Documentaries

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Maybe some of you know the Baywatch TV series. I assume that Maher and usmangujjar were huge fans in the 90’s.
If Vasudev or humbert don’t know this series, you can see the credit openings here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Epz2D5cW7Ss

I’m talking about this series because there are currently huge fires in California.
The town of Paradise is already destroyed and Malibu is threatened. About two-thirds of the city of Malibu was ordered evacuated early Friday as a ferocious Southern California’s wildfire roared toward the beachside community that is home for many Hollywood celebrities.


A wildfire comes down from a hilltop Thursday, Nov. 8, 2018, near Newbury Park, Calif. The Ventura County Fire Department has ordered evacuation of some communities in the path of the fire, which erupted a few miles from the site of Wednesday night's deadly mass shooting at a Thousand Oaks bar

In September, the Mendocino Complex Fire was under control after nearly two months of struggle. It had ravaged nearly 190,000 hectares, becoming the largest forest fire in California in recent history of this state.

North of Sacramento, the Fire Camp Fire devours everything in its path since Thursday morning. Paradise, a town of 26,000, has been partially destroyed. Fueled by high winds, the fire threatens nearly 17,000 homes, according to firefighters.

Medical teams move equipment while the Feather River hospital in Paradise was partially burned.


In the city of Paradise alone, firefighters are already estimating that more than a thousand homes have gone up in flames.


The fire started in the Feather River canyon near Highway 70. It then spread to the west.


Bearadise Hostel, in the city of Paradise, was completely destroyed.


A firefighter tries to control the fire in Paradise.

[scarface]

Here are a few interesting articles, in French.

Comment Trump a décidé de quitter l’accord de Paris sur le climat : le récit de Bob Woodward.
https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2018/11/26/comment-trump-a-decide-de-quitter-l-accord-de-paris-le-recit-de-bob-woodward_5388561_3232.html

Le monde s'éloigne de son objectif de ne pas dépasser 2°C de réchauffement climatique
http://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/2018/11/27/01008-20181127ARTFIG00259-le-monde-s-eloigne-de-son-objectif-de-ne-pas-depasser-2c-de-rechauffement-climatique.php

A Tunis, la visite controversée du prince héritier saoudien « MBS »
https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2018/11/27/a-tunis-la-visite-controversee-du-prince-heritier-saoudien-mbs_5389398_3212.html

Un fournisseur de volailles de l'Elysée pousse un coup de gueule contre Macron.
https://www.capital.fr/economie-politique/un-fournisseur-de-volailles-de-lelysee-pousse-un-coup-de-gueule-contre-macron-1317420

[scarface]

Tonight, I'm going to talk about Syria.

A few months ago, the media were stating that Isis was defeated. But it's not true. 30 000 Isis fighters remains in Iraq and Syria and Isis is well positioned to rebuild. Besides, the caliph has still not been found. Meanwhile, Assad was promoting tourism in Aleppo...
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/assad-regime-promotes-syrias-ruins-in-aleppo-as-tourist-destination-1802648
On an official and authorized website, another video was published recently and it seems the soldiers of Isis are very pissed off. Their cheik seems a bit virulent too. And he looks obese and I guess he must be eating the daily food rations of 20 Syrians.
In the tunnels of the Islamic state, it's probably a major drawback. At the end of the video, the caliph is speaking and no doubt he's recommending him a good surgeon for a gastric stapling surgery procedure. He might lose his head pretty soon otherwise.
The end of the video is particularly violent, and I advise you not to watch it.
https://jihadology.net/2018/11/24/new-video-message-from-the-islamic-state-mesaage-to-the-families-of-the-pkk-prisoners-wilayat-al-sham-al-barakah/

[humbert]

A few months ago, the media were stating that Isis was defeated. But it's not true. 30 000 Isis fighters remains in Iraq and Syria and Isis is well positioned to rebuild. Besides, the caliph has still not been found.

