Maher's Digital World

Financial news and stock markets.

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2015
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #250 on: October 14, 2019, 07:19 PM »
A few months ago, I wrote a message about the IPO of Uber. And I warned you about the price of the stock.
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg34225#msg34225
At this time, it was valued at 82 billion $, or 45$ per stock. I was saying that the stock was grossly overvalued and added a few articles. I'm sure Maher and Usman are still laughing about it. And in the next message, I was wondering if uber was not going to be a new snapchat, and lose 50% in the 6 following months.
So 5 months later, where is uber?
The stocks lost "only" 30% over the last 5 months, and the stock price is actually at 31$. There was probably a gross overvaluation of Uber indeed. Now the stock price still needs to lose roughly 20% to reach the first target (23$). And even at this price Uber would be probably way too expensive.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2019, 07:23 PM by scarface »

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2015
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #251 on: December 11, 2019, 06:03 AM »

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2015
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #252 on: January 07, 2020, 07:12 PM »
Note that the Dow Jones futures are now losing 360 points, indicating a possible crash for tomorrow. The s&p 500 futures are now at -2%.

Well, it's a bit odd because a few hours ago I was watching an interesting video about a man who is predicting a "megacrack" with serious arguments.

The newspaper Les Échos (owned by LVMH) published an interview with David Solomon, boss of Goldman Sachs, in which he ensures that there will be no financial crisis in 2020. Olivier Piacentini strongly disagrees with these allegations on the basis of various indicators of the global economy.
First, he says that corporate debts are very high (and it's a much bigger threat than the trade war). Then he says that the actions of central banks made asset bubbles. And he says that at the end of 2007, the newspaper les Echos already released an article stating there would be no financial crisis, 2 months before it actually broke out.
It's difficult to know if Olivier Piacentini will be right, or not. However, I advise those who are interested in stock markets, like shadow.97, to be careful.
As I said earlier you can still buy Gold or Silver. Since my advice a few days ago, when Silver was below 18$, it already rose by 3 percent (currently at 18.6$). I have a target above 20$ for Silver. Btw, I have Silver ingots and many gold coins, in a bank safe, in Paris.
Well, I'm going to tell shadow.97 the truth: I don't know if the Swedish stock markets is overvalued actually. And I don't care. But as far as the American markets are concerned, they are expensive. US Analysts are expecting...a 10% rise in earnings for 2020, just to "justify" current valuations. When we know that earnings decreased by 0,3% in the US in both the 3rd and 4rd quarter of 2019, I'm not sure this forecast will be met.

Here is the video with Piacentini, talking about "a megacrack" (in French).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeLgN_UhG1c



Note that the installers of MKVtoolnix, Libreoffice and handbrake were updated on the forum.
Note that I made a much smaller repack for the Frictionalgames. For the moment this repack is not available, it's still experimental since I modified some dds files (the textures) with a new program. I will release it if it works.
I will try this program on Crysis 3 too see if it works, since it uses dds files too.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2020, 07:16 PM by scarface »

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2015
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #253 on: January 28, 2020, 05:50 PM »
Tonight, I'm going to talk about the financial markets.


Yesterday, we have seen a sell-off on the s&p 500 and in Europe due to the Coronavirus. Now, what's next?

Maybe some of you watched the video I posted a few days ago with Howard Marks who was giving his opinion about the stock markets. This new video explains the stance of Howard Marks when he says that the odds are not in the investors’ favour. This video is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWb0XZmozno
I'm talking about it because I agree with Howard Marks. Asset prices can go higher, but generally speaking, everything is expensive. And it's particularly true for the US stock markets.
For instance, let's talk about Apple. Its earnings are impressive. But the stock price doubled last year. And yet, earnings didn't increase. The sales of Apple Smartphones even decreased in 2019 compared to 2018.

Let's take another indicator: to gauge stock market valuations, investor Warren Buffett focuses on the market capitalization of all publicly-traded U.S. stocks to U.S. GDP, calling, this "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment". Right now, this ratio is at an all-time record high of 153%!, even higher than at the peak of the Dotcom bubble (146%). At 70% to 80%, it is safe to put money in stocks. At 100%, there is danger. At 140%, there is extreme danger (article here: https://www.ccn.com/buffett-indicator-warns-stocks-doomed-worse-crash-than-2008/)

All this doesn't mean that stocks are going to crash tomorrow. However, should the s&p 500 go back to a ratio of 70% of gdp, it would go to 1600 points.

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2015
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #254 on: February 21, 2020, 09:15 AM »
Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of the stock markets.

The s&p 500 is down 1%. After yesterday' sudden "flash crash", it's the second day in a row that we are seeing a significant correction. I think some investors are beginning to leave the stock markets: they are expensive and coronavirus is going to hit earnings. In this context, The cac 40 is also down 0.85%.
Silver and gold are soaring.


Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2015
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #255 on: February 24, 2020, 04:29 AM »
Note that a little crack is currently taking place on the stock markets. On the short term the markets could rebound, but I'm expecting them to go lower.

« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 04:32 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2015
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #256 on: February 24, 2020, 11:00 AM »
After market closing for the cac 40.
It's certainly not over, I think the markets could still lose 10% or more.


Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2015
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #257 on: February 25, 2020, 04:44 AM »
Here is a brief overview of the stock markets.

After yesterday's sell-off the cac 40 is headed lower in the current context, losing 0.92%. I expect the s&p 500 to keep coming down in the coming days or weeks too.

Smcp tumbled 22% in 2 days due to the coronavirus and the closing of shops in China. Losses are now expected.
There could a rebound of the stock price on the short term, but in the middle term the stock remains in a downtrend.


Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2015
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #258 on: February 26, 2020, 08:12 AM »
Today, I'm going to give you a quick insight into the stock markets.

Those who bought some smcp stocks, as advise above, are currently earning big bucks: the stock is up 8%. I bought some stocks yesterday and I sold them. If you haven't bought smcp yesterday, I don't advise you to buy today since the situation in Asia and the expected losses don't give a significant upside potential to this stock.
The US stock markets are going to open higher today. However, if there could be a rebound in the short term, I'm still bearish for the s&p 500, with a first target at 3050 points.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 08:15 AM by scarface »

Offline scarface

  • *****
  • 2015
Re: Financial news and stock markets.
« Reply #259 on: February 26, 2020, 10:53 AM »
Note that Shares of Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK, are tumbling 22.26% in the NYSE, after the oil and gas company reported a narrower than expected fourth-quarter loss but revenue that fell more than expected.
This doesn't bode well for the sector of the American shale oil.

Chesapeake Energy is almost bankrupt. The company swung to a net loss of $346 million, or 18 cents a share, from a profit of $576 million, or 57 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding non-recurring items, the adjusted loss per share was 4 cents, beating the FactSet consensus of 6 cents. Revenue fell 31% to $1.93 billion, missing the FactSet consensus of $2.02 billion, as oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) revenue fell 44% to $969 million. Average daily production rose to 477,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) from 464,000 BOE, while average prices fell. The company is reducing its 2020 capital expenditure budget by about 30% to $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion from $2.25 billion spent in 2019. The stock had already tumbled 25.5% over the past three months, while the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF XLE has dropped 16.8% and the S&P 500 has slipped 0.4%.