Author Topic: Financial news and stock markets.  (Read 81898 times)

March 04, 2020, 05:54 AM
Reply #270
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 2390
  • Gender: Male
Today, the European markets are going up as the s&p 500 futures are climbing.
Since there has been a serious correction lately, I advise you to buy some bank stocks. Many bank shares hit a one year low recently, and in the short term, there could be a significant recovery. For example Societe Generale lost roughly 25% (from 32€ to 24€). A short term target could be 26€. However, I think the coronavirus turmoil is not over. What's more, Biden is the front-runner again, that could help push stocks higher.

March 08, 2020, 07:43 AM
Reply #271
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 2390
  • Gender: Male
Note that the stock markets across the Gulf fell dramatically during Sunday trading.
Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange, the Tadawul, was down 7.7% in afternoon trading.
The Abu Dhabi index fell 5.8%, Dubai’s Financial Market General Index was down 7.47% and Kuwait’s index had plunged by 10% at 1:30 p.m.
Note that the Kuwait Premier Market index was suspended on Sunday after hitting a daily decline limit of 10 per cent in company share values. This was the second time in only over a week that trading on the market was suspended due to a rapid downward decline.

Shares of Saudi Aramco fell below their initial public offering (IPO) price on Sunday for the first time since they began trading in December after the OPEC oil supply cut pact with Russia fell apart on Friday.
Aramco shares were trading at 30.00 riyals, down 9.09%, compared to the IPO price of 32 riyals.

A Kuwaiti trader wears a protective face mask.

March 08, 2020, 05:30 PM
Reply #272
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 2390
  • Gender: Male
Note that a crack could take place tomorrow...

Stock futures tumbled in overnight trading Sunday as investors continued to brace for the economic fallout from the spreading coronavirus, while a shocking all-out oil price war added to the anxiety.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 900 points. The S&P 500 futures also indicated a 4% drop at the open on Monday. The sharp declines in the futures market pointed to more turbulence ahead after a roller-coaster week that saw the S&P 500 swing up or down more than 2.5% for four days straight.

Saudi Arabia on Saturday slashed official crude selling prices for April, in a sudden U-turn from previous attempts to support the oil market as the coronavirus hammers global demand. The move came after OPEC talks collapsed Friday, prompting some strategists to see oil prices crater to $20 this year.

“Crude has become a bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said Sunday. “It will be virtually impossible for the [S&P 500] to sustainably bounce if Brent continues to crater,” he added.

International benchmark Brent crude futures plunged 30% to $32.05 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 27% to $30.07 per barrel.


March 10, 2020, 06:07 AM
Reply #273
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 2390
  • Gender: Male
Note that I advise you to sell the rebound on the European markets. The situation is still shaky and the stock markets could lose part of their gains during the afternoon. The cac 40 is currently up 3.83%.

March 10, 2020, 12:47 PM
Reply #274
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 2390
  • Gender: Male
This morning, I told you to sell your stock. So what happened on the European markets then?

On the right you can see a large chart for the cac 40. The chart is pretty similar for the Dax 30 or the FTSE MIB.
They were all up at least 3% this morning and they end up down at least 1.5% (-3.5% for the MIB).

The only exception is the Athens stock market which ended up 5.93% but it's still one of the worst performance since the beginning of the year (-31%).

Now on such levels, I think it might be interesting to buy for the long term. What we are living right now is the worst financial crisis since 2008.
Now the question is: what kind of stock can we choose?
Because even if the markets have undergone a very serious correction, I'm not sure that markets will go straight up as soon as the coronavirus is over. And above all, some stocks could keep going down. Personally, I think that the bank stocks are correctly valued on the current levels with good dividend yields. So I recommend Societe Generale which was up despite today's turmoil, with a target at 28€. Note that Socgen announced a stock buyback one month ago when the share price was at 32€. Now it's only at...18.2€ !
It's hard to recommend oil stocks in such an environment. I won't recommend car makers either, I don't know where they are going. Bmw was at 54€ this morning on the dax 30, it closed at...50.30 €, its lowest level since October 2010. And Renault is down 52% since the beginning of the year.
Fundamentally, I strongly recommend not to buy Tesla which is probably overvalued. Tesla is worth more than Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, Renault, and Hermes combined.

The recommendation to sell the markets took place at 11.07 am GMT.

