Author Topic: Financial news and stock markets.  (Read 81893 times)

July 17, 2016, 03:26 PM
Reply #100
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Well, you know shadow97, I'm glad you are asking such interesting questions. As always, you seem broad-minded, it has become rare.
In this topic, like in the others of the forum, nobody talks because we are tackling interesting issues. Were we to talk about football, there would be thousands of imbeciles on the forum, inevitably.

To answer your question, I'm using a bank safe to store hard-to-replace documents, jewelry, gold and other valuables.
Here is a photo of some of my coins, in sealed packets.

If you are buying Gold or Silver, don't do like me, don't tell the people around you even your parents, they will laugh at you. Because they don't know anything about economy, and also because they are jealous since they have no money to buy Silver or Gold.

Now I'm going to tackle another question: is it the good timing to invest in stock markets or Gold?
Well, the last time you asked me a question in this topic, I guess I gave you a good piece of advice. When the Stockholm stock exchange was standing at 1622 points, I told you I would sell...It's now at 1372, 15% below.
As for now, I don't want to give you bad advice, since I'm a bit perplex: The markets have undergone a correction, but after the recent rebound I wouldn't come back. Central banks keep interest rates steady and at a low level, it's likely to reassure anxious investors and prompt stock prices to rise again (The Dow Jones reached new highs) but the economic situation is not as good as it seems. I read that in the UK, a slowdown of the economy is already underway. As for the rest of Europe, well the situation of certain banks is still pretty dire. The balance sheet of Deutsche Bank is not very beautiful according to various analysts.

As for precious metals, Well, if you decide to buy Gold or Silver, you must have a comfortable liquidity buffer.
Personally, I bought gold in 2014. It was not the perfect timing, but almost. At this time I was already aware that the BCE could announce a QE at any time. Actually, at this time the price of gold was a bit high, but the quantitative easing of the BCE dragged down the euro to 1.10$...(I bought some coins at 180 and 200 euros, they are now worth about 220 euros).
Investing in precious metals is the best way to be protected in case of devaluation anyway.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2019, 05:48 PM by scarface »

July 17, 2016, 07:31 PM
Reply #101
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What do you plan to do with those gold coins? Are you planning to speculate and sell them when the price of gold goes up or what?

July 26, 2016, 02:13 PM
Reply #102
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Tonight I’m going to hold an exceptional conference to give you my opinion about the financial markets, and answer shadow97, because I think my previous reply was incomplete.

At present, it seems that financial markets are stagnating. In this context, buying shares can be a bit risky. We could think that ECB‘s quantitative easing is likely to be more favorable to Europe's equity markets than to America's, but the valuations of both of them are now high.
With the Dow Jones standing at 18500 points, the most aggressive traders of the forum can buy some bearish ETF. From this point of view, they can hedge their position or play purely speculatively with the UltraShort Dow 30 ETF named DXD (this fund seeks to deliver twice the inverse of the daily performance of the DJIA). As far as the European markets are concerned, I guess it is perhaps too late to invest in stocks and to early to invest in a bearish tracker (In case the cac40 and the dax are climbing by a few percents, maybe buying some BX4 and DSD could be wise).

Lately, I told shadow97 that gold and silver investments could be interesting. In fact, historically, gold and silver were not very good investments. They do not pay dividends and brokerage fees due upon the acquisition and sale or taxes on capital gains can be significant.
In fact, gold and silver should not take a significant part of your assets (a few percents, not more).
Today, what matters is to preserve one’s assets, a fortiori with the sorcerer's apprentices at the head of central banks.
This is why assets diversification is essential. I am convinced that the most active users on the forum, as humbert, Maher or usmangujjar are nodding in agreement, while the others must be wondering what the hell I'm saying.
By the way, humbert asked recently:
What do you plan to do with those gold coins?
Currently, I'm planning to keep my gold coins and my silver bars, as long as Doctor Draghi and and Mrs Yellen are printing money...what else?

