Maher's Digital World

Financial news and stock markets.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #230 on: August 28, 2019, 07:07 AM »
Today, the cac 40 is down 1.2%.
I advise you to be careful. The  Süddeutsche Zeitung is warning of an imminent financial crisis. In this context, let's stay bullish on gold.
An article here in French: https://m.dw.com/fr/limminence-dune-crise-financi%C3%A8re-majeure/a-50187859

The cac 40: https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #231 on: August 29, 2019, 05:06 AM »
A few months ago, I talked about uber here: http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg34227#msg34227
And I was pessimistic concerning the stock price. I hope you listened to my advice. It lost 20% over the last week, at 32.59$. I was talking about a halving of the stock price. The target is 22$ !

Yesterday the US market rebounded. The futures are indicating they will be up today too. On such levels, 2910 for the s&p 500, I'm bearish.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #232 on: August 29, 2019, 04:50 PM »
Tonight, new and reposted videos are available for the users of the forum.


Repost:
Hulot – break the internet (with English subtitles)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKLWW_j4a_E

Angel, the best dancer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyOasG6i-hA


New:
Michel Onfray on Muslims and Sharia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkOUBc4lR_w

Valuation Is More Important Than Politics or Interest Rates: And Most Stocks Are Overvalued Today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n55zTkpUUT0

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #233 on: September 02, 2019, 03:41 PM »
Tonight, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

The s&p 500 futures are currently indicating a stock market decline of 0.7% for tomorrow.
After the recent technical rebound, I think it's wise to keep the same strategy: be bearish on the market and bullish on gold.


I'm going to talk about the biotech company Pharnext. And the question is pretty simple: To buy or not to buy?
Shadow.97 or humbert have probably no clues about it.
To put it simply: the stock price fell by over 55% over the last week. Is it going to the cellar, or will there be a small technical rebound? In my opinion, it can be interesting to buy now, for a technical rebound of 5-10%, even if in the medium term, I think the stock will slide down further towards 4€.
https://www.zonebourse.com/PHARNEXT-29750723/

Last week, Pharnext’s hopes of a quick approval for its Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease project PXT3003 have been dashed by the US FDA. The agency’s request for a second phase III study of the asset could have been foreseen after formulation issues halted the high-dose arm of the previous trial, Pleo-CMT; this was the only dose to show a significant benefit on the primary and secondary endpoints. Still, Pharnext’s stock was down as much as 42% on Friday, below its price when the company reported the first phase III data last October. Pharnext has not given details of the new trial’s design, but there must be worries about whether the group can complete it: Pleo-CMT took three years to yield data, and Pharnext had just €32m ($35m) in cash at the end of March. PXT3003, a combination of baclofen, naltrexone and sorbitol, is in a long-term follow-up study set to yield data later this year. The company is also seeking a fast approval for PXT3003 in Europe, but it now looks likely that regulators there will also request another study. According to EvaluatePharma the only other prominent project in clinical development for Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease is Acceleron’s ACE-083, which is in phase II.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 03:45 PM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #234 on: September 03, 2019, 09:12 AM »
-0.84% on the cac40.
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/indices/cours/1rPCAC/

Be very careful, the levels of the stock markets are still high, and the next crack may indeed be imminent.
Note that I had some Pharnext stocks. Like I said yesterday, I was expecting a rebound. It took place (+6.5% right now) and I sold my position. If the stock goes below 5€, I'll come back later.
https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPALPHA/

In this context gold is up 1.6% at 1545$.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2019, 09:24 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #235 on: September 07, 2019, 05:58 AM »
Today, I'm going to talk about the future of cash.

Many countries have become cashless. It's the case in Sweden and Palestine. shadow.97 and Maher can confirm it.
It's also the case in the United Kingdom: Royal Mint Makes No New 1p, 2p or £2 Coins, As Britons Ditch Cash.



For the first time in decades the Royal Mint has struck no new 1p, 2p, or £2 coins, reflecting changes in the way Britons pay for goods and services.

2018-19 was the first year since 1972 no new 1p coins have entered circulation and the first year since 1984 there are no new 2p coins. The Royal Mint also issued no new £2 coins.

The Royal Mint releases new coins under instruction from the Treasury, which responds to demand from banks and Post Offices. In a typical year, it issues around 100 million new 1p coins.

But last year, it found there were already enough of these denominations in circulation. That’s more than 11 billion 1p coins, around 2.5 billion 2p coins, and 494 million £2 coins.

Although billions of copper coins will continue to roll around in our bags and fall between couch cushions, their future is in question. Last year Chancellor Philip Hammond announced in his spring statement that the Treasury would be reviewing cash and digital payments and the use of coins. It said it didn’t make economic sense to expensively produce coins and notes that were used infrequently.

The Treasury found that 60% of copper coins are used for just one transaction, before being stowed away, in wallets or piggy banks, or lost.

But after a media campaign and protests from charities, which rely on bucket collections, the government affirmed that it had had no plans to scrap 1p and 2p coins.





Offline humbert

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #236 on: September 07, 2019, 08:51 PM »
Today, I'm going to talk about the future of cash.
Many countries have become cashless. It's the case in Sweden and Palestine. shadow.97 and Maher can confirm it.

