Financial news and stock markets.

[humbert]

Today, the European stock markets are crumbling on fears that Marine le Pen could be elected in France.

People always imagine the worst scenario. Even it Marine gets elected, keep in mind she doesn't have the backing of most of the French people. At last count only 21.5% supported her, meaning that 79.5% don't. Only a dictator can get anything done with that kind of support.

[scarface]

A few months ago, I told you to avoid snap stocks, since I think it's an empty shell with virtually no activities. Today I feel vindicated.
Indeed, When Snap listed its shares on the New York Stock Exchange in March, the floor of the exchange was festooned in the company’s signature yellow. Family members of Snap executives posed for photographs; some wore the company’s video-recording Spectacles. And as Snap’s two 20-something founders rang the opening bell, the crowd â€" including one of the founder’s fathers and a supermodel fiancée â€" applauded.

Yet just two months into its life as a public company, Snap’s celebration may already be ending.

On Wednesday, Snap, the parent of the messaging app Snapchat, reported earnings that missed Wall Street expectations in almost every regard. Not only did Snap record a $2.2 billion loss for the first quarter, its revenue was lighter than expected, and the company disclosed that its user growth was decelerating sharply. Investors punished the company, sending its stock down more than 25 percent in after-hours trading.

[scarface]

Today the stock markets are declining on speculation that Mario Draghi’s ECB is poised to reduce unprecedented monetary stimulus. That sent yields higher, damping the allure of the non-interest-bearing metal.
In this environment, I'm convinced that markets are due for a correction. Politics, global instability, Greek Crisis, overvalued U.S. stock markets, debt limit, and declining GDP growth are several other warning signs.


But let's talk about Greece. After all, this is perhaps the country where we will go, if there is no more cheap oil. Not because it's economically healthy, otherwise we would go to West Bank, Palestine, which has a growth rate of 4% but because of it's geographic situation and also because several users of the forum could host us. What's more, Palestine, like Israel, is probably overwhelmed with applications for asylum. With a vip pass, like a Syrian or Eritrean passport, you can apply for asylum. But if you come from Sweden, Egypt, France, India, or Pakistan, you won't get anything. At least it would be possible for me to live in Greece, since I'm a European citizen.



So let's talk about the situation in Greece with a conference, titled "From the economic crisis to the demographic crisis".

The recession that has hit the country is accompanied by an unprecedented demographic crisis: the population is aging and declining, women have few children, and young people are leaving the country.

In Greece, according to Médecins du Monde, nearly one in four women born in the 1970s has no children. And the number of births has declined steadily since the start of the crisis according to Elstat, the Greek Statistics Authority, from 114 766 in 2010 to 94 134 in 2013 and 91 847 In 2015.

The Greek population is decreasing. It has fallen from 11.1 million in 2011 to 10.8 million in 2016. "The net balance between births and deaths has been negative since 2011 and this trend will accentuate: the number of deaths will increase because the generations who were born after the 1950s, in the years of the Greek baby boom, are now over 65 years old. Births will not increase as women of childbearing age do not make up a large part of the population and the fertility rate remains low, "said Vironas Kotsamanis, a professor of demography at the University of Thessaloniki.

Before the crisis, the Greek fertility rate was already standing at 1.5, and by 2012 it has dropped to 1.3 children per woman, while it must be at least two children per woman to ensure the renewal of generations. At the Rea private maternity clinic, Antonia Charitou, director of the Neonatal Unit, observes that "women have only one child now and usually quite late, after 30".

Ambient pessimism
Low wages, unemployment which affects 27% of women against 20% of men, ambient pessimism (according to the 2015 Eurobarometer, 70% of Greeks believe that the economic situation will deteriorate, compared with 46% across the Union European) have certainly influenced fertility at a time when it was beginning to increase again.

"The absence of family policy and the cuts in social spending demanded by the country's creditors [European Central Bank, European Union, International Monetary Fund] have also not encouraged women to have fewer children," says Vironas Kotsamanis. The allowances for a third child are ridiculous in Greece, around 50 euros per month. "

But Antonia Charitou also cites another reason for this low birth rate: "Young women who are now 30 years old and older have grown up in years of prosperity in Greece, when children were spoilt, attended private language classes, Extra-curricular activities. They want to offer their children the same way of life but it is not possible with the crisis ... "

The Scourge of Exodus
And there is an extra scourge for the Greek society: the exodus of an entire generation under the age of 40, of reproductive age. According to a survey published in July 2016 by Endeavor Greece, a network of young entrepreneurs, 350,000 Greeks reportedly expatriated between 2008 and 2016.

