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[humbert]

I believe Donetsk and Luhansk will be captured in one way or another by Russia. I dont really have any sources, just what I believe.

It's my understanding Donetsk and Luhansk have a high number of Russians living there and is all but occupied, albeit not officially.

[Shadow.97]

I believe Donetsk and Luhansk will be captured in one way or another by Russia. I dont really have any sources, just what I believe.

It's my understanding Donetsk and Luhansk have a high number of Russians living there and is all but occupied, albeit not officially.

... I feel like my belief came true.  Maybe I should start selling future predictions for money?

[humbert]

... I feel like my belief came true.  Maybe I should start selling future predictions for money?

Kudos to you! I'll tell you one thing: you're a better man than I am (seriously!).

[scarface]

Note that a stock market crash could be underway: Poutine asked Ukraine to surrender: the Russian soldiers are ready for an invasion. Apparently some explosions were heard in the region of Kiev.
Following this announcement, the Dow Jones Futures are losing nearly 1000 points and the Cac 40 is down 250 points in premarket stock trading.

[Daniil]

Invasion started. Looks like it'd be more destructive for Russia than for Ukraine. Because:
1) All banking system will be vulnerable - we'll get a lot of troubles with payments and transactions even in Russia.
2) Russian economy will fall "to the center of Earth" - since morning already we have fall of prices of biggest russian companies on markets at about 75%, and RUR/USD ratio grown about 1/3 in a few hours. That means that for ordinary peoples all prices in stores will rise.
3) Probably, all modern electronics will be unaccessible for years.
4) Our relatives in Ukraine are vulnerable. Our army strikes very precisely, but, you know, all is possible in a war.
All is bad, very bad.

Update: probably, we'll get a lot of troubles in IT. Stock prices of biggest russian IT companies falls insanely, also, there is rumors that Apple wanted to deny access to it's services for all developers from Russia. I.e., while Putin said in his speeches that we fight to save the greatness of Russia, we got diametrically opposed effect. IT was one of most powerful industry branches in Russia, but now it'll be going to depression. Grandfather (that's how we call now Putin), as expected, know nothing about how things is going in modern tech, and Western countries winnig the informational and economical war now.

[humbert]

Daniil: It's so nice to have you back. We welcome your valued input on this subject. If anybody knows about this and can give us accurate information, it's you.

I read an article today saying that Putin made the same mistake as Tsar Nicholas I. Basically it says that the Tsar started a war to regain the "greatness of Russia" and the whole thing backfired.

I also heard that winning the war against Ukraine will be the easy part. That hard part will be staying there. It's a little like what happened to all foreign armies that have tried to occupy Afghanistan.

I also read that there have been anti-war protest in nearly 47 Russian cities, and all protest have been met with brutal police repression. Clearly the people are very upset.

You are the expert here. What is your opinion regarding these articles?

While I have you on the line, let me ask you this: What exactly is Putin's obsession with NATO? NATO is a product of the cold war and was formed precisely to target the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union no longer exists and I see no reason the Russian Federation should be seen as an enemy. Moreover, there is no possibility of another Operation Barbarrosa. The West is not Nazi Germany and has no interest in such a thing. Even so, the existence of nuclear weapons makes such a thing impossible. I even believe that if somehow Alexei Navalny became president, he's probably have Russia join NATO.

[Daniil]

I read an article today saying that Putin made the same mistake as Tsar Nicholas I. Basically it says that the Tsar started a war to regain the "greatness of Russia" and the whole thing backfired.

What war was mentioned in that article? I can't remember from school course of history, that Nicolas I started wars to regain greatness of Russia. Maybe that was about Nicolas II?

I also heard that winning the war against Ukraine will be the easy part. That hard part will be staying there. It's a little like what happened to all foreign armies that have tried to occupy Afghanistan.

