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[Daniil]

Hi guys.

Latest news from Russia:
1) Army officials enlisted a lot of guys into army. Most of that guys have no real military background (they are managers, IT specialists, salesmans, and so on). They doesn't equipped with any kind of anything, and nobody of them knows what's to do.
2) All prices for foreign goods flew to the sky. Official exchange rate is ~68RUR per 1USD; real, as I can measure by comparing prices of laptops, are about ~150-160RUR per 1USD.
3) Nobody did a thing against that all. I can't understand why.

[humbert]

Latest news from Russia:
1) Army officials enlisted a lot of guys into army. Most of that guys have no real military background (they are managers, IT specialists, salesmans, and so on). They doesn't equipped with any kind of anything, and nobody of them knows what's to do.
2) All prices for foreign goods flew to the sky. Official exchange rate is ~68RUR per 1USD; real, as I can measure by comparing prices of laptops, are about ~150-160RUR per 1USD.
3) Nobody did a thing against that all. I can't understand why.

Daniil! Scarface and I had been talking about you (your ears were burning) . Given the information we have from just about all news outlets, we were very concerned Putin and his thugs might have arrested you and sent you to Tsar Vladimir's meat grinder in Ukraine. We read an article in the Washington post that said even a drunk 55-year old man was arrested and sent to fight.

Of course the Russian people only hear the Putin-controlled news media and have no idea of what's really happening. Trust me, it's bad! Tsar Vladimir has painted himself into a corner and sees no way out. He is in serious trouble. Worst of all, he's taking the Russian people with him. There are reports saying his health is bad. No way to confirm if this is true.

[Daniil]

Daniil! Scarface and I had been talking about you (your ears were burning) . Given the information we have from just about all news outlets, we were very concerned Putin and his thugs might have arrested you and sent you to Tsar Vladimir's meat grinder in Ukraine. We read an article in the Washington post that said even a drunk 55-year old man was arrested and sent to fight.

Oh, guys, I'm glad that you thought about me. Seriously. In fact, I was close to arrest. I was saved from this only because I'm cripple - after healing appendicite in social russian hospital (many years ago) I have cutted out upper bricks of my abdonminal press and cutted out about a quarter of one my rib. That's why I'm not in trenches. Yet.

But that was close. I've probably got a shiz after that all. I mean, real shizophrenia.

[humbert]

Oh, guys, I'm glad that you thought about me. Seriously. In fact, I was close to arrest. I was saved from this only because I'm cripple - after healing appendicite in social russian hospital (many years ago) I have cutted out upper bricks of my abdonminal press and cutted out about a quarter of one my rib. That's why I'm not in trenches. Yet.
But that was close. I've probably got a shiz after that all. I mean, real shizophrenia.

Of course we care about you! You are a very valuable member of our forum and a very intelligent man who does not deserve to be sent to an unnecessary war started by a twisted despot for no other reason than self gain at the expense of the Russian people. In fact, NO Russian citizen deserves to be forced to fight for a man who can only be compared to Ivan the Terrible or Joseph Stalin. At least when people had to fight for Tsar Alexander I or Stalin, the Russian nation was in severe danger. That's not the case this time.

Did the police actually show up at your home or place of work to take you away? If so, did you have to shows papers or some other documentation to prove you can't fight? Also: how serious is your "disability"? What can't you do that someone else can't?

Is there any way you can escape to Finland? You could apply for political asylum AND receive benefits for disability. Due to Putin's stupidity, Finland is now a de-facto member of NATO with full membership not far off.

[Daniil]

Did the police actually show up at your home or place of work to take you away? If so, did you have to shows papers or some other documentation to prove you can't fight? Also: how serious is your "disability"? What can't you do that someone else can?