In this country it won't happen any time soon. In order for this to work, everyone at the very least needs a bank account. Without it, using a debit card or Android/Google/Apple pay isn't possible. Not everybody has one, nor does everyone has a cell phone. There are also many people whose credit is so bad they don't qualify for a credit card and would have a hard time getting a debit card.

I'm not familiar with what's happening in Sweden or Palestine. I believe that pulling this off in Sweden is more possible than it is here. Sweden is a very advanced country with virtually no poverty. Palestine is a different story. The level of poverty is much higher, not to mention they're under Israeli occupation.Maher can't even get his own PayPal account.

Clearly governments are very interested in getting rid of cash. It'll put a serious dent in tax evasion and drug trafficking, which rely heavily on cash. Even if they resort to cryptocurrency, how many merchants accept Bitcoin, let alone all the others? Nothing will happen if Bitcoin remains as unstable as it is now.


Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #237 on: September 08, 2019, 05:11 PM »
Tonight I'm going to talk about the stock markets.
I think it's time to be cautious.

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson — who has mostly been bearish on stocks the last year — nicely lays out the case for investors to approach September and year end with caution.

For starters, the global manufacturing recession is getting next level worse. Wilson notes that 70% of purchasing managing indexes (PMIs) — a key gauge on the manufacturing sector’s health — globally are below the 50 level that separates contraction from expansion. Wilson says he hasn’t seen these types of readings since the 2008-9 financial crisis.

To that end, the Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday its PMI index dove to 49.1 in August. That was below the important 50 level and much worse than market expectations. It also marked the first time in contraction zone since 2016. New orders within the PMI report dropped to a seven-year low.

Besides weakening manufacturing conditions (insert trade war aftershocks), which is creating downside momentum to GDP readings from Germany to the U.S., Wilson says Wall Street profit estimates are beginning to come under pressure. By extension, stock prices have to adjust for this one.

S&P 500 profit estimates for the third quarter call for a 2.7% decline, worse than the 0.5% decline seen in the first half of the year. Wilson notes for the S&P 500, profits are seen diving 7.4% in the third quarter compared to a 5% decline in the first six months of the year.

Wilson expects the S&P 500 to drop about 10% to 2,700 by year end. He recommends investors stay positioned in defensive stocks such as consumer staples and utilities.

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #238 on: September 10, 2019, 05:22 PM »
Tonight, I'm going to talk about the overvaluation of the US markets with the analysis of John Early, who is an independent advisor. He's talking about a super Bubble.


According to Early, the United States probably reached the high-water mark of its economic place in the world in the early 1950s with close to half the world's GDP and perhaps 80% of the wealth. Since then, the U.S. economy has mostly grown slower than the world. In dollar terms, 2018 U.S. GDP was about 23.9% of the world's GDP. In purchasing power parity ("PPP") terms, we are about 15.2% and China is the largest economy at 19.2%. The US share of global stock market capitalization is around 43%. With a much smaller share of the world's economic pie and faster growth abroad, 43% of the stock market pie is not justified.

Since reaching about a 20-year low in U.S. stock market relative performance in June 2008, the U.S. market has outperformed the rest of the world by about 173% or about 7.5% a year. During this 11-year stock market romp, the US economy held on to its dollar share of the pie, but declined from the 17.6% PPP share in 2008.

Using Morgan Stanley Capital International data ("MSCI") for the 43 developed and emerging stock markets and a valuation measure comparable to the PEses above, the U.S. is the most richly/overvalued stock market in the world.

Using monthly data, he thinks that model valuation suggests the market has already peaked and will trend down through September 2021 and then have a brief sharp advance to July 2022, before resuming a downtrend.



And he states "If we are in a super-bubble, as I believe, and the conviction the U.S. is a safe haven changes, it's possible the U.S. (SPY) could be the worst-performing country in the next year or two. I believe America is headed for an economic and political crisis. The euphoria of elites pulling trillions of extra dollars out of businesses as personal income and bidding asset prices above historical levels will precipitate a crisis. Yet, I expect the U.S. stock market performance will be closer to the middle of the pack in the next year or two. The following countries will likely have larger declines: Thailand (THD), Austria (EWO), Italy (EWI), New Zealand (ENZL), China (MCHI), Japan (EWJ), Sweden (EWD), Taiwan (EWT), Indonesia (EIDO) and Turkey (TUR)."

And here is a link for another article where he's talking about profit collapse...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4255859-coming-profit-collapse
Latest data shows he could be right: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/24/analysts-now-expect-the-earnings-recession-to-last-through-the-third-quarter.html


In this context, I advise you to be cautious with stocks. I also advise you to take advantage of the recent gold stocks pullback to buy some of them. I still have a target at 70$ for Agnico Eagle mines for example.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 05:28 PM by scarface »

Offline scarface

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Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #239 on: September 12, 2019, 08:09 AM »
Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the financial markets.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that the euro zone economy was in a period of “protracted” economic weakness, with inflation staying low and the balance of risks tilted towards the downside.
He cut interest rates further into negative territory. The euro skidded below $1.10.

In this context, Newmont Goldcorp, Agnico and Barrick Gold are up 3% in premarket.
The markets are up and yet I still advise you to be cautious and essentially bearish since we are entering an era without growth.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2019, 08:11 AM by scarface »