@humbert
The Greek crisis started, as you know, in 2010, when George Papandreou's government decided to sign a loan agreement with EU member states, ECB and the IMF. Greece was unable to honor its debt commitments. Papandreou was forced to sign to protect the eurosystem (including Greek banks of course) from failure. He decided to turn the great primary deficit of about 13% GDP to a primary surplus. He said that Greece would be back in the markets by 2012. Many Greeks regarded -and still regard- Papandreou as a traitor, because he allegedly increased the deficit on purpose, in coordination with EUROSTAT and he bailed out the insolvent Greek banks, giving the elite enough time to withdraw their money abroad, while the Greek economy was collapsing. When Papandreou decided to organise a referendum about a greek exit from the Eurozone, his government was overthrown.
Then Loukas Papadhmos organised the PSI, and the EFSF took full control of the Greek debt. Grexit speculation was extremely high in summer 2012, when Antonis Samaras was elected as PM. He tried to stabilize the economy and until 2014 it seemed that he controlled the situation. He gradually reduced pensions and wages but he was unwilling to reform the official sector. He created a "false surplus" by imposing high taxes. He is particularly hated for his ENFIA law (tax on real state) which made real estate value drop by 40%. He failed to reach a deal with creditors and he was overthrown by SYRIZA. SYRIZA came to power as a semi-communist, anti-austerity party which promised increases in official sector wages and decreasing unemployment by employing more people in the official sector. They also promised to tear the memorandum of understanding and restore everything in '2010 state' (All of these could be done in the Eurosystem of course, they promised, because creditors "couldn't reject their proposals").
In these 5 years GDP has fallen by more than 25% and 130 billion € of deposits flew away from Greek banks. No structural reforms have been made and corruption remains huge. Unemployment is rather high (over 25%), but young people can *still* stay afloat with the pensions and salaries of their parents and grandparents. More and more Greek companies are closed due to high debts.
The pro-EU/anti-EU percentage ratio is about 65/35 at this monent. If there is a deal between creditors and Greece for an extension of the current program until November (unlikely) I estimate this ratio will almost become 50/50 by then, and civil unrest will be likely enough. It is imperative to reduce the tax load and start real reforms, now or never. OSI is required.
And this helps me explain why I believe Greece will become Ukraine II. The former Ukrainian president was overthrown by CIA-supported "protestors" who revolted when he decided to abandon the country's EU integration path. The Ukrainian citizens who were against the entry to EU revolted as well against the protestors. A civil war started. Putin decided to annex Crimea to protect Russia's military interests in the Black Sea. NATO and EU found this as an excuse to start a new "Cold war era".
Similarily, Greece is a NATO and EU member with great financial and geopolitical problems. When a leftist government decides to demand a 'status quo' change in Europe and many Greek people (for various reasons) are thinking of Grexit as an opportunity, Putin decides to support the government. This could also cause a civil unrest/war situation. I think a better term would be RUkraine - Reverse Ukraine, because the Ukrainian crisis was triggered when the country tried to enter the EU, while Greek crisis will be triggered when it tries to exit the EU.
