Maher's Digital World


Offline scarface

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Re: Documentaries
« Reply #50 on: December 31, 2017, 12:36 AM »
The world according to Subway.

Subway, these are 44,000 burger shops in the world. Number 1 in fast food, before McDonald's! Multimillionaire, Fred de Luca, the American founder of the brand, based its success on a marketing promise: Subway sandwiches, including raw vegetables, would be very low calorie diets. In 2014, US First Lady Michelle Obama joined Subway to promote her campaign against obesity.
But 50 years after its creation, the brand is going through a bad patch: in the United States, a university study has shown that Subway customers composed sandwiches as caloric as a full menu at McDonald's! Another concern: the brand would overexploit its franchisees. Finally, Subway set up a system of tax optimization allowing it to pay very little tax, especially in France.

It’s difficult to make a fortune by buttering Subway sandwiches. The Capital monthly magazine did the math. Of the approximately 200 franchisees who filed their accounts in the last two years, 35% are losing money. And many are earning only a few thousand euros. "Among the competitors of the fast food restaurant, when one counts 5 to 7% of losing units, it is the end of the world", analyzes Bernard Boutboul, director of Gira Conseil. A third of restaurants in the red? "Maybe, I did not look at the numbers," says Marc Kreder, Europe director of Subway.
This will be his last word. The chain has beautiful shops open on all corners of the street, but it does not like to communicate.
And yet, This does not prevent them from opening many Franchise-owned restaurants. And, surprise, without doing market research. Because they don't care if the Business is profitable or not, unlike McDonald's. Subway wants to open as many franchises as possible because they earn royalties paid by the franchisees.

In its franchise agreement, Subway clearly announces the color: "We do not know what types of locations offer the best chance of success." A franchisee who opened in 2011 in an isolated city of the South of France testifies to have "simply counted the number of passersby for a day". So his sandwich shop, even though it’s open seven days a week, is losing money. We understand better why 45% of restaurants have changed hands between 2008 and 2010.

Be careful however: franchisees do not have any exclusivity on their area. This is how many historic members of the network, whose business was profitable (it happens of course), have seen their activity plunge right from the opening of a rival nearby. "I have no way to oppose it," says one of them. Without finding an ear to talk to. In case of problems, Subway invites its members to re-read the manual of the good franchisee.

Rather discreet in the accompaniment of his flock, Subway claims no less than 12.5% royalties, levied each week. Much more than the use in the sector: Golden brioche is 5%, Paul 6%, Bread apple 7%. One-third of this fee is used to fund advertising. That's 7 million euros last year, compared to the 208 million invested by McDo. Obviously, it's hard to be heard.

From there to publicly express their discontent, the Franchisees don't dare to talk. "The Subway franchise contract is designed to stifle any potential litigation," sighs the lawyer of one of these rebels who plans to fight. Any dispute must indeed be settled in English ... by a referee from New York. However, the franchise agreement is governed by the law of the Netherlands, where the European headquarters of Subway is located. And the company is registered in avoid taxes.

My advice:
If you want to eat junk food, You have the choice between Mcdo or Subway.
You are unemployed? You want to lose money and enrich the De Luca family? Open up a Subway Franchise-owened restaurant (but in France you won’t be able a get a loan from a bank if you say you want to open a Subway, it’s too risky and they know it).
« Last Edit: April 07, 2019, 07:46 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Documentaries
« Reply #51 on: January 07, 2018, 01:35 PM »
Tonight, I'm going to paste here an interesting article reselased by Nafeez Ahmed on 6 January 2018. But first off, some of you, like aa1234779, or usman, must be wondering who Nafeez is.

Nafeez Ahmed is a British author and investigative journalist who released a documentary in 2011 titled The crisis of civilization.
The majority of the movie features Mr. Ahmed addressing the viewer, with each point illustrated by a combination of news footage, darkly humorous animation, and clips ranging from B movies to public service announcements.
While the message of the film may be too controversial for some, the thoughtful and seemingly unbiased nature of the reporting should also win over its fair share of devotees.

Here is the documentary:

In his latest article, he's talking about the end of oil. And unlike most analysts, he explains that peak oil is more relevant than ever.

