increased forecasted return of just 6 basis points.

Good luck with that. The message of other valuation measures is similar. Consider five on which Hulbert also focused for this column: The cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE), made famous by Yale’s Shiller; the price-to-book and price-to-sales ratios; the dividend yield, and the Q-Ratio (calculated by dividing market value by the replacement cost of assets). The accompanying chart shows the percentage of past bull market peaks that had lower valuations than what prevailed at the market’s late-April high.



Notice that the market at that high was more overvalued than it was at anywhere between 86% and 100% of past bull market peaks (depending on which valuation measure used). The overwhelming message: Don’t look to valuations to cushion any decline.

This doesn’t mean that a bear market began at its late-April peak, of course. The stock market has been overvalued for a number of years now and, for the most part, has continued to produce impressive returns. What the valuation measures do mean is this: You’re on shaky ground if you have been giving the bull market the benefit of the doubt because of its allegedly reasonably valuation. You either need to find some other reason to be bullish, or to reduce your bullishness.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2019, 08:28 PM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #181 on: July 17, 2019, 07:08 AM »
Today I'm going to talk about the financial markets.
Given the level of the overall markets, I advise you to sell your stocks. That's what I did this morning: I sold 35% of my societe general stocks at 23.40€.
https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPGLE/

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #182 on: July 17, 2019, 03:00 PM »
Note that I've been right concerning Socgen...for today. The next days will say if selling above 23€ was the right thing to do. I'm expecting a correction on the markets pretty soon anyway. For Socgen, the first target could be 22.1€, 3% below the current level.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJH-cM3glhc

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #183 on: July 30, 2019, 08:12 AM »
The stock markets are crumbling today.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Note that the biggest drops are the banks.
In this context, I advise Ahmad and Maher to buy a few gold coins and some goats.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #184 on: July 31, 2019, 02:13 PM »
Powell is currently speaking.
The euro as well as the US markets are crumbling.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/devises/taux-de-change-euro-dollar-EUR-USD/

In this context, gold should go up, but it's not the case.

Live stream for the conference here: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/watch-fed-chair-jerome-powells-news-conference-live-following-first-rate-cut-in-a-decade.html

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #185 on: August 01, 2019, 06:27 AM »
Today, I advise you to sell société générale. That's what I did, at 23.35€ this morning. Maybe you will be able to come back at a lower price, the support being around 22,30€. A few days ago, I told you that the target was at 22.10, and yesterday socgen was at this price indeed. It was a perfect level to buy.
https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPGLE/

Note that the Euro keeps tumbling today, as Dollar enjoys broad-based rally against major currencies.
Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, further cuts are not certain.
U.S.-China trade talks ended with no progress.


shadow.97 or aa1234779 are probably wondering if they can stay bullish on gold. I think gold will keep gleaming indeed.

The precious metal is on track for its third straight month of gains
And the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates is bullish for gold even if we saw a correction yesterday.
Most analysts think it looks it’s poised to head even higher.
“The Fed cut interest rates for the first time since 2008 with the market at all-time highs here, trying to continue the upward trajectory in economic growth. Gold has been a very good beneficiary, ” Gordon said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “I see an opportunity to put another GLD trade on.”
Gordon was referring to SPDR Gold Shares, the largest exchange-traded fund in the market that invests in physical gold. In late June, he predicted the GLD would pull back to near its mid-2016 highs — but when it didn’t, it made him even more bullish.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 06:37 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #186 on: August 01, 2019, 12:54 PM »
Within minutes, the Dow Jones just tumbled over 300 points this evening. In this context, I still advise you to have defensive positions.
Gold is bullish again today, Newmont goldcorp, agnico and Barrick Gold are soaring.
I'm bullish on Gold stocks. For the other stocks, I'm waiting for a correction (and I still have some socgen stocks, but I sold 30% of the position at 23.35€, as I said earlier. Socgen closed at 23.50€).

The cac 40 futures are now showing a decline of 1.5% (shadow.97 and aa1234779 must be thinking that tomorrow will be red indeed).

« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 12:57 PM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #187 on: August 02, 2019, 02:14 AM »
Well, a small crash is taking place this morning on the European markets.
I advise you to buy a few stocks if you don't have any:
- For Socgen or Renault, it might be an interesting price (I bought some Rno this morning at 48.50 €, shortly after the opening of the markets)
- After Eramet's share price dropped by 33% in a month, it might be a good bet on the short term too.

https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/
« Last Edit: August 02, 2019, 02:21 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #188 on: August 02, 2019, 06:35 AM »
To understand what is happening:
European stock markets have fallen after the surprise decision by Donald Trump to impose new tariffs on a further $300bn of Chinese imports.

The FTSE 100 and the leading indexes in France and Germany all fell by more than 2% each.

The US president's decision came after the latest round of bilateral talks showed little sign of a breakthrough.

The 10% tariffs, due to take effect on 1 September, effectively tax all Chinese imports to the US.

The FTSE 100 dropped by 2% to 7,426.13 points. In Germany, the Dax index dropped by 2.57 % and the Cac 40 in France declined by 2.82%

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #189 on: August 02, 2019, 09:11 AM »
The cac 40 keeps crumbling: -3%.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Note that I'm remaining bullish on gold.
As far as silver is concerned, well I don't see any bullishness. I guess aa1234779 and usman would agree with me if I was speaking of "slugishness" instead.