Financial news and stock markets.

[scarface]

Note that apparently the stock markets could rebound next week.
The cac 40 and the Wall Street cash futures are up significantly.
I told you to buy, carefully, today. I reinforced my positions on Societe Generale 3 times today as I was anticipating a rebound, at least on the short term. I'm all-in. It's too early to say whether it will be a dantesque rebound, however, after a fall of 15%, maybe the stock market can go up 5% or more. However, should the markets go back to their previous high, I would short the s&p500.

These are the biggest losers of the cac40. Performance since January 1st...Renault and Technip are going through a rough patch apparently.

[scarface]

Tonight, I will give my scenario for the stock markets on the short term and for the rest of the year.
I'll try to answer the questions of shadow.97 too.

[scarface]

Tonight, I'm going to give you my scenario. Note that it's a bearish scenario, and the actual result could be different. After all the s&p 500 could end the year at 3600, as many analysts were predicting earlier this year.

Early February, that’s what I was writing on “mystrategicforecast” here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-ZEHmo3qUw : ”My scenario is unfolding as expected. The markets are going to be up till roughly 15 February to reach a major top. And considering the current valuation of the markets, we'll be in for a fall of 30% or more then.”

Well, a correction took place indeed. For the moments the markets have lost 13%. So, what’s next? Maher, shadow.97 and humbert want to know.
When I was looking at the markets a few months ago, it reminded me of what happened in 2011. Early 2011, all the analysts were bullish but the markets were a bit high. It was pretty clear that something was about to happen.
With Fukushima we have seen a first earthquake: The stock market lost 7%. They bounced back and reached their previous high. And In June it was the debt crisis: the market priced a recession, and the cac 40 lost 18% over a two week period. I remember this. At this time I was living in the 11th arrondissement of Paris near the place of Bastille.


I think that the scenario for 2020 could be eerily similar.
We have seen a first correction with the coronavirus. The markets are pricing a recession and lost 13%. On the short term, the markets will probably rebound. Note that for the moment the Wall Street Cash futures are currently negative once again (see picture above). I’m not expecting them to go back to their previous highs though. Maybe the markets can go up 5%. The s&p 500 would be at 3100. Then, I expect the market to go back to 2950, because earnings could be disappointing. The stock market correction and the coronavirus could have long-lasting effects on the economy.
A few weeks later, what could trigger another downward movement of 15% this summer? Well, I expect Bernie Sanders to receive the nomination among the democrats. The stock markets could price the potential election of a communist president then.


As far as shadow.97 is concerned, well, if he has to pay 1600â,¬ for his rent, this is pretty positive since it’s a big house. You have to tell the landlord that if he is too selective he won’t find any tenant. You are the boss, don't forget that.
Note that if you are working in Ile de France, I’m looking for a flat for june. A roommate with good credentials like you would be perfect.
As for the games, I understand you are playing too much. I did that too. When I was 15 I used to play Super Mario Bros 3 and Sonic 2 all day long on the NES and the megadrive. And then I used to play Gran Turismo 2 with friends (I never had any game console besides the 2 above).
For those who don't know SMB 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxT6IwUtLSU
Between 2005 and 2014, I stopped playing games altogether.  It’s just recently that I downloaded again a few games, hence the repacks on the forum. But If you think it’s too time-consuming, just ditch your xbox or playstation, I mean those on the forum are sufficient. And try to spend more time cooking nice dishes, it’s better for your health than Mcdonald.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXxfBPDa1JY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uenM0nb8Vz8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wusRqZlEYVw





Here is another example of good recipe: mackerels with rice, and some shallot slices cooked with white wine.
Here you can see the 2 mackerels that I prepared. I went fishing several times in the Mediterranean see 20 years ago and they used to be bigger actually. With the shallot sauce and some curcumin the rice was pretty good. But the Chablis was a bit disappointing. Enough for the shallot sauce, but not as good as a Sauternes.
aa1234779 and Maher probably don't know but the word maquereau (or its abbreviation mac) (mackerel in French) also means "pimp".

[scarface]

update: Note that the Wall Street cash futures are now plunging 535 points. They were up 250 points Friday evening though, but the Dow Jones could still open 1% lower on Monday.

[scarface]

Tonight, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets of the Gulf countries.

Kuwait market plunges before suspending trade

Kuwait’s bourse â€" trading after a three session break â€" on Sunday plunged 11 per cent to its biggest ever fall in a single day, the hardest hit among all other GCC markets.
The bourse suspended trading for rest of the day due to the steep decline, led by a 14.5 per cent drop in National Bank of Kuwait and a 10 per cent slide in Kuwait Finance House.
The rapid sell-off was triggered after Kuwait recorded 46 people infected with the coronavirus.


Kuwaiti traders wear protective face masks, following the outbreak of the new coronavirus, as they stand on the upper floor since the lower main hall is closed to traders at the Kuwait Boursa stock market trading in Kuwait city, Kuwait March 1, 2020.


The majority of infections in other Gulf countries were diagnosed in people who had visited Iran or who came into contact with people who had been there.
There have been 43 deaths and several hundred confirmed infections in Iran, according to authorities.




Saudi Arabia is the only Gulf countries to have not reported any coronavirus cases.
Saudi Arabia had temporarily suspended the entry of foreigners for pilgrimage and tourism purposes, while Qatar, which reported its first coronavirus case, was close for a public holiday.
State-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco slipped 2.1 per cent to 32.65 riyals, hitting its lowest since it began trading on Dec. 11. It was still trading above its debut price of 32 riyals.

[scarface]

Note that I sold half of the positions on Societe Generale at the opening of the markets at 25.95. The rebound seems weak. Socgen is now at 25.10. Let's wait.

[scarface]

The cac 40 was at +1% when I was speaking of a weak rebound...
It's now losing 1.5%. It might be time to buy back some stocks. I sold this morning and bought the same position of Societe Generale at 24.8â,¬ and 24.4â,¬. The market is probably going to remain volatile.

[scarface]

I was forecasting a rebound of the s&p 500 in this message and a potential target at 3100 points. http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg35163#msg35163
It took place indeed since the s&p 500 is currently at 3090 up 4.60%...

So what's next? Tomorrow, I'm expecting the European markets to open higher. The s&p500 futures could be up too and briefly touch 3150 points. I advise you to sell some stocks during the morning, as I'm expecting a trend reversal in the early afternoon, before the opening of Wall Street.

[scarface]

Once again there is a rebound of the European stock market this morning. It's probably time you sold your stocks. After the huge rebound of the sp500 yesterday, there could another downward movemement.
I sold societe generale at 25.48â,¬.

[scarface]

As expected, there is a correction of the s&p 500, once again. The cac40 was up 2,5% this afternoon. It was finally up 1.12% to close at 5393 points. 2 weeks ago, it was above 6000 points. It was interesting to sell this afternoon indeed.
The Dow Jones is currently losing 380 points. In this context, gold and silver are soaring.
Actually, even if valuations are less stretched, I still some some bearishness in this market. The Dow Jones could go to 25 000 and the cac 40 to 5200 points (roughly 4% below the current levels), before temporarily stopping their fall.