Mid 2014, I bought dollars and Swiss francs for a few thousand euros. I told a few people I was buying foreign currencies but they just laughed.
It turned out that a few months later, the euro collapsed against the dollar and the Swiss franc. I was vindicated. and I made an interesting, non taxable capital gain, almost 20% of the initial bet. With hindsight I should have bought more foreign currencies, but it's always easy to judge an investment thereafter.
Today, I have more trouble seeing opportunities, with the €/ $ and €/chf pairs respectively standing at 1.10 and 1.09.
If the British pound keeps falling, there may be a buying opportunity, even though I hardly see what catalyst could boost the pound.
For the most fearless investors the forum, I guess that the Syrian pound could be an interesting investment in the medium term, for the simple reason that it is not worth much. But it might be difficult to obtain this currency, and recent events are not calling for an improvement of the situation in Syria in the short term.

PS: a new user named “demouser” seems to be particularly happy with the latest edition of windows 7 x64 lite. This is good news. After years of work, this version is indeed quite interesting.
Note that Next month I will probably not update it. Currently, I don’t have much time. I’m not planning to update windows 10 either.  Maybe I won't be present on the forum. I'm just tired.
Remember that the updates for net framework 4.6 needs to be manually installed, they fail with windows update (you must extract them, run the msi and it will ask the path for the .msi of the modified net framework lite, the link is somewhere in the rebase topic).
« Last Edit: January 22, 2019, 05:49 PM by scarface »

December 05, 2016, 06:03 AM
Reply #103
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Yesterday evening, I deleted a few movies in the good movies topic. However, there are still a few interesting movies that you can download.

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight of the financial markets.
Markets in Europe recovered slightly after earlier losses on Monday following the announcement from Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi that he intended to resign after a defeat in a key referendum.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up by about 1 percent after opening in the red.
A few weeks ago, I talked about Vergnet. It was climbing by 30% this morning, reaching 1.35 euros. I sold my position at 1.20 euros and made a tidy profit (Fortunately, I had sold my previous position bought at 1.23 euros just before its profit warning - and bought again several times between 1.04 and 1.10. Below 1 euro, I must admit that I had a significant virtual loss).

I was thinking about a Christmas present for Maher or for the regular users of the forum, some good chocolate, or something else (usmangujjar or vasudev for example).
If you can't afford some chocolate for Christmas, send me your address, maybe someone will deliver some gifts.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2020, 10:06 AM by scarface »

December 06, 2016, 07:40 PM
Reply #104
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Allan J. Lichman, a professor of history who correctedly predicted the outcome of every American election since 1984 and predicted a Trump victory 8 months ago, is now predicting that in all likelihood Trump will be impreached. I suppose time will tell.

January 08, 2017, 07:36 AM
Reply #105
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Today, I’m going to hold an exceptional conference about the end of oil. This conference is part of the topic about finance because of the future consequences on the economy.

The rapprochement between Exxon and the Kremlin is a symptom of the physical limits to growth.
According to the International Energy Agency and HSBC, it is necessary that the prices of the barrel go up, and quickly, if not the peak oil is likely to be imminent.
But can oil prices rise quickly?

Donald Trump claimed to appoint at the head of the American diplomacy the boss of the oil giant Exxon, Rex Tillerson. It’s not sure that the Senate validated this appointment, while the CIA and the NSA claimed that Vladimir Putin, a key partner of Exxon, managed to influence the US presidential campaign in favor of Trump.

"Tillerson Rex", by TOad

This choice of the new American president, whatever happens, is symptomatic of the question discussed here: are we fighting against the physical limits to economic growth?
The Kremlin as well as Exxon have their backs to the wall facing this issue, and consider each other as emergency exits.

Exxon first. The growth of the American firm is eaten from the inside by the physical limits of its oil fields.
Exxon's oil production has declined slowly but steadily over the past ten years, although in the meantime the biggest oil firm has doubled its productive investments.

