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Financial news and stock markets.

Started by scarface, February 26, 2015, 08:28 PM

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scarface

Tonight, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the American stock markets.


The US Stock Market fell sharply tonight amid growing pessimism on U.S.-China trade talks.
The stock market was off to a rough start on Tuesday, and although it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, rising uncertainty over trade talks with Chinaâ€"set to start Thursdayâ€"took a huge toll and prompted a further sell-off.
With fading optimism around U.S.-China trade negotiations, the S&P 500 dropped 1.56%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.19%.
The CBOE Volatility Index spiked 9.5% following Tuesday’s reports that both sides were ramping up trade tensions.


scarface

Tonight, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

U.S. stocks rose in early afternoon trading on Thursday on hopes that top-level U.S.-China trade talks would yield at least a partial deal, while a rise in Apple’s shares lifted the technology sector.



Wall Street’s main indexes moved higher after President Donald Trump tweeted he would meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday for further trade talks.


I've been right to sell some dsp5 on the short term. I already sold my position on Societe Generale too. I don't think the markets are going to be up for a long time.
This little rally seems to be fragile in the US and the Cac40/dax futures are already down 0.4%.
I still advise you to buy some Pharnext stocks (code Alpha), the context was pretty bad for the biotech equity sector lately and Pharnext's stock price declined by 40% over the last month.

scarface

#242
Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.


Global stocks followed Wall Street higher Friday on optimism about U.S.-Chinese talks on ending a tariff war, while oil prices spiked 2% after a rocket attack on an Iranian tanker.

Market benchmarks in Frankfurt, Paris, Shanghai and Tokyo advanced, while London declined.
Sentiments were buoyed by the start of trade talks Thursday and President Donald Trump’s plan to meet Beijing’s envoy. Economists say a final settlement to the sprawling dispute is unlikely this year, but some traders are hoping for a cease-fire on further tariff hikes or other issues.
Markets have soared and fallen during 12 previous rounds of talks that produced no progress toward ending the costly fight over Beijing’s trade surplus and technology ambitions.
“It looks like investors are positioning themselves for a potentially favorable outcome,” said Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com in a report. “Are investors setting themselves up for disappointment?”


In the current context, I sold my last positions (Renault). I think it's better to be cautious. Once again, American stocks are highly priced.
Here is an interesting chart.

and I advise the most intrepid users of the forum to buy inverse ETF on the s&p 500, like the PROSHARES TRUST SHORT (SH). Using the S&P 500 as its benchmark, SH aims to match the performance of that index if it begins to plummet, by investing in derivatives, that may include futures contracts, swaps, and stock options. The fund focuses on the behavior of large-cap stocks but also watches real estate investment trusts (REITS). Bear in mind that an investment in this fund will lose money if stock prices ascend.
You can also try the PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHRT S&P 500 (SDS). SDS is an aggressive fund that strives to achieve two times the inverse of the S&P 500. Its large-cap focus, coupled with its strategy of doubling the inverse of the index makes SDS a higher-risk ETF than the aforementioned SH fund.

scarface

#243
A few months ago, I wrote a message about the IPO of Uber. And I warned you about the price of the stock.
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg34225#msg34225
At this time, it was valued at 82 billion $, or 45$ per stock. I was saying that the stock was grossly overvalued and added a few articles. I'm sure Maher and Usman are still laughing about it. And in the next message, I was wondering if uber was not going to be a new snapchat, and lose 50% in the 6 following months.
So 5 months later, where is uber?
The stocks lost "only" 30% over the last 5 months, and the stock price is actually at 31$. There was probably a gross overvaluation of Uber indeed. Now the stock price still needs to lose roughly 20% to reach the first target (23$). And even at this price Uber would be probably way too expensive.

scarface


scarface

#245
Note that the Dow Jones futures are now losing 360 points, indicating a possible crash for tomorrow. The s&p 500 futures are now at -2%.

Well, it's a bit odd because a few hours ago I was watching an interesting video about a man who is predicting a "megacrack" with serious arguments.

The newspaper Les Échos (owned by LVMH) published an interview with David Solomon, boss of Goldman Sachs, in which he ensures that there will be no financial crisis in 2020. Olivier Piacentini strongly disagrees with these allegations on the basis of various indicators of the global economy.
First, he says that corporate debts are very high (and it's a much bigger threat than the trade war). Then he says that the actions of central banks made asset bubbles. And he says that at the end of 2007, the newspaper les Echos already released an article stating there would be no financial crisis, 2 months before it actually broke out.
It's difficult to know if Olivier Piacentini will be right, or not. However, I advise those who are interested in stock markets, like shadow.97, to be careful.
As I said earlier you can still buy Gold or Silver. Since my advice a few days ago, when Silver was below 18$, it already rose by 3 percent (currently at 18.6$). I have a target above 20$ for Silver. Btw, I have Silver ingots and many gold coins, in a bank safe, in Paris.
Well, I'm going to tell shadow.97 the truth: I don't know if the Swedish stock markets is overvalued actually. And I don't care. But as far as the American markets are concerned, they are expensive. US Analysts are expecting...a 10% rise in earnings for 2020, just to "justify" current valuations. When we know that earnings decreased by 0,3% in the US in both the 3rd and 4rd quarter of 2019, I'm not sure this forecast will be met.

Here is the video with Piacentini, talking about "a megacrack" (in French).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeLgN_UhG1c



Note that the installers of MKVtoolnix, Libreoffice and handbrake were updated on the forum.
Note that I made a much smaller repack for the Frictionalgames. For the moment this repack is not available, it's still experimental since I modified some dds files (the textures) with a new program. I will release it if it works.
I will try this program on Crysis 3 too see if it works, since it uses dds files too.

scarface

Tonight, I'm going to talk about the financial markets.


Yesterday, we have seen a sell-off on the s&p 500 and in Europe due to the Coronavirus. Now, what's next?

Maybe some of you watched the video I posted a few days ago with Howard Marks who was giving his opinion about the stock markets. This new video explains the stance of Howard Marks when he says that the odds are not in the investors’ favour. This video is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWb0XZmozno
I'm talking about it because I agree with Howard Marks. Asset prices can go higher, but generally speaking, everything is expensive. And it's particularly true for the US stock markets.
For instance, let's talk about Apple. Its earnings are impressive. But the stock price doubled last year. And yet, earnings didn't increase. The sales of Apple Smartphones even decreased in 2019 compared to 2018.

Let's take another indicator: to gauge stock market valuations, investor Warren Buffett focuses on the market capitalization of all publicly-traded U.S. stocks to U.S. GDP, calling, this "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment". Right now, this ratio is at an all-time record high of 153%!, even higher than at the peak of the Dotcom bubble (146%). At 70% to 80%, it is safe to put money in stocks. At 100%, there is danger. At 140%, there is extreme danger (article here: https://www.ccn.com/buffett-indicator-warns-stocks-doomed-worse-crash-than-2008/)

All this doesn't mean that stocks are going to crash tomorrow. However, should the s&p 500 go back to a ratio of 70% of gdp, it would go to 1600 points.

scarface

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

The s&p 500 is down 1%. After yesterday' sudden "flash crash", it's the second day in a row that we are seeing a significant correction. I think some investors are beginning to leave the stock markets: they are expensive and coronavirus is going to hit earnings. In this context, The cac 40 is also down 0.85%.
Silver and gold are soaring.


scarface

#248
Note that a little crack is currently taking place on the stock markets. On the short term the markets could rebound, but I'm expecting them to go lower.


scarface

After market closing for the cac 40.
It's certainly not over, I think the markets could still lose 10% or more.