Brace for the oil, food and financial crash of 2018
80% of the world’s oil has peaked, and the resulting oil crunch will flatten the economy

By Nafeed Ahmed

Last September, a few outlets were reporting the counterintuitive findings of a new HSBC research report on global oil supply. Unfortunately, the true implications of the HSBC report were largely misunderstood.

The HSBC research note — prepared for clients of the global bank — found that contrary to concerns about too much oil supply and insufficient demand, the situation was opposite: global oil supply will in coming years be insufficient to sustain rising demand.

Here is the HSBC report:

Yet the full, striking import of the report, concerning the world’s permanent entry into a new age of global oil decline, was never really explained. The report didn’t just go against the grain that the most urgent concern is ‘peak demand’: it vindicated what is routinely lambasted by oil majors as a myth: peak oil — the concurrent peak and decline of global oil production.

Headquarted in London, UK, HSBC is the world’s sixth largest bank, holding assets of $2.67 trillion. So when they produce a research report for their clients, it would be wise to pay attention, and see what we can learn.

Among the report’s most shocking findings is that “81% of the world’s total liquids production is already in decline.”

Between 2016 and 2020, non-OPEC production will be flat due to declines in conventional oil production, even though OPEC will continue to increase production modestly. This means that by 2017, deliverable spare capacity could be as little as 1% of global oil demand.

This heightens the risk of a major global oil supply shock around 2018 which could “significantly affect oil prices.”

The report flatly asserts that peak demand (the idea that demand will stop growing leaving the world awash in too much supply), while certainly a relevant issue due to climate change agreements and disruptive trends in alternative technologies, is not the most imminent challenge:
“Even in a world of slower oil demand growth, we think the biggest long-term challenge is to offset declines in production from mature fields. The scale of this issue is such that in our view rather there could well be a global supply squeeze some time before we are realistically looking at global demand peaking.”

Under the current supply glut driven by rising unconventional production, falling oil prices have damaged industry profitability and led to dramatic cut backs in new investments in production. This, HSBC says, will exacerbate the likelihood of a global oil supply crunch from 2018 onwards.

Four Saudi Arabias, anyone?
The HSBC report examines two main datasets from the International Energy Agency and the University of Uppsala’s Global Energy Systems Programme in Sweden.

The latter, it should be noted, has consistently advocated a global peak oil scenario for many years — the HSBC report confirms the accuracy of this scenario, and shows that the IEA’s data supports it.

The rate and nature of new oil discoveries has declined dramatically over the last few decades, reaching almost negligible levels on a global scale, the report finds. Compare this to the report’s warning that just to keep production flat against increasing decline rates, the world will need to add four Saudi Arabia’s worth of production by 2040. North American production, despite remaining the most promising in terms of potential, will simply not be able to fill this gap.

Business Insider, the Telegraph and other outlets which covered the report last year acknowledged the supply gap, but failed to properly clarify that HSBC’s devastating findings basically forecast the longterm scarcity of cheap oil due to global peak oil, from 2018 to 2040.

The report revises the way it approaches the concept of peak oil — rather than forecasting it as a single global event, the report uses a disaggregated approach focusing on specific regions and producers. Under this analysis, 81% of the world’s oil supply has peaked in production and so now “is post-peak”.

Using a more restrictive definition puts the quantity of global oil that has peaked at 64%. But either way, well over half the world’s global oil supply consists of mature and declining fields whose production is inexorably and irreversibly decreasing:
“If we assumed a decline rate of 5%pa [per year] on global post-peak supply of 74mbd — which is by no means aggressive in our view — it would imply a fall in post-peak supply of c.38mbd by 2030 and c.52mbd out to 2040. In other words, the world would need to find over four times the size of Saudi Arabia just to keep supply flat, before demand growth is taken into account.”

What’s worse is that when demand growth is taken into account — and the report notes that even the most conservative projections forecast a rise in global oil demand by 2040 of more than 8mbd above that of 2015 — then even more oil would be needed to fill the coming supply gap.

But with new discoveries at an all time low and continuing to diminish, the implication is that oil can simply never fill this gap.
Technological innovation exacerbates the problem

Much trumpeted improvements in drilling rates and efficiency will not make things better, because they will only accelerate production in the short term while, therefore, more rapidly depleting existing reserves. In this case, the report concludes:

    “… the decline-delaying techniques are only masking what could be significantly higher decline rates in the future.”