The demographic crisis does not bode well for the economy of the already exhausted country. "In about ten years, Greece will lose a large number of assets, notes, bitter, Vironas Kotsamanis. The population who can consume is decreasing, pension funds and the health care system will explode because people aged 85 and over are growing faster than other groups. It's difficult to be optimistic for the future of Greece in these conditions! "

[scarface]

Last Friday evening, I read that the US Senate has passed the tax reform bill, and I think things will go awry in the US.
First off, Wall Street climbed and I was thinking that the debt problem was over: Donald Tramp decided to give all his fortune, out of generosity, to tackle indebtedness. Of course, this is not the case.

A French specialist, who worked at the Fed a few years ago, wrote an article titled "open bar on the Titanic". Here is a little excerpt:
"If I had been asked to come up with a plan that would maximize the budget deficit while generating as little economic benefit as possible, I would have took the one the US Senate has just adopted.
This tax reform massively lowers taxes on the wealthiest businesses and households, and this is paid by the vast majority of households. They are just enjoying a few temporary tax cuts to beautify the packaging.

A deficit without growth stimulus.
Such a deficit will do nothing for growth. A great deal of research has shown that fiscal stimulus can work, but according to very specific criteria. The best effect is achieved by targeted measures on households that will spend the aid received rather than saving it, or on investments supporting economic activity such as infrastructure spending. The Senate plan goes against these revenues.
The wealthiest households will not increase their spending. As for American companies, their profits are doing well. They do not face any financial constraints that would hamper their investments."

The article is here: https://blogs.letemps.ch/cedric-tille/2017/12/03/politique-fiscale-de-trump-open-bar-sur-le-titanic/

Oddly enough, a few months before the 1929 stock market crash, the same fiscal policies were applied by Andrew Melon, and at that time we could see the same complacency toward the stock market.






Mr Baboon

[scarface]

Tonight, I’m going to hold an exceptional conference about Bitcoin.


Gold will replace the "bitcoin" and it's not the "bitcoin" that will replace gold.



There is no point in talking for hours about the brilliant "blockchain" technique to justify the value of "bitcoin". This technique is the tree that hides the forest. A "bitcoin" is not based on anything and is worthless if it is not the price at which fools want to buy it in a mega-system Ponzi which is nothing but a repetition in the XXI century of the famous speculative crisis of tulip bulbs in Holland in the 17th century. Just as it is impossible to prevent people, if they wish, from throwing themselves from the top of the Eiffel Tower, it is not possible to prevent people from ruining themselves! The only real value of "bitcoin" is the market value of the blockchain technology patent.

This technology, which has freed itself from state intervention, has as guarantor only an algorithm and relies on the only value given by the mass of buyers of "bitcoin". His creator is unknown and he threw the key at the bottom of the well after the design of the "blockchain". The ones who are able to create "bitcoins" are only those who have a computing capacity with computer farms, with the technical capacity to issue them.

Some technocrats evoke Metcalfe's law that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its users. What they forget is that a hundred times zero, that's still zero! But they are confusing the value of the network of "bitcoin" users with the value of "bitcoin". A second technocratic tree is thus added to the technological tree to hide the forest of nothingness and absolute emptiness of the "bitcoin".
The value of the "bitcoin" is in fact based on the confidence that imbeciles, speculators and mafia give it. The "bitcoin" is not backed by any central authority and it is likely that states will one day wring its neck. Morocco, after China and Vietnam, is the last state that has just banned "bitcoin".
The "bitcoin", created on January 3, 2009, had an ultra volatile price below $ 20 until its real flight in 2013, with a bubble explosion each year. The "bitcoin" that has just reached $ 14,000 is rising to the sky. Some rejoice when it is actually the harbinger of a crash worse than 1929 and the economic, political, civilizational apocalypse that threatens us.
Irresponsible monetary policies, the hyper-indebtedness of governments, companies and individuals in most countries of the world (China, Japan, emerging countries included), unlike 1929, where the problems were confined mainly to Europe and United States, the real figures of unemployment, hidden in France or the United States of 20%, the catastrophic ratios of the Italian banks, the American public and commercial deficit, the dollar attacked by China as the main currency of the oil contracts: It smells more like apocalypse than a simple crash ahead. In case of bankruptcy of the states and a real unemployment rate of 40%, the suburbs of lawlessness could behave in France as in Saint Martin, after the hurricane.
In 1913 the total debt of the United States amounted to 39 billion dollars. Today it is $ 70 trillion, 1800 times more. Interest rates are now 1.5% in the United States; tomorrow they will inevitably reach 15-20%. And while the Dow Jones fell by 90% between 1929 and 1932, the Nasdaq declined by 80% between 2000 and 2002. The Dow Jones which was at 1000 in 1982 is now around 23,400.

