Maher's Digital World

Financial news and stock markets.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #200 on: August 06, 2019, 10:23 AM »
The cac 40 is now...red...I was saying it was only a technical rebound a few hours ago.

Note that I will hold some conferences tonight on the forum.
First and foremost, I will talk about gold. Then I will post a few photos of Saint Etienne. I hope Maher, Vasudev, usman, shadow.97 and aa1234779 will be present.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #201 on: August 06, 2019, 03:47 PM »
Tonight, I'm going to talk about gold and about the reasons why I think its price will rise, at least on the short term.
So, should you bet on the glitter of Keynes’ barbarous relic ?


Gold prices are currently rising as the Fed cut rates and US president signalled fresh trade aggression vis-à-vis China. When risks rise in asset markets, many investors turn to the yellow metal for safety. Of course, gold is no asset, for it yields no returns, even if its capital value could appreciate over time.



Investment advisors over the decades have grown hoarse advising people to stay away from what John Maynard Keynes, no less, described as a “barbarous relic". Money put in gold does little for the economy. Since it has no productive value, it is seen as a dead weight by investors who insist all money should be put to work in generating more of it by way of economic activity that results in jobs and incomes.

However, none of that seems to deter people from buying gold. A glance at the metal’s prices over a century is indicative of a steady increase in demand with occasional slumps. The global reason for this is that gold is seen not just as a safe haven, something that can survive any financial meltdown, but also as a “hedge" against inflation, since its value is expected to rise in line with general price levels. While currencies can easily be debased by excessively loose fiscal and monetary policies, gold supply has natural limits; this means that so long as people want the stuff, its price cannot fall below a certain level. Currently, what with all the global uncertainty, it seems on an incline.

Consider the Indian market: India’s demand for gold jewellery hit a four-year high in the first quarter of 2019 at 125.4 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Traditionally, Indians have been biased towards gold, viewing it from a cultural prism and not just as an investment. It could yet happen that people outgrow gold as a store of value, but that day still looks far away. In the meantime, gold buyers can go buy the precious metal without worrying too much about what their portfolio advisors say.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #202 on: August 07, 2019, 07:29 AM »
As you can see on the graph below, gold broke a resistance at 1475$. We'll stay bullish, the next target is at 1542$.


Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #203 on: August 07, 2019, 07:59 AM »
It seems that the stock markets in the US as well as in Europe remain bearish in the current context.
The Dow Jones futures are losing 278 points right now. The market seems fragile. The cac 40 is only up 25 points, vs 77 points 2 hours ago. It's nosediving again, and maybe it will be red this afternoon.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #204 on: August 07, 2019, 08:28 AM »
If you have currently no stock at all, maybe you can try a first buy on societe generale at 22€. The recent correction made it more reasonably priced, even if it can lower. I still find the stocks of the luxury sector very expensive, even if this remains a growth industry.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #205 on: August 07, 2019, 09:05 AM »
The rebound did not last...



In the meantime, gold is soaring. +2.4% today. I'm wondering if 1542€ is not even too low a target. At this pace, it's 1800$ per ounce by the end of the month.
https://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #206 on: August 07, 2019, 02:45 PM »
Apparently there has been a reversal trend. The Dow Jones ended flat. The cac 40 will be up 0.8% tomorrow.


Note that I've seen a young hoodlum, in a lousy car, listening to bad music. I made a grimace, like mr baboon, to show him I was not into that. He understood that he was obviously no match.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #207 on: August 08, 2019, 08:45 AM »
Today, eramet and societe generale are soaring.
Those who followed my advice are earning money.
I bought more share of societe generale yesterday at 22€. It will be hard to break the thresold of 23€ though. I put a sell order at 22.9€. top of the day: 22.84€...

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #208 on: August 09, 2019, 02:15 AM »
Despite an opening in negative territory this morning in Europe, I think the technical rebound is likely to continue today. I have a target at 5400 for the cac and 26500 for the Dow Jones before a probable trend reversal. If the Cac 40 goes back to 5400, maybe you can try to buy the short tracker BX4. And if you are a really aggressive trader (you want to bet on the fall of the S&P 500 and a rise in the $/€ pair, you can try the DSP5 (you have to include the currency risk in your strategy).
Note that I sold Eramet above 41€. In the current context, I will only come back if there is another decline in the stock price. As for Socgen, I'm reducing the position at 23€.
Note that I'm staying bullish on gold.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 02:19 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #209 on: August 09, 2019, 05:04 AM »
Visibly, there is no "technical rebound", I was wrong.


The cac 40 is sinking.