Maher's Digital World

Financial news and stock markets.

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2013
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #300 on: March 19, 2020, 11:28 AM »
Note that the cac 40 is now up 1,9%. Tesla (+13%) and Mcdonald's (+8%) are soaring. However if you have some Tesla stocks, I recommend selling it.
I still suggest buying bank stocks. Socgen confrmed a dividend of 2.2€ today, it's a yield of 13%.
Note that Natixis is up 10% today, I was recommending it a few days ago. The price target is at 3€.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 11:31 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2013
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #301 on: March 20, 2020, 03:27 AM »
Yesterday, I was speaking of a target for the cac at 4100 points. Its done, sooner than forecasted, the cac 40 is up 5.85% and the dax 30 is up 6%. I sold some positions on Societe Generale bought yesterday. Ill come back if the markets is going down, since this rebound is a bit artificial. Im not sure this rebound will hold at the end of the day.
The problem is, I still find the US markets slightly expensive, despite the recent correction. The Dow Jones is set to open at 20700 points for the moment.

Natixis is up 10%, the next target is at 2.50e. For Societe Generale, with an EPS 2019 of 3e, I have a long term target at 30e.

Note that I cant write normally since some keys of my keyboard are not responding anymore, like the arrow keys and the numeric keys... Fortunately, they are not the most useful keys. Since the fnac is not selling msi computers anymore, Ill wait. This lenovo is excellent but a bit expensive. The processor seems very good though. I have the impression that the i7 9750f is better than the i7 9750h: https://www.fnac.com/PC-Portable-Lenovo-Legion-Y540-17IRH-17-3-Intel-Core-i7-16-Go-RAM-256-Go-SSD-1-To-SATA-Noir/a14086723/w-4
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 03:39 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2013
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #302 on: March 20, 2020, 06:56 AM »
Note that I advise you to sell this rebound. Macron announced that its probably the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak and further measures of confinement. Another coup de tabac is probable on the markets.

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2013
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #303 on: March 20, 2020, 12:23 PM »
Well, despite the fact that Wall Street is correcting right now (The DJ is currently down 1.1% at 19870 points), the European markets were not sold. The cac 40 finished at +5.01% and the Dax at +3.69%. The bank Natixis was up 31%! - I sold 3000 stocks.
In Europe only the Swiss index and the Stockholm OMX 30 were down (both down 1.8%).
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 12:26 PM by scarface »

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2013
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #304 on: March 20, 2020, 03:09 PM »
Well, it's another huge slap for the American markets with the Dow Jones losing 4.61%. Coca cola, Disney and 3M lost 10% (I was speaking of another "coup de tabac" - which means bad weather - to come, here it is).


Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2013
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #305 on: March 21, 2020, 06:49 PM »
Note that the Wall Street futures are pointing to another coup de tabac for Monday. The opening of the cac 40 and the dax 30 will be certainly in negative territory.


Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2013
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #306 on: March 22, 2020, 09:02 AM »
Today, I am going to talk about the situation in India.



A near empty Citiwalk Mall in New Delhi, India, on March 19


India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2013
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #307 on: March 22, 2020, 05:09 PM »
Note that the Dax 30 futures just opened and they are indicating that the opening of the German market could look like a butchery tomorrow. For those who do not know the Dax 30, there is where some firms like BMW, Siemens, Daimler or Bayer are listed. The Dow Jones futures are currently losing 820 points.
I will speak tomorrow at the opening of the markets to tell you what to do and explain the situation.

« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 05:16 PM by scarface »

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2013
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #308 on: March 23, 2020, 03:12 AM »
Note that the cac 40 is losing 4.32% and the Dax 30 4.95%. On the current level, I am buying some stocks Societe Generale. I am not buying Natixis but I still have a price target at 3 euros. On the dax, lufthansa, Siemens and BMW are amongst the biggest losers. In this context, I am still negative for airline companies.

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2013
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #309 on: March 23, 2020, 09:38 AM »
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said the coronavirus will inflict greater economic pain than they previously expected as they warned of a record plunge in the U.S. output in the second quarter and a deeper global recession.



Morgan Stanley’s U.S. economists led by Ellen Zentner told clients in a report on Sunday that they now see American gross domestic product falling 30.1% in April-June. That will drive up unemployment to average 12.8% over the period, they said.
At Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius’s team said in a report that they now expect a 24% drop in U.S. output in the next quarter.
The dire forecasts from two of Wall Street’s biggest banks reflects the sudden stop that the U.S. and European economies are witnessing following China’s slump at the start of the year.

Such predictions are raising fears of a depression, but Morgan Stanley economists said in a separate report that a sustained contraction should be avoided given the response of fiscal and monetary policy makers. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs anticipate a recovery beginning in the third quarter, although that is subject to risks.
“Economic activity has come to a near standstill in March,” the Morgan Stanley economists said. “As social distancing measures increase in a greater number of areas and as financial conditions tighten further, the negative effects on near-term GDP growth become that much greater.”
In a Bloomberg interview on Sunday, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in GDP.

« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 09:42 AM by scarface »