This does not mean that peak demand should be dismissed as a serious concern. As Michael Bradshaw, Professor of Global Energy at Warwick University’s Sloan Business School, told me for my previous VICE article, any return to higher oil prices will have major economic consequences.

The HSBC report takes the position that prices will have to rise eventually, because the drop in investment due to declining profitability amidst the current glut will make a supply squeeze inevitable. Better and more efficient drilling creates a glut now: but it also accelerates depletion, meaning that the lower prices and oil glut today is a precursor of tomorrow’s higher prices and supply squeeze.

There’s another possibility, which could mean that prices don’t rise as HSBC forecasts. In this scenario, the economy remains too weak to afford an oil price hike. Demand for oil stays low because economic activity remains tepid, while consumers and investors continue to seek out alternative energy sources to fossil fuels. In that case, the very inertia of a weakening economy would pre-empt the HSBC scenario, and the industry would continue to slowly crush itself out of the market due to declining profitability.
Price spikes, economic recession

But what if the HSBC supply forecast is correct?

Firstly, oil price spikes would have an immediate recessionary effect on the global economy, by amplifying inflation and leading to higher costs for social activity at all levels, driven by the higher underlying energy costs.

Secondly, even as spikes may temporarily return some oil companies to potential profitability, such higher oil prices will drive consumer incentives to transition to cheaper renewable energy technologies like solar and wind, which are already becoming cost-competitive with fossil fuels.

That means a global oil squeeze could end up having a dramatic impact on continued demand for oil, as twin crises of ‘peak oil’ and ‘peak demand’ end up intensifying and interacting in unfamiliar ways.

The demise of fossil fuels

The HSBC report’s specific forecasts of global oil supply and demand, which may or may not turn out to be accurate, are part of a wider story of global net energy decline.

A new scientific research paper authored by a team of European government scientists, published on Cornell University’s Arxiv website in October 2016, warns that the global economy has entered a new era of slow and declining growth. This is because the value of energy that can be produced from the world’s fossil fuel resource base is declining inexorably.

The paper – currently under review with an academic journal – was authored by Francesco Meneguzzo, Rosaria Ciriminna, Lorenzo Albanese, Mario Pagliaro, who collectively conduct research on climate change, energy, physics and materials science at the Italian National Research Council (CNR) — Italy’s premier government agency for scientific research.

According to HSBC, oil prices are likely to rise and stabilise for some time around the $75 per barrel mark due to the longer term decline in production relative to persistent demand. But the Italian scientists find that this is still too high to avoid destabilising recessionary effects on the economy.

The Italian study offers a new model combining “the competing dynamics of population and economic growth with oil supply and price,” with a view to evaluate the near-term consequences for global economic growth.

Data from the past 40 years shows that during economic recessions, the oil price tops $60 per barrel, but during economic growth remains below $40 a barrel. This means that prices above $60 will inevitably induce recession.

Therefore, the scientists conclude that to avoid recession, “the oil price should not exceed a threshold located somewhat between $40/b [per barrel] and $50/b, or possibly even lower.”

More broadly, the scientists show that there is a direct correlation between global population growth, economic growth and total energy consumption. As the latter has steadily increased, it has literally fueled the growth of global wealth.

But even so, the paper finds that the world is experiencing:

    “… declining average EROIs [Energy Return on Investment] for all fossil fuels; with the EROI of oil having likely halved in the short course of the first 15 years of the 21st century.”

Crisis convergence

Seen in this broader scientific context, the HSBC global oil supply report provides quite stunning confirmation that for the most part, global oil production is already in post-peak. That much is incontrovertible, and derived from industry-validated data.

HSBC believes that after 2018, this is going to manifest in not simply a global supply shock, but a world in which cheap, high quality fossil fuels is increasingly hard to find.

We don’t need to accept this forecast dogmatically — the post-peak oil market, which HSBC confirms now exists, may function differently than what anyone can easily forecast.

But if HSBC’s forecast is accurate, here’s what it might mean. One possible scenario is that by 2018 or shortly thereafter, the world will face a similar convergence of global crises that occurred a decade earlier.

In or shortly after 2018, economic and energy crisis convergence would drive global food prices up, re-generating the contours of the triple crunch we saw ravage the world from 2008 to 2011, the debilitating impacts of which we have yet to recover from.