Doubling the fertilizer for a crop that decreases: there is a problem in the soil.
Exxon's crude oil extractions were 2,221 million barrels per day (Mb / d) in the third quarter of 2016, down 17% from a historical peak of 2.681 million barrels a day in 2006.

Since 2015, the fall in oil prices has caused the investments of Exxon - as in the entire crude industry - to collapse, which does not bode well for the future production.
The roots of evil are deeper than the fall in prices. From 2011, when the barrel was worth more than $ 100 (compared to about $ 58 today), the billions spent to sustain production have continuously increased the free cash flow of 'Exxon

2011 is the date when Rex Tillerson imposed a sensational and perilous change on Exxon, partnering with Vladimir Putin. The goal is to develop - with hundreds of billions of potential investments over the next few decades - the two ultimate major targets on Earth for the petroleum industry, of which the real potential remains unknown: the Russian Arctic and the oil shale of Western Siberia.

Russia now. Russian oil production was maintained despite the fall in oil prices (to the surprise of all observers). But the conventional oil fields of Western Siberia are old and many are depleted. The total production of Russian oil is doomed to a long decline, repeated for several years the International Energy Agency, which insists in its latest annual report that “neither the future potential of the Arctic nor the Russian resources In shale oil are enough to compensate for the decline".

The Kremlin has an urgent and massive need for foreign capital and expertise, whose access remains hampered by the sanctions imposed by the Obama administration following the Ukrainian crisis.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), in the politically correct language of its latest annual report published in November, is insisting on certain points more openly than ever. Here are some of the most significant warnings:

- more than 50% of the world's oil fields have reached their production peaks, and will decline in the future;

- investments in the development of hydrocarbon production are expected to fall to 450 billion dollars in 2016, against a record amount of more than 700 billion before the prices fell;

- the annual discoveries are at their lowest level in 70 years;

- by 2025, a lack of 16 million barrels per day is expected, the equivalent of the production of Saudi Arabia and Iran, to fill the gap between the expected level of output and the decline in current production (94,5 Mb/d in 2015);

- this gap can be filled by new resources, provided that the investments quickly rise to more than 700 billion $, their record before the fall in oil prices (hypothesis of the "New Policies Scenario", see below) ;

More alarmist, the bank HSBC (which had already shown its concern about peak oil), highlighted the following facts in a September report entitled "Will the decline of mature fields lead to the next oil crisis? "

- at least 64% of world production is declining;

- by 2040 it will be necessary to develop more than 40 Mb/d of new resources (nearly half of the world production, or the equivalent of four Saudi Arabia) only to maintain the production at its Current level;

- small oil fields generally decline 2 times faster than large ones, and the world production of crude oil is increasingly dependent on small fields;

- "significant improvements in the production and efficiency of drilling in response to falling prices have masked the underlying decline rates experienced by many companies, but the degree to which these improvements can continue is becoming limited ".

It is necessary that the prices of the barrel go up, and quickly, in order to boost investments, otherwise the peak oil is likely to be imminent, warned the IEA and HSBC.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has been reiterating (for the last two years) that his main fear is that "investments may collapse, which could have major implications for security of supply in the years to come ".

An observation confirmed since September by eminent industry actors such as Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih ("If we do not plan enough investment, the world will pay a huge price in the form of shortages of oil "), or Total's CEO, Patrick Pouyanné (" if we do not invest enough ... In 2020, the offer will be insufficient ").

But can the prices of the barrel go up quickly enough?

Despite the cuts in production that OPEC members and several other producing countries, notably Russia, have committed to implement in the coming months, no major source of analysis anticipates a return of the crude oil at around $ 100 a barrel, the level that prevailed when investment was at its highest.

On the demand side, the evolution of the world economic situation leaves little room for anticipating a sharp increase in the prices of the barrel.

"Globalization" seems to be slowing down, despite historically low interest rates, judging by the evolution of international trade:

The growth of world trade is historically closely linked to overall economic growth.

