Maher's Digital World

Financial news and stock markets.

Online scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #210 on: August 15, 2019, 03:24 AM »
I still see a lot of bearishness in the markets. This morning, the European markets are red, despite a positive opening. The Cac 40 and the Dax are both declining by 0.10%.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Online scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #211 on: August 15, 2019, 04:52 AM »
The cac 40 is nosediving. It's now losing roughly 1% amid plunging treasury yields.

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #212 on: August 19, 2019, 02:47 AM »
Note that once again, I advise you to take advantage of the technical rebound to sell some stocks. I sold a few societe generale this morning. The futures on the Dow Jones are up 200 points. In my opinion it won't last and the European markets will follow, the upward trend will decrease.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

In the current context, we'll remain bullish on gold.
Growing global recession fears could push gold prices to $1,600 an ounce or even higher, according to UBS as it updates its gold forecast for the rest of the year.
In a research note released Thursday, Joni Teves, strategist at the Swiss Bank, said that she is increasing her bullish outlook on gold as uncertainty grips financial markets. She said that investors are turning to the yellow metal as the U.S.-China trade war slows economic growth and central banks look to embrace more dovish monetary policies.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 02:52 AM by scarface »

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #213 on: August 19, 2019, 06:44 AM »
On the current levels, I advise you to turn bearish on the US stock markets, with a first target at 2800 points on the s&p 500, especially since the $ is likely to keep rising versus the Euro.
For the European markets, it seems the rebound is not over, and they are less expensive as you can see on the pictures below (the PE for the US is 25% higher than the average European PE).

In the world, only the Indian and New Zealand markets are more expensive (higher price earning ratio).



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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #214 on: August 20, 2019, 04:21 AM »
Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

In my opinion, the technical rebound will be over pretty soon. On the cac 40, besides the banking sector which has undergone a sharp correction over the last year, the market is still expensive.


The €/$ is at 1.1079 and gold at 1503$ per ounce. Let's stay bearish on the euro and bullish on gold.

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #215 on: August 20, 2019, 08:48 AM »
The cac 40 is now tumbling 0.6%.
As you know I'm particularly bearish on the s&p500 since I think it has the biggest downside potential.

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #216 on: August 20, 2019, 03:54 PM »
Well, it seems I was right when I was saying that the technical rebound was over on both the cac 40 and the s&p 500 a few hours ago. The s&p 500 ended down 0.79%.
In my opinion, we are going to continue the bearish trend that began early August. The first target on the s&p 500 is at 2865 points. And below this level, supports are much lower.
As far as gold is concerned, I still see a lot of bullishness on the yellow metal. Note that barrick gold soared today (+3.37%). Agnico and Newmont goldcorp were up too.
https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures

« Last Edit: August 20, 2019, 03:56 PM by scarface »

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #217 on: August 23, 2019, 07:22 AM »
Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the markets.

The cac40, the european markets and the s&p 500 futures collapsed suddenly as China slaps tariffs on $75B of U.S. goods.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/
This is the latest in the ongoing trade war Opens a New Window.  as the United States prepares to place tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods in September.

This "reinforces America's perception of China as a bad actor" said Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro immediately after the tariffs were announced.
Earlier in the morning, Hu Xijin, editor in chief at the Chinese state-run Global Times tweeted: “China has ammunition to fight back. The US side will feel the pain.”

With such news, gold passed 1500$ again. As for the Euro, it's at a one year low at 1.1065$.
As far as the s&p 500 is concerned, it is completely nosediving at 2906 points. I still have a target below 2800.
In this context, we stay bullish on gold.

Note that the new editions of windows 10 and 7 will be available by the end of the week.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 07:35 AM by scarface »

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #218 on: August 25, 2019, 02:48 AM »
Today, I'm going to talk about the economic situation.



As global economic picture dims, solutions seem out of reach.

As global leaders gather on two continents to take account of a darkening economic outlook, this is the picture they face:
Factories are slumping, many businesses are paralyzed, global growth is sputtering and the world’s two mightiest economies are in the grip of a dangerous trade war.

Barely a year after most of the world’s major countries were enjoying an unusual moment of shared prosperity, the global economy may be at risk of returning to the rut it tumbled into after the financial crisis of 2007-2009.

Worse, solutions seem far from obvious. Central banks can’t just slash interest rates. Rates are already ultra-low. And even if they did, the central banks would risk robbing themselves of the ammunition they would need later to fight a recession. High government debts make it politically problematic to cut taxes or pour money into new bridges, roads and other public works projects.

There’s a Group of Seven summit this weekend in Biarritz, France. If you want to test your optimism, take a second to study the family portrait. You will be looking at most of the generals who will lead the response to the next international economic crisis, should we have one in the next few months.

It’s hard to imagine the G7 reprising its heroics today. This year’s assembly includes too many saboteurs to be taken seriously as rescue team.

Germany is on the brink of recession. It has a huge trade surplus that implies it could be a bigger source of global demand, and it borrows for essentially nothing. Yet it still refuses to cut taxes or attempt any other form of fiscal stimulus out of fear of running a budget deficit.

Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, is bent on quitting the European Union on Oct. 31, come what may. Italy’s most powerful politician, Matteo Salvini, leader of the populist League party, chose this moment to trigger a political crisis, even though the International Monetary Fund reckons his country is teetering on the edge of its own downturn.

And of course, the G7 has done nothing to contain the biggest threat to the global economy, even though he has attended the meetings annually since being elected president of the United States in 2016. Stocks dropped (again) on Friday after Donald Trump tweeted that “we don’t need China” and the U.S. would be “better off without them.” He was commenting on the publication of the American imports that China will punish if the White House goes ahead with new duties on Chinese goods.

Trump’s trade wars have sucked the life out of the global economy, and America’s allies have proven powerless to do anything about it. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in Montreal this week that he would tell the G7 that, “we need to build a future where everyone can benefit from economic growth and where we invest to help the middle class,” a nice thought that will change nothing, since Angela Merkel, Johnson, Salvini and Trump all think their self-centred approaches to economic policy will achieve the same thing.

This is troubling because the politicians won’t be able to hide behind their central bankers when the next economic crisis hits.

In the aftermath of Lehman Brothers, the G7 finance ministers blew the battle horn, and the G20 implemented a co-ordinated round of fiscal stimulus. But it was the central banks that did the real work. They slashed benchmark interest rates across the board, and some of the biggest banks created trillions of dollars to buy bonds and other financial assets. They made mistakes, but if the mission was to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression, the effort was a clear success.

Central banks won’t be able to respond to the next downturn with the same degree of force. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate was around five per cent on the eve of the financial crisis; it’s 2.25 per cent now. Benchmark rates in Europe are near zero or even negative in some cases. The firepower just isn’t there.

So fiscal policy will need to play a greater role, and that’s a problem. Some of the bigger economies are carrying a lot of debt, which could tie the hands of a few important finance ministries.

The bigger issue is the state of politics in so many countries. Central banks are first up in a crisis because they can deploy so much faster. Fiscal policy must go through a design stage and approvals before the money is spent and begins rippling through the economy. Months would pass before the money hit the economy — under the best-case scenarios.

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #219 on: August 25, 2019, 07:35 AM »
For Monday, the futures are indicating a big decline for the American markets. On Friday morning, when the s&p 500 was at 2930, I was talking about a target at 2800 points. We'll be near this level on Monday morning, probably 2815 or 2820 points, if nothing changes.


Below 2800 points on the s&p 500, another financial market slump is probable.