That isn't works like this. Police hunting people mostly in subways (which I didn't use) or in huge condos at new districts (where I very rarely appears). In most cases military comissariat just send an enlistment blanks to everybody. If you come to them, they just enlisted you, and drop to the train to Ukraine. If you not come to them with this enlistment blank, you're a criminal, and in that case they sending cops to catch you. Cops governs you to the court, and in court prosecutor proclaims an order to send you to the prison for 10 years. And from prison they sent you to war in any case. (But if the cops couldn't catch you - for example, if they couldn't found you - you must pay only a ~50$ fine.)

Cops in that case never show you any papers. Buy our laws, every man in country is an inductee (I don't know, is that a correct word, that means that everyone of us is, potentially, a soldier). If you're too young or too old, or if you're a cripple like me - you're also an inductee, you just woudn't be enlisted first. We all have enlistment books (a kind of a small books, like a passport, where is marked your health class, military speciality, and so on). If government proclaimed a mobilization, we all must obey military comissariat, because it's war. If we don't obey, we're a criminals. Cops don't need any special papers to catch the criminals.

In my case I just didn't get the enlistment paper. Yet. But about a quarter of my colleagues - got them. Most of them hides, some of them (who have enough of money) ran away to Turkey and Kazakhstan before cops started to deny departure of those who are in lists.

About my disabilities - by opinion of medics I have less resistance to heavy physical load. I don't argue with them.

Is there any way you can escape to Finland?

No, there is no way to escape to Finland. Because:
1) Cops deny departure to Finland because it's a "unfriendly country"
2) Finland government deny immigrants from Russia, because we are "unfriendly country"
Best direction is Kazakhstan, Turkey, maybe China and Korea. And I'm working on it.

[humbert]

Daniil,

OK, thanks. I'm slowly beginning to understand the situation.

Is the reason you never got an enlistment paper is because they know you're disabled? Or was it just plain luck that they passed you over?

With respect to leaving the country, here we're seeing on television very long lines of young Russian men at the borders of Georgia and Kazakhstan. It's also been reported that flights from Moscow to Turkey or Serbia (the only countries still flying to Russia) cost about $9,000 a seat. It's unbelievable! You must get out now! If sent to the front, do everything possible to surrender to the Urkainians. I know it's difficult and carries a death sentence, but dying in battle is probably worse. The death toll is now close to 75,000.

How Putin can send untrained, unmotivated men to the front and somehow expect to win is beyond my comprehension. The man is as deranged as Hitler during his last days in power. While certainly NATO is doing plenty to help Ukraine, they are by no means their largest arms supplier. It is Russia who is supplying Ukraine with most of their weapons. Often expensive, unused weapons are simply abandoned by soldiers who retreat on foot because have no interest in fighting. Naturally this is not reported in the Putin-controlled news media.

[scarface]

Tonight I will unveil my latest trade on the market: I decided to invest 30000€ in a leveraged inverse tracker on the cac40. If the market is going down I will sell this position. If the market is going up, I will wait or double the position.
If you are an aggressive trader, I recommend shorting the markets on the current levels. At least, I recommend reducing stock holdings.

[Daniil]

Is the reason you never got an enlistment paper is because they know you're disabled? Or was it just plain luck that they passed you over?

Probably, both. Because I know that some of disabled guys were enlisted.

It's also been reported that flights from Moscow to Turkey or Serbia (the only countries still flying to Russia) cost about $9,000 a seat. It's unbelievable! You must get out now!

Well, flights in Russia were always overpriced. I fly last time in my deep childhood, in USSR era. Air travel isn't a solution now, the car is our best choice.

If sent to the front, do everything possible to surrender to the Urkainians. I know it's difficult and carries a death sentence, but dying in battle is probably worse.

That's also not the way. AFAIK, most of casualties is from artillery and missile systems, war is going without CQB, where you can surrender to a person. You can't bargain with a missile. If things goes so far, I would seek the solution by situation.

[scarface]

Tonight, I'm going to talk about the Ubisoft stock.


The game "Mario + Rabbids - Sparks of Hope" was released as planned on October 20. But the Covid crisis and the phenomenon of the "great resignation " have caused production delays throughout the video game industry.




