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Financial news and stock markets.

Started by scarface, February 26, 2015, 08:28 PM

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scarface

#210
Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the markets.

The cac40, the european markets and the s&p 500 futures collapsed suddenly as China slaps tariffs on $75B of U.S. goods.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/
This is the latest in the ongoing trade war Opens a New Window.  as the United States prepares to place tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods in September.

This "reinforces America's perception of China as a bad actor" said Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro immediately after the tariffs were announced.
Earlier in the morning, Hu Xijin, editor in chief at the Chinese state-run Global Times tweeted: “China has ammunition to fight back. The US side will feel the pain.”

With such news, gold passed 1500$ again. As for the Euro, it's at a one year low at 1.1065$.
As far as the s&p 500 is concerned, it is completely nosediving at 2906 points. I still have a target below 2800.
In this context, we stay bullish on gold.

Note that the new editions of windows 10 and 7 will be available by the end of the week.

scarface

Today, I'm going to talk about the economic situation.



As global economic picture dims, solutions seem out of reach.

As global leaders gather on two continents to take account of a darkening economic outlook, this is the picture they face:
Factories are slumping, many businesses are paralyzed, global growth is sputtering and the world’s two mightiest economies are in the grip of a dangerous trade war.

Barely a year after most of the world’s major countries were enjoying an unusual moment of shared prosperity, the global economy may be at risk of returning to the rut it tumbled into after the financial crisis of 2007-2009.

Worse, solutions seem far from obvious. Central banks can’t just slash interest rates. Rates are already ultra-low. And even if they did, the central banks would risk robbing themselves of the ammunition they would need later to fight a recession. High government debts make it politically problematic to cut taxes or pour money into new bridges, roads and other public works projects.

There’s a Group of Seven summit this weekend in Biarritz, France. If you want to test your optimism, take a second to study the family portrait. You will be looking at most of the generals who will lead the response to the next international economic crisis, should we have one in the next few months.

It’s hard to imagine the G7 reprising its heroics today. This year’s assembly includes too many saboteurs to be taken seriously as rescue team.

Germany is on the brink of recession. It has a huge trade surplus that implies it could be a bigger source of global demand, and it borrows for essentially nothing. Yet it still refuses to cut taxes or attempt any other form of fiscal stimulus out of fear of running a budget deficit.

Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, is bent on quitting the European Union on Oct. 31, come what may. Italy’s most powerful politician, Matteo Salvini, leader of the populist League party, chose this moment to trigger a political crisis, even though the International Monetary Fund reckons his country is teetering on the edge of its own downturn.

And of course, the G7 has done nothing to contain the biggest threat to the global economy, even though he has attended the meetings annually since being elected president of the United States in 2016. Stocks dropped (again) on Friday after Donald Trump tweeted that “we don’t need China” and the U.S. would be “better off without them.” He was commenting on the publication of the American imports that China will punish if the White House goes ahead with new duties on Chinese goods.

Trump’s trade wars have sucked the life out of the global economy, and America’s allies have proven powerless to do anything about it. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in Montreal this week that he would tell the G7 that, “we need to build a future where everyone can benefit from economic growth and where we invest to help the middle class,” a nice thought that will change nothing, since Angela Merkel, Johnson, Salvini and Trump all think their self-centred approaches to economic policy will achieve the same thing.

This is troubling because the politicians won’t be able to hide behind their central bankers when the next economic crisis hits.

In the aftermath of Lehman Brothers, the G7 finance ministers blew the battle horn, and the G20 implemented a co-ordinated round of fiscal stimulus. But it was the central banks that did the real work. They slashed benchmark interest rates across the board, and some of the biggest banks created trillions of dollars to buy bonds and other financial assets. They made mistakes, but if the mission was to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression, the effort was a clear success.

Central banks won’t be able to respond to the next downturn with the same degree of force. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate was around five per cent on the eve of the financial crisis; it’s 2.25 per cent now. Benchmark rates in Europe are near zero or even negative in some cases. The firepower just isn’t there.

So fiscal policy will need to play a greater role, and that’s a problem. Some of the bigger economies are carrying a lot of debt, which could tie the hands of a few important finance ministries.

The bigger issue is the state of politics in so many countries. Central banks are first up in a crisis because they can deploy so much faster. Fiscal policy must go through a design stage and approvals before the money is spent and begins rippling through the economy. Months would pass before the money hit the economy â€" under the best-case scenarios.

scarface

For Monday, the futures are indicating a big decline for the American markets. On Friday morning, when the s&p 500 was at 2930, I was talking about a target at 2800 points. We'll be near this level on Monday morning, probably 2815 or 2820 points, if nothing changes.


Below 2800 points on the s&p 500, another financial market slump is probable.


scarface

#213
As forecasted, the futures for tomorrow are very red.
The Dow sheds 270 points as Trump and Bolsonaro have a rough patch in Bayonne.




I gave a target for gold at 1580$ a few days ago and we are coming close this price. Gold is literally soaring tonight, +3.45% at 1549$ vs 1497$ on Friday.
I thing we can have a target at 70$ for Agnico eagle mines.

scarface

#214
Today, I'm going to give you another quick insight into financial news.

Wall Street slipped on Tuesday hurt by a fall in financial stocks, while revived worries about a U.S. recession overshadowed early optimism of a resolution to the prolonged trade dispute between the world's two largest economies.