By far the main engine of this global growth, China's economy, highly dependent on its exports, is particularly threatened by the slowdown in international trade.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is ready to abandon the minimum target of 6.5% annual growth so far sanctified by Beijing, according to an indiscretion reported by the Bloomberg agency. At stake: concerns about the development of the Chinese debt, and an international environment made more uncertain by the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency.

The level of indebtedness of Chinese companies alone reached 171% of China's GDP in 2015, according to Standard & Poor's, twice as much as in the United States and Europe. While before the 2008 crisis, China needed a dollar of debt to generate a dollar of GDP, the ratio is now six dollars of debt to one dollar of GDP, reports Morgan Stanley!

Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and professor at Harvard, Kenneth Rogoff warned in a forum translated and published by Les Echos in early December:

    "Current markets are obsessed with the question of how far the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the next twelve months. They seem to lack long-term vision. The real concern should be on this other issue: Will it be able to lower rates in the next major recession? Given its difficulty in ensuring that its base rate will exceed 2% next year, there will be very little room for maneuver to make cuts in the event of a recession. (...) There may not be enough time before the next deep recession to lay the foundation for an effective policy of negative interest rates or to set a higher inflation target. But this is no excuse for not starting to examine these options closely. "

In other words, the growth potential of the global economy could be too low to sustain global oil production, our prime source of energy. This hypothesis, which seems to appear on the one hand, is a result of too low a rise in the incomes of the middle classes and on the other hand an excessive increase in the various costs induced by the necessarily increasing complexity of our technical societies.

The coming months are going to be instructive: "May you live in interesting times" ...

« Last Edit: January 22, 2019, 05:51 PM by scarface »

January 12, 2017, 07:39 PM
Reply #106
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Let's hope that as you say oil starts to become scarce and the price begins to climb. It's the only way alternative sources of energy will become viable. That will not happen as long as the price of oil is on the floor.

January 16, 2017, 02:40 PM
Reply #107
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tonight, I'm going to answer the people of the forum, like shadow.97, who are probably wondering what my prognosis are in the current context.

Well, I’ve already been right several times. Those who bought some EDF, -22% in one year ( know it: I told you to stay away from this stock one year ago:

Now, what can I say? Well, I’m still advising you to stay away from the stock markets (I already said that a few days ago). Indeed, I think that 2017 is going to be a turning point: arrival of Trump, implementation of the Brexit, steep rise in oil prices.

Actually, the pro-growth policies likely to be enacted in the first half of 2017 by Trump, including corporate and personal tax cuts, increased spending on infrastructure and defense, and deregulation, may help to boost economic growth in 2017 and increase the economy’s potential growth rate (while changing the mix of growth drivers). But this is already taken into accounty by the markets?
However, they may also lead to some of the “overs” that tend to emerge at the end of expansions (overconfidence, overborrowing, overspending), naturally accelerating the economic cycle and bringing a recession sooner than otherwise might have been the case.

As far as oil is concerned, forecasts from the IEA suggest that oil prices will continue to rise gradually because the supply surplus is nearly gone and may soon be replaced by a supply shortfall. Given the huge number of exploration projects that have been trimmed back or canceled, discovery rates have fallen off a cliff. We can probably anticipate an actual oil supply crunch once demand exceeds the ability of OPEC spare capacity and American shale oil production to offset it, which could occur in 2017. A steep rise in oil price would inevitably trigger another recession.

If I had to give you my scenario for this year, well, taking into account the level of the stock markets, I’m expecting a 20% correction. And I think I’m rather optimistic.

For the new users of the forum, some goodies:
Zion++ Fuchsia :
The latest version of Flash AIO:
« Last Edit: January 16, 2017, 02:44 PM by scarface »

January 31, 2017, 12:36 PM
Reply #108
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Lately, we have seen that shadow.97 was a bit disappointed, because he can’t find what he’s looking for on the forum : some very interesting messages.
That’s why tonight, I’m going to hold another conference about stock markets.

