Financial news and stock markets.

[scarface]

The financial markets shifted from being sino-beatific to sino-panicked.
The Dax30 and cac40 are currently losing 1,7%.




Maybe it’s due to the launch by North Korea of an Hydrogen Bomb yesterday, in a test site in the northeast part of the country.

[scarface]

Well, tonight the Dow jones is literally collapsing. Well, I told you a few days ago that below17000 the dow jones could end up like a sausage, I hope you did not take some bullish positions. And after a steep decline today, the dax and cac40 futures are already bright red.

It's certainly linked with the stampede on the Chinese markets, and with the geopolitical situation. The escalating tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the belligerent behavior of North Korea are really disquieting. And I don't even talk about the Islamic State which is acting up in Libya. In Sirte,  most of the population has fled the town. And yet, there would be some humanitarian work for these soldiers in Syria: there is a famine in the West of Syria and some people are scavenging for food, including dogs and cats, in an effort to feed themselves. Of course, there has been a fatwa since it's forbidden in Islam.
And today in France, for the birthday of the attacks of Charlie Hebdo, a man attacked a police station in the 18th arrondissement of Paris with a knife. Allegedly, he was wearing a fake explosive belt and pledged allegiance to daech. He has been the only casualty of his attack.

[scarface]

In China the markets bounced back this night, after the flash crash the day before. In Europe the markets seemed to be relieved but the cac40 is now losing 0,35%. I'm afraid the rebound of the markets might be temporary.
To follow the cac40 in real time, here is a link: http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/

[scarface]

Well, finally the European markets fell today. As I was saying earlier, the collapse in the stock markets is probably not over.
Maybe I will hold a conference this week end to talk about this.

[scarface]

This evening, I’m going to talk about the economic context, about the collapse in financial markets and finally we’ll what kind of investments makes sense.



There was the year 2015 with the aligned planets: cheap oil, weak euro and negative interest rates. This favorable alignment was to boost growth in Europe and France. But growth did not come. And now that the year 2016 barely begun, this precarious order is already threatened. Three black stars are arising, while the World Bank has already lowered its global growth forecast for 2016 to 2.9% (against a 3.3% forecast in June).

The first threat comes from China, which had to close the Shanghai Stock Exchange, on Thursday, January 7, for the second time since the beginning of the year after a sharp drop. The second World economy is broken down, and Beijing is about to embark on a currency war. The yuan, which was supposed to appreciate gradually as the Chinese economy was growing, is at its lowest in five years against the $. The dilemma is strong in Beijing. On one hand, the Conservatives are in favor of a slide of the currency that would enable public firms to regain competitiveness with it and avoid laying off massively. On the other, the moderns feel that companies need to restructure and that a sharp devaluation would be only a temporary anesthetic. If the slide of the yuan, of more than 5% since the summer, accelerates, it is a true global currency war that China is going to trigger, to regain its role as the world's factory. This offensive will probably not remain unanswered in Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia.

The second threat is Saudi Arabia. It floods the planet  with oil ad deflated prices, to impoverish its Iranian enemy and drive some US producers of shale gas out of the market. When the price of crude goes down from $ 115 to $ 70, cheap energy boosts growth. Beyond, the negative effects outweigh the positive effects because they affect too many producer countries, plagued by political and social unrests, which drastically reduce their imports.

The third danger is the US Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates in late December. Free and limitless money that had prevailed since the terrible 2008 crisis, is over. And that's good. However, the credit crunch involves significant risks, including that of a long-term rate hike. A bond market crash would affect the major emerging countries, such as Brazil, stuffed with dollar debts, and hamper investments.

What’s more, other threats are looming over the world economy.
In Libya chaos deepens as the country is divided, it has 2 parliaments . And yet it was the richest country of Africa before the fall of Kadhafi in 2011. But Libya is also going broke.That last tidbit should be surprising. Libya has Africa’s largest oil reserves and has long been an important supplier of light sweet crude, the kind made into gasoline and kerosene. It also had tons of money in both hoards of cash reserves and investments across the globe.But the oil, which used to bring in 96 percent of the country’s income, is not flowing anymore. From a high of at least 1.6 million barrels per day at the beginning of 2011, Libya is lucky to export a fourth of that today.And the scope of Islamic State’s attacks on Libya’s eastern oil ports expanded on Wednesday, Libyan officials said, with at least five oil tanks set on fire.



In this context, the financial markets have plunged since the beginning of the year.
The cac 40 lost 7% and practically 15% since the end of November, standing at 4333 points.


Likewise the Dow Jones lost 1500 points since the end of November. As for the Stockholm stock exchange, shadow97 asked my opinion during summer. I hope my advice to sell didn’t go unheard, it fell from 1650 to 1350.

[scarface]

Today, after a session essentially spent in positive territory, the cac40 finally ended lower.
Yesterday, the Shanghai stock exchange lost 5%.

[scarface]

Wall Street is crumbling tonight, now losing 340 points. If things are not changing, the opening of the European markets is going to be interesting tomorrow.


If I had to choose something, well, I would buy the stock Accor, a leading hotel group listed in the cac 40...
But I would keep avoiding utilities (gas and oil providers) as well as cyclical sectors such as banks in the current context.

[scarface]

On these levels, maybe some users are buying some stocks. Or maybe they have some unrealized losses, I'm thinking of shadow97 and fuj, I don't know why...
But in my opinion, the slide is going to continue, I would wait for a sell-off, and possibly a crack, before buying some stocks. At least I'm not buying anything for the moment. And btw, the market is still expensive.

[scarface]

A few months ago, I talked about the stock Arcelormital (the name Arcelormetal would suit it best).
http://www.nomaher.com/forum/index.php?topic=3226.msg19233;topicseen#msg19233

Well, I think it was an enlightened opinion: ArcelorMittal lost 21.66% since 1 January and is the biggest drop in the CAC40. The metallurgist, which had already lost 57% of its value last year, is still very affected by the renewed uncertainty on the economic situation of the Chinese industry...

[Shadow.97]

On these levels, maybe some users are buying some stocks. Or maybe they have some unrealized losses, I'm thinking of shadow97 and fuj, I don't know why...
But in my opinion, the slide is going to continue, I would wait for a sell-off, and possibly a crack, before buying some stocks. At least I'm not buying anything for the moment. And btw, the market is still expensive.

Yep I just bought some stocks