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Financial news and stock markets.

Started by scarface, February 26, 2015, 08:28 PM

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scarface

Note that the s&p 500 just turned negative, it lost 2,4% since my previous message, half an hour ago.
Yesterday, growing fears of a surge in coronavirus infections sent the stock market tumbling, pulling the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1,800 points for its worst day since March. In this context the cac 40 lost all its gains.
Another correction could take place, be careful.

scarface

Note that there is currently another little correction on the s&p 500, down 0.4%. I would not be surprised if it was down 2% at the closing. The s&p 500 is close to its all time highs while there are many economic uncertainties.

scarface

The Dow Jones was finally up 1.9% on Friday. However, I was probably right when I told you to be careful. In the current context, we will have to deal with uncertain economic conditions and financial markets turmoil.
And tomorrow's session could be a bit restless: the Dow Jones futures are currently losing 400 points. If I decide to take some positions, I'll tell you that tomorrow.


scarface

#343
Note that the Dow Jones futures are now losing more than 900 points. The Cac 40 and the Dax are crumbling at the opening, losing respectively 2.6 and 2.8%.
Note that I bought some Societe Generale at the opening of the markets.

scarface

Note that I already sold Societe Generale at 14.3â,¬ and made gains.  I already have a significant position with a higher price, I'm not taking risks. I expect more bearishness on the short term and perhaps a cac 40 at 4600 points. If new opportunities arise, I will be back.

scarface

Tonight, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock market.


The Dow Jones is dropping more than 500 points as coronavirus resurgence concerns grow.


Note that Tech giant Wirecard totally collapsed after German accounts scandal.
German magazine Der Spiegel reported that Japanese investor SoftBank was planning to sue Wirecard’s long-time auditor EY over the scandal.
Wirecard, which disclosed a $2.1 billion hole in its books, is the first member of the DAX stock index to go bust, barely two years after winning a spot among Germany’s top 30 listed companies.

scarface

#346
Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock market.

There is currently a steep correction since the Dow Jones is down 1.8%. I'm afraid Trump might have said something wrong.
In this context, the cac 40 is down 1.02%. Note that I reinforced my position on Société Générale, even if I'm staying bearish for the overall equity markets.
Note that I advise against buying Tesla and Amazon. Those 2 stocks are just too expensive.



I'd be glad to discuss this with sb on the forum, even if you are not buying stocks. Are you bullish? Are you bearish? You can tell us what you think.




scarface

#347
Tonight I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

Apparently, it is going to be a bloodbath tomorrow on the Euopean markets, since Wall Street lost all its gains. I was right to sell some Societe Generale stocks this morning, at the opening of the markets (1000 stocks,, 500 at 14.45â,¬ and 500 at 14.49â,¬) and I bought some s&p 500 shorts even though I should have waited a bit more (1000 dsp5 at 19.90â,¬).
Note that Tesla was up 12% at the opening. It is now down 3%!
Note I'm buying Societe Generale at 14.80 and 14.60â,¬ (I still have 2800 stocks) and I have a first target for the s&p 500 at 3100 points.
I'm still bearish for the â,¬/$ with a target a 1.10 and I'm bullish on gold with a target at 1900$ per ounce.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIQt5ZL-lE4

scarface

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the financial markets.

The Dax and the cac 40 are down this morning, since the Nasdaq was off 2.1%, while the S&P 500 finished down 0.9% yesterday.
I sold some short positions, and yet I'm not buying anything for the moment, since I don't see a lot of bullishness ahead.


What's more, despite yesterday's correction on the Nasdaq, some stocks like Amazon or Tesla are probably still expensive.
Actually, to determine the price of stocks, we can use two approaches, and investors can view today's stock markets as both expensive AND cheap.
Many analysts turn to Shiller PE which analyzes the price-to-earnings ratio of all companies that comprise a stock market index. The higher the Shiller PE, the more overvalued a stock market index appears to be. Currently the Shiller PE ratio of the S&P 500 is high â€" in fact, only during the tech bubble in 2000 has the Shiller PE been higher than it is today. This suggests that the North American markets are overvalued and that returns over the next 20 years will be underwhelming.
Another way to assess a stock market's valuation is by analyzing the bond yield versus the stock market's earning yield ratio. Currently bond yields are at historic lows which makes the stock market's earning yield look attractive. Based on this formula, in contrast to the Shiller PE, stock prices appear cheaper today than they were a decade ago.

The stock market is currently disconnected, while many tech companies are up substantially year to date (Apple â€" 30 per cent, Microsoft â€" 35 per cent, Amazon â€" 66 per cent, Netflix â€" 55 per cent), other segments, such as restaurants, travel and hospitality, are down significantly.

We are also seeing the list of high-profile bankruptcies grow â€" just this week Brooks Brothers and DavidsTea were unfortunately added to the list. It's a stock picker's market, but investors need to be prepared for surprises.

A Brooks Brothers store in Toronto closed in 2018 due to flooding, but this week the 200-year-old company filed for bankruptcy protection in the U.S.

I read yesterday that Bofa's target for the s&p 500 is at 2900 points for the end of the year. We might be in a recession and the economy is going to struggle for at least the remainder of 2020, but that doesn't mean the stock market won't do well even if we can be reasonably bearish in the medium term. An error that many people make is assuming that the economy and the stock market are one in the same, but they are not, indeed.

There are some tailwinds, the biggest being the trillions of dollars being printed by the global central banks â€" much of which is or will be finding its way into the stock markets. Also, due to historically low interest rates, the aforementioned $5 trillion sitting in cash is earning basically nothing. It won't stay there very long, as we are already seeing signs that some of that cash is being deployed into the stock markets or buying hard assets such as gold. Should I advise you to buy something, I would tell you to buy gold in the current context, still regarded as the safest of assets, despite the recent surge in gold prices.





scarface

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

The cac 40 is up 1.2% at 5155 points and the Dax is up 1.75% at 13280 points. The S&p 500 futures are up 0.70% at 3268 points.
After the recent rally, it turns out that stocks are expensive, at least it is the case on the American market. Therefore, I advise you to sell stocks and take profit.