Actually, my strategy did not change. Since the stock markets have reached a stratospheric level, I’m not buying any stock any longer. (Yesterday I must say I was tempted to buy some Adocia stocks after the recent collapse, and it lost 13% today, once again).
This morning I sold ¼ of my position of an inverse EFT based on the s&p 500 (I made tiny capital gains). I prefer to be cautious, if the s&p 500 is climbing, I will buy some inverse ETF once again.
But in my opinion, a rounding top is forming and a bearish scenario is taking shape (after the trump bubble, this could be the kiss-cool effect).

According to another analyst that I’m quoting:
“The cyclical bull market in stocks that began in early 2009 has developed into one of the largest and most speculative bubbles of the past 100 years. Further, at a current duration of nearly eight years, the latest cyclical top is long overdue and could form at any time.

In terms of real GDP growth, the current economic expansion has been the weakest since the end of the Great Depression.

If economic growth has been so poor during the past eight years, why has the stock market experienced such a strong advance during that time? Why is the S&P 500 index up a staggering 240% from the low in March 2009?
Those gains have been fueled primarily by the Federal Reserve and its reckless stimulus policies that have targeted risk assets such as stocks. By holding short-term interest rates near zero for seven years, the Federal Reserve has encouraged malinvestment and speculation while punishing saving, in the process creating massive market distortions and imbalances.

As a result, the current risk/reward profile of the stock market from an investment perspective is at one of the two highest levels of the past 100 years. Only the peak in 2000 during the dotcom bubble created a more overvalued market than the current one.

The current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index is now over 25 and it is priced to deliver slightly negative annual returns during the coming decade. Think about that. The stock market will likely be at or below current levels ten years from now. That is because there is always a cost for manipulating markets to this degree, and, in this case, the cost will ultimately prove to be severe. In essence, the Federal Reserve has pulled future gains into the present, setting the stage for many years of extremely poor performance.
Of course, because bubbles are highly irrational by nature, predicting the timing of their demise with any useful degree of statistical confidence is difficult. However, careful analysis of market data can indicate when a bubble is on the verge of collapse.
Our computer models monitor a large basket of data that have, historically, provided reliable signals with respect to long-term direction, and right now several indicators suggest that the current bubble is vulnerable. For example, our cyclical valuation and sentiment scores, which vary from an extremely bullish value of 100 to an extremely bearish value of -100, are both near bearish extremes.

Additionally, although market internal data such as breadth and volume have yet to exhibit similar weakness, both currently display the early signs of a negative divergence. Volume summation has started trending lower after forming a top in December that was much lower than the previous peak in July.

From an intermediate-term perspective, the stock market may also be in the process of reversing. In early November, our computer models correctly predicted the formation of the latest intermediate-term low, but after five weeks of strength, the S&P 500 index has struggled to move higher during the past six weeks.
A cycle high setup occurred this week, suggesting that an intermediate-term cycle high (ITCH) may have formed in early January. A cycle high signal could occur as soon as next week, so market behavior should be monitored carefully during the next several sessions.
As always, it is important to remember that a long-term top is a process, not an event. Anything can happen over short-term time periods, but the key to having consistent success over the long run as an investor and a trader is to stay aligned with the most likely scenarios and protect yourself from the unlikely ones.
There will come a time when the risk/reward profile of stocks is once again favorable and the judicious study of market data will signal when that next long opportunity develops, just as it did in March 2009. However, now is a time for extreme caution and we remain fully defensive from an investment perspective.”

February 08, 2017, 07:49 AM
Reply #109
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That's an awesome analysis and I registered her just to say how grateful I am. You're very smart.
I have a few questions. How often do you read the finance news? Which resource do you trust the most?
Because I read Yahoo finance and usually read the news when I'm on the way home on my smartphone. I find Yahoo apk very useful (take it from here theappsdepot for Android, but I'm sure that for IOS you can find it at the Apple Store)
« Last Edit: February 10, 2017, 05:05 PM by Aris99 »