It is likely that in the next crash an unlimited monetary impression will occur and that the world will look like Germany in 1923, with dollar and euro currencies worth zero. The only real natural "bitcoin" since Nebuchadnezzar, gold, will then be worth $ 15,000 or $ 80,000, much more than the current "bitcoin" of men. Gold will replace the "bitcoin" and the "bitcoin" will not replace gold.

[scarface]

Tonight, I'm going to give you a video in which a specialist is warning against the current stock market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N9I8wesVB8


Here are a few charts to understand that there is currently a bubble.




Given that there has been zero earnings growth over the past three years, even under the most optimistic “adjusted earnings” scenario, and only about 2% per year on average over the past five years, the S&P 500 companies are not high-growth companies. On average, they’re stagnating companies with stagnating earnings. And the price-earnings ratio for stagnating companies should be low. In 2012 it was around 15.5. As of July 7, it is nearly 26, and now it's roughly 28...

[scarface]

Today, I’m going to give you my forecasts for 2018.





I’m predicting a s&p 500 at 1600 points and a bitcoin between...0 and 2000$ by the end of 2018. It’s pretty ambitious and actually, knowing that the s&p 500 is currentlystanding at 2673 points and that the Bitcoin is worth 12330$, but I think that the stock and bitcoin bubbles are going to burst.


As far as the stock markets are concerned, the reason is simple: Many markets are overvalued today, and more particularly the US stock markets. You can obtain more clues in the previous messages.
As for Bitcoin,Well, today it is losing 15% at 12330$...and It’s probably not over. It reached 18000$, and after a 40% collapse, we have seen a dead cat bounce up to 15000$. But the decline would likely continue.
I issued a warning a few days ago, and I hope you listened to me.


Here is an interesting analysis, at least I agree with the specialist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6pA2ZkMvL8


The Winklevoss twins talk about Bitcoin futures in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSx77HKF-K4
Those ones are the first Billionaires in bitcoin, but I’m pretty sure we are going to see the homeless in bitcoin soon enough.

[scarface]

Tonight, I'm going to talk about Bitcoin.

Is the bubble bursting tonight?
We have a typical pattern of Shoulder head shoulder, and it may indicate that the bubble is going to burst completely (it means a return to 2000$).
Actually, I think Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will crumble since central banks are going to tighten their policies.




As for the s&p 500, I think it could go back to 1300 points.
Look at Amazon for example: a valuation of 600 Billion $. For the first time in 2016, the firm made profits, but with this valuation, it has a Price Earning Ratio of 250!
It also represents a whopping amount of 1 300 000$ per employee! (but many are only earning minimal wage). So if you work at Amazon, that's good, you can say: for Wall Street, I'm worth 1 300 000$. I feel that aa1234779 must be already sending an application. But wait. They are worth 1 300 000$ only for the shareholders. And it probably just means there is a bubble.
Amazon is a typical example of overvalued stock, but in Wall Street the whole market is actually very expensive. If humbert or Ahmad currently have American stocks, well, maybe it's time you recognized gains.

[Sobhana123]

hii. I can't understand this topic please tell meany one this topic thank you.
ISO 22000 Certification in Oman

[scarface]

Tonight, I’m issuing a red alert on the stock markets.

Here is an article of le Monde, in French, published yesterday, which says “All the indicators for the stock markets are flashing red”
http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2018/01/29/beaucoup-de-clignotants-sont-deja-a-l-orange-voire-au-rouge-sur-les-bourses_5248637_3232.html

A plausible scenario:


And here is an interesting documentary about oil shale, the illusion of energy independence for the US.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkbc0-bXFBs
Art Berman, 40-year veteran in the petroleum production industry and respected geological consultant, returns to the podcast this week to talk about oil. After the price of oil fell from its previous $100+/bbl highs to under $30/bbl in 2015, many declared dead the concerns raised by peak oil theorists. Headlines selling the "shale miracle" have sought to convince us that the US will one day eclipse Saudi Arabia in oil production. In short: cheap, plentiful oil is here to stay.
How likely is this? Not at all, warns Berman. World demand for oil shows no signs of abating while the outlook for future production looks increasingly scant. And the competition among nations for this "master resource" will be much more intense in future decades than we've been used to.