March 10, 2020, 04:20 PM
Reply #275
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 2390
  • Gender: Male
Note that I see a lot of bullishness for the European markets for the rest of the week,despite the fact that Italy is quarantined. I think that the markets were waiting for strict measures to deal with the Coronavirus.
Plus the Euro that is now going down (I think the Fed won't keep low interest rates as soon as the Coronavirus comedy is over and I'm still bearish on the €/$ pair).
Tonight the Dow Jones closed significantly higher. And the cac 40 futures is showing 4800 points. I think the cac 40 could come back to 4950-5000 or even 5200 in the coming weeks.

To give you a slight idea of the value of the cac 40 compared to the American stocks, take Facebook, Tesla and snapchat and it's roughly worth as much as 37 companies of the cac 40 (except Total, LVMH and Hermes).

For tomorrow, I recommend a buy and hold strategy. In my opinion bank stocks could be the best performers in the weeks to come. As I said earlier, I woud be very cautious with the car maker sector. The market is not pricing current cash flows but the fact that petrol cars could disappear in a near future. That's why Tesla is valued at 120 billion $ and Peugeot at 12 billion €, even though the former is not earning money and the latter has a net profit which increased 13.2% to 3.2 billion euros in 2019.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 04:29 PM by scarface »

March 10, 2020, 06:39 PM
Reply #276
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 2390
  • Gender: Male
I was talking about a "Buy and hold" strategy a few hours ago.
Shadow.97 must be wondering if it's still valid.
Let's have a look at the futures:


Since the main place, Wall Street, is down before the opening (practically -2% now) it's perfect to buy stocks at the opening of the market tomorrow.
I guess shadow97 would have liked to see the OMX stockholm 30 futures, unfortunately ig markets only displays the main stock markets futures. I just watched the evolution of the OMX 30. It's pretty similar to the other stock market indexes, ie down 20% since early mid February.

Note that I will go back to the Paris region in 2 months. I found a flat in the Hauts de Seine. It's smaller and much expensive than my flat of Saint Etienne, but I guess you can't compare the prices of Saint Etienne and the Paris region. Maybe I will go to Cairo in May or August though. I've always wanted to visit this town. Maybe I could meet Ahmad or Maher over there. Who knows? And maybe a wife too.
If shadow.97 is looking for a flat in Ile de France, near Paris, and if he (or she) has a job, he can be my roommate (for 300€ per month only). If you are interested, send me an email.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 06:54 PM by scarface »

March 12, 2020, 09:11 PM
Reply #277
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 2191
  • Gender: Male
Note that I see a lot of bullishness for the European markets for the rest of the week,despite the fact that Italy is quarantined. I think that the markets were waiting for strict measures to deal with the Coronavirus.

This Coronavirus thing has reached a point of mass hysteria. My lady's sister in Mexico called to tell us it was next to impossible to obtain antibacterial soap or any sanitizer there. Even here in San Antonio where there has been just ONE case, these items are hard to come by. I heard on the news that the NCAA cancelled its college basketball tournament, and the NBA has cancelled some games. All this due to massive gross exaggerations by the news media fueled by sheer panic for a disease that has a kill ratio well under 10%.

Be advised I'm being realistic and not complacent. If this were Ebola I'd be more seriously concerned. BTW, you guys DO remember Ebola, don't you?

March 13, 2020, 07:26 AM
Reply #278
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 2390
  • Gender: Male
This Coronavirus thing has reached a point of mass hysteria. My lady's sister in Mexico called to tell us it was next to impossible to obtain antibacterial soap or any sanitizer there. Even here in San Antonio where there has been just ONE case, these items are hard to come by. I heard on the news that the NCAA cancelled its college basketball tournament, and the NBA has cancelled some games. All this due to massive gross exaggerations by the news media fueled by sheer panic for a disease that has a kill ratio well under 10%.

Be advised I'm being realistic and not complacent. If this were Ebola I'd be more seriously concerned. BTW, you guys DO remember Ebola, don't you?
Well, we could say I was wrong on 10 march...the cac was down 12% on 12 March...

Note that I advise you to buy bank stocks now. The rebound is likely to continue next week. I see a significant upside potential.
And I think the cac 40 could go back to 5000 points once the coronavirus turmoil is over.

As for humbert's question, there is also a shortage of Hydroalcoholic gel here. There is indeed an exaggerations by the news media...
I remember Ebola but I think it was a concern mainly in West Africa.

March 13, 2020, 08:23 AM
Reply #279
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 2390
  • Gender: Male
Note that the threat of the Coronavirus is so severe in France that I've been imposed technical unemployment.
I guess it's probably the case for some users of the forum.
I read that 3 cases of Coronavirus were found in Palestine. Maybe Maher was quarantined too.