2018 is likely to be crunch year for another reason. 1 January 2018 is the date when a host of new regulations are set to come in force, which will “constrain lending ability and prompt banks to only advance money to the best borrowers, which could accelerate bankruptcies worldwide,” according to Bloomberg. Other rules to come in play will require banks to stop using their own international risk assessment measures for derivatives trading.

Ironically, the introduction of similar well-intentioned regulation in January 2008 (through Basel II) laid the groundwork to rupture the global financial architecture, making it vulnerable to that year’s banking collapse.

In fact, two years earlier in July 2006, Dr David Martin, an expert on global finance, presciently forecast that Basel II would interact with the debt bubble to convert a collapse of the housing bubble into a global financial conflagaration.

Just a month after that prescient warning, I was told by a former senior Pentagon official with wide-ranging high-level access to the US military, intelligence and financial establishment that a global banking collapse was imminent, and would likely occur in 2008.

My source insisted that the event was bound up with the peak of global conventional oil production about two years earlier (which according to the UK’s former chief government scientist Sir David King did indeed occur around 2005, even though unconventional oil and gas production has offset the conventional decline so far).

Having first outlined my warning of a 2008 global banking collapse in August 2006, I re-articulated the warning in November 2007, citing Dr. Martin’s forecast and my own wider systems analysis at a lecture at Imperial College, London. In that lecture, I specifically predicted that a housing-triggered banking crisis would be sparked in the context of the new era of expensive fossil fuels.

I called it then, and I’m calling it now.

Some time after January 2018, we are seeing the probability of a new crisis convergence in global energy, economic and food systems, similar to what occurred in 2008.

In the end, I might be wrong. The crash might not happen in exactly 2018. It might happen later. Or it might be triggered by something else, something unexpected, that the model outlined here doesn’t capture.

The point of a forecast is not to be right — but to imagine a potential scenario based on the data available that one can reasonably prepare for; and to adjust the model accordingly in light of new data.

Offline scarface

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Re: Documentaries
« Reply #52 on: January 18, 2018, 07:01 PM »
Tonight, a documentary, titled the price of the American dream, is available on the forum (it's in English).

Offline scarface

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Re: Documentaries
« Reply #53 on: February 05, 2018, 12:06 PM »
Tonight, I'm going to give you a quick insight of what's happening in Syria by talking about the new banknote.

Well, if some of you are looking at the pictures, you must be thinking it's the Syrian Bitcoin. Or the Assadcoin.

Actually, Bashar al-Assad appears on Syrian banknotes for the first time ever.

Syria's Central Bank announced this weekend that it was introducing a new banknote — a 2,000-pound bill worth roughly $4 — because of “wear and tear” on the currency already in circulation. Noted in state media's coverage of the new note, however, is an important design detail: For the first time, a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad is being featured on Syrian money.

Assad has been president of Syria since 2000, when he succeeded his father, Hafez al-Assad. Trained as an ophthalmologist, Bashar al-Assad was initially seen as a potential reformer. However, he has since been accused of human rights violations. Since 2011, Syria has been locked in a brutal and intractable conflict.

In the past, Syria's banknotes have tended to feature Hafez al-Assad or historical figures or sites. The portraits on the banknotes have attracted considerable attention in the past, given their political implications. In 2015, pro-government social media accounts urged a boycott of a new 1,000-pound bill after an image of Hafez al-Assad was removed from it.

The introduction of the new 2,000-pound bill might seem to suggest economic weakness. The note is the highest denomination yet for the Syrian pound, a recognition that since the conflict in the country began, the value of the Syrian currency has dropped from about 47 pounds to the dollar in 2011 to more than 500 pounds to the dollar this year. Many Syrians quickly found that their hard-earned savings were being rendered worthless, with the threat that hyperinflation could soon make things even worse.

Yet counterintuitively, the government portrayed the new bill as a sign of stabilization. According to the official Syrian Arab News Agency, the Central Bank governor, Duraid Dergham, told reporters on Sunday that the plan for the 2,000-pound bill had actually been approved years ago but implemented only recently after exchange-rate fluctuations slowed down. Dergham also said that there was “no need to panic” that the bill could worsen the inflation.