Probably that's not true. Well, russian army is "not so foreign" for Ukraine. Most of us - more of this, most of that guys in invasion forces - have a relatives in Ukraine. You can see yourself, that yesterday it's almost no counterattacks at Ukraine, and almost no casualities from both sides (we lost about 35 men, Ukraine lost about 137, and about 330 men is injured). That's not a war.
Moreover, I think that things are even more difficult. Most of ukrainian business elite are tightly linked to russian business elite (because they learned in the same soviet universities, serviced in the same units of soviet army, and caged in the same prisons). So, when Putin found a casus belli, they probably were warned, and probably got an offer like if they will calmly integrating in russian economy and will not interfere to remove the unwanted for Russia part of ukrainian government, they will have their businesses untouched. So they just betrayed other part of ukrainian elite, and, when invasion will be finished, will become new puppet government of Ukraine.

I also read that there have been anti-war protest in nearly 47 Russian cities, and all protest have been met with brutal police repression. Clearly the people are very upset.

Yes, there was some protests. But I don't support them. It's sad that people are now arrested, but in such hard situation as today, it's a bad time to protest. The opposition must been more active much, much earlier (in that case Russia even may been avoid  invasion to Ukraine)

While I have you on the line, let me ask you this: What exactly is Putin's obsession with NATO? NATO is a product of the cold war and was formed precisely to target the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union no longer exists and I see no reason the Russian Federation should be seen as an enemy. Moreover, there is no possibility of another Operation Barbarrosa. The West is not Nazi Germany and has no interest in such a thing. Even so, the existence of nuclear weapons makes such a thing impossible. I even believe that if somehow Alexei Navalny became president, he's probably have Russia join NATO.

That's not an obsession. NATO was built as a military alliance (an instrument of collective defence!) against Soviet Union. When US won the Cold War, and USSR fallen, NATO must been disbanded by itself (trouble doesn't exist anymore, so an instrument is useless). But that wasn't done! Why? Well, probably because NATO is a good political instrument of US to make a pressure to unwanted political regimes. Also, strange, that you don't know, but Russia led the negotiations with NATO to become it's member! That was at early 2000-s (like at 2001, 20 years ago!), and Putin was an initiator of this process. I was about 15 y.o. that time, and I remember that in news on TV Putin himself told that he speak with Clinton about this! I remember it well, because that was a good news at that time. Well, to become part of NATO was a cool idea!

Also, Clinton was supported that idea! But nothing moved far from this, somewhere in US government offices project was stuck.

So, why that all? Maybe, some of corrupted US business elite wanted to have an "outside enemy" to plunder military budgets? Or maybe US, lost in populist internal politics about that BLM, SJW and financial sphere, wanted to fix the troubles (caused by a greed and ineptitude of some US businessmans and politics) by raising panics (based on propaganda about "evil other countries") and escalating military conflicts?
Take a look! I'm an aerospace enthusiast, that's a good area to see the examples of american problems. What spacecraft built US at last 30 years (the country which was most powerfull in aerospace industry)? There is NO spaceships! Musk and SpaceX we don't count, because he is invader at US space market, same as other small players like Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin. But Boeing, Lockheed, Northrop-Grumman, Martin-Marietta - all this corporations, which built Shuttle, Apollo, Saturn 5? They didn't built ANYTHING. In 30 years after Shuttle they not even finished Orion and SLS, and they spent billions of US dollars... for nothing! Where is all this money? In military projects? No, US didn't made any new aerospace weapons in last 20 years. In infrastructure? No, most of industry are moved from US to China. As a result, US, once been a science and technological leader of a planet, today are beaten by China, Japan and Southern Korea, and NASA was for many years forced to bought old rocket engines from Russia and invest in SpaceX, a company founded by guy from SAR, to found a way to transport peoples to orbit without using rusty russian spacecrafts! That isn't normal for US, don't you think?

