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Financial news and stock markets.

Started by scarface, February 26, 2015, 08:28 PM

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scarface

#180
Tonight, the Dow Jones is dropping 700 points. The target at 25800 points was reached, since it broke that level.
The reaction of the market is going to be interesting now. I think that tomorrow will be red once again on the European indexes, following the rout of Wall Street (We'll see that tonight at 4pm in the US). Maybe there could be a moment of sheer panick tomorrow and a sell off (25 000 for the Dow and 5100 for the cac). But then a small rebound may take place...But on the long term, I think it's time to get a bit bearish, with the Chinese slowdown and some mixed results in Europe (for car makers and retailers for example).

As expected, Gold stocks are literally exploding upward.



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scarface

Tonight, the Dow Jones dived 861 points as trade war worsens.
U.S. stocks nosedived as China's currency fell sharply and stoked fears that the trade war between the U.S. and China will again escalate.
Maher and usman are probably wondering how the Palestinian or the Pakistani stock exchange are going to react tomorrow. I don't know. In Palestine the goat traders are certainly going to shrug off these issues. But as far as the European markets are concerned, the storm is far from over.


scarface

#182
A crack is likely to happen tomorrow morning. Right now the Dow Jones is losing 445 points according to the futures.
Fortunately I have a big coverage with Gold stocks (35000â,¬ !) with significant capital gains. But I still have a "small position" on Socgen (15000â,¬) and Eramet (4000â,¬) with significant losses. However, I kept those positions because they were losing. Since the beginning of the year, I didn't make any "losing trade". And the position on socgen sold a few days ago was a winning trade too. Actually, I think that I couldn't have taken a better decision, regarding what happened on the markets.
I will tell you tomorrow morning before the opening of the markets (7am GMT) what I'm buying, and if I'm buying something.

scarface

#183
This morning the futures were not red any more. Therefore I didn't see any opportunity on the markets.
Eramet seems to be a good bet at the current price for those who want to buy sth, as long as the level of the 38â,¬ withstands. Look at the Nickel price since early July: https://fr.investing.com/commodities/nickel?cid=959208

Rno stock is up 2%. It was a mistake to sell yesterday. if the cac loses 50 points to go below 5200 today, maybe I'll come back to say what to buy (to sum up the situation in French: "on achètera si ça se pète la gueule").

scarface

Note that I sold some Eramet (half of the positions, the ones bought yesterday). My Stategy is not "buy and hold". Actually, I think it's only a technical rebound" and I advise you to sell some stocks too, the cac 40 is up 0,89% right now.
I expect societe generale to return below 22â,¬ to buy back some stocks.
I'm still bullish on Gold and bearish on the â,¬/$ pair.

scarface

The cac 40 is now...red...I was saying it was only a technical rebound a few hours ago.

Note that I will hold some conferences tonight on the forum.
First and foremost, I will talk about gold. Then I will post a few photos of Saint Etienne. I hope Maher, Vasudev, usman, shadow.97 and aa1234779 will be present.

scarface

Tonight, I'm going to talk about gold and about the reasons why I think its price will rise, at least on the short term.
So, should you bet on the glitter of Keynes’ barbarous relic ?


Gold prices are currently rising as the Fed cut rates and US president signalled fresh trade aggression vis-à-vis China. When risks rise in asset markets, many investors turn to the yellow metal for safety. Of course, gold is no asset, for it yields no returns, even if its capital value could appreciate over time.



Investment advisors over the decades have grown hoarse advising people to stay away from what John Maynard Keynes, no less, described as a “barbarous relic". Money put in gold does little for the economy. Since it has no productive value, it is seen as a dead weight by investors who insist all money should be put to work in generating more of it by way of economic activity that results in jobs and incomes.

However, none of that seems to deter people from buying gold. A glance at the metal’s prices over a century is indicative of a steady increase in demand with occasional slumps. The global reason for this is that gold is seen not just as a safe haven, something that can survive any financial meltdown, but also as a “hedge" against inflation, since its value is expected to rise in line with general price levels. While currencies can easily be debased by excessively loose fiscal and monetary policies, gold supply has natural limits; this means that so long as people want the stuff, its price cannot fall below a certain level. Currently, what with all the global uncertainty, it seems on an incline.

Consider the Indian market: India’s demand for gold jewellery hit a four-year high in the first quarter of 2019 at 125.4 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Traditionally, Indians have been biased towards gold, viewing it from a cultural prism and not just as an investment. It could yet happen that people outgrow gold as a store of value, but that day still looks far away. In the meantime, gold buyers can go buy the precious metal without worrying too much about what their portfolio advisors say.

scarface

As you can see on the graph below, gold broke a resistance at 1475$. We'll stay bullish, the next target is at 1542$.


scarface

It seems that the stock markets in the US as well as in Europe remain bearish in the current context.
The Dow Jones futures are losing 278 points right now. The market seems fragile. The cac 40 is only up 25 points, vs 77 points 2 hours ago. It's nosediving again, and maybe it will be red this afternoon.

scarface

If you have currently no stock at all, maybe you can try a first buy on societe generale at 22â,¬. The recent correction made it more reasonably priced, even if it can lower. I still find the stocks of the luxury sector very expensive, even if this remains a growth industry.