U.S. stocks were up earlier in the session, building on gains from Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump sought to ease tensions by predicting another round of talks with Beijing. China's foreign ministry, however, reiterated on Tuesday that it had not received any recent telephone call from the United States on trade.

Investor sentiment soured after the inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve deepened further and the benchmark 10-year yields slipped, underscoring safe-haven demand and worries about a softening global economy.

In this context, Agnico Eagle soared, as forecasted.


Humbert, usmangujjar and little shadow.97 are certainly wondering if the markets are gonna slip further tomorrow.
Judging by the futures and the closing of Wall Street, The cac 40 and the Dax are likely to open negatively and lose 0,5%.
We'll watch Societe Generale. The overall trend is still negative and the resistance is situated at 23â,¬. I will buy if the stocks go back to 21,8â,¬.

Adocia lost 40% since the beginning of the week. And yet I don't think it's time to buy yet. It will probably go back to 11â,¬. On this level, maybe you can buy a first position.
The newsflow and the financial context are both bad indeed.
The first ruling in the battle between Adocia and Eli Lilly over a terminated long-acting insulin deal was a David versus Goliath victory for the small biotech, which was awarded $11.6m damages a year ago. Yesterday normal service was resumed, with Lilly prevailing on the broader allegation by Adocia that the US big pharma group had misappropriated information relating to the technology that had been the subject of the deal. The tie-up had actually been signed and terminated twice, as Lilly appeared uncertain whether the timelines were aggressive enough, but in the end the company decided to go with its own long-acting insulin, Ultra-rapid Lispro, rather than Adocia’s BioChaperone Lispro. Still unresolved is a separate claim from Lilly asserting patent rights to its long-acting product, but yesterday’s arbitration result seems to make this irrelevant. Adocia’s stock was off 27% today, meaning that it has lost 80% of its value since 2015, after Lilly re-signed the BioChaperone deal. Perhaps Adocia should follow advice given to all spurned lovers and make an effort to draw a line under the incident.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24xRFPGMImY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxUuU1jwMgM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnBeTPpr98g

scarface

Today, the cac 40 is down 1.2%.
I advise you to be careful. The  Süddeutsche Zeitung is warning of an imminent financial crisis. In this context, let's stay bullish on gold.
An article here in French: https://m.dw.com/fr/limminence-dune-crise-financi%C3%A8re-majeure/a-50187859

The cac 40: https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

scarface

A few months ago, I talked about uber here: http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg34227#msg34227
And I was pessimistic concerning the stock price. I hope you listened to my advice. It lost 20% over the last week, at 32.59$. I was talking about a halving of the stock price. The target is 22$ !

Yesterday the US market rebounded. The futures are indicating they will be up today too. On such levels, 2910 for the s&p 500, I'm bearish.

scarface

Tonight, new and reposted videos are available for the users of the forum.


Repost:
Hulot â€" break the internet (with English subtitles)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKLWW_j4a_E

Angel, the best dancer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyOasG6i-hA


New:
Michel Onfray on Muslims and Sharia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkOUBc4lR_w

Valuation Is More Important Than Politics or Interest Rates: And Most Stocks Are Overvalued Today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n55zTkpUUT0

scarface

#218
Tonight, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

The s&p 500 futures are currently indicating a stock market decline of 0.7% for tomorrow.
After the recent technical rebound, I think it's wise to keep the same strategy: be bearish on the market and bullish on gold.


I'm going to talk about the biotech company Pharnext. And the question is pretty simple: To buy or not to buy?
Shadow.97 or humbert have probably no clues about it.
To put it simply: the stock price fell by over 55% over the last week. Is it going to the cellar, or will there be a small technical rebound? In my opinion, it can be interesting to buy now, for a technical rebound of 5-10%, even if in the medium term, I think the stock will slide down further towards 4â,¬.
https://www.zonebourse.com/PHARNEXT-29750723/

Last week, Pharnext’s hopes of a quick approval for its Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease project PXT3003 have been dashed by the US FDA. The agency’s request for a second phase III study of the asset could have been foreseen after formulation issues halted the high-dose arm of the previous trial, Pleo-CMT; this was the only dose to show a significant benefit on the primary and secondary endpoints. Still, Pharnext’s stock was down as much as 42% on Friday, below its price when the company reported the first phase III data last October. Pharnext has not given details of the new trial’s design, but there must be worries about whether the group can complete it: Pleo-CMT took three years to yield data, and Pharnext had just â,¬32m ($35m) in cash at the end of March. PXT3003, a combination of baclofen, naltrexone and sorbitol, is in a long-term follow-up study set to yield data later this year. The company is also seeking a fast approval for PXT3003 in Europe, but it now looks likely that regulators there will also request another study. According to EvaluatePharma the only other prominent project in clinical development for Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease is Acceleron’s ACE-083, which is in phase II.

scarface

#219
-0.84% on the cac40.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Be very careful, the levels of the stock markets are still high, and the next crack may indeed be imminent.
Note that I had some Pharnext stocks. Like I said yesterday, I was expecting a rebound. It took place (+6.5% right now) and I sold my position. If the stock goes below 5â,¬, I'll come back later.
https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPALPHA/

In this context gold is up 1.6% at 1545$.