Terrorist organization like ISIS never go away completely. Here in the USA the Ku Klux Klan isn't totally dead. There are still Nazis and Communists in Europe and elsewhere. As long as these people don't represent a serious threat everything is OK. If ISIS tries to regroup they'll be squashed once again. Fighting against the entire world and expecting to win is sheer lunacy.

As for Assad, he enjoys the luxury of having Russia and Iran win the war for him. I don't know why I keep thinking that if Assad were overthrown, an even worse government will come to power. History is full of examples.

[scarface]

Here is an interesting article about the Gaza strip:
https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2018/11/30/palestine-noces-ruineuses-a-gaza_5390601_3210.html

We learn that in Gaza, weddings are paid on borrowed money.
In the Palestinian territory under Israeli-Egyptian siege, thousands of families in financial distress are unable to repay their debts.

[humbert]

We learn that in Gaza, weddings are paid on borrowed money.
In the Palestinian territory under Israeli-Egyptian siege, thousands of families in financial distress are unable to repay their debts.

I can't understand these people. Having elaborate ceremonies for weddings is useless and a totally unnecessary waste of money, even more so if you just plain can't afford it. If they gave this some thought they'd live in the real world and not be tied down by tradition or cultural constraints.

I don't know what the divorce rate is in Gaza, but here in the USA it's about 50% last I heard.

[scarface]

Tonight, an exceptional conference is taking place on the forum about "Degrowth". I've translated articles and gathered information, I hope there is no grammar or spelling mistake. The scholars of the forum like humbert, Vasudev or akaubee are invited to react to this conference.




The growth, an old moon to forget ?
Economic expansion being no longer able to reduce inequalities and fueling global warming, the debate on post-growth resurfaces.

For Camille Grandjean, it starts with a simple question about supermarket products: "Do I really need it? At home, this is followed by a series of small actions: limiting waste, recovering some of the shower water to water the plants. "I also make a lot of my cosmetics and household products," says the 34-year-old nurse at the University Hospital of Nice. I have always been sensitive to ecology, but my path towards decreasing has been very gradual. "
Her children still struggle to convert to the white clay toothpaste they are preparing, but they support her. Just like her husband. "I live more in coherence with my ideals," she explains, "before nuancing: even if I am still in the middle of a contradiction. Because some habits are more difficult to let go than others, confides the one who "confesses" to own an iPhone.
In a few days the COP24 on global warming will be held in Katowice (Poland) from December 2 to 14, and these questions and doubts torment more and more people.
At least those who were shocked by the resignation of Nicolas Hulot of the Ministry of the ecological and solidarity transition, and scared by the lack of commitment of governments.
Those, finally, that the multiplication of the alarmist reports on the climatic disorder caused by the human activity questions:
how to come out of a model that, if nothing changes, will lead us into the wall? How to change our lifestyles and consumption habits to limit our impact on the environment? And this, while the episode of "yellow vests" has brutally highlighted how delicate the ecological transition is when it is not accompanied by social justice. The debate is emerging even within the Church, usually not involved in the economic debate. "The time has come to go towards a certain decline, "said Pope Francis in the encyclical Laudato si, in 2015." The climate and social emergency is such that the society is willing to find another model", notes Eddy Fougier, political scientist, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS). Even though this is not yet visible on a large scale, practices are changing. "

"An UMBRELLA CONCEPT"
However, thinking about the environmental misdeeds of growth is not new. It began in the early 1970s, around the Meadows report entitled The Limits of Growth (1972) for the Club of Rome, calling for curbing economic expansion, and written by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen. This statistician was one the first to emphasize that an infinite development of activity is incompatible with a world where, by definition, natural resources are limited.
In France, those who are sensitive to these ideas have gradually regrouped during the 2000s under the banner of "degrowth", based on a critique of the consumer society and liberalism. Today, they form a current crossed by several theoretical schools. In Europe and in the United States, some people also work on this subject. "Degrowth is an umbrella concept, both political, economic and social, and includes several more or less radical ideas, "says Giorgos Kallis, an economist specialized in ecology at the Autonomous University of Barcelona.
Some of them reject violently the notions of "green growth" and "Sustainable development", judging them as a marketing stalemate hindering real change. Other estimate On the contrary that all means to transform our lifestyles are good to follow. Some, again, insist on the need to curb the growth of the world population. But all agree on one point: the criticism of the gross domestic product (GDP), today at the heart of our public policies.