Re: Documentaries
« Reply #54 on: February 25, 2018, 02:41 PM »
This is a good documentary on 9/11 which I've seen more than ten years ago.. Yet this final cut I only watched days ago..

Loose Change - Final Cut 2007 (Full Length)

I can't claim that everything on the film is true, nor is it the whole truth..
Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon him) said “Surah (chapter of) Hud and its sisters turned my hair gray"

Hud (11)

Offline scarface

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Re: Documentaries
« Reply #55 on: February 25, 2018, 02:50 PM »
This is a good documentary on 9/11 which I've seen more than ten years ago.. Yet this final cut I only watched days ago..

Loose Change - Final Cut 2007 (Full Length)

I can't claim that everything on the film is true, nor is it the whole truth..

Thanks, I'm going to watch it.

Offline scarface

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Re: Documentaries
« Reply #56 on: February 25, 2018, 04:19 PM »
If Bin Laden is not behind it, then who?
Bin Laden wanted to wage Jihad against the Unites States:

But it's interesting to note that mere planes were probably not enough for the towers to collapse.

Re: Documentaries
« Reply #57 on: February 25, 2018, 04:41 PM »
If Bin Laden is not behind it, then who?
Bin Laden wanted to wage Jihad against the Unites States:

But it's interesting to note that mere planes were probably not enough for the towers to collapse.

It's true, Bin Laden is behind the attacks.. That is a well established fact.
Yet I have no doubt that some people saw it coming and saw opportunity in the events to start wars afterwards that are justified in the eyes of the masses.
American foreign policy was adjusting from Fukuyama's End of History (1992) to Huntington's Clash of Civilization and Remaking World Order (1996). Large-scale attacks such as those of 9/11 serve that purpose greatly.
We are all just subjects in a world-wide decades long psychological operation(s).

Which brings me to another film worth checking out.

Psywar - Full Documentary

Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon him) said “Surah (chapter of) Hud and its sisters turned my hair gray"

Hud (11)

Offline humbert

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Re: Documentaries
« Reply #58 on: February 25, 2018, 09:58 PM »
I believe there's a big coverup regarding all this 9/11 thing the US government's propaganda machine keeps saying. Consider this:

1) As you correctly said, no building has ever been brought down by a fire. Not only that, but the building came down exactly as happens during a controlled implosion. Add to this the fact that building 7 came down exactly the same way despite the fact that it was never hit by a plane.

2) We're being told the Pentagon was hit by a gasoline-filled plane. Despite this there is no fire, no jet engines and no bodies from the crew and passengers.

3) The remains of the plane that crashed before hitting anything disappeared almost immediately. The propaganda machine kept telling us that some "heroes" overwhelmed the hijackers and force the plane down.

As Hitler used to say, the bigger the lie the more the people will believe it.

Offline scarface

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Re: Documentaries
« Reply #59 on: March 03, 2018, 08:38 PM »

Egypt could become the most populated country in the world, before China and India.
This video explains why Egypt’s growing population places strain on resources:

A documentary that Vasudev could like...
If you sense that the future looks bleak, that there is little chance that this whole mess will end in joy and good humor, that there is a tiny chance that we will escape a systemic collapse of the thermo-industrial civilization, you are not far from reality. In this video, based on the available data, we try to explain why we think the situation is inextricable and that a systemic collapse is now inevitable.

According to a report of HSBC, the 6th bank of the world, we could have an oil crisis as soon as 2018.

A documentary in French, La crise permanente, by Marc Chesney

Miscellaneous videos:
30 years ago, Terminator found a job in Los Angeles (he had to help Sarah Connor). Since then, he was unemployed, like  100 million Americans, despite the optimism of Powell concerning the American economy (as forecasted in the financial topic, the stock exchange is dropping, and it’s likely to continue).
50% of them are eating thanks to food stamps and the others are probably not eating at all. Terminator was one of those American, and if has been through a rough patch, it seems it’s over: he found a new Palestine. You can watch this video to understand what I’m talking about:

Many users of the forum gathered in Maher’s den to have a party. After a good whiskey and with some good music, they want to thank Maher, scarface and the users for the content uploaded on the forum.

How to turn 300 000$ into 5 cents:

Is it the type of job you are looking for?


Fous ta cagoule:


E.T club mix: