Financial news and stock markets.

[humbert]

Even with your knowledge of economics and even with trends and indicators pointing up or down, there is no solid guarantee the investment will pay off. Either way you look at it, it all boils down to chance. In that regard there isn't much of a difference from casino gambling.

[scarface]

Even with your knowledge of economics and even with trends and indicators pointing up or down, there is no solid guarantee the investment will pay off. Either way you look at it, it all boils down to chance. In that regard there isn't much of a difference from casino gambling.

Once again you're probably right humbert. However I'm trying to maximize my chances of positive returns.
Look at the winning probability below. This is for Euromillion. You don't need to have been awarded the fields medal to understand that the odds of earning money in this game are pretty slim. That's why I rarely play the lottery.


Today, Michelin shed 4% of its value and I lost 1000€. The indefinite closure of Nord Stream 1 sent stock reeling with euro below dollar parity.
You and Maher must be wondering if the donation is being jeopardized because of the stock market fall. The answer is no. I'm going to hold the position, It'll just take time for the share price to recover.

[humbert]

Once again you're probably right humbert. However I'm trying to maximize my chances of positive returns.
Look at the winning probability below. This is for Euromillion. You don't need to have been awarded the fields medal to understand that the odds of earning money in this game are pretty slim. That's why I rarely play the lottery.

If it weren't like that it wouldn't be a lottery. That's how they make money. People who buy lottery tickets buy a dream. I've never bought one in my life.

[scarface]

Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

U.S. stocks whiplashed on Tuesday in a volatile trading session at the start of the holiday-shortened week as investors weighed what strong economic data and rising rates mean for the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening campaign.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 250 points, or 0.80%, climbing off lows of the day boosted by defensive stocks such as Johnson & Johnson and Coca-Cola. The S&P 500 slipped 0.68% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.98%, weighed down by falling tech stocks.

At the same time, bond yields surged, adding to the rout in stocks. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury jumped as much as 0.162 percentage point to 3.353% before settling lower, up around 0.13 percentage point at 3.342% as investors sold bonds. Yields move inversely to prices.

The moves came after August ISM data Tuesday morning was stronger than expected, coming in at 56.9 versus expectations of 55.5. The report follows Friday's jobs release, which also beat Wall Street's expectations, showing a more solid U.S. economy than anticipated.

After a small rebound in Europe, the cac 40 and Dax Futures are down 0,4%.

[scarface]

Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the financial markets.


French stocks were moving lower on Friday, even as a survey showed France's private sector growth unexpectedly improved in September driven by the services activity.
The composite output index rose to 51.2 in September from a 17-month low of 50.4 in August, according to flash survey results from S&P Global. The reading was forecast to fall to 49.8.
The service sector was the sole driver of the expansion in September in a stark contrast to the trend in the manufacturing sector.
The flash services Purchasing Managers' Index advanced to 53.0 from 51.2 in the previous month.
The benchmark CAC 40 fell 2.5 percent, to 5,770 after tumbling 1.87 percent on Thursday.



More news:
- The US housing market is in a recession, and home prices are poised to tumble another 20% by next summer, a top economist has warned. "The plunging trend in sales has further to go, and prices are falling," Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a research note published on Wednesday. Shepherdson and his team estimated that seasonally adjusted existing-home prices slid by 0.7% in August, the third monthly decline in a row. Prices are now down about 5% from their May peak, and are poised to slide further despite a tight supply of homes, they said.


- Oil prices on Friday tumbled to a nine-month low as recession fears swept throughout global risk assets and the US dollar continued this year's ascent to reach a fresh two-decade high against major currencies.

- Russia plans to slash its natural gas exports via pipeline by around 40% over the next three years, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. Moscow will cut gas exports to around 125.2 billion cubic meters in 2023-2025, potentially exacerbating Europe's energy crisis. That's down from an estimated 142 billion cubic meters this year. While the draft budget viewed by Bloomberg doesn't break down flows by different export markets, historic data and current gas flows point to China becoming the second-largest buyer of Russian pipeline gas due to a deal to supply around 21 billion cubic meters through the Power of Siberia pipeline. Meanwhile, Turkey is likely to become the largest client.

A photo of a young girl taking to the streets in London to protest against the policy of Russia.

[scarface]

I had a good week on the stock market and tonight I will tell you what happened since early septembre. You are going to see that you must have a clear mind when you invest.
Maybe I will upload a new movie soon too.

[scarface]

Today, I decided to show you what you should avoid when you invest money, which is averaging down a position. It's better to sell a position if you think you have make a mistake. In this case you are going to see that the end is good but I could have lost money.

Well, I decided to give 100 $ to humbert (he'll share it with Maher). It's not an enormous sum, but it's better than nothing. What's more I mailing since I don't have your bank details and it could be lost. Humbert will remind me his address by pm.
After What I've lived, I guess I can do that.

This year I earnt money on the stock market. I use ucits on a life insurance and since mid 2021, I decided to bet against the market with an inverse ETF (no leverage). I took a first position at 6600 points on the cac 40. At 7300 points I was losing 10% but I kept a cool head and I ended up earning money when the war in Ukraine began, then the cac 40 crumbled, with the other stock markets, and I sold this position. The war in Ukraine was probably a significant catalyst, but the overvaluation of the stock markets was undeniable.
I pursued this strategy successfully after each rebound. I only have a small amount on this life insurance, but it's up 15% this year. I only lost with Michelin (less than 1%, bought at 24,40 sold at 24,18), I just wasn't feeling it any more.
Early September I was willing to take more risks. I invested on Orpea with my trading account. And it's not a discovery for me. But I have to tell you how I turned a catastrophic investment into a capital gain.
I followed the fall of Orpea share price after the nursing home scandal blew up, due to the release of the book "les fossoyeurs". The nursing home of Neuilly Sur Seine, a flagship building for this international group, near l''île de la Jatte, was at the center of the revelations. The stock price was at 90€ in January and after a profit warning I decided to invest in Orpea. The stock was down 15%. I bought 1000 stocks at  17,9€, thinking it was an opportunity (it had already lost 80% since January after all). The stock crumbled and ended the trading session at -25%. A few days later I bought 1000 more shares at 15,1 €. The stock price kept crumbling. At 12.90 € I was already suffering heavy losses but I bought 1000 more shares. I sold them at 13.20 € because I knew at that point that the trend was "rather bearish". In fact, when I began investing in Orpea, I didn't know that the financial situation of the group was so dire. The group announced heavy losses later and some funds were clearly accumulating some short sell positions: Helikon Investments took an enormous short sell position of 4% of the capital mid September ! I bought 1000 shares at 12.90 and sold them at 13.20€. I already had a big unrealized loss and in the meantime I had only earnt 600€. But I was averaging down my position even if it's dangerous because in case the stock went back to 13 or 14€, it was my only solution to recoup my losses. Then I bought again 1000 shares at 11.70 (So in late September I had 3000 shares). At this point the stock price went down again after Orpea annouced heavy losses and a falling profitability. It's very bad for the goup, which is very indebted: According to the last reported balance sheet, Orpea had liabilities of €3.58b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €12.5b due beyond 12 months. So Orpea shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (19.2), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.6 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, Orpea saw its EBIT tank 47% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The stock price was below 10€ on October the 13th. At that point I had roughly an unrealized loss of 15000€. At that point I decided to stop averaging down my position even if I could have bought more shares. I decided to wait. Then mid October I learnt that Jp morgan bought 5% of the capital. Maybe the stock was going to rebound. At that point I didn't have to wait long. I sold 1000 stocks on October the 18th at 12.28 € (those bought at 11.70 €). Then on October the 19th, the stock price skyrocketed. Unfortunately, I sold my position in the morning, 1000 stocks at 13.65 € (+6%) and another position at 14.90 € (+16%). I knew that I was losing money doing this (positions bought at 15,1 and 17,9 €). Little did I know that the stock would be up 46%, reaching 18,88% a few hours later. Apparently, the short sellers were panicking. It was difficult to predict such a violent rise of the stock price. But it finally ended the session up 10% at 14,16€. At that point I Had no more Orpea shares, but I still had a loss of 3400 €. Today, I noticed that the stock price was up at the beginning of the trading session (up 7%), but then the short sellers have taken over and the stock price declined. I decided to buy  back 2000 shares at 13,10€. I sold them in the afternoon at 15€, earning roughly 3800€. I finally made a capital gain with Orpea (of roughly 400 €).
So you see that I took I lot of risks and I didn't earn a lot of money. Thanks to experience and tenacity I kept the head cold and didn't panick. I don't invest all my money in a single position too, even if this was a big position and if the unrealized loss was pretty big. I won't buy Orpea shares again, even if the stock price goes back to 10€. Because of the financial situation of the group, a capital increase and a dilution of existing shareholders can not be ruled out. I didn't reinvest the 44700 € I had initially invested in Orpea (17.9*1000+15.1*1000+11.7*1000 with an average purchase price of 14.9 €). After a recent rebound, I think that another correction could take place on the stock markets.

According to statistics roughly 90% of the individual investor are losing money on the stocks markets. If you are investing, I advise you to invest only if you can bear losses.

For those who doubts I did this, I put a screenshot of my trades below.

[scarface]

Note that I'm looking for a new opportunity after Orpea (note that the stock was suspended due to legal proceedings and it lost 33% today: I was right to sell everything last week).
What do you think about M6, Ubisoft or LDLC?
To put it bluntly, the Ubisoft stock was pretty expensive until recently. And shares in Ubisoft tumbled in September after it announced a deal that sees China's Tencent Holdings raise its stake in the company, a move which analysts say dampens the prospect of a full sale of the French game maker. I think that the stock will keep crumbling but you may have valuable information. As for LDLC, at the current price it becomes interesting. But jpmorgan still has shortsell positions on this stocks. Are they going to buy them back or will it fall further?

[scarface]

Well, I told you that would never touch Orpea again. With a debt burden of 9 billions euros, the firm is almost bankrupt. 
On October the 24th,France's AMF market regulator has requested the suspension of care homes company Orpea's stocks and bonds, the watchdog said on Monday, as Orpea faces legal action over allegations of malpractice at its French retirement homes. The quotation resumed on Octobre the 26th, down sharply by 40%. The new CEO Mr. Guillot explained that it was going to be necessary "to convert part of Orpea's debt into capital and to raise money again in debt and capital from investors"... Logically enough to frighten Investors. On Ctober the 26th, the title ended the session down 33%, back below 10 euros. The following day, the stock ended the session down 15% at 8.32€...The following day, that's to say last Friday, when the stock was down 7% at 7.70€, I decided to buy. I bought again a few hours later at 6.80. It wasn't long before I regretted it. The stock finished down 20% at 6.62€. I was losing 2000 €. Today, the stock collapsed rapidly. At 6 euros, I was losing 3500 €. I was a bit worried, but I decided to go back to bed since I'm not working today. When I woke up, the stock was up 18%: I sold everything and made a capital gain.
Well, this time I won't buy Orpea again. I don't know if there will be a capital increase or not. I was lucky because I sold everything on October the 20th. When the stock price skyrocketed the previous day I had already sold my positions when I understood that something was not clear. In fact, a major player probably pumped up the stock price to sell its positions: it was JP Morgan (at least JP Morgan declared to the AMF that it indirectly crossed downwards, on October 19, 2022, the thresholds of 5% of the capital and voting rights of the company Orpea, this is a weird coincidence). This could be regarded as insider dealing because they clearly knew that the AMF would request the suspension of Orpea's stocks and bonds a few days later. As you can see, to be a top trader, you need to be either lucky or well-informed. With Orpea, I wanted to take advantage of an insane volatility. The current rebound could flop by the end of the session.
I'm looking for a next move. But European markets might go down again as euro zone inflation and GDP data paints bleak picture. I'll keep you posted if I see an opportunity on the markets. This time I will choose a solid company.

[scarface]

I'm going to give you a recommendation about a stock today. And I've chosen LDLC for my next investment.
Groupe LDLC is a French Internet retailer of computer hardware and software. The Company provides PCs and servers, offers installation and technical training, and e-business development consulting services. Groupe LDLC markets to individuals and business around the world.

The stock price recently declined sharply because the latest revenues of the first half of 2022 were disappointing. But the balance sheet is clean, there is no debt, and the firm is well-managed. At the current price, this might be a buying opportunity. I took a first position at 19.90 € with a target price at 22€. At the current price, LDLC offers a yield of 8%. Note that it is a small cap, with medium liquidity.