It is true that in the post-war period, and until the 1980s, economic growth was mechanically translated into increase in well-being, in both industrialized and emerging countries. "But since then, the relationship is no longer true," says Tim Jackson, a professor of sustainable development at Surrey University.
First, because industrial activity generates pollution that further deteriorates the quality of life. In addition, some of the growth is now driven by spending related to problems caused by climate change - floods, droughts, rising waters ... Finally, the fruits of this growth are less and less well distributed among social classes. "Not only does it deteriorate the conditions of life on earth, but it does not allow reduce inequalities and promote well-being ", summarizes Dominique Bourg, philosopher at the University of Lausanne, committed alongside Delphine Batho, the president of Génération Ecologie.

The work of economist Thomas Piketty has also highlighted the increase in inequalities over the last 30 years in developed economies. In particular in the United States, where the share of national income going to 10% of
The wealthiest taxpayers have risen from 34% to 47% since 1980, while it has risen from 33% to 37% in Europe. This is why supporters of another model suggest changing the compass. And giving priority, instead of GDP, to a set of indicators to measure the degree of equality, health and carbon footprint. Above all, they call on governments to no longer base their strategy on the quest for growth, but rather that of the well-being of the population. "It involves transforming individual behaviors, but also how the state, taxation, and social systems work.  How? By increasing taxes on fossil fuels in order to accelerate the development of renewable energies,
or goods and services that have a negative impact on the environment. By raising taxes on wealthy households to limit inequalities.
In September, these questions were debated in the European Parliament at a conference devoted to "post-growth". The first of its kind, celebrated as a great advance by the movement. In the process, François Ruffin, the French deputy for France, made a long speech in front of the National Assembly, describing the economic expansion as a "scam": "You will depict your growth with all the adjectives of the world - green, sustainable ... Who will believe that we will produce more and pollute less? But beyond that, these ideas still struggle to find a serious echo in the political arena, where the fundamental debate on the socio-economic model remains difficult. Moreover, Its supporters are often caricatured as sweet crazy advocating the return to the candle, or moralizing technophobes tightening their belts. This may be due to the vocabulary they use. Originally conceived as a good marketing move, the word degrowth, evokes regression and withdrawal, and not a dream.
"Any political proposal from a movement by this name will be ignored or rejected by political and economic leaders," says physicist Dennis Meadows. Conscious of this limit, its promoters try to replace it with notions such as a-growth or post-growth. And insist on the positive spin-offs that a change of model would generate: relocations in the face of globalization, cooperatives in the face of competition...

But the skepticism that arises from their proposals is not just about semantics. Many economists outside the movement believe it is lack of realism and therefore difficult to apply. "With equal world GDP, a better distribution of wealth between continents would imply a decline in income in rich countries that would not be socially accepted. In addition, doing better using less resources can be done in the context of growth, "said Alexandre Delaigue, economist at the University of Lille-I. "In theory, going to post-growth is quite simple, but it gets complicated when you get down to the practical matters, recognizes Fabrice Flipo, philosopher of science and technology, environmental risk specialist."
Admittedly, the academic research devoted to the subject is expanding. But without a turnkey solution, it’s difficult to be heard by the greatest number. Especially since the movement suffers from a self-esteem. "White and over-educated people are clearly over-represented for Vincent Liegey, coordinator of the collective organization of international conferences on degrowth.
Moreover, the change comes up against a generational gap. "Questioning growth is difficult to apprehend in those aged over 50, raised during the" thirty glorious ". The majority of them are at the head of companies, large administrations and in political circles. So they basically have no interest in reforming the system. "There is no political relay to change the number of its initiatives that abound at the local level, "regrets Mr. Bourg.
Even those who want it face a big problem: that of time. Measures likely to limit global warming will have a tangible effect only in several decades, while most are very costly in the short term. "No party will win an election with such a program," says Mr. Meadows, pessimistically. Others, like Trebeck, remain convinced that changes can happen faster than people think. "They will go through the new generations, who have not grown up in the myth of happy growth," says the young woman. It is they who will transform the heart of the system. "