The share price fall now seems exaggerated given the quality of the group's assets and a speculative dimension that could resurface.

Game over! On September the 7th, the video game publisher's stock collapsed by more than 17%. It is the black screen for all those who had bet that Tencent, the world leader in the sector, would launch a public offer (OPA) on the French group.The hope of reaping a nice capital gain has faded to give way to disappointment. However, the Chinese group is there. But the merger with Ubisoft took an unexpected form.



Tencent only got a minority stake of 49.9%, with 5% of the voting rights in Guillemot Brothers Limited, the British holding company of the Guillemot brothers, the largest shareholder of Ubisoft with 13.6% of the capital and 17, 6% of voting rights. Based on the funds provided by Tencent, the implicit value of Ubisoft comes to 80 euros per share.
But on the stock market, the stock takes the opposite path and plunges towards 25.50 euros where it seems to have found a technical support.


The strategy of the group
Founded in 1986 in Brittany by the five Guillemot brothers, Ubisoft has become a multinational in the entertainment sector with 20,000 employees and 45 creation and development centers around the world.
The latest one opened in Canada, at the end of 2021, and was accompanied by the announcement of an investment plan of 650 million by 2030. The whole generates a turnover of 2.1 billion euros (down 4.4% over one year) and is worth more than 3.5 billion euros on the stock market.
In a global industry that now weighs more than 200 billion euros, the French nugget has been able to impose its style thanks to its successful brands, such as Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, Tom Clancy or Watch Dogs as well as its proprietary technologies (Anvil and Snowdrop graphics engines and Scalar cloud native technology). Enough to arouse the interest of its major competitors.
But operationally, the company is exposed to significant execution risks, sometimes causing delays in the release of new games. Thus, last July, Ubisoft revised its net sales forecast downwards due to the one-year delay of two major titles in its catalog: Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora and Assassin's Creed Mirage.
The publisher can count on the arrival on the market of Mario + The Rabbids: Sparks of Hope and on the signing of a license for the development of its mobile games.


Its valuation
Reassured by the company's forecasts, brokers such as UBS, Berenberg or Morgan Stanley keep a buy rating on the stock, with a price target ranging from 48 to 55 euros. Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation on Ubisoft, which it carries from "sell" to "neutral", but with a price target reduced from 41 to 37 euros.
Beyond the results, analysts appreciate a more balanced return/risk profile, with a stock that is now traded on the basis of a discount of 26% compared to the rest of the sector, against a historical discount of 9%.
Finally, the presence of the Chinese group Tencent in the capital of Ubisoft does not completely close the door to a competing offer. Especially since the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard is still not finalized. Thus, the speculative dimension of the stock could soon reappear.

I invested today in Ubisoft at the price of 25.40 €

[humbert]

Well, flights in Russia were always overpriced. I fly last time in my deep childhood, in USSR era. Air travel isn't a solution now, the car is our best choice.

I'm looking at the map and unfortunately Сaнкт Петербург is very far north. To drive from there to Georgia or Khazakstan will take forever assuming it's even possible. Ukraine itself is closer.

That's also not the way. AFAIK, most of casualties is from artillery and missile systems, war is going without CQB, where you can surrender to a person. You can't bargain with a missile. If things goes so far, I would seek the solution by situation.

Do you have access to news agencies in the UK. If so, check out https://metro.co.uk/2022/09/16/ukrainians-giving-russians-secret-surrender-cards-to-help-them-escape-17388513. This article is dated 06/09/2022. If you can't access it then try Google Images and type "Ukrainian surrender card". There are surrender instructions and even a phone number to call. Ukrainians are mad only at pro-Putin militants who pillage their country and harm their people. They have compassion for Russian soldiers who are against the war and want to give themselves up. They are seen as victims, not perpetrators. Naturally doing this will not be easy and is the very last resort. Try to hide or get out so you won't even need to try to call Zelensky.