About "new operation Barbarossa" - oh, yes, West doesn't interested at invasion to Russia. But looks like that some irresponsible people in US government and elite wanted instability in Russia. US never interested to enslave the countries they invades - they are interested to deconstruct them. Take a look to Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya. US doesn't enslave them like german nazis. They just destroy their political systems, throwing them into chaos. From my, an ordinary dweller point of view, it's better with old aggressive dictator like Putin, but with a job, heat in a house and food in a stores, than to run with autogun in a snow steppes and fight with other gangs for food and fuel.

About nuclear weapons - probably you forgot, that by international conventions, tactical nukes are denied. And missile defence system doesn't protect against short-range missiles with nukes. You are correct, that US doesn't fight with Russia, because our nuclear arsenals "complement" each other, and we can't fight directly without unacceptable level of casualties. But when Ukraine president said that they can create short range nuclear weapons (and we know well, that they CAN - because a part of nukes and missiles of Soviet Union was built at Ukraine and by ukrainian scientists), there is a trouble for our russian defence. Because Ukraine is near, it wanted to got US investments, and there is some radical nationalists in its elite, who could try to use this nukes. So, when stupid ukrainian president yapped about nuclear project, he himself gave to Putin a casus belli.

And, finally, about Navalniy. Are you so naive, that you think, that some responsible and lawful men can raise to power in Russia??? No, that's impossible. And Navalniy isn't a good candidature at all. All what he doing is plundering the money of western intelligences and babbling in the internet about corruption. (And corruptioners watching him too and wondering, a they really so bad?! I'm joking here, in fact everybody know that all elite in Russia is corrupted and it's not a news for anybody). In ten years Navalny did NOTHING real - corruption raises even more. Compared to him even Putin and Shoigu are better - because they enforced russian business to invest money into military complex, and ordinary people abled to get some money from this. What will be if Navalny turned into a president? Oh, come on, in a 3 years he will become a dictator even worse than Putin - and much worse, because he is more greedy and less experienced.

[scarface]

Note that a crack should take place today, due to the invasion of Putin. The price of oil is soaring.
If you have money, I dont even advise you to buy stocks. In my opinion, the slowing down of the economy, which started before the invasion of Ukraine, accentuated by the soaring costs of energy, will push stocks lower. In this context, the price of gold could go higher.

[humbert]

Hey Scarface -> I know this is off topic but let me ask anyway. I could have sworn I responded to Daniil's Feb 25 post on this topic, but I'm not seeing it. You know the forum's software better than I do. How do you see what you've posted beginning with last post and going backwards in time? I find it impossible that one of the other moderators deleted it.

[Daniil]

So, invasion is stuck in intermediate phase. As always, our russian forces are fast, but suffers laxity and unorganization. And that's bad, because, first, every next day of conflict raises probability of casualities between civilians, and, second, ukrainian government get a time to enforce nationalistic groups and bandit gangs with weapons. That's really bad, because main goals of this groups are not the defence of invasion of russian army, but a settling scores with their internal enemies. And today this is a main danger for ukrainian civilians.

We, ordinary people, in Russia didn't feel sanctions yet. Most annoying reaction to western actions today is a total panic in russian press and crazy crying of russian intelligentsia. I saw real posts in facebook like "We all will die in nuclear fire! Please, forgive me everyone who I banned. I unbanned all my opponents." and "We will die very soon, so we must make a kind of mark, a relic, a signal for extraterrestrial civilisations who, probably, could find our planet millions years later. We must left any kind of memory about our collapsing civilization."

That all is because of istery, raised in media by western countries. As always, West is much better in informational wars. And a part of russian people already defeated and disoriented by your informational weapons.

Also, war shown real cost of all this intellectuals. They are too isteric and gullible. I'm already much more resistant (not least because of example of mr. Humbert  ).

I expect a very deep recession in russian economy in nearest two month. So, I'm storing a food and thought about buying stocks of big russian IT and private financial companies - because after collapse they'll grow to the sky.