[scarface]

Tonight, an article of the New York Times will be discussed.

Maybe some of you heard of the Paris agreement about climate change.
The New York Times released an interesting article, where it states that 3 years after nearly 200 countries signed a landmark climate agreement in Paris, they are still far off-track from preventing severe global warming in the decades ahead.
The article does not precise it, but emissions in Europe kept increasing, and the black sheep is...France. Its CO2 emissions rose by...3% in 2017. It’s a paradox for a country which hosted the conference about climate change.
But the bad students are the Asian countries. If globally emissions are still increasing, it’s essentially due to 2 countries in Asia, India and China.
As for The US, The Trump Administration has spent 2018 systematically gutting US federal climate policy. If the proposed actions are fully implemented, greenhouse gas emissions projections for the year 2030 could increase by up to 400 MtCO2e over what was projected when Pres. Trump entered office. That’s almost as much as the entire state of California emitted in 2016.
And yet, the US could be considered as the good student, since it had in 2017 the largest decline in CO2 emissions in the world for 9th time this century.
Here is a link for the article of the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/07/climate/world-emissions-paris-goals-not-on-track.html

[scarface]

Here are a few interesting articles released today...


Climate Negotiators Reach an Overtime Deal to Keep Paris Pact Alive
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/climate/cop24-katowice-climate-summit.html

France 'yellow vest' protesters defy government to gather
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46577598

Yemen war: Can ceasefire deal finally bring peace ?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-46575544

[scarface]

Tonight, I'm going to hold a conference about Mozambique. Maybe some of you know this country, located in Africa.




Mozambique in the hell of debt

Mozambique has increased infrastructure spending and concealed the cost. It is now the most indebted country of Africa and plunges into the crisis.

Leaning on a barrier at the end of the pier, Henrique Maundzi nonchalantly watches the passengers get on his boat. Behind him stands, majestically, a bridge, with gigantic dimensions, which spans the bay of Maputo, the capital of Mozambique. For the boatman, who has been transporting hundreds of people from one bank to another for ten years, this bridge, just inaugurated, has all the signs of a Nemesis: "Passenger traffic has decreased by 75% since its opening" he explains, while his boat, with ten seats, is filling up in dribs ad drabs. Nevertheless, the forty-year-old can not help but feel a certain pride. "Yes, we have fewer people ... But that's it, development. And not all countries have that!".

Open to traffic on November 10, the book aligns the records. Largest infrastructure erected in Mozambique since independence in 1975, it is also, according to its promoters, the longest suspension bridge in Africa, with its 3 kilometers long. Its price is also colossal: 785 million dollars (688 million euros), of which 85% comes from a Chinese loan, which are added to a mountain of problematic debts. A symbol of the dreams of greatness of a nation ravaged by civil war and blessed by the discovery of immense gas reserves, this bridge has become especially a wake-up call for all of the abysmal debt that curbs the economy.

On Wednesday, December 19, President Filipe Nyusi, in his annual keynote address to Parliament, assured that the state of health of the nation was "stable and inspiring confidence", while avoiding to expand on the subject of debt. Last week, however, his government approved a budget that widens deficits, while the central bank sounded the alarm on the slippage of domestic debt. Mozambique now has the highest public debt, as a share of GDP, of the African continent, rising from 40% of GDP in 2012 to 113% in 2018, according to IMF figures. And It will have to pay 30 million euros of interest per year.